Bluemour Melting Pot XIX - Give Me Ed Baby - Return of the Prodigal Son

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It isn't just us who struggle to regularly pick decent players with 3rd round selections. If we got 40 games and 60 plus goals out of Betts with 39 it would better than the average for a pick in that range.


A low third round draft pick in 39, is not what you pay for a rising 34 year old (in 2020) - no matter how much we love and adore him (and I do ;) )
 
Jarrod Cameron went 39 last year, Nathan Murphy the year before, Josh Battle in 2016, Rhys Mathieson in 2015 & Declan Hamilton in 2014 - I don't think 39 is that much to give up.

Oh it is, plenty plenty of good players get taken around that point of the draft including a bloke with a dirty merkin that plays for the Hawks who I still cannot understand how he lasted that far into the draft
 
A low third round draft pick in 39, is not what you pay for a rising 34 year old (in 2020) - no matter how much we love and adore him (and I do ;) )

It won't cost a third round pick. Adelaide will be glad just to shed $500-600k cap space if he decides to leave.
 

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How many did Lang, Deluca, Gibbons or Polson kick against the 8 finalists?
Gibbons kicked 8 goals in 9 games against this year's finalists. Darcy Lang 2 in 4 but was more a defensive high half forward. Cam polson played one game against a final 8 team for no goals. So Eddie 1.1 goals per game and gibbo 0.88 goals per game.
 
Oh it is, plenty plenty of good players get taken around that point of the draft including a bloke with a dirty merkin that plays for the Hawks who I still cannot understand how he lasted that far into the draft
Define "plenty" - is it 8 of 10? 2 of 10? 5 of 10?

Without doing the figures I would say only a small percentage (less than 20%) of players taken 3rd round or later end up playing 40 games and kick 60 goals. I would think there is an 80% chance we would get that out of Betts.
 
Gibbons kicked 8 goals in 9 games against this year's finalists. Darcy Lang 2 in 4 but was more a defensive high half forward. Cam polson played one game against a final 8 team for no goals. So Eddie 1.1 goals per game and gibbo 0.88 goals per game.
14 games between the 3 for 1 less goal than Eddie in 10. Pretty clear Eddie would make our team better.
 

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A low third round draft pick in 39, is not what you pay for a rising 34 year old (in 2020) - no matter how much we love and adore him (and I do ;) )

Maybe not, but if we did pay that the stats suggest we would be unlikely to lose out. I believe we only need 2 solid years from Betts to beat the probable return on a third round pick.
 
Thanks for that

7 from 33 or 21% have got past 100 games, only 3 of 33 or 9% have been AA. Battle or Cameron could improve that but even if you removed them the percentages aren't great.

I think that justifies my opinion that we are more likely to get a good return from Betts than from going to the draft.
being right, folks, like gold but more important.............
 
Thanks for that

7 from 33 or 21% have got past 100 games, only 3 of 33 or 9% have been AA. Battle or Cameron could improve that but even if you removed them the percentages aren't great.

I think that justifies my opinion that we are more likely to get a good return from Betts than from going to the draft.
No. You should look at pick 39 and later to for that analysis to actually be worthwhile. As you're comparing Betts to all players available at pick 39.
 
Jarrod Cameron went 39 last year, Nathan Murphy the year before, Josh Battle in 2016, Rhys Mathieson in 2015 & Declan Hamilton in 2014 - I don't think 39 is that much to give up.

It is in the context that he could easily be had for Pick 80.

He is almost 33.
He wants out of Adelaide.
He wants to come to Carlton.
Adelaide don't want to play him in the seniors.
Adelaide don't want to pay him $600k next year.
Carlton have other small forward options that can be acquired.

All signs point to it being a mutually beneficial trade for a token pick. The pick itself isn't what is important to Adelaide, it's the cap relief. They won't get that cap relief if they demand a top 50 pick (or even a top 70 pick) for a 33yo small forward.

Might even be done for a minor pick swap that suits both parties - ie. Adelaide only have 3 picks in this draft, 3, 21 and 26, they may swap a future third rounder and Betts for one of our third rounders, freeing them up to package 21 and 26 for a higher draft pick.

End of the day - just because you'd be happy to get a Betts-type return for Pick 39, that doesn't make it a smart trade in the circumstances. We can absolutely have our cake and eat it too.
 
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