Expansion Canberra

[Johnny Bananas]

If Tassie come in, we'll need a 20th team too. Despite the competition from other sports, Canberra is fertile ground for expansion, with a population bigger than Newcastle, a pretty decent population growth rate and a big talent pool nearby.

There's enough of an Australian rules heritage to bed a team in too, with games being played there regularly since the 90s. Australian rules had the biggest profile in Canberra until the 80s and the advent of the Canberra Raiders. A team of its own would help shift the Barassi line back north.

At what point will GWS gain enough popularity in Sydney that they don't need to play games in Canberra any more? You'd figure a Canberra-only team will only be realistic at that point.

 

[Teen Wolf]

At what point will GWS gain enough popularity in Sydney that they don't need to play games in Canberra any more? You'd figure a Canberra-only team will only be realistic at that point.

Why would that suddenly be realistic? GWS aren't the reason Canberra doesn't have its own AFL team.

And the reason GWS only have a 7-game contract at Sydney Shitground Stadium isn't because they're a small club. No AFL club, regardless of size, can play on an oval while horses roam the forward-line.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Why would that suddenly be realistic? GWS aren't the reason Canberra doesn't have its own AFL team.

Because the AFL aren't going to put a team in Canberra while GWS are still playing games there. I can see why they wouldn't want to add more expansion teams until GWS have achieved off-field success either.

And the reason GWS only have a 7-game contract at Sydney Shitground Stadium isn't because they're a small club. No AFL club, regardless of size, can play on an oval while horses roam the forward-line.

That doesn't require them to play games in Canberra specifically. There's Blacktown, or several regional NSW cities.

 

[Teen Wolf]

I can see why they wouldn't want to add more expansion teams until GWS have achieved off-field success either.

There you go again, blaming GWS. Maybe the AFL just doesn't think Canberra actually is fertile expansion ground, regardless of how successful the Giants are?

That doesn't require them to play games in Canberra specifically. There's Blacktown, or several regional NSW cities.

Or even Los Angeles! Precisely the point, if GWS move their secondary home ground to somewhere else, Canberra's viability as an AFL market does not magically improve.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

There you go again, blaming GWS.

What on earth are you talking about?

Or even Los Angeles! Precisely the point, if GWS move their secondary home ground to somewhere else, Canberra's viability as an AFL market does not magically improve.

Yes it does. GWS at present play games in Canberra and they'd need to move out for an expansion team. By your logic, the AFL should create a team in Tasmania and have Hawthorn continue to play there concurrently.

 

[Teen Wolf]

What on earth are you talking about?

Maybe the AFL just doesn't think Canberra actually is fertile expansion ground, regardless of how successful the Giants are?

Yes it does. GWS at present play games in Canberra and they'd need to move out for an expansion team. By your logic, the AFL should create a team in Tasmania and have Hawthorn continue to play there concurrently.

No, my logic is the AFL will put new teams in Canberra and Tasmania if they want to. And then GWS and Hawthorn will find new secondary home grounds elsewhere, you already agreed to that point when mentioning Blacktown etc.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Maybe the AFL just doesn't think Canberra actually is fertile expansion ground, regardless of how successful the Giants are?

Evidence?

No, my logic is the AFL will put new teams in Canberra and Tasmania if they want to. And then GWS and Hawthorn will find new secondary home grounds elsewhere, you already agreed to that point when mentioning Blacktown etc.

When Canberra is one of the pillars helping support GWS right now? Not likely. The AFL are not about to embark on an expensive investment that endangers their previous expensive investment. Their concern will be GWS' health first and Canberra on its own after that.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Evidence?

The lack of AFL team there, even before GWS existed, probably speaks to that best.

When Canberra is one of the pillars helping support GWS right now? Not likely. The AFL are not about to embark on an expensive investment that endangers their previous expensive investment. Their concern will be GWS' health first and Canberra on its own after that.

