Cam Rayner

[Meteoric Rise]

lol. 10th. haha. kidding yourself. aint nowhere near that. 34th. I'd love to know how I can have a mare when I correctly predicted his stats 6 months ahead of time. lol.

24 non-negotiable as miles ahead of Rayner: Brayshaw, LDU, Fritsch, Naughton, Dylan Moore, Zac Bailey, Ed Richards, Tim Kelly, Balta, Liam Ryan, Brent Daniels, Sam Taylor, Tom De Koning, Tom McCartin, Worpel, Miers, Meek, Xerri, Liam Baker, Mihocek, Cerra, Higgins, Starcevich, Oscar Allen

So then the next bracket (11 players) that Rayner is in: Ainsworth, Will Powell, Petty, Bonar, Fogarty, Rayner, Nathan Murphy (now out of the game), Farrell, Switkowski, Holman, Amartey.

So we can argue until we're blue in the face about where Rayner sits from this draft class, but the arguments are between 25-35 in this draft. And I have him at 34. No-one could argue a logical case for him being anywhere near this top 24.

Your focus on this most recent year, where he hasn't even improved from last year, and your reluctance to look at their 6 year career to date shows just how bad his career has been to date. You can't understand the very basic principle that a players value in a draft is based on their total football produced over their career yeah?

And people think that a measly 14-15 possession, 1.1 goals a game is swinging is value? Absolutely mind-boggling logic.

Average career player ratings 2017 draft crop below. Pretty sure they are all playing now bar Nathan Murphy and I've captured everyone who is playing still.

Things to note

* = has benefitted from playing much fewer games at younger ages, and more at a mature age.
** = tall players who played a lot of games from a young age so should fairly be adjusted to a higher average player rating.

1. T Kelly 12.2*
2. Uniacke 11.98
3. Moore 11.37*
4. Worpedo 11.1
5. Taylor 10.58**
6. Brayshaw 10.54
7. Switkowski 10.54*
8. Meek 9.97*
9. T Dekoning 9.92*
10. Cerra 9.9
11. Xerri 9.79*
12. Richards 9.75
13. L Baker 9.59*
14. Bailey 9.57
15. Barely Avfritsch 9.33*
16. Daniels 9.24
17. Liam Ryan 9.18*
18. Naughton 9.15**
19. Miller 9.11*
20. Higgins 8.92
21. Miers 8.88
22. Balta 8.69
23. Powell 8.55
24. D Fogarty 8.45*
25. Rayner 8.44
26. Farrell 8.3*
27. Allen 8.26
28. McCartin 8.12**
29. Mihocek 7.98*
30. Ballard 7.90
31. Stephenson 7.78
32. Dow 7.64
33. L Fogarty 7.6*
34. B Zerk 7.58*
35. L Murphy 7.49
36. Clark 7.3
37. Payne 7.11*
38. Petrucelle 6.97
39. Banfield 6.89*
40. Guelfi 6.76*
41. Petty 6.62*
42. Starcevich 6.55
43. Spargo 6.35**
44. Nathan Murphy 6.17
45. Amartey 6.12*
46. Coffield 5.99
47. Coleman-Jones 5.83
48. Paton 5.54
49. O Baker 5.44*

So you are right danster, there are 24 players ahead of Rayner on performance so far. But they are not exactly the 24 you named, but you weren't too far off to be fair. The thing is Rayner in 2024 has gone ahead of a heap of them, and looks poised to rise up this list all going well for him. There are quite a few ahead of him who have benefitted from having the vast majority of their matches played skewed towards them being much more mature than Rayner. The other thing is that Rayner has done an ACL and is one of only a small number from this draft to suffer really serious injuries. That has clearly handicapped him a little.

Another thing to note here is the ruckmen seem to accumulate a lot of ratings points, and i think the ratings points are skewed a lot more towards them now with the new ruck rules. So ruckmen appear to be over-rated by the ratings system. And key position players are clearly under-rated by ratings system, Taylor, Naughton, Balta and Allen in particular would clearly be amongst the most valuable 10 or so players from this draft crop if traded this year.

We can also see there are 11 x 1 Asterisk players ahead of Rayner and I think all going as expected he will reel most of them in over the next few years.

Last comment here on this. Sam Taylor is I think now in reality top of this draft class based on both performance so far and future value. And Oskar Baker is yet another absolute ****ing spud taken by the Demons at this draft. What on earth were they thinking?

