Opinion Bottom 4 and top 4 teams in 3 years

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Pavlovs Cat said:
No I didn't Bill. I just think some of these sides that get stuck in the middle a bit could eventually get overtaken by some of the teams that are down there now. I reckon Brisbane will take an extra year than Melbourne and that Melbourne will take an extra year than the Bullies and the Giants. I can't even pick a winner of course so there you go.....
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Well its a good read and goes well with your list.
 

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Bailey01 said:
No bias at all
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In three years I suspect every player who played in 2-3 premierships excluding Selwood will be gone. We have the best development system in the AFL, very good depth unlike your side hence why we both are missing 6-8 players but my team is 6-1 and yours isn't. With Geelong it's a two sided team because we have our prem players and then we have our youth which is like GWS/GCS/Port because they're so young.
 
Rainfall said:
In three years I suspect every player who played in 2-3 premierships excluding Selwood will be gone. We have the best development system in the AFL, very good depth unlike your side hence why we both are missing 6-8 players but my team is 6-1 and yours isn't. With Geelong it's a two sided team because we have our prem players and then we have our youth which is like GWS/GCS/Port because they're so young.
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We aren't that bad, I bet you aren't missing your best key forward and your best key defender. We have got some quality young players coming through at the moment, so I think we will be fine.
 
Bailey01 said:
No bias at all
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I'd say it's pretty close to the mark, actually.

It's not biased to dispute every *prediction* that has your club in the bottom four?
 
BigVic said:
Top 4
Gold Coast
West Coast
Port Adelaide
North Melbourne

Bottom 4
St Kilda
Brisbane
Essendon
Carlton
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Just re reading the first posts from 2010 and wow, are most of those predictions completely wrong! I like the above list, somewhere around my current thinking.

I think since the addition of the last two teams and also free agency plus the dropping of priority picks, it has become much harder to rebuild a list. The rebuilds are now slower than in the past and currently as fast as you add good new kids the older players retire at about the same rate meaning your list doesn't improve significantly.

I get a feeling that clubs currently at the bottom and those with ageing lists like Carlton are in for an extended period at the bottom. Don't forget that GWS can field a full team of top 20 picks so if they ever get their act together they could be a powerhouse for a decade. Not sure where I place them in three years but they could be scary.

As for my beloved Crows, the four lost Tippett picks and the nil return for Tippett himself will doom us to midfield for a decade :-(
 
Top 4:

Gold Coast - will be scary. Best midfield in the comp and their defence and forwards will be up there. Dynasty potential.
Greater Western Sydney - ditto. Defence possibly iffy, but you'd like to think one of those first-round talls come good and their forward line should be better than the Suns and their midfield has better depth.
Collingwood - just look very solid throughout. When will they ever bottom out?
Port Adelaide - will still be very good, all of their current midfield bar their taggers will still be around and Hinkley is quickly becoming one of the games' best coaches. Only worry is their forward line - do Butcher, Shaw and Harvey have what it takes? Will Westhoff and Schulz still be good?

Bottom 4:

Fremantle - a big call, but their KPP's are aging, and from what I saw with St Kilda Lyon doesn't develop youth well. They're going to be quite reliant on Fyfe, Barlow and their small brigade.
St Kilda - still rebuilding. They have some promising youth, but their 20-30 age group looks very threadbare.
Brisbane - ditto. Better 20-30 age group but they have some pretty big holes to fill. The club environment also looks pretty bad.
Carlton - the only club I don't think there's much to like. List looks ordinary, and they're still reliant on their older guys. Not a lot of youth to get really excited about either.

I think the ladder could be anything. I reckon the expansion clubs will dominate and Carlton will really struggle, but there's not that much dividing the other 15 clubs.
 
