Millington Magic
Club Legend
Thinking of Thompson/Brown/Watson/Green/Boak/Swallow/Boyd
Pretty confident on the first 5. Thoughts on Swallow and Boyd?
Pretty confident on the first 5. Thoughts on Swallow and Boyd?
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 3)
- Thread starter Cruiser23
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Good value at 275-1 (off the top of my head)
From my votes I have Boyd beating Cooney, however Harvey just shading out Swallow. There will only be a few votes in it though, if Swallow gets up it will not surprise me one bit. I've included him in the same amount of multi's as Harvey, he has had a bloody good year.
As for the multi, do it
Just went over my poll throughout the year, I am still convinced Pendlebury will shade Swan, and possibily win. I've been to every Collingwood game in Melbourne and watched the interstate matches on TV, and Pendlebury does some freaky things with the ball around the stoppages.
When Swanny went on his hot streak in the middle of the year, Pendles was always 2nd or 3rd best and will poll handy 2's...(In fact Pendlebury outpolled Swan in the Collingwood Boards B&F award in the second half of the year
)He wins contested ball, second at the club in tackles as well, yet looks so smooth and clean when outside. Plus he won 3? medals this year so has had the standout games. Finally he polled 12 votes last year, the same as Simon Black and many others before they won.
He has a lot going in his favour, don't discard him!
For the record; Pendlebury over Ablett, Swan and Hayes...
Juddh2h, ThompsonBrownWatson, Green
Juddh2h, ThompsonBrownWatson, Sylvia
Juddh2h, ThompsonBrownWatson, Green, Boak
Juddh2h, ThompsonBrownWatson, Sylvia, Boak
dont need to add in Swallow Boyd. if i had to pick Boyd but i can see a draw with cooney.
maybe add JRiewoldt to that list.
You Beauty!
Debutant
I'll definitely be in here at the end of the count offering counselling/ways to spend money.[/quote]
It is great to see this thread back 'up and about' today. It is afterall that time of the year that we have all been waiting for. It looked like the thread was going off the track there for a while, but order has been restored. Remember a wise old posters comments about this being about 'Us against the Bookies'. We are all in it together.
Hopefully we are all back here at some point after the count to discuss the results. I've got a feeling will have a visit from a few old favourites at some point too. Maybe I am being too positive/optimisic, but I have always been that way. It is the only way to be.
Speaking of which, my fav bet is- ThompsonBrownWatsonHodgeJRiewoldtBoydHayesSylviaPendles
Put it on the day multis opened and if that gets up I think I will seriously cry with joy.
It is great to see this thread back 'up and about' today. It is afterall that time of the year that we have all been waiting for. It looked like the thread was going off the track there for a while, but order has been restored. Remember a wise old posters comments about this being about 'Us against the Bookies'. We are all in it together.
Hopefully we are all back here at some point after the count to discuss the results. I've got a feeling will have a visit from a few old favourites at some point too. Maybe I am being too positive/optimisic, but I have always been that way. It is the only way to be.
Speaking of which, my fav bet is- ThompsonBrownWatsonHodgeJRiewoldtBoydHayesSylviaPendles
Put it on the day multis opened and if that gets up I think I will seriously cry with joy.
Hopefully we are all back here at some point after the count to discuss the results. I've got a feeling will have a visit from a few old favourites at some point too. Maybe I am being too positive/optimisic, but I have always been that way. It is the only way to be.
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IMO, there's more value (and you learn more) from the post-mortem, than the ''pre''.
stuart27
Club Legend
Is there any reason why JRoo is still so long (relatively speaking at 1.80-90) to win Richmond Most Votes, considering other club contests have favourites in the 1.10 mark?
Surely he's a lock?
Surely he's a lock?
You Beauty!