If you don't think GWS can survive without Canberra, we'll just have to disagree. But it clearly means you're blaming GWS as the reason for Canberra not having its own team, so I'm not sure why you're acting coy about that.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The lack of AFL team there, even before GWS existed, probably speaks to that best.

I'm talking about the future and the need for a 20th team. The past is irrelevant. Seeing as three different AFL teams have sold games there and achieved decent crowds (last five years being over 10k average), I wouldn't say there's any evidence to suggest the AFL wouldn't consider expanding there going forward.

If you don't think GWS can survive without Canberra, we'll just have to disagree.

Until they've achieved a strong following in Sydney, I wouldn't be taking any financial wins away from them.

But it clearly means you're blaming GWS as the reason for Canberra not having its own team, so I'm not sure why you're acting coy about that.

No it doesn't. That's you jumping to conclusions, because I said nothing of the sort. I just said it's necessary for GWS to leave before Canberra can get its own team, and that it's best for them not to leave until they have a good following in Sydney.

 

[Teen Wolf]

I'm talking about the future and the need for a 20th team. The past is irrelevant. Seeing as three different AFL teams have sold games there and achieved decent crowds (last five years being over 10k average), I wouldn't say there's any evidence to suggest the AFL wouldn't consider expanding there going forward.

What has changed to make Canberra a more viable AFL market in the last ten years? If there is something, you failed to mention it in your pitch.

The past is irrelevant? And yet you're bringing up "Australian rules heritage" and previous match attendance figures.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

What has changed to make Canberra a more viable AFL market in the last ten years? If there is something, you failed to mention it in your pitch.

Population growth. Canberra is soon to pass 500 000 people, and has grown at a pretty steady 1.5% pa for a while now.

The past is irrelevant? And yet you're bringing up "Australian rules heritage" and previous match attendance figures.

Past expansion efforts (or lack thereof) are irrelevant. The AFL showed that when they gave the Gold Coast a team despite the Bears having a torrid time there and North choosing not to move there.

Call me crazy, but I think that having some people there already who like the game is an important factor when considering expansion. Maybe it isn't to you though.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Population growth. Canberra is soon to pass 500 000 people, and has grown at a pretty steady 1.5% pa for a while now.

Exactly, it's growing at the same rate as it was ten years ago when the AFL last overlooked Canberra as an expansion market.

Call me crazy, but I think that having some people there already who like the game is an important factor when considering expansion. Maybe it isn't to you though.

Obviously well down on the AFL's list of boxes to tick, and I understand why.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Exactly, it's growing at the same rate as it was ten years ago when the AFL last overlooked Canberra as an expansion market.

And back then it had less than 400 000 people. It is now approaching 500 000, and two areas with bigger populations have now received expansion teams in that time. So I don't know what your point is, the situation on the ground has changed fundamentally since 2008.

 

[The_Reaper]

Canberra makes significantly more sense than any other city for team 20

 

[Walshawk]

No need for a 20th team. 19 can work perfectly well. 24 rounds, two byes is exactly what we have now.
But if we did, Canberra is the best option. However, much would need to be done, including a new stadium in a new location. The locals won’t let Manuka be expanded and 13k - 15k is not enough for a main club venue.

 

[Canberra Pear]

No need for a 20th team. 19 can work perfectly well. 24 rounds, two byes is exactly what we have now.
But if we did, Canberra is the best option. However, much would need to be done, including a new stadium in a new location. The locals won’t let Manuka be expanded and 13k - 15k is not enough for a main club venue.

The city has been looking to build a new 25-30k stadium for the Brumbies and Raiders (and a hypothetical A-League team). Our best chance for a new stadium is to piggyback on the construction of that and convince the ACT Government to make it a multipurpose oval configuration.

The AFL needs to get in early and influence the plans for the new stadium as I can't imagine Canberra having two separate 25k stadiums. Teaming up with cricket and dangling a BBL team would help as well.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Why every Melbourne-based team would work as a relocation to Canberra: A Twitter thread

 

[kid_a]

It'll be looong time before an Canberra based club comes into the comp, let alone is genuinely thought about.