Top Four 2016:
Gold Coast - Going to be scary, a lot better side than GWS
Port Adelaide - Currently young, fit and have stacks of ability.
Hawthorn - Their second coming of youth should keep them in the hunt; Hodge, Mitchell, Gibson, Roughead & Burgoyne hungry to win a flag and retire.
Melbourne - Big call but if you can give three years of experience Melbourne's youth: Watts, Howe, McDonald, Viney, Trengrove, Grimes, Hogan, Tyson, Toumpas, Salem. Throw in Jones, Jamar, Garland, Dawes, Frawley and Vince and you've got quite the side.

Bottom Four:
Carlton - Reliant upon ageing "stars" who can't run with the better sides
Brisbane - not much going for them, Brown retires and they fall into a deeper hole
Bulldogs - too many holes need filling, key forwards + defenders don't grow on tree's
Adelaide - Top players: Thompson, Betts, J-Pod, Rutten, Douglas, Van Berlo have retired and Dangerfields long gone.
 

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#domtysonforpm said:
Top Four 2016:
Gold Coast - Going to be scary, a lot better side than GWS
Port Adelaide - Currently young, fit and have stacks of ability.
Hawthorn - Their second coming of youth should keep them in the hunt; Hodge, Mitchell, Gibson, Roughead & Burgoyne hungry to win a flag and retire.
Melbourne - Big call but if you can give three years of experience Melbourne's youth: Watts, Howe, McDonald, Viney, Trengrove, Grimes, Hogan, Tyson, Toumpas, Salem. Throw in Jones, Jamar, Garland, Dawes, Frawley and Vince and you've got quite the side.

Bottom Four:
Carlton - Reliant upon ageing "stars" who can't run with the better sides
Brisbane - not much going for them, Brown retires and they fall into a deeper hole
Bulldogs - too many holes need filling, key forwards + defenders don't grow on tree's
Adelaide - Top players: Thompson, Betts, J-Pod, Rutten, Douglas, Van Berlo have retired and Dangerfields long gone.
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This seems strangely familiar, almost as if we hear something similar every 3 years...
 
#domtysonforpm said:
Top Four 2016:
Gold Coast - Going to be scary, a lot better side than GWS
Port Adelaide - Currently young, fit and have stacks of ability.
Hawthorn - Their second coming of youth should keep them in the hunt; Hodge, Mitchell, Gibson, Roughead & Burgoyne hungry to win a flag and retire.
Melbourne - Big call but if you can give three years of experience Melbourne's youth: Watts, Howe, McDonald, Viney, Trengrove, Grimes, Hogan, Tyson, Toumpas, Salem. Throw in Jones, Jamar, Garland, Dawes, Frawley and Vince and you've got quite the side.

Bottom Four:
Carlton - Reliant upon ageing "stars" who can't run with the better sides
Brisbane - not much going for them, Brown retires and they fall into a deeper hole
Bulldogs - too many holes need filling, key forwards + defenders don't grow on tree's
Adelaide - Top players: Thompson, Betts, J-Pod, Rutten, Douglas, Van Berlo have retired and Dangerfields long gone.
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LOL Grimes is 25. Give him too many year's and he's retired.
Jamar is 30 now, will he still be playing in 3 years? Vince is 28.
You might need to fast track it.
 
SaintsSeptember said:
LOL Grimes is 25. Give him too many year's and he's retired.
Jamar is 30 now, will he still be playing in 3 years? Vince is 28.
You might need to fast track it.
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  1. LOL.. Grimes would be 28 is that too old? I wouldn't have thought so..
  2. Jamar will be gone, but Gawn is an exciting prospect with his height and mobility.
  3. So Bernie Vince will be 31, not exactly washed up. Okeefe won the Norm Smith at 30 years old.
Melbourne are not the basket case that they were last year, hypothetically.. currently they're 2 wins out of the Top 8, if they had of beat GWS and StKilda like they should have they'd be knocking right on the door. Im not by any means saying that Melbourne are a finals team this season.

Another season passes by, natural development takes place and they progress further up the ladder. Then comes season 2016 when the majority of their high draft picks are entering their prime.
 
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#domtysonforpm said:
Top Four 2016:
Melbourne - Big call but if you can give three years of experience Melbourne's youth: Watts, Howe, McDonald, Viney, Trengrove, Grimes, Hogan, Tyson, Toumpas, Salem. Throw in Jones, Jamar, Garland, Dawes, Frawley and Vince and you've got quite the side.