Debutant
Tiges midfielders/Brownlow being largely a midfielder's medal/Polling History??/Occasionally argues with umpires etc. I think he will get up, but he is not a lock
Not a regular poster here, so would understand if this is knocked back. But would TAB accept (Watson,Boak,JVolt,Goodes,Boyd,Sylvia,Lecras, Group 2 - Goddard , Group 3 - Chappy , Top 5 - Hodge) ? I've had few trouble with clashes in my multi's....any help would be appreciated. Cheers.
pmalcolm1984
Debutant
Have watched this post and thought I would put my views up prior to count, if anyone interested... I'm a bit different to others, using a statistically based method (with an adjustment for polling history... Not perfect!!!). I have different bets to others (no exposure to Thompson, small to Riewoldt, like Montagna and Tuck for value) and I may be completely off the mark.
Summary as follows:
I have Swan marginally in front of Ablett, but not by nearly enough to back him at $1.81. I think Ablett represents great value at $5.50. It appears close to a two horse race (touch wood) though (I have them clear over Hodge by about five) and many think Ablett is going to suffer from second year blues so I get why Swan would be this short.
Teams:
Adelaide – Many using Thompson as a lock. I haven’t. Got him about four clear of Douglas, who I don’t think is good value.
Brisbane – Haven’t used Brown but wish I had in retrospect as a semi-lock instead of Sandi. No others represent value to my eye.
Carlton – Can’t have Judd at that price. Sportsbet running a market sans-Judd offering $2.50 for Murphy which I think is OK value.
Collingwood – Swan should win.
Essendon – I have Watson clear by about six over Hille.
Fremantle – Have a fairly large exposure to Sandliands that I’m not as comfortable about as I was earlier. Think Pav represents quite good value. Hard to assess how Barlow will go.
Geelong – Have Ablett winning.
Hawthorn – Have Hodge about five clear of Mitchell. I have Mitchell in a few bets though and I think he represents reasonably good value.
Melbourne – Have Green and Sylvia on 8 each and Moloney on five.
North – Have Harvey winning by about three but I think Swallow represents OK value if you can get $4.00+
Port – Have Boak a couple clear of Cornes then Cassisi one further back. Boak seemed good value at $4.00, probably at fair value now ($2.50 mark).
Richmond – I differ to many here. I have Riewoldt fractionally ahead of Tuck. I know he doesn’t poll well historically though. I have Deledio a vote further back. I got Tuck at $8.50. Both have two standout games, might come down to how they poll in these games. If one doesn’t poll when they should, that might be the difference.
St Kilda – Again, my views different. I have Montagna as slight favourite followed by Hayes and Goddard, then Dal Santo. Again, the others are proven pollers, but at $4.00 I thought he represented OK value.
Sydney – Have Goodes about three clear. Got Jack at $7.00 but not happy in retrospect with this bet after a closer look.
West Coast – Have Priddis as favourite but not offering any sort of value. Wouldn’t touch Le Cras either.
Bulldogs – Have used Boyd and probably a little over-exposed. I have him three clear of Griffin, four clear of Cooney and five clear of Cross.
Good luck to everyone tomorrow night.
Summary as follows:
I have Swan marginally in front of Ablett, but not by nearly enough to back him at $1.81. I think Ablett represents great value at $5.50. It appears close to a two horse race (touch wood) though (I have them clear over Hodge by about five) and many think Ablett is going to suffer from second year blues so I get why Swan would be this short.
Teams:
Adelaide – Many using Thompson as a lock. I haven’t. Got him about four clear of Douglas, who I don’t think is good value.
Brisbane – Haven’t used Brown but wish I had in retrospect as a semi-lock instead of Sandi. No others represent value to my eye.
Carlton – Can’t have Judd at that price. Sportsbet running a market sans-Judd offering $2.50 for Murphy which I think is OK value.
Collingwood – Swan should win.
Essendon – I have Watson clear by about six over Hille.
Fremantle – Have a fairly large exposure to Sandliands that I’m not as comfortable about as I was earlier. Think Pav represents quite good value. Hard to assess how Barlow will go.
Geelong – Have Ablett winning.
Hawthorn – Have Hodge about five clear of Mitchell. I have Mitchell in a few bets though and I think he represents reasonably good value.
Melbourne – Have Green and Sylvia on 8 each and Moloney on five.
