Opinion The 'Carlton related stuff that doesn't need it's own thread' thread Part 3

[4flagsin5yrs]

We can't win the premiership because Weitering, Mcgovern and Saad were all injured early in the year and we leaked too many goals 2 months ago. It's genius!

Let 'em think that.

That's good.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

What's disingenuous? They have the Dogs in the premiership window and us not...

It's a graph based on percentage

I thought it was based on ranking in offence and defence. Which is a bit different to %.

Our position clearly pulled down by teams scoring heavily against us during injury crisis.

 

[skadoosh]

It's that good!

AM I a mod now?

Your decision to crop the photo at a point which includes the green contrast of the grass in relation to the greyness of the concrete stand cannot be understated.

A great artistic choice and one I highly applaud.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Anyone who might be undecided about whether Champion Data is data collection gone mad (aka whack jobs) needs to have a look at their top 10 listed players after round 16 that they released today.

No Carlton players in the top 10. No Patrick Cripps

9

Patrick Cripps

Age

29

Ht

195cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.9

5star

K

9.8

4star

HB

16.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

5.8

5star

CL

7.4

5star

D

21.0

5star

K

10.1

4star

HB

10.9

5star

M

2.5

3star

T

3.8

4star

CL

6.3

5star

D

12.6

4star

K

4.8

2star

HB

7.8

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.2

5star

CL

1.4

4star

. However there us space in there for the likes of Dan Houston

5

Dan Houston

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.2

5star

K

11.8

4star

HB

6.4

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

3.0

5star

MG

289.2

4star

D

17.6

4star

K

11.6

4star

HB

6.0

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.4

4star

MG

319.9

5star

D

16.6

4star

K

12.4

5star

HB

4.2

4star

M

7.0

5star

T

2.6

4star

MG

279.8

5star

and Bailey Dale

31

Bailey Dale

Age

27

Ht

188cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.2

3star

K

7.6

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

1.6

4star

MG

117.4

2star

D

9.0

2star

K

5.1

2star

HB

3.9

3star

M

2.3

2star

T

1.7

3star

MG

117.4

2star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.0

3star

M

1.4

2star

T

2.0

4star

.

Spare me.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Anyone who might be undecided about whether Champion Data is data collection gone mad (aka whack jobs) needs to have a look at their top 10 listed players after round 16 that they released today.

No Carlton players in the top 10. No Patrick Cripps. However there us space in there for the likes of Dan Houston and Bailey Dale.

Spare me.

They are obsessed with Dan Houston. He's been their best half back for years now. Never seen him impact a contest defensively in my life.

 

[blueboy25]

They are obsessed with Dan Houston. He's been their best half back for years now. Never seen him impact a contest defensively in my life.

He did kick a goal after the siren to beat Essendon last year. That must get him some bonus points

 

[BigFrizz36]

They are obsessed with Dan Houston. He's been their best half back for years now. Never seen him impact a contest defensively in my life.

You could offer me five Dan Houston's in exchange for Patrick Cripps and I would laugh in your face.

And yet champion data have Dan Houston as a top 10 player and Patrick cripps not a top 10 player.

 

[Manhattanite]

The AFL is a clown show at the moment

At least the umpiring is the best it’s ever been


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[JoeyPBLUES]

You could offer me five Dan Houston's in exchange for Patrick Cripps and I would laugh in your face.

And yet champion data have Dan Houston as a top 10 player and Patrick cripps not a top 10 player.

I'd take 4 Dan Houstons & we keep Crippa.. can we get a deal like that done?

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I thought it was based on ranking in offence and defence. Which is a bit different to %.

Our position clearly pulled down by teams scoring heavily against us during injury crisis.

The teams in the premiership window are the 3 teams with the highest percentage.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

I thought it was based on ranking in offence and defence. Which is a bit different to %.

Our position clearly pulled down by teams scoring heavily against us during injury crisis.

Yeah, it's basic analysis at it's best (or worst).
Two axis points; points for and points against
Plot where each team sits in both
Only those who sit top 6 in both are considered 'in the window', regardless of where they sit on the ladder, current form, or who those games have been against. No consideration for teams that lead the league, or rated highly in specific metrics.

Something a high school student might do for a math assignment.

 

[RPCB]

I'd take 4 Dan Houstons & we keep Crippa.. can we get a deal like that done?

No.

Because I can’t see 4 players from our list we would have to get rid of for the list spots needed for 4 Dan Houston’s.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

More than happy to be disregarded by everyone on our path to 17 and beyond.

Yeah I don't really care about our perceived favouritism... just more about pointing out how shallow their analysis is

 

[blues4flag]

Sydney are miles out in front, but interestingly, in the past 34 seasons (from 1990), the minor premier has only won the flag 12 times (although 3 from 3 in the past 3 years).
You're almost twice as likely to finish either runner up or 3rd (22 times) if you end the season on top of the ladder.
Swans can keep the favourite status as far as I'm concerned.

It's still resulted in more premiers than any other spot on the ladder, marginally better than 2nd and 3rd. Historically, if you're not top 3, you're not winning it.

 

[blues4flag]

I thought it was based on ranking in offence and defence. Which is a bit different to %.

Our position clearly pulled down by teams scoring heavily against us during injury crisis.

Slightly different but effectively same as defence. Top 6 in either category is fairly generous.

If you assume there's 3 teams that meet the criteria each year, it's no better a measure for premiership success than finishing top 3 on the ladder.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

The AFL is a clown show at the moment

better put as a bigger clown show than ever!

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

It's still resulted in more premiers than any other spot on the ladder, marginally better than 2nd and 3rd. Historically, if you're not top 3, you're not winning it.