Bottom Four:

Bulldogs - too many holes need filling, key forwards + defenders don't grow on tree's
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You have the Dees in the top four based on natural progression of youth with experience but the Dogs in the bottom four despite Wallis, Bontempelli, Dahlhaus, Stringer, Wood, Macrae, Smith, Tutt, Roberts (KPP), Jones (KPP), Liberatore, Honeychurch, Roughead (KPP), Hrovat, Stevens, Hunter, Prudden, and Talia (KPP) all having an extra 3 years experience? Throwing in Grant, Crameri, Griffen, Cooney, Minson, Morris etc.

In case you don't know, Roberts and Roughead are swingman key defenders, with Roughead likely to end up playing forward (after what's been a very successful stint down back), Talia is a permanent key defender who has shown a lot but has some way to go and likewise with Jones as a key forward, who just needs to get his head right. They'll draft or trade for a young KPP at the end of the year, too. There's quite a lot of tall, top end talent in this year's crop.

Not having a go or anything and I know it does look petty because it is my side I'm sticking up for, but it's an unusual decision to put the Bulldogs in the bottom four given the precedent you set when you had Melbourne in the top four.
 
#domtysonforpm said:
  1. LOL.. Grimes would be 28 is that too old? I wouldn't have thought so..
  2. Jamar will be gone, but Gawn is an exciting prospect with his height and mobility.
  3. So Bernie Vince will be 31, not exactly washed up. Okeefe won the Norm Smith at 30 years old.
Melbourne are not the basket case that they were last year, hypothetically.. currently they're 2 wins out of the Top 8, if they had of beat GWS and StKilda like they should have they'd be knocking right on the door. Im not by any means saying that Melbourne are a finals team this season.

Another season passes by, natural development takes place and they progress further up the ladder. Then comes season 2016 when the majority of their high draft picks are entering their prime.
Click to expand...
You need to rant about the Dees on the bay.
 
Top 4 in 2016
Gold Coast: scary young midfield full of 20-23 YOs right now, their young key forwards are starting to come good as well and they shouldn't have too many flight risks if they have a successful period.
Port Adelaide: will just keep on getting better, good system and a bulk of players will still be in the right age block, they need to find a young key forward though as Schultz and Westhoff are getting older and Butcher seems to be a spud.
Sydney: their midfield is still fairly young, most of their key players will be in the 25-30 range, they just have to find a couple of young key defenders to replace Richards/LRT etc and they'll be a force all over the park, they're loaded with young ruck stocks also who will start to get game time.
Collingwood: if their youth are holding the fort down back right now their future is in safe hands, they'll have plenty of guys waiting in the wings to replace Swanny and Ball. Jamie Elliot could be 1 of the best players in the competition by then.

Bottom 4
St Kilda: will still be rebuilding, too much on Riewoldt, Hayes and Montagna atm. Steven is a gun and is their only consistent young performer and will probably be their next captain, Hickey looks good but they need to get rid of the older blokes not doing much etc Schneider, Gilbert and put time into the kids which they seem to be doing which is good for them. They should start to come good in 2017-18 though.
Carlton: LOL they can only decline from where they are now unless they take the mediocrity route that North has took, too many list cloggers at the joint and the only KP stocks worth mentioning for the future right now is Henderson, Jamison and Kreuzer if he ever gets his body right. They have some youngsters coming up through the VFL but Mick has no confidence in them and would rather play list cloggers/defensive minded types, can only see Menzel being a player of the future right now
WCE: Glass, Cox, Priddis etc gorn or on last legs, who will step up to the plate? Will the whole club shake off their injury proneness? Will they develop more multi dimensional players?

