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AFLW 2024 - Round 4 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Caulfield Saturday 11th October - Caulfield Guinease Day
- Thread starter bomberboy44
- Start date
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Is it just me or is that the worst Caulfield Stakes (Yalumba) field in years? I remember much stronger fields previously.
for what it's worth, my (biased) selections:
race 1 - strumming
got out late behind impressive filly at mv last start. should have finished much closer. think he's above average.
race 2 - riceman
he's a live chance in this. beaten less than two lengths last start behind sunburnt lad and sea battle, who runs in the toorak. he's better at this distance and, provided getting across from terrible barrier doesn't kill him, will be in the finish. each way all day. rain improves chances, though it doesn't look like coming.
race 3 - cefalu
can see him getting a cheap lead, clicking them up a long way from home and being hard to catch. the wolverine and fast future the dangers.
race 4 - lil cashy
speedy type from adelaide. little bit of a weight edge on the toppy. she doesn't get any further than 1km, so this is it for her. think she'll win.
race 5 - pompeii ruler
just too good for these.
race 6 - rockwood
the heart says annenkov and i think he'll run well, but i'll tip rockwood. looks a good up and comer and this is a relatively week toorak, with most of the favorites drawing terribly. bon hoffa, oc and sea battle i'll throw in f4s.
race 7 - whobegotyou
have backed him every start and he's giving me no reason to jump off. i think he'll win by 4l. time thief the only other winning chance i see, if whobe gets caught in traffic, which might still not be enough.
race 8 - okaylah
she's an impressive filly. doesn't have to lead them up to win. beat cats whisker last start, who ran well behind gallica last week. think she's over the odds.
race 9 - tango's amigos
i've always liked this horse. good first-up effort and fitter for the run. even, tough race, but this is the one for me.
best - whobegotyou, okaylah
smokey - the kov
race 1 - strumming
got out late behind impressive filly at mv last start. should have finished much closer. think he's above average.
race 2 - riceman
he's a live chance in this. beaten less than two lengths last start behind sunburnt lad and sea battle, who runs in the toorak. he's better at this distance and, provided getting across from terrible barrier doesn't kill him, will be in the finish. each way all day. rain improves chances, though it doesn't look like coming.
race 3 - cefalu
can see him getting a cheap lead, clicking them up a long way from home and being hard to catch. the wolverine and fast future the dangers.
race 4 - lil cashy
speedy type from adelaide. little bit of a weight edge on the toppy. she doesn't get any further than 1km, so this is it for her. think she'll win.
race 5 - pompeii ruler
just too good for these.
race 6 - rockwood
the heart says annenkov and i think he'll run well, but i'll tip rockwood. looks a good up and comer and this is a relatively week toorak, with most of the favorites drawing terribly. bon hoffa, oc and sea battle i'll throw in f4s.
race 7 - whobegotyou
have backed him every start and he's giving me no reason to jump off. i think he'll win by 4l. time thief the only other winning chance i see, if whobe gets caught in traffic, which might still not be enough.
race 8 - okaylah
she's an impressive filly. doesn't have to lead them up to win. beat cats whisker last start, who ran well behind gallica last week. think she's over the odds.
race 9 - tango's amigos
i've always liked this horse. good first-up effort and fitter for the run. even, tough race, but this is the one for me.
best - whobegotyou, okaylah
smokey - the kov
haywood jablome
Cancelled
Piety in the second at Mooney Valley.
My thoughts, follow them at your own peril...
Race 1: Some talented horses going around. 3 or 4 winning chances, going with Strumming although respect Naku Penda, Eclair Fantastic and Nato.
Race 2: Average field and not much pace. I'll go with Riceman EW at the odds as it'll take up a forward position and put itself in the race.
Race 3: Small field but some good horses in it. Cefalu rolling forward will ensure theres a good even tempo, without it would have been a crawl. Like Zavite and Dolphin Jo in this despite the class being with Maybe Better, Anamato and Fast Future.
Race 4: Good race, plenty of leaders and the track makes Kaphero a risk despite its excellent form. Going with Lucky Secret needs little explanation. Value runner could be Soaressa IMO who could be worth something EW if it gets out too much.
Race 5: Pompeii Ruler wins.
Race 6: Start of the lottery races. Weak field for a group one, plenty of winning chances. Theres plenty I like at odds here but will go with Kingda Ka who at its best is a very good horse and will get a good price because of the last start failure.