 

[Elixuh]

Lol, how many players get 23 touches and 1.2 goals per game over a season danster?

In 2024 4 players Bontempelli, Warner, Heeney, Josh Kelly, that is it. But this is an exceptional year as we are about to see...

In 2023 1 player, Dustin Martin

In 2022 zero players

In 2021 Petracca, Bontempelli

So in the last 4 seasons all of 6 different players in the whole AFL have reached this "breakout" pass mark.


But then we move to 50 goals per season, and lets standardise that to a 22 game average of 2.3 per game as you used averages for the other pass marks, and let's see how many players achieve that....

In 2024 only 5 players, but Fritsch nowhere near it

In 2023 12 players, Fritsch not even amongst them

In 2022 14 players, Fritsch at the bottom end of the range

In 2021 12 players, Fritsch near the bottom end of the range


And disposals 25 touches per game

In 2024 30 players

In 2023 38 players

In 2022 35 players

In 2021 42 players


I think you have your criteria skewed a bit somehow.

In 2024 only 18 players in the AFL average more disposals than Rayner at over a goal per game. Remembering too this is not taking any account of his defensive stats. Let's look at players who average 1+ goals, 3+ tackles and 14+ disposals.

Rankine, Warner, Dylan Moore, Keays, Bontempelli, Heeney, Josh Kelly, Rayner, Petracca, Horne-Francis, J Cripps.

Only 11 names on that list Danster, the list that calls for offensive & defensive play combined. And Rayner is on it.

Danster is just a harsh marker, unless you're basically the best player in the comp you're a spud.

 

[dmac_55]

Danster is just a harsh marker, unless you're basically the best player in the comp you're a spud.

Or kick 6 goals in a granny or make a AA 40 man squad

 

[Happy_Neale]

So he's producing marginally better now than 6 years ago? that's what you're going with? Come on, you're better than that.

Career averages, not six years ago. Don’t make me explain how averages work again.

So you have gone from saying he hasn’t improved to agreeing that he has? Apology accepted.

 

[jasonrampage2010]

Why is anyone still feeding this troll?

 

[Happy_Neale]

Why is anyone still feeding this troll?

We’re willing him to 1000 posts

 

[paulige]

Danster is just a harsh marker, unless you're basically the best player in the comp you're a spud.

The comp according to Danny:

 

[CarterS]

danster would you like to come, I’ll shout you a selfie with the great man Cam Rayner himself

 

[Rosscoe_666]

14.6 touches, 3.2 marks 1.1 goals is dominating? oh geez, we've reached all time lows here. It's' totally cringe.

Last year
14.2 touches 3.9 marks, 0.9 goals. Keep glossing over this if you like.

It's taken a while, but I've figured it out now. Danster168, you're really Andrew Bolt! Same circular arguments, same unsubstantiated statistics, same denials, same pathetic insults .... I knew I'd seen that argument style before. Do I get a prize, or just called a "Leftist" now?

 

[M Malice]

Rayner Train leaving from platform 1, All Aboard.

2) This Lion is a premiership wildcard​

For seven seasons, No.1 draft pick Cam Rayner has teased with his limitless talent, occasionally exploding with flashes of brilliance. Teased, then exploded. Coming off a fifth-place finish in Brisbane's best and fairest last year, we just might be entering the prime of the young Lion's career. In a finals-like cauldron against Sydney, Rayner was unstoppable with his ability to break tackles in congestion and explode to the outside, kicking two goals and giving off two others from his 20 disposals. His second goal, where he swatted aside multiple Swans before sizzling a kick from 45m, was breathtaking. His form has been steadily improving since Brisbane's mid-season bye and has the capacity to raise the Lions' ceiling come September, should they make it that far. – Michael Whiting

 

[danster168]

Average career player ratings 2017 draft crop below. Pretty sure they are all playing now bar Nathan Murphy and I've captured everyone who is playing still.

Things to note

* = has benefitted from playing much fewer games at younger ages, and more at a mature age.
** = tall players who played a lot of games from a young age so should fairly be adjusted to a higher average player rating.

