Cam Rayner

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Heā€™s likely pinching Brownlow votes off Lachie Neale too šŸ¤¬
It's Bont brownlow this year anyway. There is a media push to get one to him in the works.. "surely surely he's gotta win at least one" is already in overdrive.
 

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I think it's time to shut this thread down. It's obvious to anyone and everyone that Cam Rayner is not a spud. He is one of the most damaging players in the game right now. The X factor all good teams need to take them to the summit.

The litmus test will be finals.
He's been MIA throughout most of his career when it comes to the big stage.
 
The litmus test will be finals.
He's been MIA throughout most of his career when it comes to the big stage.

He's been inconsistent irrespective of finals.

I do think he is a big game player though. He certainly was as a junior.
 
The litmus test will be finals.
He's been MIA throughout most of his career when it comes to the big stage.

If you actually look at his finals...

19yo 2 quiet games, managed a goal in each.

20yo Player rating 8.7, 9.3 managed a goal in each, and 2 goal assists v the flag winning Tigers. Those ratings would be 10.9 and 11.6 in normal length games.

22yo First year back off his ACL, missed a final then player ratings of 1.9, 7.9.

23yo In the votes agains Port, then two weaker performances. His ratings were 18.7, 4.7, 3.8

I am going to leave his first 2 finals as a 19yo out of this. Since then Rayner's average player rating is 8.5. Whilst this is by no means great, it is not too bad at all for a player playing almost exclusively forward. He has played 3 weaker finals, 3 decent finals, and one excellent final.

If you look at say Gryan Miers from the same draft, played his first final in 2019 as a 20yo. We will also ignore his weaker first 2 finals as a 19yo, but I have includd his 3rd final as a 19yo as he had his second strongest finals rating ever, so he doesn't need a mulligan for that one. His finals ratings are as follows;

13.9, (1.6, 3.9, 2.3, 12.9 these 4 x 2020 finals adjusted for normal game time), 6.2, 7.9, 3.5, 3.9, 17.5, 8.1.

Miers averages a 7.4 player rating in his finals. They play a similar position, albeit in different ways. Drafted at same time, same age and I have counted them both from year 3 in the system.

Rayner is the age now where we can reasonably expect his finals performances reflect how good he actually is. His performances until now in finals have been approximately AFL average for a forward, which is not too bad given all those finals were pre-prime age.
 

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