Bluemour Melting Pot XXII

[BlueGum]

There's a guy at Queenscliff music festival who has "Save Ferris" on his t-shirt. Which one of you is it?

 

[bmaurizio]

Push comes to shove, you give SOS pick 6 in last years draft, we're probably taking one of Smith, Caldwell or King.

Rankings can always be manipulated to justify a trade.

Your right rankings are so variable pending on whichever expert’s assessment.
It’s difficult there’s a lot of luck involved too external factors, family, location, physical and mental maturity & skill level of individual concerned.
One thing is glaringly obvious we’re so fortunate to have selected Sam Walsh in 2018 draft what a great ambassador for CFC and AFL.
and yet so many ridiculous comments about , Sam skill level, game time impact , he’ll be an absolute Champion unfortunately too few like Sam play footy.

 

[tencentpiece]

Why pay pick 9 for a player when you could use a later draft pick and get something of value thrown in as well? I think some of you are completely missing the point.

 

[tragic]

Why pay pick 9 for a player when you could use a later draft pick and get something of value thrown in as well? I think some of you are completely missing the point.

Hopefully one of our top 5 is still there at 9 and we don't need to pull the trade down trigger!

 

[HBF]

I can understand the attraction and endless speculation associated with trading down to get two players for the price of one, but I have my doubts SOS’s preferred player will be available in the 15-25 range.

More likely it will be a slider that will only just makes it to pick 9. And we all know that quality trumps quantity every time.

If anything I can see SOS trading 2020 picks and 43 to get back into the 2nd round.

Think i'd rather take 9 as well. All of these trading down scenarios are doing my head in.

 

[HBF]

Excuse my ignorance (FWIW not many people do....)

But can anyone tell me what position Simmo played in under 18’s?

Why did we draft him?

Only Thy is old enough to recall when Simmo was playing juniors.....

 

[tencentpiece]

So your point is instead of picking the best available at 9 SOS should take the chance that this same player is available as a late first rounder, so he can get an extra pick in the 3rd round (or whatever). I hope that's not your point.

The only way I can see trading down being an advantage is if there were 5-6 players at 9 that were very hard to split and it was almost certain one of them would get through to the later pick. I just find that highly unlikely.

**** me, who said anything about getting an extra pick in the 3rd round? We have a list of players that we want to get at 9, if none of those are available the next set of players are expected to go significantly later in the draft. There is next to no point in reaching for them at pick 9, so why not downgrade and pick up an extra future first instead?

Clubs don't just have a list of players 1 through 100, there is also thought put into the differences between those picks. For example our top 5 players might be ranked 90+/100 and then the next set of players might drop dramatically to 75+/100 and so on. Clubs also have a good idea of where players are likely to end up in the draft.

People thought picking up pick 19 was a smart move, but you can do the exact same thing in reverse and still do very very well.

 

[Eiffel 65]

Why pay pick 9 for a player when you could use a later draft pick and get something of value thrown in as well? I think some of you are completely missing the point.

No, we get what you're saying.

Trading is very situational and someone's opinion on whether they would trade down may change based on availability of players and the trade proposal itself.

If you were telling me we rate say Kemp in the top 5 this year, but we think he could be available at Port's pick 12, so we're proposing to trade pick 9 to Port for 12 and something extra, everyone would be supportive of that.

If, however, you trade down and can't get the player you rate in the top 5 and take two completely different guys you rate around the 20 mark on your board, that's a completely different scenario altogether. Same with trading for a future pick and a second round selection this year.

You need to weigh up whether having a second bite of the cherry holds greater value than the potential upside of the top 5 draft prospect. As we've seen with Papley and Coniglio, it's very hard to bring star players across to your club via the trade table. You need to give yourself the best opportunity to draft them.

We know you can't give any further information and we wouldn't expect any. But a more definitive trade proposal may swap people's thoughts on the matter

 

[tencentpiece]

We know you can't give any further information and we wouldn't expect any. But a more definitive trade proposal may swap people's thoughts on the matter

Sure. This is purely hypothetical but let's say our top 5-6 is as follows:

Anderson
Rowell
Green
Serong
Stephens
Henry

If any of those are available at pick 9, we take them. If not, we look at trading down because the next players in our list are:

Sam De Koning
Will Gould
Hysaiah Pickett


Now do you want the club to reach for players in that second list, or would the smart thing be to trade down and pick up one of them plus get a very good pick the following year. Sure you might not get the #1 option in your second list, but you will almost certainly get one of your choices.

 

[Eiffel 65]

Sure. This is purely hypothetical but let's say our top 5-6 is as follows:

Anderson
Rowell
Green
Serong
Stephens
Henry

If any of those are available at pick 9, we take them. If not, we look at trading down because the next players in our list are:

Sam De Koning
Will Gould
Hysaiah Pickett


Now do you want the club to reach for players in that second list, or would the smart thing be to trade down and pick up one of them plus get a very good pick the following year. Sure you might not get the #1 option in your second list, but you will almost certainly get one of your choices.