Yes, top 3 is the best place to be, but it heavily favoured top spot a LONG time ago, which skews the stats.
In the modern era, you're more likely to lose from 1st, although statistically slightly better than 2nd.

Premiers from 1st since 1990 - 12 from 34 (35.3%)

1st - 12 wins
2nd - 11 wins
3rd - 7 wins
4th - 2 wins
5th - 1 win
6th - 0 wins
7th - 1 win
8th - 0 wins

Premiers from 1st prior to 1990 - 55 from 93 seasons (59.1%)
The minor prems came runner up 29 times, so top spot pretty much guaranteed a grand final berth back then, with only 9 minor premiers failing to make the grand final in 93 seasons (90% rate for GF appearance - 65% chance of winning).
By comparison, the minor prem has failed to make the grand final 8 times in the past 34 seasons (76% chance of GF appearance - 46% chance of winning).

The odds certainly don't favour 1st like they used to.

 

[sbwan]

Yes, top 3 is the best place to be, but it heavily favoured top spot a LONG time ago, which skews the stats.
In the modern era, you're more likely to lose from 1st, although statistically slightly better than 2nd.

Premiers from 1st since 1990 - 12 from 34 (35.3%)

1st - 12 wins
2nd - 11 wins
3rd - 7 wins
4th - 2 wins
5th - 1 win
6th - 0 wins
7th - 1 win
8th - 0 wins

Premiers from 1st prior to 1990 - 55 from 93 seasons (59.1%)
The minor prems came runner up 29 times, so top spot pretty much guaranteed a grand final berth back then, with only 9 minor premiers failing to make the grand final in 93 seasons (90% rate for GF appearance - 65% chance of winning).
By comparison, the minor prem has failed to make the grand final 8 times in the past 34 seasons (76% chance of GF appearance - 46% chance of winning).

The odds certainly don't favour 1st like they used to.

It'd be interesting to factor in where the minor premier was an interstate side, who ends up losing to a Victorian side in the Grand Final. I'd bet that's a fair few examples.

 

[Sector 7G]

They are obsessed with Dan Houston. He's been their best half back for years now. Never seen him impact a contest defensively in my life.

Houston is playing the same role as Nic Newman. Get easy ball off HB. The player rating system punishes players making mistakes and therefore undervalues contested players.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Houston is playing the same role as Nic Newman. Get easy ball off HB. The player rating system punishes players making mistakes and therefore undervalues contested players.

It also simply doesn't handle defenders well. First job is to defend your opponent but generally there's minimal weighting given to the performance of their opponents as that level of analysis is extremely involved and they favour clickable faster 'analysis' than that. So they measure in one percenters and one on one contests and things. But they don't measure if you completely blanket your opponent so well in a pocket that no one ever kicks it near you like Newman has done to a few opponents in the past. Eg one of the games Toby only touched it 4 times.

 

[Sector 7G]

It also simply doesn't handle defenders well. First job is to defend your opponent but generally there's minimal weighting given to the performance of their opponents as that level of analysis is extremely involved and they favour clickable faster 'analysis' than that. So they measure in one percenters and one on one contests and things. But they don't measure if you completely blanket your opponent so well in a pocket that no one ever kicks it near you like Newman has done to a few opponents in the past. Eg one of the games Toby only touched it 4 times.

Agreed. Saad is easily the best small defender in the league. CD ratings and AA team selections are for interceptors and distributers.

 

[DangerousD]

Jordan Lewis is on "on the coach". Starts off by complimenting us in a round about way. States how good our list, how many highly ranked players we gave etc.

Then frames it as 'will Carlton be deemed as a failure if they don't win a flag in the next few years".

What part of saying we will have under achieved if we don’t win a premiership in the next few years do you disagree with?

 

[DangerousD]

I’m a cynic of these media personalities like brown, Lewis,

They don’t write the script or the message they just deliver it in their own mumbled, incoherent words.

But…. I’ve seen enough of the Fox and CH7 narrative over the last few years to know that they peddle whatever will crest a big story/headline.

What I find distasteful about what Lewis said is that we have only this year entered “our window” and even that was being questioned when we sitting just in the fringe of the 8 six weeks ago.

To now be saying that we could potentially fritter away our “golden opportunity “ if we don’t win the flag in the next 2 years is sensationalist garbage!!!

All designed to create the narrative that we are at risk of being a flaming plane crash into oblivion.

This is created to intensify pressure on the club/team through heightening the risk of failure and need for immediate success.




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I’m not sure how we have only entered our window this year, coming off a prelim loss of 14 points last year and choking the last 4 rounds to miss finals in 2022.

Regardless of when our window opened, I agree 2 years is tight and we should be challenging for quite a few more

If after this season and the next two, we haven’t won a premiership, then Lewis is right, we have underachieved, I have no idea how this opinion is criticised or even remotely offensive to any Carlton supporter.

 

[sbwan]

Interesting paragraph from the drug supporting journalist Connolly:


He is of course referring to rounds 2 and 3 of that season - then next minute in round 4 a team we had beaten by nearly 11 goals in the elimination final of 2011 somehow managed to beat us by 5 goals 6 months later.

Wonder how that happened?

Also, while it's strictly true that our run of two consecutive 10-goal margins is the first in a long time, we won by 59 points and 60 points back-to-back last year, and had 5 weeks in a row of 50+ wins.

 

[DangerousD]

Fairly accurate obviously. They dont mention that there were 2 years teams have won whilst not being in their demographic. They don't tell us who but my guess would be dogs 2016 and dees 2021?

They mention it nearly every time they show it, they then mention the teams who weren’t in the top right of the graphic were all above the line.

As in all had a top 6 defence.

Currently we would have to buck the trend of the past 18 years.