North – Have Harvey winning by about three but I think Swallow represents OK value if you can get $4.00+
Port – Have Boak a couple clear of Cornes then Cassisi one further back. Boak seemed good value at $4.00, probably at fair value now ($2.50 mark).
Richmond – I differ to many here. I have Riewoldt fractionally ahead of Tuck. I know he doesn’t poll well historically though. I have Deledio a vote further back. I got Tuck at $8.50. Both have two standout games, might come down to how they poll in these games. If one doesn’t poll when they should, that might be the difference.
St Kilda – Again, my views different. I have Montagna as slight favourite followed by Hayes and Goddard, then Dal Santo. Again, the others are proven pollers, but at $4.00 I thought he represented OK value.
Sydney – Have Goodes about three clear. Got Jack at $7.00 but not happy in retrospect with this bet after a closer look.
West Coast – Have Priddis as favourite but not offering any sort of value. Wouldn’t touch Le Cras either.
Bulldogs – Have used Boyd and probably a little over-exposed. I have him three clear of Griffin, four clear of Cooney and five clear of Cross.
Good luck to everyone tomorrow night.
pmalcolm1984
Debutant
If any Essendon/Port/Rich/Dogs/Melbourne/Eagles players in Group that may be your problem.
But first, take Hodge out... I don't reckon you can multi up winnning/top 3/5 into team votes... Seems like a conflict to me.
Got Jack,Bolton and Goodes
o) in the groups...guess I have to take Goodes and Hodge out...thanks for the help mate.Goodluck to everyone.
I'll admit that I haven't been checking the odds at all since I placed all my multis 3 weeks ago, and only just realised that Ablett to win the Brownlow is 4.50 I know I'm slow, but I recall him being neck and neck with Swan about a month ago at about $2 each or so, so these odds are going to let me cover myself in the event he does get up as I had nothing at all invested in him. Got onto Swan and the others in the first half of the season, so I'll be fine now.
Good luck to everyone tomorrow night
I know I'm slow, but I recall him being neck and neck with Swan about a month ago at about $2 each or so, so these odds are going to let me cover myself in the event he does get up as I had nothing at all invested in him. Got onto Swan and the others in the first half of the season, so I'll be fine now.Good luck to everyone tomorrow night
Won't have much time to come in tomorrow, due to work and drinking, so I'll say this. Regardless of our positions in the last few weeks, leechers, information providers, those who try, trolls etc., we're all in the same boat now. Let's hope we all come of this with some money (even you DT_35, I hope you somehow come across 10k in the toilets when Goddard doesn't beat Judd!). This time last year I returned to this thread to thank the regulars for helping me buy my first car, let's hope that happens again . Good luck everyone.
. Good luck everyone.i watch footy everyweek and have been following this thread since the start of the year,
tomorow is the big night tho and i have noticed that all the "regulars" have left and gone their own way now..i dont blame them because of the pests who do keep asking noobyquestions, but do think it is sad, considering tomorow night is the brownlow its why everyone has been on this thread..all bets are down now, its us vs the TAB!
saying that goodluck everyone! will be interesting to read what people have won by the end of tomorow night!
tomorow is the big night tho and i have noticed that all the "regulars" have left and gone their own way now..i dont blame them because of the pests who do keep asking noobyquestions, but do think it is sad, considering tomorow night is the brownlow its why everyone has been on this thread..all bets are down now, its us vs the TAB!
saying that goodluck everyone! will be interesting to read what people have won by the end of tomorow night!
Have outlayed a fair bit this year and have another couple of hundred bucks to chuck on silly multis tomoz...would just like to say thanks to all the contributors to this thread, have taken in a lot and let us all rape the bookies again this year
johncocksasuperstar
Team Captain
Putting in some groundwork this year after the count for next year is extremely valuable I think. Even if all you want to do is revel in the wins of this year (fingers crossed).
This is such a nervous time, I'm constantly second guessing every player I have money on.
This is such a nervous time, I'm constantly second guessing every player I have money on.