Race 7: Open Guineas but a very good race IMO. Think Whobegotyou is a tad short but deserves favouritism. Dreamscape has plenty going for it and would take it at the price if going for something in the market. But with the quality in this field I want to be on EW at odds. Duporth, Von Costa, Time Thief, Fernandina, Lord Tavistock - theres some good horses here and all have claims. I'm going with Baci Amore who has form around Sousa, Deseutude etc where it was competitive. Wasn't 100% in its run behind Sousa and at the long odds it will give a good sight.
Race 8: I'll stick with Velocitea only because I've been on its last few and its been good enough.
Race 9: Open race again but have it between Bel Mer, Benetar and Joyeuse. I'll go with Joyeuse despite the last start failure again, is better than that and will be competitive here. Hopefully get EW odds as a result.
Race 1: Some talented horses going around. 3 or 4 winning chances, going with Strumming although respect Naku Penda, Eclair Fantastic and Nato.
Race 2: Average field and not much pace. I'll go with Riceman EW at the odds as it'll take up a forward position and put itself in the race.
Race 3: Small field but some good horses in it. Cefalu rolling forward will ensure theres a good even tempo, without it would have been a crawl. Like Zavite and Dolphin Jo in this despite the class being with Maybe Better, Anamato and Fast Future.
Race 4: Good race, plenty of leaders and the track makes Kaphero a risk despite its excellent form. Going with Lucky Secret needs little explanation. Value runner could be Soaressa IMO who could be worth something EW if it gets out too much.
Race 5: Pompeii Ruler wins.
Race 6: Start of the lottery races. Weak field for a group one, plenty of winning chances. Theres plenty I like at odds here but will go with Kingda Ka who at its best is a very good horse and will get a good price because of the last start failure.
Race 7: Open Guineas but a very good race IMO. Think Whobegotyou is a tad short but deserves favouritism. Dreamscape has plenty going for it and would take it at the price if going for something in the market. But with the quality in this field I want to be on EW at odds. Duporth, Von Costa, Time Thief, Fernandina, Lord Tavistock - theres some good horses here and all have claims. I'm going with Baci Amore who has form around Sousa, Deseutude etc where it was competitive. Wasn't 100% in its run behind Sousa and at the long odds it will give a good sight.
Race 8: I'll stick with Velocitea only because I've been on its last few and its been good enough.
Race 9: Open race again but have it between Bel Mer, Benetar and Joyeuse. I'll go with Joyeuse despite the last start failure again, is better than that and will be competitive here. Hopefully get EW odds as a result.
- Feb 19, 2008
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Very keen on Dreamscape in the Guineas; classy and very honest, Von Costa as the danger - is still really green and will be a star when he gets his act together. Time Thief for third.
Surely Pompeii Ruler just wins the Yalumba - a class above the rest.
Using the same rationale, Maybe Better might just be too good in the Winning Edge.
Box Bon Hoffa, Turffontein, Kingda Ka and Rockwood for the multiples in the Toorak.
Surely Pompeii Ruler just wins the Yalumba - a class above the rest.
Using the same rationale, Maybe Better might just be too good in the Winning Edge.
Box Bon Hoffa, Turffontein, Kingda Ka and Rockwood for the multiples in the Toorak.
The Sqawka
Team Captain
Pompeii wins
Whobegotyou cant come from a wide barrier.. a roughie wins. I like all american or fernandina
Maybe Better wins
Okylah might be worth some serious though as it is value plus and we all know what shes capable of.
the others? who knows, its punting its not easy!
Whobegotyou cant come from a wide barrier.. a roughie wins. I like all american or fernandina
Maybe Better wins
Okylah might be worth some serious though as it is value plus and we all know what shes capable of.
the others? who knows, its punting its not easy!
Race 1 -
Race 2 -
Race 3 -
1 - Zavite, think he's ready to win and has been coming along nicely for a race like this. 2nd in this last year.
Race 4 -
1 - Soaressa, has a pretty good record, and should be the swooper in a race which has lots of speedy horses.
2 - Wilander, should appreciate the track and distance. Better for his 1st up run.
Race 5 -
1 - Pompeii Ruler, should be winning here, won't be left in front so early like at Flem. Gets the top run from the barrier and small field.
2 - Guillotine, should be right to give his best backing up after Flem.
Race 6 -
1 - Turfontein - Gets a nice run from the barrier, is always there abouts running a decent race every time.
2 - Valedictum - Going great, 1600 ideal
3 - Orange County - Despite going up in weight and having a bad barrier, he did smash them last time.