1. T Kelly 12.2*
2. Uniacke 11.98
3. Moore 11.37*
4. Worpedo 11.1
5. Taylor 10.58**
6. Brayshaw 10.54
7. Switkowski 10.54*
8. Meek 9.97*
9. T Dekoning 9.92*
10. Cerra 9.9
11. Xerri 9.79*
12. Richards 9.75
13. L Baker 9.59*
14. Bailey 9.57
15. Barely Avfritsch 9.33*
16. Daniels 9.24
17. Liam Ryan 9.18*
18. Naughton 9.15**
19. Miller 9.11*
20. Higgins 8.92
21. Miers 8.88
22. Balta 8.69
23. Powell 8.55
24. D Fogarty 8.45*
25. Rayner 8.44
26. Farrell 8.3*
27. Allen 8.26
28. McCartin 8.12**
29. Mihocek 7.98*
30. Ballard 7.90
31. Stephenson 7.78
32. Dow 7.64
33. L Fogarty 7.6*
34. B Zerk 7.58*
35. L Murphy 7.49
36. Clark 7.3
37. Payne 7.11*
38. Petrucelle 6.97
39. Banfield 6.89*
40. Guelfi 6.76*
41. Petty 6.62*
42. Starcevich 6.55
43. Spargo 6.35**
44. Nathan Murphy 6.17
45. Amartey 6.12*
46. Coffield 5.99
47. Coleman-Jones 5.83
48. Paton 5.54
49. O Baker 5.44*

So you are right danster, there are 24 players ahead of Rayner on performance so far. But they are not exactly the 24 you named, but you weren't too far off to be fair. The thing is Rayner in 2024 has gone ahead of a heap of them, and looks poised to rise up this list all going well for him. There are quite a few ahead of him who have benefitted from having the vast majority of their matches played skewed towards them being much more mature than Rayner. The other thing is that Rayner has done an ACL and is one of only a small number from this draft to suffer really serious injuries. That has clearly handicapped him a little.

Another thing to note here is the ruckmen seem to accumulate a lot of ratings points, and i think the ratings points are skewed a lot more towards them now with the new ruck rules. So ruckmen appear to be over-rated by the ratings system. And key position players are clearly under-rated by ratings system, Taylor, Naughton, Balta and Allen in particular would clearly be amongst the most valuable 10 or so players from this draft crop if traded this year.

We can also see there are 11 x 1 Asterisk players ahead of Rayner and I think all going as expected he will reel most of them in over the next few years.

Last comment here on this. Sam Taylor is I think now in reality top of this draft class based on both performance so far and future value. And Oskar Baker is yet another absolute ****ing spud taken by the Demons at this draft. What on earth were they thinking?

lol. why would you even use player ratings when I debunked them ages ago with previous posts?

 

[danster168]

Why is anyone still feeding this troll?

troll? dude, you can choose to ignore the cold hard facts that I laid bare. 14.6 possessions from 14.2 possessions last year with more midfield time and apparently this is improvement? spare me. Everyone is just letting their loyalty blind their ability to analyse a very average footballer that hasn't fired a shot for 6 years.

 

[danster168]

Career averages, not six years ago. Don’t make me explain how averages work again.

So you have gone from saying he hasn’t improved to agreeing that he has? Apology accepted.

That's a foolish argument.

2018: 13.5 disposals, 3.5 marks, 0.9 goals
2024: 14.6 disposals, 3.2 marks, 1.1 goals.

And you're making a case that he has improved? That's horrendous. He's getting more cba's now too so you could argue he has actually got worse
.

 

[Elixuh]

That's a foolish argument.

2018: 13.5 disposals, 3.5 marks, 0.9 goals
2024: 14.6 disposals, 3.2 marks, 1.1 goals.

And you're making a case that he has improved? That's horrendous. He's getting more cba's now too so you could argue he has actually got worse
.

How do you always get the gifs in your posts to appear so small Danny? When I post gifs they appear quite large. I've always wondered.

 

[mighty_lions]

troll? dude, you can choose to ignore the cold hard facts that I laid bare. 14.6 possessions from 14.2 possessions last year with more midfield time and apparently this is improvement? spare me. Everyone is just letting their loyalty blind their ability to analyse a very average footballer that hasn't fired a shot for 6 years.

15.06

what do you think this number is Danny, Cyril Rioli career average disposals, absolute maximum damage, I just rewatched the game an absolute powerful performance

 

[Meteoric Rise]

That's a foolish argument.

2018: 13.5 disposals, 3.5 marks, 0.9 goals
2024: 14.6 disposals, 3.2 marks, 1.1 goals.

And you're making a case that he has improved? That's horrendous. He's getting more cba's now too so you could argue he has actually got worse
.