I really could not predict another struggler though right now, Brisbane should improve, most of their key players are under 25 like Rockliff, Redden and Rich. Hanley and Leuenberger ain't too old either (not sure if they're 25-26 now though). GWS should be getting it right by about now and pushing up the ladder with their talent and could probably land a player or 2 by then with their abundance of talent to negotiate at the trade table and COLA. Melbourne should improve with the systems Roos has put in place, the Dogs should improve if they land a KPF and will have natural improvement in the younger group, don't know if McCartney will be there still by then though.
 
#domtysonforpm said:
  1. LOL.. Grimes would be 28 is that too old? I wouldn't have thought so..
  2. Jamar will be gone, but Gawn is an exciting prospect with his height and mobility.
  3. So Bernie Vince will be 31, not exactly washed up. Okeefe won the Norm Smith at 30 years old.
Melbourne are not the basket case that they were last year, hypothetically.. currently they're 2 wins out of the Top 8, if they had of beat GWS and StKilda like they should have they'd be knocking right on the door. Im not by any means saying that Melbourne are a finals team this season.

Another season passes by, natural development takes place and they progress further up the ladder. Then comes season 2016 when the majority of their high draft picks are entering their prime.
Click to expand...

Cale Morton -
Jack Watts -yeah OK
Scully -gone
Trengove -will he be extraoridinary
Toumpas - will he be extraordinary.
Hogan wont be in his prime yet. Nowhere near.

Thats not a majority is it?
 
In three years top 4 no order

GWS this club will be in it's 6th season of footy, now if you read a prospectus you'll find that this is the beginning of a players peak, which last for a period of 5-6 more years, scary prospect.

Gold Coast as above, however, in their 7th season.

Port Adelaide this list is surprisingly young, at the moment barely a couple of months older than the Gold Coast.

North Melbourne, at some point this talented list will just have to get it together.

Bottom 4

Adelaide, this is due to the loss of draft picks

Essendon, as above, although less affected, I feel that the hole left by Fletcher, Chapman and potentially the slowing down of Watson may seriously hurt this squad. I'm not completely sold on them dropping this far, however, it's not off the chart.

Carlton, far too many mistakes at the draft table, first round talent has failed this club, and will once again see the Blues competing for Spoons instead of trophies. questions need to be asked, what went wrong?

Melbourne, after the Halo effect of Paul Roos the poor old Dees will fall from top 8 challenger back into the doldrums for another period. The worry here is if this does happen to occur this way, it may very well be the straw that broke the camels back as far as the Dees are concerned.
 
Feder98 said:
Post which teams you see in the bottom 4 and top 4 in 3 years from now, order doesn't matter.

Apologies if there is a thread like this but I couldn't see one.

Bottom 4: (TOP 4)
1. North Melbourne
2. Port Adelaide
3. Hawthorn
4. Sydney

Top 4: (BOTTOM 4)
1. Melbourne
2. Carlton
3. Fremantle
4. Adelaide
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So close, if you had changed bottom with top.
 
Top 4
Gold Coast - bugger 3 years will be there next year and Ablett will still be firing then too.
Port Adelaide - looking at the age of the group have 4-5 years of top 4 remaining at least
Sydney - now it is clear the AFL won't get rid of CoLA because they want to have strong teams in Sydney no matter what, it means they won't lose the players they should because of the Buddy and Tippett contracts.
Western Bulldogs - this is my smokey. If they can land an actual marking forward then it will fill the one hole that they need to get there in 3 years

Bottom 4
Essendon - the financial cost of the ASADA suspension (and they will happen) will cripple the club and their football department spendings. Also expect a second wave of penalties from the AFL. They were done for bring the game into disrepute, they will get done again for systematic doping. Fines will also come from Workcover.
Carlton - tried to buy a premiership like the 80s and 90s, but fall flat on their face. Have recruit poorly as well.
St Kilda - they are in for some real pain. No-one looks like filling the leadersip hole about to be left by Reiwodlt and Hayes.
Fremantle - they will be on the slide by then and it is a question of whether recruiting top up players by Lyon has full bitten in like it has at St Kilda has occurred by then. (If they're not there by then they will be sooner after)
 

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Opinion Bottom 4 and top 4 teams in 3 years

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