Brownlow Medal 2013

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I think it is between Selwood and Ablett. I agree with the January Man and feel that Selwood will poll 30-31. He has has BOGs in the following games

Hawks x2, Sydney, GWS, Port, eagles, melbourne, st kilda

Also more than likely to get the minors in the following games: North, Adelaide, Brisbane
 
Khatt said:
Where are you getting those odds, mate?
Click to expand...

Ablett is with Sportingbet, Selwood is with Luxbet.
Although I haven't been able to get on the Selwood 'Place' yet. The market is up on the website but it won't let me take it. Called them twice and they said that it is 'stuck' at the processing part. Not sure what's happening, but it has been a bit of a farcical at Luxbet lately.

Khatt said:
I have the winner between 27-31 and Boak between 17-23.
Click to expand...

Who do you have as the winner and how close is Selwood to Top 3?
 
crazy odds at luxbet for selwood... i thought i was getting nice odds when i got on at 4.75 but he's drifted... these phantom brownlows that have Selwood 2-3 behind Ablett have given him no votes vs north (he's likely to get 1 or 3 with swallow getting the 2) 1 vote vs adelaide (likely to get the 2) 2 votes vs STK.. (likely to get the 3 ahead of motlop) and none vs Sydney (likely to sneak 1), also could be an outside chance for the 1 in the loss vs Brisbane, as the umps aren't very fond of Stevie J

gotta remember he's a proven vote getter and you'd think they'd lean more his way in a 50/50 call as he's so recognisable and the captain
 
the winner will need at least 27.. not 24-26... Selwood alone has 3 vs hawks twice, 3 vs Sydney, 3 vs GWS, 2/3 vs dees, 2/3 vs stk, 1/2 vs ade, 3 vs Port, 3 vs wc.. so that's 23 worst case scenario... before adding in the North game where I think he will get the 3 despite media totally ignoring him.. and if you give him 2 in the adelaide game and one set of 3 in either the stk or dees game.. that puts him from 23 worst case to 28 likely.... the North game is a huge one early.. if he picks up the 3 there Ablett is in huge trouble and live betters should hop on Selwood then.
 
Willzzz said:
Ablett is with Sportingbet, Selwood is with Luxbet.
Although I haven't been able to get on the Selwood 'Place' yet. The market is up on the website but it won't let me take it. Called them twice and they said that it is 'stuck' at the processing part. Not sure what's happening, but it has been a bit of a farcical at Luxbet lately.
Click to expand...

Thanks for that! :)

Willzzz said:
Who do you have as the winner and how close is Selwood to Top 3?
Click to expand...

I've got Ablett as the winner and Selwood is definitely in my Top 3 (between 22-31 votes). Also liking Pendlebury for Top 3. What are your thoughts?
 
wow just saw sportingbets odds for top 5... fyfe at 3.50.... I have him finishing 3rd behind Selwood and Ablett.... and love the +12.5 on Boak or the +7 on fyfe for brownlow paying $12.... think Fyfe ends up at 24ish and winner of Ablett/Selwood head to head 28-30.. i'll chuck 10 on boak and fyfe at the handicaps

Despite only playing eight games in 2012, Fyfe finished 12th in the Brownlow Medal.
 
I came here to mention Boak +12.5 @ $12 on Centrebet. Seems like plenty of others have beaten me too\ it, but who cares when the odds are still the same?
 

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DT_35 said:
I only have Boak on 16 in my count... o_O
Click to expand...

i have boak on 21, but he is an interesting one to assess. picked up 16 votes in 2010 but hasn't set them on fire in other counts. suffered from port's bad seasons in that period though. he has added goalkicking this year which we haven't seen before. the thing is who will take votes longer term from him. westhoff and hartlett early, but both dropped right off until the end of the year, whereas he was strong throughout
 
Willzzz said:
Ablett is with Sportingbet, Selwood is with Luxbet.
Although I haven't been able to get on the Selwood 'Place' yet. The market is up on the website but it won't let me take it. Called them twice and they said that it is 'stuck' at the processing part. Not sure what's happening, but it has been a bit of a farcical at Luxbet lately.



Who do you have as the winner and how close is Selwood to Top 3?
Click to expand...

Tell me about it. Trying to put a quaddie on saturday and it kept coming up max bet $0.00. All she said was 'Oh that shouldnt happen' and she just left me there for 10 minutes and eventually cut me off, WTF! I had to get back on and talk to someone else who said I dunno, try your phone. heck!
 
Not seeing much love for Pendles. I've been tinkering with my Brownlow model and whichever way I look at it, he's right up in the top 3. I'm a bit filthy on myself for loading up on multies involving Swan most team votes as I give him almost no chance of beating Pendles
 
Had a look through the games for Ablett, Selwood, Pendlebury and Swan.

My count for the 4 are a bit lower than what others have Ablett at.