What, like Petty, Fritsch and Spargo from their first years?

Every single one of them has a worse player rating this year than in the first year they played more than 1 game.

But Rayner alone of all of them has a better player rating in 2024 than his first year. Miles better.

Cope harder danster.

 

[danster168]

15.06

what do you think this number is Danny, Cyril Rioli career average disposals, absolute maximum damage, I just rewatched the game an absolute powerful performance

Not going to entertain the discussion of comparing a borderline fringe player that many bris fans wanted dropped Cyril.

Rayner is Gary Rohan. Gary Rohan is faster, has kicked more clutch goals, is equally good overhead. Both have disappointed on the big stage. They are basically the same player. But Gary Rohan eventually stood up in a final.

 

[Elixuh]

Not going to entertain the discussion of comparing a borderline fringe player that many bris fans wanted dropped Cyril.

Rayner is Gary Rohan. Gary Rohan is faster, has kicked more clutch goals, is equally good overhead. Both have disappointed on the big stage. They are basically the same player. But Gary Rohan eventually stood up in a final.

Has Gary Rohan kicked 6 in a grand final or made a 40 man AA squad?

 

[danster168]

What, like Petty, Fritsch and Spargo from their first years?

Every single one of them has a worse player rating this year than in the first year they played more than 1 game.

But Rayner alone of all of them has a better player rating in 2024 than his first year. Miles better.

Cope harder danster.

you're player ratings are embarrassing. You choose Rowbottom over Charlie Curnow. Nice one. Imagine, trying to justify Rayner as being a top 30 of his draft using a generic player ratings that no-one understands or talks about and don't actually watch the games.

Um Petty got offered 800k over 5 years from Adelaide. Fair to say that he showed a level of footy that Rayner would never get to. He'd never get an offer like that because he'll never produce like that. Fritsch has 2 AA squads and 6 in a granny next to his name. His accolades speak for themselves. What does Rayner have? Worst on ground in a granny, and improved his disposals by 1 in 6 years.

1 in 6 years! let that sink in. What a break out!

 

[danster168]

Has Gary Rohan kicked 6 in a grand final or made a 40 man AA squad?

you know the answer to this.

 

[paulige]

Not going to entertain the discussion of comparing a borderline fringe player that many bris fans wanted dropped Cyril.

Rayner is Gary Rohan. Gary Rohan is faster, has kicked more clutch goals, is equally good overhead. Both have disappointed on the big stage. They are basically the same player. But Gary Rohan eventually stood up in a final.

2023 QF: 16 disp, 3 goals, 5 i50, 3 clearances, 116 SC points

In fact, His third goal late in the second gave us the lead - a lead we never relinquished.

Could you please define “stand up in a final”?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

you're player ratings are embarrassing. You choose Rowbottom over Charlie Curnow. Nice one. Imagine, trying to justify Rayner as being a top 30 of his draft using a generic player ratings that no-one understands or talks about and don't actually watch the games.

Um Petty got offered 800k over 5 years from Adelaide. Fair to say that he showed a level of footy that Rayner would never get to. He'd never get an offer like that because he'll never produce like that. Fritsch has 2 AA squads and 6 in a granny next to his name. His accolades speak for themselves. What does Rayner have? Worst on ground in a granny, and improved his disposals by 1 in 6 years.

1 in 6 years! let that sink in. What a break out!

Petty has 6 lifetime coaches votes Danster. And what is his best B & F finish?

Rayner finished 5th B & F in a team that went within a kick of winning the flag. Petty, Fritsch or Spargo will never do anything of that magnitude.

 

[paulige]

Petty has 6 lifetime coaches votes Danster. And what is his best B & F finish?

Rayner finished 5th B & F in a team that went within a kick of winning the flag. Petty, Fritsch or Spargo will never do anything of that magnitude.

Fritsch came close through, he almost cracked the top 10 when they won - respectable effort.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Fritsch came close through, he almost cracked the top 10 when they won - respectable effort.

He finished 4th of the specialist forwards behind McDonald, Bullen, and Pickett. Danster couldn't get over it, still hasn't.

 

[danster168]

Petty has 6 lifetime coaches votes Danster. And what is his best B & F finish?

Rayner finished 5th B & F in a team that went within a kick of winning the flag. Petty, Fritsch or Spargo will never do anything of that magnitude.

maybe address my points if you're going to reply.