In context of that hypothetical and based on what you've written in the posts above, you'd trade down and acquire something extra.

I'm a big fan of what SOS has done with the list. Brought in top end talent through the draft and not compromised the list build to accommodate the 'big fish'.

I'll back his judgement. As will most other Carlton supporters

 

[Benaly28]

Whilst there are varied opinions on this years draft I don’t think we should get involved in next years as it is highly compromised.If we could trade our future first (which we can’t) id do that as well.As we’ve been told by the ITKs that we wouldn’t use our first pick,just use it now,pick the best to fill our needs and move on.

One of Serong,Stephens,Kemp will do.

 

[Blue and Silver]

You can trade for a future pick and then trade that pick for another pick. Or a player. Or an even more future pick.

You aren't locked in to drafting with it next year.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[Nori]

fu** me, who said anything about getting an extra pick in the 3rd round? We have a list of players that we want to get at 9, if none of those are available the next set of players are expected to go significantly later in the draft. There is next to no point in reaching for them at pick 9, so why not downgrade and pick up an extra future first instead?

Clubs don't just have a list of players 1 through 100, there is also thought put into the differences between those picks. For example our top 5 players might be ranked 90+/100 and then the next set of players might drop dramatically to 75+/100 and so on. Clubs also have a good idea of where players are likely to end up in the draft.

People thought picking up pick 19 was a smart move, but you can do the exact same thing in reverse and still do very very well.

Maybe you didn't read my (or whatever). To me it makes no difference if the something extra is this year or next year.

Sure, in the very unlikely scenario that pick 9 won't get a top tier pick and the 2nd tier are likely to go late in the 1st round why not trade down for something extra. But SOS said after the Papley trade fell through that we should be able to get a very good player at pick 9, so I'm happy to take him at his word.

 

[Robertio]

There's a guy at Queenscliff music festival who has "Save Ferris" on his t-shirt. Which one of you is it?

Got to be Ferris.

 

[HaydossJ]

Sure. This is purely hypothetical but let's say our top 5-6 is as follows:

Anderson
Rowell
Green
Serong
Stephens
Henry

If any of those are available at pick 9, we take them. If not, we look at trading down because the next players in our list are:

Sam De Koning
Will Gould
Hysaiah Pickett


Now do you want the club to reach for players in that second list, or would the smart thing be to trade down and pick up one of them plus get a very good pick the following year. Sure you might not get the #1 option in your second list, but you will almost certainly get one of your choices.

So, using this example, we rate De Koning, Gould and Pickett ahead of Ash, Young, Kemp etc?

 

[swuzzlebubble]

So, using this example, we rate De Koning, Gould and Pickett ahead of Ash, Young, Kemp etc?

No in the tencentpiece example we just don't rate that Ash group high enough to take at 9, compared to potential return of trading down.

 

[Eiffel 65]

No in the tencentpiece example we just don't rate that Ash group high enough to take at 9, compared to potential return of trading down.

Correct. That's the way I read it.

 

[smashbox gill]

If sos thinks it’s best then so do I.

Maybe we trade down to say pick 17 and a future 1st.

Take cooper Stephens with 17.
Then use that future 1st to get Caldwell from GWS.

I’m sure most people would prefer that than reaching for a player with pick 9?

 

[Nori]

No in the tencentpiece example we just don't rate that Ash group high enough to take at 9, compared to potential return of trading down.

Which effectively means there would be a huge gap after the tier 1 players to where the tier 2 rated players would be selected. So the implication is that Carlton either don't rate approx half of the players that would be taken in the first round, or they rate them all pretty much the same and are therefore happy to pick one up late.

It make for endless discussion but I'll sleep well in the expectation that SOS uses pick 9 to secure a top liner.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Which effectively means there would be a huge gap after the tier 1 players to where the tier 2 rated players would be selected. So the implication is that Carlton either don't rate approx half of the players that would be taken in the first round, or they rate them all pretty much the same and are therefore happy to pick one up late.

It make for endless discussion but I'll sleep well in the expectation that SOS uses pick 9 to secure a top liner.

It might not even be too a big difference.
To twist the above example slightly, say the Ash group is 4 or 5 players, and Port are offering 12 + something.
We'd know at least one of that Ash group has to be there at 12 and we'd have gained the 'something'.

 

[Stefchook]

I often skim through this thread rather than actually reading it. But some really good recent discussion.

 

[ferrisb]

There's a guy at Queenscliff music festival who has "Save Ferris" on his t-shirt. Which one of you is it?

Whomever it was, I appreciate the support...

 

[ferrisb]

There's a guy at Queenscliff music festival who has "Save Ferris" on his t-shirt. Which one of you is it?

I have one

Got to be Ferris.

It wasn't me

 

[Robertio]

I have one



It wasn't me

What was the music like?

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

What was the music like?

He got booed off stage for telling too many jokes between songs.