I will say though that its makes more sense than the fanciful ideas people have of a Darwin, New Zealand or North QLD based side.

Maybe when 2030 rolls around we can realistically have this conversation.

 

[Canberra Pear]

It'll be looong time before an Canberra based club comes into the comp, let alone is genuinely thought about.

I will say though that its makes more sense than the fanciful ideas people have of a Darwin, New Zealand or North QLD based side.

Maybe when 2030 rolls around we can realistically have this conversation.

A standalone AFLW team might be a better option in the medium term.

The running costs would be way lower and a good test for the Canberra market before a men's team. And Canberra also has a good record of getting behind standalone women's teams (Canberra United in the W-League, UC Capitals in the WNBL).

 

[Teen Wolf]

A standalone AFLW team might be a better option in the medium term.

The running costs would be way lower and a good test for the Canberra market before a men's team.

I agree... as long as we replace the word "might" with the word "wouldn't", and "in the medium term" with "ever".

Turns out it's even harder to get an AFLW team. There are AFL clubs out there with heaps of money and/or world class facilities and/or a strong local talent pool that can't manage it.

And Canberra also has a good record of getting behind standalone women's teams (Canberra United in the W-League, UC Capitals in the WNBL).

And yet Canberra still doesn't have an A-League or NBL team. Or Sheffield Shield team. Even if they eventually do, it's not going to be the overstated support of some pre-existing women's teams getting it over the line.

 

[Pippen94]

Why would that suddenly be realistic? GWS aren't the reason Canberra doesn't have its own AFL team.

And the reason GWS only have a 7-game contract at Sydney Shitground Stadium isn't because they're a small club. No AFL club, regardless of size, can play on an oval while horses roam the forward-line.

Funny Canberra crowds are bigger during regular season than at showground - just move gws down soutg

 

[Colonial]

Funny Canberra crowds are bigger during regular season than at showground - just move gws down soutg

Maybe your Wanderers can move.

 

[CURVE]

Population growth. Canberra is soon to pass 500 000 people, and has grown at a pretty steady 1.5% pa for a while now.

Actually that is not correct, according to the ACT Population Report released by the ACT Government in 2019 Canberra's population growth rate has also been increasing, it is now around 1.9% pa and expected to continue to increase over the next decade. It is estimated that Canberra will have a population of over 600,000 by 2030 and 750,000 by 2058. I'm not sure if Covid has had any effect this year, but looking at the number of apartment buildings that have been completed this year and new suburbs coming on line I get the feeling that demand is still outstripping supply.

Another thing that perhaps needs to be taken into consideration when talking about Canberra, is the neighbouring towns and cities within 60/90 minutes of Canberra, there is a lot growth outside the ACT border and a decent percentage of the people from the towns would rather support the Canberra teams than a Sydney team because Canberra is easier to get to and easier to get around.

Past expansion efforts (or lack thereof) are irrelevant. The AFL showed that when they gave the Gold Coast a team despite the Bears having a torrid time there and North choosing not to move there.

Call me crazy, but I think that having some people there already who like the game is an important factor when considering expansion. Maybe it isn't to you though.

I do think Canberra is a better long term option than Tasmania, and perhaps even Gold Coast and Western Sydney, but I can't see it happening anytime soon, which is a real shame, because it is a popular sport in Canberra.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Actually that is not correct, according to the ACT Population Report released by the ACT Government in 2019 Canberra's population growth rate has also been increasing, it is now around 1.9% pa and expected to continue to increase over the next decade.

ABS says 1.5% in 2019, but maybe it's projected to increase going forward.

Regional population, 2018-19 financial year

Statistics about the population and components of change (births, deaths, migration) for Australia's capital cities and regions

www.abs.gov.au

 

[almuz]

A Canberra team could work, two issues are -1) it's too cold for night games in winter and 2) logistics of getting 12K people to the stadium are pretty annoying too. Will be better once/if the light rail goes through Manuka.