Lion of Panjshir
Team Captain
- May 7, 2010
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- AFL Club
- Fremantle
I get the feeling the bookies are playing ducks and drakes with Swan. They all appear to be saying what a disastrous result he is and that he has it in the bag. That knob Daffy is saying he should be 1.20. Yet he still lurks at 1.80. I reckon they are very happy to lay him at that price as he represents no value. I won't work until 2018 if Pendlebury beats him and wins the medal.
Again, good luck to all. One of the great things about the medal is that after round 22, nothing can change but opinions.
If there is a monster surprise, I don't see it coming. Not even in the team bets. Dal Santo and Pav the only two in double figures who could win their teams' count.
Again, good luck to all. One of the great things about the medal is that after round 22, nothing can change but opinions.
If there is a monster surprise, I don't see it coming. Not even in the team bets. Dal Santo and Pav the only two in double figures who could win their teams' count.
Won't have much time to come in tomorrow, due to work and drinking, so I'll say this. Regardless of our positions in the last few weeks, leechers, information providers, those who try, trolls etc., we're all in the same boat now. Let's hope we all come of this with some money (even you DT_35, I hope you somehow come across 10k in the toilets when Goddard doesn't beat Judd!). This time last year I returned to this thread to thank the regulars for helping me buy my first car, let's hope that happens again
Well said, mate!
I wish the best of luck to everyone with their respective bets, and let's hope we all take the bookies to the cleaners once more! Feels like Christmas Eve!
All the very best!
I was contributing to the other Brownlow threads we've had going here at BigFooty and thought id post the link to my Phantom Brownlow Medal website which ive been doing all year and has got a bit of a following.
Hopefully it can be a useful tool for people. Im one of the many who have Swan as a runaway leader, but believe Ablett won't be too far behind.
For me, the value lies in the club top scorers betting markets. Goddard to top the Saints strikes me as value at $2.35 and so does Adam Cooney at $2.90 for the Doggies, but beating Boyd will be tough. I also like Colin Sylvia at $3.00, Travis Boak at $2.50 and Adam Goodes looks a lock in at $1.53.
Gary Ablett to lead at the half way mark is one of the great value bets too at around $1.90 - you've got to have a piece of that.
Hopefully it can be a useful tool for people. Im one of the many who have Swan as a runaway leader, but believe Ablett won't be too far behind.
For me, the value lies in the club top scorers betting markets. Goddard to top the Saints strikes me as value at $2.35 and so does Adam Cooney at $2.90 for the Doggies, but beating Boyd will be tough. I also like Colin Sylvia at $3.00, Travis Boak at $2.50 and Adam Goodes looks a lock in at $1.53.
Gary Ablett to lead at the half way mark is one of the great value bets too at around $1.90 - you've got to have a piece of that.
For the record, my top ten is as follows:
I really do believe Swan is a good thing this year, he came home like a freight train. Gary Ablett could get close, but he has to poll well i nthe first few games and if he doesn't, then it is pretty much over. I think the top 5 or so this year is pretty settled and easier to predict than in previous years.
- Dane Swan (30)
- Gary Ablett (25)
- Luke Hodge (22)
- Brendon Goddard (20)
- Chris Judd (20)
- Scott Pendlebury (20)
- Michael Barlow (19)
- Brent Harvey (19)
- Adam Goodes (18)
- Aaron Sandilands (17)
I really do believe Swan is a good thing this year, he came home like a freight train. Gary Ablett could get close, but he has to poll well i nthe first few games and if he doesn't, then it is pretty much over. I think the top 5 or so this year is pretty settled and easier to predict than in previous years.
Have placed all of my bets, and a lot of them echo what has been done in this thread so I won't bother posting the regular bets.
Love having some obscure punts though, my favourite being Brady Rawlings into Any other Bulldogs Player (Ryan Griffen). Got odds of 255/1 for that.
Love having some obscure punts though, my favourite being Brady Rawlings into Any other Bulldogs Player (Ryan Griffen). Got odds of 255/1 for that.
Top 5 for the record:
1. ablett
2. judd
3. swan
4. pendlebury
5. hodge
Bring on tonight, can't wait!!!!!!!!
1. ablett
2. judd
3. swan
4. pendlebury
5. hodge
Bring on tonight, can't wait!!!!!!!!
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