Race 7 -
1 - All American, 1600 looks good at this stage of his prep (was 1200 up to 1600 last start ran well chased a fast pace.) Great barrier will be in a good spot.
2 - Time Thief, run was quite good last time, Dunn says he'll settle a bit further back from a solid barrier, can run home well.
3 - Lord Tavistock, barrier nice and blinkers on.
Race 8 -
1 - Impressive Eagle, eye catching run with Ortensia last start (Ortensia then won) , can swoop down the middle late in the day.
2 - Olonana, will need some luck from 1.
3 - Velocitea, should get a nice run, is knocking on the door for a win
4 - Viennese, should improve back to a winning track if not ridden stupidly aggressively.
Race 9 -
1 - Hanna Rossa, good first up, good t-dist, should get a nice run from 7 to come down the middle.
2 - Benatar, racing well
3 - Zipanese, good first up, has barrier 1.
4 - Distinctive Lass, usually thereabouts, tough barrier though.
Race 2 -
Race 3 -
1 - Zavite, think he's ready to win and has been coming along nicely for a race like this. 2nd in this last year.
Race 4 -
1 - Soaressa, has a pretty good record, and should be the swooper in a race which has lots of speedy horses.
2 - Wilander, should appreciate the track and distance. Better for his 1st up run.
Race 5 -
1 - Pompeii Ruler, should be winning here, won't be left in front so early like at Flem. Gets the top run from the barrier and small field.
2 - Guillotine, should be right to give his best backing up after Flem.
Race 6 -
1 - Turfontein - Gets a nice run from the barrier, is always there abouts running a decent race every time.
2 - Valedictum - Going great, 1600 ideal
3 - Orange County - Despite going up in weight and having a bad barrier, he did smash them last time.
Race 7 -
1 - All American, 1600 looks good at this stage of his prep (was 1200 up to 1600 last start ran well chased a fast pace.) Great barrier will be in a good spot.
2 - Time Thief, run was quite good last time, Dunn says he'll settle a bit further back from a solid barrier, can run home well.
3 - Lord Tavistock, barrier nice and blinkers on.
Race 8 -
1 - Impressive Eagle, eye catching run with Ortensia last start (Ortensia then won) , can swoop down the middle late in the day.
2 - Olonana, will need some luck from 1.
3 - Velocitea, should get a nice run, is knocking on the door for a win
4 - Viennese, should improve back to a winning track if not ridden stupidly aggressively.
Race 9 -
1 - Hanna Rossa, good first up, good t-dist, should get a nice run from 7 to come down the middle.
2 - Benatar, racing well
3 - Zipanese, good first up, has barrier 1.
4 - Distinctive Lass, usually thereabouts, tough barrier though.
- Banned
- #35
Ecclair Fantastic is a freak, there is absolutely no way
that the horse gets done tommorow, was a massive
performance last start, one of the biggest ive seen this yr.
Group 1 in the making if ive ever seen one..
Whobegotyou, unless the track is against him, he wins.
Everyone is looking for something to beat him, but his
last start was a cake walk, he is the real deal and can
only be beaten by bias - and if they walk.
Others to look out for :
Lucky Secret, at his best he is the best sprinter in the land,
its just whether he can re-capture his best and show everyone
what he is capable of.
Would be very suprised if there isnt at least 2 winners in those tips.
that the horse gets done tommorow, was a massive
performance last start, one of the biggest ive seen this yr.
Group 1 in the making if ive ever seen one..
Whobegotyou, unless the track is against him, he wins.
Everyone is looking for something to beat him, but his
last start was a cake walk, he is the real deal and can
only be beaten by bias - and if they walk.
Others to look out for :
Lucky Secret, at his best he is the best sprinter in the land,
its just whether he can re-capture his best and show everyone
what he is capable of.
Would be very suprised if there isnt at least 2 winners in those tips.
