Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 3)

[chico]

Deledio

R4 - 1 vote
R7 - 1 votes
R8 - 2 votes
R12 - 2 votes
R13 - 2 votes
R18 - 2 votes

r4 they lost by 55 points i have moloney (37 touches game high next best tuck 31, mcdonald 30), sylvia (20 touches 5 goals, polled well last year), and mcdonald (30 touches and a goal) in the votes plus green kicked 4 and had 24 touches and other melb mids did well scully and jones high poss counts. Cant see lids polling here (27 touches).

And round 7 was the 50 point loss to the crows i remember the game was close all the way, crows just demolished them in the last quarter, so there could be some chance a tiger will poll but i have goodwin (30 touches), johncock (21, 1 goal), and mcleod (19, 2 goals) polling with thompson (23, 1 goal) and van berlo (27) others who could sneak a vote. Deledio 24 touches, no real standout for richmond again id find it extremely unlikely he will poll in this game.

 

[AjsGuns]

BK can u post ur R4 Melb vs Rich results? huge game mcdonald/maloney/green/sylvia all amongst it.

 

[Notorious_29]

r4 they lost by 55 points i have moloney (37 touches game high next best tuck 31, mcdonald 30), sylvia (20 touches 5 goals, polled well last year), and mcdonald (30 touches and a goal) in the votes plus green kicked 4 and had 24 touches and other melb mids did well scully and jones high poss counts. Cant see lids polling here (27 touches).

And round 7 was the 50 point loss to the crows i remember the game was close all the way, crows just demolished them in the last quarter, so there could be some chance a tiger will poll but i have goodwin (30 touches), johncock (21, 1 goal), and mcleod (19, 2 goals) polling with thompson (23, 1 goal) and van berlo (27) others who could sneak a vote. Deledio 24 touches, no real standout for richmond again id find it extremely unlikely he will poll in this game.

Mate I honestly don't remember every aspect from these games, at the time I obviously had good reason to give Deledio votes. Stat's only go so far in Brownlow Medal voting, there are so many other factors it's not funny, thus would only be able to tell you why I gave Deledio votes if I re-watched the games. If I find time to do so I will post my thoughts.

 

[twarby]

Mate I honestly don't remember every aspect from these games, at the time I obviously had good reason to give Deledio votes. Stat's only go so far in Brownlow Medal voting, there are so many other factors it's not funny, thus would only be able to tell you why I gave Deledio votes if I re-watched the games. If I find time to do so I will post my thoughts.

i reckon i vote similar to you, i dont go into detail and add a few extra players as it messes with your thinking i believe and you start re assessing your 321, umpires cant do this.

fwiw that game i went Mcdonald, Maloney, Sylvia

 

[adii_7]

Can you please stay on the punting board so I can avoid your posts like the plague. You honestly have NFI.

Flog.

you honestly think thompson at 1.35 is safe? in a team thats won 9 games?

Douglas has been damaging in there winning games, hes had multiple scoring assists, inside 50's etc etc. In the few adelaide games i've watched i've noticed Doughlas ALOT more then i've noticed Thompson.

I cant really see Thompson losing.

i had thompson as my lock, i took him at early odds as i knew the world was going to jump on him. I've got the option of buying out and i see no value in the current odds. Douglas is to unknown to have Thompson as a lock.

jeez i would like to see your count..
some of your comments are very strange.
whats your top 6 if you think Judd cant make it, i think Judd would be on a minimum of 20 votes,
on thompson, i take it you read the club b+f. I like it how you said Douglas can poll.. when hes polled once in his career.
Thompson was infront for the crows last year until Vince made me a few bucks with his Bog in round 22. Vince was the heavy favourite amongst bigfooty and nearly got upset by Thompson

I agree on your Pendlebury/Swan observation

Douglas was a nobody last year, came of a huge age this year. I do recall the vince BOG in round 22 , as i had money on that to. Thompson could be anything, 1.35 is no value what so ever.

Hodge alot safer in my opinion. 1.15.

what, doughty, u srs?
judd will get top 5, im not sure who could knock him out of top 5

Swan, Ablett, Selwood, Hayes, Hodge, Pendlebury & Sandilands (if he lives upto his odds)

Who cares Adii7? Just save for Thompson with Douglas and bob's your teapot. Doughty and Kirk Tippett can jog on, absolute no shows.

Trying to get people thinking and looking past the odds of 1.35.

Please name the 7 players who you think will out vote Judd?

Swan, Ablett, Selwood, Hayes, Hodge, Pendlebury & Sandilands (if he lives upto his odds)

unless douglas polls well because he was very shit before this year and has really stepped it up,

thompson polls preety good though i think?

Thompson has polled pretty well, what i was saying with my comments is that people may have thompson marked down for 1's or 2's in games and not notice that tippet and douglas can poll with 10 disp 4 goal games and 20 - 25 disp games.

