Racing Caulfield Cup 2024

[Jugada]

Another go at shuffling the deck chairs for rankings post 3rd acceptances

1. ZARDOZI - From no where to #1 seed but that Sydney form looks to be travelling a lot better than the Melbourne form and she was great in the Metrop and wins that every time if she just has an ounce of luck. Meets LL significantly better at the weights too so can't see him beating her home very often.

2. SAYEDATY SEDATY - Just needs to get a run but with not much standing up here his form lines are looking extremely strong. Seeing the likes of City of Troy, Los Angeles, Jan Brueghel, Deira Mile and Bellum Justum in the form guide just looking better and better as the season goes on.

3. DUKE DE SESSA - Purely based on the fact he is 50-1 but was only as couple lengths off Buckaroo and Eliyass in the Turnbull and you know he will appreciate the step up in trip where as they may not. If we get a wet track he goes into all exotics.

4. COCO SUN - Expect she runs well at WFA this weekend behind Mr B and shortens right up down in the weights. Should continue to improve stepping out in trip.

5. ELIYASS - Nice run on the speed in the Turnbull which looks the right sort of form. Never raced behind 2000m has to be some sort of query though.

6. BUCKAROO - Same as above. Racing well but another who is very suspect at the trip as we saw in the Tancred. Don't think being gelded is going to turn him into a mile and a a half horse but we will see.

7. WARMONGER - Bit flat 2nd up and would have liked to have seen him finish a lot stronger in the Turnbull but out to a trip he wants now.

8. LAND LEGEND - Nice win in the Metrop but impossible to back him in a race with Zardozi after that with the 3kg weight swing and Zardozi having no luck in the run. Just a bit too short in the market.

9. WARP SPEED - Has class but will find this too short I think. Should still be closing off strongly though.

10. GEAR UP - #YOLO @ $201/$51. Take the double with the Herbert Power which I think he can win and probably going to be some sort of value even for a very unlikely winner.

 

[2121]

Expect a heavy 10 with 5-30ml predicted for the Friday and 7ml Saturday.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Expect a heavy 10 with 5-30ml predicted for the Friday and 7ml Saturday.

Might cull a few

 

[bigblueboy]

Coco Sun and Warmonger will improve on wet.

 

[lightred]

Zardozi looks suited too. Lots of soft track form and 1 win on heavy. Gets the weight swing on LL

 

[Lunchtime]

Interesting

 

[Jugada]

Interesting

Massive overreaction of a take from a single run. Yes should be in the market as a good chance but straight to favourite is laughable

Dry tracker who will lose a leg in the mud anyway

 

[Lunchtime]

Massive overreaction of a take from a single run. Yes should be in the market as a good chance but straight to favourite is laughable

Dry tracker who will lose a leg in the mud anyway

And the weight drop is 6.5kg...not 6kg.

The rain will make it interesting for a lot of runners. Could be a dartboard job.

 

[Lunchtime]

Massive overreaction of a take from a single run. Yes should be in the market as a good chance but straight to favourite is laughable

Dry tracker who will lose a leg in the mud anyway

This is the forecast for Melbourne, see link below. Deny Knowledge has had 9 starts on Soft for 1-0-2 & no starts on Heavy:

Melbourne Forecast

Provides access to Australian weather forecasts, weather observations, flood warnings and high sea forecasts from each state and territory provided by the Bureau of Meteorology

www.bom.gov.au

Could be a difficult day for punters.

 

[Jugada]

Zardozi @ 9
DDS @ 34
Sayedaty @ 34

The ones I expect will be shorter on the day

 

[lightred]

Massive overreaction of a take from a single run. Yes should be in the market as a good chance but straight to favourite is laughable

Dry tracker who will lose a leg in the mud anyway

100% agree - I think nic ashman getting a bit carried away there. Great run, but had everything to suit that day & won't be that easy in the CC

 

[cruskits]

Quick write up of main horses….

Buckaroo - Has come back from the ultimate gear change in great order and has the best WFA form going in, won’t mind the wet, not sold on running out the 2400m

Eliyass - Horse is flying, meets Buckaroo at same weight as last encounter, might not have to be used up this time after coming out of barrier 16, loves the wet, will be on speed, again questions about the last 100/200m

Land Legend - Great tough win in the Metrop, had the run of the race, can run out the 2400m, thinking it’s a better MC chance than the CC, question marks on the wet, meets Zardozi 3kg worse off and hasn’t run in VIC yet

Zardozi - Huge run in the Metrop sitting three wide the entire and then gapping the field with LL, LOVES the wet, has run well in VIC, strange Cummings scratched her earlier in the year from the Derby due to a heavy track, meets Eliyass 2kg better from her 4 length defeat earlier in the prep, she looks a proper 2400m horse and really gets going that last 400/600m

Warmonger - Two runs ago it only finished 1 length off Antino and we saw what that horse did on the weekend, super flat second up running putrid having Via’s back but not going a yard, likes the distance and the conditions, meets others at similar weights, my blackbook says if it rains CC then back to win, can’t have it (this never ends well)

Coco Sun - getting out to it’s distance range, will like the conditions, had an economical run in the best part of the track latest and still didn’t show much, gets in light but still only 1kg better than Warmonger from its Morphettville run earlier in the year, not running like a winner of the CC

Sayedaty Sadaty - gets in light, NH 3YO, will it like the conditions?, maybe we will learn a bit more about Jan B after this race, might sleep with the lights on this fella with only 1 win from 11 runs, bred to run out 2400m but not sure it will, will be on speed and out of trouble

Duke De Sessa - Can see it running another honest race, has the run the trip before without winning, a bit of a Young Werther feel about him, always runs a good good Top 5 - 10, meets Eliyass worse at the weights from last run, won’t mind the conditions and be on speed

Verdict: Hard not to be truck loading into Zardozi a week out

 

[Lunchtime]

Is it just me or do we all get the feeling an upset may happen? Just with these big staying handicap races...sometimes upsets happen....throw in the forecasted rain that's coming (if it does come) it becomes a bit of an unknown.

 

[Jugada]

Is it just me or do we all get the feeling an upset may happen? Just with these big staying handicap races...sometimes upsets happen....throw in the forecasted rain that's coming (if it does come) it becomes a bit of an unknown.

THE DUKE

 

[TBellicious]

Thought Adelaide River was quietly good yesterday in the M&P, decent flukers chance

 

[TBellicious]

The class often rises in these weaker renewals, probably don’t have to look too much further than the first half a dozen saddlecloths

 

[Jamz]

Any sort of a gate and Zardozi is going to be incredibly hard to beat.