No explanations, just my tips
Race 1 -
1 - no.2 Naku Panda
2 - no.1 Gold in Dubai
3 - no.8 Captain Coltish
Race 2 -
1 - no.14 Gold Salute
2 - no.10 Guild
3 - no.15 Secret Flyer
Race 3 -
1 - no.6 Fast Future
2 - no.4 Anamato
3 - no.7 The Wolverine
Race 4 -
1 - no.1 Kaphero
2 - no.3 Lucky Secret
3 - no.8 Wilander
Race 5 -
1 - no.1 Pompeii Ruler
2 - no.3 Casual Pass
3 - no.7 Guillotine
Race 6 -
1 - no.6 The Fuzz
2 - no.10 Sea Battle
3 - no.2 Orange County
Race 7 -
1 - no.3 All American
2 - no.6 Fernandina
3 - no.11 Whobegotyou
Race 8 -
1 - no.1 Viennese
2 - no.4 Velocitea
3 - no.3 Impressive Eagle
Race 9 -
1 - no.7 Absolutelyfabulous
2 - no 3 Belong To Many
3 - no 10 Benatar
Race 1 -
1 - no.2 Naku Panda
2 - no.1 Gold in Dubai
3 - no.8 Captain Coltish
Race 2 -
1 - no.14 Gold Salute
2 - no.10 Guild
3 - no.15 Secret Flyer
Race 3 -
1 - no.6 Fast Future
2 - no.4 Anamato
3 - no.7 The Wolverine
Race 4 -
1 - no.1 Kaphero
2 - no.3 Lucky Secret
3 - no.8 Wilander
Race 5 -
1 - no.1 Pompeii Ruler
2 - no.3 Casual Pass
3 - no.7 Guillotine
Race 6 -
1 - no.6 The Fuzz
2 - no.10 Sea Battle
3 - no.2 Orange County
Race 7 -
1 - no.3 All American
2 - no.6 Fernandina
3 - no.11 Whobegotyou
Race 8 -
1 - no.1 Viennese
2 - no.4 Velocitea
3 - no.3 Impressive Eagle
Race 9 -
1 - no.7 Absolutelyfabulous
2 - no 3 Belong To Many
3 - no 10 Benatar
- Banned
- #37
For what it is worth i'll have a crack.
Race 1 - Eclair Fantastic for me
Race 2 - Sharkbite is one of my faves, and i reckon it iwll get this.
Race 3 - Anamato or possibly Maybe Better
Race 4 - Lucky Secret
Race 5 - Pompeii Ruler, although this could be a tough one, an upset could be on the cards
Race 6 - Turffontein for mine
Race 7 - Whobegotyou. Can't fault this horse
Race 8 - Viennese
Race 9 - Benatar
Quaddie
1,3,7,14/7,11,13,14/1,6,7/1,7,10,14
Ugh gonna be a bloody tough quaddie tomorrow, easily a few more i could have fit in.
Race 1 - Eclair Fantastic for me
Race 2 - Sharkbite is one of my faves, and i reckon it iwll get this.
Race 3 - Anamato or possibly Maybe Better
Race 4 - Lucky Secret
Race 5 - Pompeii Ruler, although this could be a tough one, an upset could be on the cards
Race 6 - Turffontein for mine
Race 7 - Whobegotyou. Can't fault this horse
Race 8 - Viennese
Race 9 - Benatar
Quaddie
1,3,7,14/7,11,13,14/1,6,7/1,7,10,14
Ugh gonna be a bloody tough quaddie tomorrow, easily a few more i could have fit in.
- Banned
- #38
Race 1 - Strumming
Race 2 - Falaise
Race 3 - Maybe Better
Race 4 - Gamble Me
Race 5 - Pompeii Ruler
Race 6 - Raheeb
Race 7 - Whobegotyou
Race 8 - Okaylah
Race 9 - Bel Mer
Race 2 - Falaise
Race 3 - Maybe Better
Race 4 - Gamble Me
Race 5 - Pompeii Ruler
Race 6 - Raheeb
Race 7 - Whobegotyou
Race 8 - Okaylah
Race 9 - Bel Mer
bomberboy44
Senior List
- Thread starter
- #39
Anyone think Minesota Shark is overs at $41. Have watched the Stutt a few times and he did a lot of work from about the 600m died on his run abit but to be expected coming 6-7wide round the bend. Whobegotyou smashed them that day but Minesota Shark has drawn gate 2 should possie up hand, have a soft run and might be a one at blow out odd.
A lot of winners have come just off the speed so I hope he is put there. Freak performance (or freak horses) have won from back and only a few have been able to do that in recent times i think Gods Own ran down paratroppers and Lonhro charged home.
If whobegotyou wins it will be a super effort
A lot of winners have come just off the speed so I hope he is put there. Freak performance (or freak horses) have won from back and only a few have been able to do that in recent times i think Gods Own ran down paratroppers and Lonhro charged home.
If whobegotyou wins it will be a super effort
bomberboy44
Senior List
- Thread starter
- #40
Lucky Secret in from $4 to $3 Sportsbet
Very casual punter so take my picks with an absolute grain of salt...