I've got
Selwood 26
Ablett 24
Pendlebury 17
Swan 15

I think McKenzie, Prestia, Bennell, O'Meara, Dixon & Smith will collectively steal 4-5 votes off Ablett.
The games where Pendlebury, Swan have played well in have often been games where Cloke, Reid have kicked 4+ Goals. Think they will take the 3.
 
Willzzz said:
Had a look through the games for Ablett, Selwood, Pendlebury and Swan.

My count for the 4 are a bit lower than what others have Ablett at.

I've got
Selwood 26
Ablett 24
Pendlebury 17
Swan 15

I think McKenzie, Prestia, Bennell, O'Meara, Dixon & Smith will collectively steal 4-5 votes off Ablett.
The games where Pendlebury, Swan have played well in have often been games where Cloke, Reid have kicked 4+ Goals. Think they will take the 3.
Click to expand...
Your count is very low, swan and pendles 32 between them? Highly unlikely. Forwards tend to struggle on brownlow night and need a bag of 5/6+ to get the 3's
 
I've been reading through this thread and I have similar results to some of you. Swan v Pendles. In my count I have Swan beating Pendles by 3. I have Swan polling (2votes) in 1 game between rounds 1-9. Phantombrownlow was the same too from memory. Now looking at Swan's stats between rounds 1-9, he still averaged around 30 disposals a game. He's a machine in getting votes. If he polls in any other game between rounds 1-9, I believe that he will have Pendles covered.

The other difficult one is Jack v Hannebery. Jack wins here by 2 votes according to my calculations. What's everyone's thoughts on those two?
 
cant see swan beating pendles.. Swan had too many games where he just kicked the ball along the ground. Dribbled it roly poly turnovers.
Lock in pendles for 3 Rd1. rd 6 stk, rd8 geelong (some have given harry o 3- pendles was extraordinary) rd 16 adelaide, rd 20 sydney. Ive seen some counts with pendles on 15 or 16. GOOD luck with that. its practically impossible for him too end on 15. I have him possibly ABLE to poll in 18 games. and a LOCK for 3 in 4 and probs the geelong game. It sounds like many of you MADE up your votes imho.
 
Can and do see Pendles beating Swan.

Round: Pendlebury - Swan
1: 3 - 1
2: 1 - 0
4: 0 - 2
6: 3 - 0
8: 3 - 0
10: 0 - 3
11: 2 - 3
12: 3 - 1
15: 2 - 3
16: 3 - 2
18: 0 - 2
19: 1 - 2
20: 3 - 0
21: 0 - 2
22: 1 - 2
23: 1 - 0
Total: 26 - 23

Close, but I give Pendles the nod.
 
NSLK your count is nearly identical to mine. However rd 22, have given pendles 2- swan 1. Jthomas clearly best on ground but you dont know how the youngster will poll, round 23- gave Ziebell 3/Pendles 2/ bastinac or boomer 1 due to looking at alot of other sites. other than that my count and yours is EXACTLY the same.
 
selwood cameron boak montagna griffen priddis
danger cameron boak montagna griffen priddis heppell hanley
danger selwood boak montagna griffen priddis heppell swan
danger selwood cameron montagna griffen priddis heppell fyfe
danger selwood cameron boak griffen priddis heppell martin
danger selwood cameron boak montagna priddis heppell wells
danger selwood cameron boak montagna griffen heppell mitchell
danger selwood cameron boak montagna griffen heppell pendles
danger selwood cameron boak montagna priddis heppell jack
danger selwood cameron boak griffen priddis heppell
danger selwood cameron montagna griffen priddis hanley
danger selwood boak montagna griffen priddis swan
danger cameron boak montagna griffen priddis fyfe
selwood cameron boak montagna griffen priddis pendles
danger selwood cameron boak montagna griffen priddis mitchell
danger selwood cameron boak montagna griffen priddis wells
danger selwood cameron boak montagna griffen priddis martin
danger selwood cameron boak montagna griffen priddis jack
selwood cameron boak montagna griffen priddis heppell fyfe jack
danger cameron boak montagna griffen priddis heppell mitchell jack
danger selwood boak montagna griffen priddis heppell fyfe hanley
danger selwood cameron montagna griffen priddis heppell mitchell hanley
danger selwood cameron boak griffen priddis heppell fyfe martin
danger selwood cameron boak montagna priddis mitchell jack
danger selwood cameron boak montagna griffen fyfe jack
danger selwood cameron boak montagna griffen mitchell jones
danger selwood cameron boak montagna priddis fyfe jones
danger selwood cameron boak griffen priddis mitchell martin
danger selwood cameron montagna griffen priddis heppell mitchell jack hanley martin wells swan
danger selwood boak montagna griffen priddis heppell fyfe jack hanley martin wells pendles
danger cameron boak montagna griffen priddis mitchell jack hanley martin wells pendles
selwood cameron boak montagna griffen priddis fyfe jack hanley martin wells swan
 

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