Just fuel for thought

Seriously think thompson should be used in 75-85% of multi's and douglas used in the rest.

 

[twarby]

breakdown for Douglas then adii?

http://www.footywire.com/
theres the site you will probably use

 

[chico]

Mate I honestly don't remember every aspect from these games, at the time I obviously had good reason to give Deledio votes. Stat's only go so far in Brownlow Medal voting, there are so many other factors it's not funny, thus would only be able to tell you why I gave Deledio votes if I re-watched the games. If I find time to do so I will post my thoughts.

of course, ive watched every game this year and like u done my votes straight after ive finished watching, just thought that lids would be extremely lucky to poll in either game and those that i mentioned the most likely, stats of course aren't everything but usually do tend to back up the way the umpires see it.

im on riewoldt in about 35% of multis so of course i hope the umps agree with me, but i do think lids will not be far behind

 

[maxlad]

Seriously think thompson should be used in 75-85% of multi's and douglas used in the rest.

well you can do that, i dont think many others will, but goodluck to you

 

[Brownlow King]

BK can u post ur R4 Melb vs Rich results? huge game mcdonald/maloney/green/sylvia all amongst it.

No dramas.

I can't remember the game at all but have :

Moloney 2.5 - 3 votes
Sylvia 1 - 2 votes
Mcdonald 1 - 1 vote
Green 0.75

I'm sorry but I can't add more than that and didn't write down any game notes which I do about 50% of the time.
Does this help at all ??

 

[adii_7]

well you can do that, i dont think many others will, but goodluck to you

im not going to do that, but thats what i suggest. Thommo could be the first anchor down. I expect 1 to go down .

breakdown for Douglas then adii?

http://www.footywire.com/
theres the site you will probably use

pretty sure i had thompson leading by 2-3, my breakdown book isn't with me at the moment.

 

[Brownlow King]

Hey Adii, Thompson is a moral at Adelaide and probably the biggest lock of all. You had better sober up if you reckon that Douglas or Tippett can get anywhere near him.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Hey Adii, Thompson is a moral at Adelaide and probably the biggest lock of all. You had better sober up if you reckon that Douglas or Tippett can get anywhere near him.

I would say that Watson is a bigger lock. But yeah, Thompson is pretty safe.

 

[FootyStar#1]

agree with BK, thompson biggest lock out of watson, brown and him.

Just changing topic to Jack for a minute, i have polling 3 votes in rounds 6, 19 , 21 and 22. I've give him chances in rounds 5 and 16. Does anyone feel he'll poll in any other rounds?

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Just finished my Fremantle votes

Pavlich is no chance to get anywhere near the votes needed to win, I only have him polling 9 and he is no certainty to poll (R4 vs Saints, R10)

Its a two horce race between Barlow and Sandilands. I was more generous towards Sandi and less generous towards Barlow because its his first season. I gave Sandi 18 and Barlow 14, but i also only gave barlow 2 each in (R1 vs Adel and R2 vs ESS). If he can manage 3 votes in both those games he goes to 16 and Sandilands drops to 17 on my count which is a fair chance of happening. Than if Balla rolls Sandi for the 3 against WCE late in the season than i have them 16 each. Certainly can see why BK is betting on these 2 and with this count will likely make me bet on these 2 at about (50/50). Barlow certainly seems to be paying over, but i think Sandi will win.

I can give full breakdowns if needed

But my final tally was
Sandilands - 18
Barlow - 14
Mundy - 10
Hill - 9
Pavlich - 9

Favourded Mundy and Hill because they just seem to catch your eye more with breaking the lines, disposal quality, long kicks and clearances (mundy).

 

[carpsi]

agree with BK, thompson biggest lock out of watson, brown and him.

Just changing topic to Jack for a minute, i have polling 3 votes in rounds 6, 19 , 21 and 22. I've give him chances in rounds 5 and 16. Does anyone feel he'll poll in any other rounds?

Round 20 he will poll also

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

agree with BK, thompson biggest lock out of watson, brown and him.

Just changing topic to Jack for a minute, i have polling 3 votes in rounds 6, 19 , 21 and 22. I've give him chances in rounds 5 and 16. Does anyone feel he'll poll in any other rounds?

R20 against fremantle i reckon. After watching today's final he stands out alot more than i thought.

 

[carpsi]

Just finished my Fremantle votes

Pavlich is no chance to get anywhere near the votes needed to win, I only have him polling 9 and he is no certainty to poll (R4 vs Saints, R10)



Favourded Mundy and Hill because they just seem to catch your eye more with breaking the lines, disposal quality, long kicks and clearances (mundy).

Exactly the same thing Pav does

 

[Brownlow King]

agree with BK, thompson biggest lock out of watson, brown and him.