Race 1 - 1. Eclair Fantastic 2. Naku Penda 3. Zizz
Race 2 - 1. Sharkbite 2. Falaise 3. Guild
Race 3 - 1. Anamato 2. Maybe Better 3. The Wolverine
Race 4 - 1. Lucky Secret 2. Kaphero 3. Soaressa
Race 5 - 1. Pompeii Ruler 2. Guillotine 3. Sirmione
Race 6 - 1. Turffontein 2. Kingda Ka 3. Pillar of Hercules
Race 7 - 1. Dreamscape 2. Whobetgotyou 3. All American
Race 8 - 1. Margham 2. Impressive Eagle 3. Olonana
Race 9 - 1. Bel Mer 2. Joyeuse 3. Benatar
Bold = The ones I really like.
Race 1 - 1. Eclair Fantastic 2. Naku Penda 3. Zizz
Race 2 - 1. Sharkbite 2. Falaise 3. Guild
Race 3 - 1. Anamato 2. Maybe Better 3. The Wolverine
Race 4 - 1. Lucky Secret 2. Kaphero 3. Soaressa
Race 5 - 1. Pompeii Ruler 2. Guillotine 3. Sirmione
Race 6 - 1. Turffontein 2. Kingda Ka 3. Pillar of Hercules
Race 7 - 1. Dreamscape 2. Whobetgotyou 3. All American
Race 8 - 1. Margham 2. Impressive Eagle 3. Olonana
Race 9 - 1. Bel Mer 2. Joyeuse 3. Benatar
Bold = The ones I really like.
- Nov 25, 2003
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Whobegotyou deserves favouritism but I think there is a discrepancy in the market.
I like the Prelude as the form reference for this. Von Costa & Lord Tavistock had to endure runs 3 & 4 wide for the majority of the trip yet still came home well. Whobegotyou was slow out but sat on the rail the entire trip, & although was held up did deserve to run on the way he did given the cosy run.
I'm not convinced that there is as much between the 3 of them that the market reflects. I also think that either Von Costa or Lord Tavistock could have done similar to the Stutt field to what Whobegotyou.
These 3 IMO are clearly the best of the locals, but I will be backing the Lord given the barrier & addition of blinkers.......... probably should have a saver on Von Costa.
Good Punting all.
I like the Prelude as the form reference for this. Von Costa & Lord Tavistock had to endure runs 3 & 4 wide for the majority of the trip yet still came home well. Whobegotyou was slow out but sat on the rail the entire trip, & although was held up did deserve to run on the way he did given the cosy run.
I'm not convinced that there is as much between the 3 of them that the market reflects. I also think that either Von Costa or Lord Tavistock could have done similar to the Stutt field to what Whobegotyou.
These 3 IMO are clearly the best of the locals, but I will be backing the Lord given the barrier & addition of blinkers.......... probably should have a saver on Von Costa.
Good Punting all.
- Jul 7, 2003
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R1 - Naku Penda
R2 - Sharkbite
R3 - Maybe Better
R4 - Lucky Secret
R5 - Pompeii Ruler (Really want Largo to get over the top of them here)
R6 -
R7 - Whobegotyou
R8 - Viennese
R9 -
R2 - Sharkbite
R3 - Maybe Better
R4 - Lucky Secret
R5 - Pompeii Ruler (Really want Largo to get over the top of them here)
R6 -
R7 - Whobegotyou
R8 - Viennese
R9 -
Exhale You
Premiership Player
R1 - Zizz (Already mentioned it in the punting comp thread earlier)
R2 - Wind Shear/Secret Flyer
R3 - The Wolverine
R4 - Wilander
R5 - Pompeii Ruler (Not betting in the race, but think Pompeii should win)
R6 - Bon Hoffa
R7 - Duporth
R8 - Olonana
R9 - Hanna Rossa
R2 - Wind Shear/Secret Flyer
R3 - The Wolverine
R4 - Wilander
R5 - Pompeii Ruler (Not betting in the race, but think Pompeii should win)
R6 - Bon Hoffa
R7 - Duporth
R8 - Olonana
R9 - Hanna Rossa
Exhale You
Premiership Player
Bloody second in the first race.
At 10/1 a win would have meant that the rest of the day was just free betting.
Hope it isn't a sign of things to come.
At 10/1 a win would have meant that the rest of the day was just free betting.
Hope it isn't a sign of things to come.
- Banned
- #46
Mate, bit of confidence there, well done.
Ive had an all up with your 3 bets champ, so here to you if
they win, youll hear about it if the other 2 get done, cheers.