Just changing topic to Jack for a minute, i have polling 3 votes in rounds 6, 19 , 21 and 22. I've give him chances in rounds 5 and 16. Does anyone feel he'll poll in any other rounds?

I gave Jack 3 in R5, 2 in R6 and 1 in R20 but the same as you apart from that.

 

[Geeves Train]

First post on this thread for a while but been a great read as always.

Think everyone has found the value with Brown and Watson, they just look so much better than any of their rivals. I am struggling to see why Hodge doesnt also fit in this basket? I understand the price deters some people however he was basically Hawthorn for the first half of the season. Surely he will get at least 15 votes and that would see him 5 clear of anyone else at the Hawks. These three form my biggest multi and if they win I win well.

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Hey Adii, Thompson is a moral at Adelaide and probably the biggest lock of all. You had better sober up if you reckon that Douglas or Tippett can get anywhere near him.

Thanks for the reassurance BK, you've put my doubting mind at ease at the thought I should be covering Thompson more.

BTW BK, if I may ask, what is your breakdown for Boak vs Cassisi? Apologies if I accidently overlooked it had you posted it previously.

Just looking at Cassisi's polling history, if anything it's actually made me more confident in Boak taking it out for Port.

Check out his polling season breakdown vs Boak over the years:

http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/players/D/Domenic_Cassisi.html
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/players/T/Travis_Boak.html

Cassisi has polled 2, 4, 5 in his past three seasons. Granted, Boak hasn't polled out of his skin either - having polled 3 and 5 for the past two seasons - but he's still young and improving with each year, with 2010 having been arguably his best season yet.

In regards to Boak's game, the one improvement just from looking at the stats alone, you can see he has increased his tackle count two-fold. This can only be a good thing given this is the sort of play that attracts the umpires attention by forcing a stoppage etc.

Cheers budd!

 

[WCE92_94_06]

Thinking of chucking a $50 on Hayes, Boyd, Hodge, Watson, Brown, Thompson, Boak, Riewoldt @ $132.

Thoughts??

 

[maxlad]

yeah i think boak is a preety good thing aswell

the multi i like the most is thompson/brown/watson/hayes/boak which remarkably is still paying $30 and boak started at 6? and is now into 3.5

 

[twarby]

Thanks for the reassurance BK, you've put my doubting mind at ease at the thought I should be covering Thompson more.

BTW BK, if I may ask, what is your breakdown for Boak vs Cassisi? Apologies if I accidently overlooked it had you posted it previously.

Just looking at Cassisi's polling history, if anything it's actually made me more confident in Boak taking it out for Port.

Check out his polling season breakdown vs Boak over the years:

http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/players/D/Domenic_Cassisi.html
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/players/T/Travis_Boak.html

Cassisi has polled 2, 4, 5 in his past three seasons. Granted, Boak hasn't polled out of his skin either - having polled 3 and 5 for the past two seasons - but he's still young and improving with each year, with 2010 having been arguably his best season yet.

In regards to Boak's game, the one improvement just from looking at the stats alone, you can see he has increased his tackle count two-fold. This can only be a good thing given this is the sort of play that attracts the umpires attention by forcing a stoppage etc.

Cheers budd!

just on Casissi surely this is his breakout season aswell? i havnt bothered comparing his seasons, but he seems to have really lifted this year and has been Ports most consistent player.. hes also captain this year and umpires would always have him in their mind i think, he also fits the fairest category pretty well IMO

 

[Brownlow King]

Thanks for the reassurance BK, you've put my doubting mind at ease at the thought I should be covering Thompson more.

BTW BK, if I may ask, what is your breakdown for Boak vs Cassisi? Apologies if I accidently overlooked it had you posted it previously.

Just looking at Cassisi's polling history, if anything it's actually made me more confident in Boak taking it out for Port.

Check out his polling season breakdown vs Boak over the years:

http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/players/D/Domenic_Cassisi.html
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/players/T/Travis_Boak.html

Cassisi has polled 2, 4, 5 in his past three seasons. Granted, Boak hasn't polled out of his skin either - having polled 3 and 5 for the past two seasons - but he's still young and improving with each year, with 2010 having been arguably his best season yet.

In regards to Boak's game, the one improvement just from looking at the stats alone, you can see he has increased his tackle count two-fold. This can only be a good thing given this is the sort of play that attracts the umpires attention by forcing a stoppage etc.

Cheers budd!

Boak 9 ( 12 votes ) - 2 x 3, 2 x 2, 2 x 1
Cassissi 6.4 ( 8 votes ) - 1 x 3, 2 x 2, 1 x 1

Rodan ( any other ) the danger IMO. Rodan 6.75 ( 8 votes ).

Boak is my selection but no good thing. Good price still though.

 

[WCE92_94_06]

Luxbet.. don't have a vic tab account.. it may be more was just a rough calcutlation