Speculation Chad Warner

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richoatthedisco said:
Utter horseshit. Go watch Richmond's 2020 finals series.

Sonny is a stay at home forward. Shai spends plenty of time in the midfield. Compare their centre clearances.
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Played a corker in the semi against saints 3 goals
Gf 0 goals but was a great support
Quali and prelim in tight tussles 0 goals
Not in best players
Agree to disagree
This is a Warner thread so I will finish
 

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kuhni said:
Your list is genuinely at a similar level to Richmond's outside of Reid.
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Lol no, we are a couple of years ahead in general, plus we have a couple of KPFs that are genuinely a-grade. Richmond won't get a Reid from this draft either.
Richmond don't have any a-graders, let alone mature age ones.
kuhni said:
B to A grade 25-28 y.o. that could be around for next finals are Allen, Waterman, Duggan, Ryan.
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Baker easily fits in here, then we have role players and warner is a very good chance
kuhni said:
Other than Reid (A grade) you have a few young B graders in Ginbey, Hewitt, Hough.
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Hough is a-grade, one of the best stoppers in the comp.
The rest are young and haven't shown enough to be categorically placed in a-grade, but Ginbey in particular has shown more than almost anybody his age.
kuhni said:
Wouldn't be able to name any other decent young players.
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Lol, just because you don't know their names doesn't mean they don't exist.
 
freo_leo29 said:
WC have historically underpaid their players

Why does everyone think they are going to suddenly dump 3 million on 2 players?

Cap will be 18.44 mil in 2027, so spending roughly 16% of their cap on 2 players for the next 8 years

They've then got to pay 42 other players

Can't see them doing it tbh, reckon the money is going to be closer than you think, then take ~45%~ for tax and it will be even closer money actually in hand
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New management
 
stallon said:
Lol no, we are a couple of years ahead in general, plus we have a couple of KPFs that are genuinely a-grade. Richmond won't get a Reid from this draft either.
Richmond don't have any a-graders, let alone mature age ones.

Baker easily fits in here, then we have role players and warner is a very good chance

Hough is a-grade, one of the best stoppers in the comp.
The rest are young and haven't shown enough to be categorically placed in a-grade, but Ginbey in particular has shown more than almost anybody his age.

Lol, just because you don't know their names doesn't mean they don't exist.
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When do you reckon you'll challenge for finals? 2026?
 
CaseySibosadoHOF said:
The problem is you guys appear to be further along in time than in actual steps taken. You'd think bottom 3 for 3 years in a row and bottom 10 for 4 years in a row means a lot of the work is done. But looking at the results, the age profile is still a fair bit wonky for a rebuilding team + for the most part there appears to be a large gap btwn the floor and ceiling of what your younger players will become.
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At the start of this year half of the list was 21 or under. We have lost older players and will repace them with kids. Baker+Graham+Owies replace the middle age guys we delisted.
CaseySibosadoHOF said:
Even guys like Ginbey and Hewett who I'd be fairly surprised if they don't become 150+ game players: there's a gap btwn a Chris Masten and an Andrew Gaff. And then there's a ton of guys like Archer Reid, Rhett Bazzo, Jack Williams, Campbell Chesser, etc where I think 3 years from now each of them can be best 22, but each of them can also be out of the system.
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i wouldnt put Archer or Jack Williams in particular with the others, Jack looks like genuinely elite, and Archer despite being 18/19 played extremely well in the wafl in a shit team. Both could fetch first round picks if on the market.
Bazzo has been injured unfortunately
CaseySibosadoHOF said:
Freo are a decent example of a team where they rebuilt for quite a while and actually drafted well in that time, but the results didn't match that. 2016-2024 is a 9 year period where we made finals once (granted, most would say the rebuild is really 2016-2021, but that's still 6 years). Taking 2016-2021, in all but 1 of those drafts (ironically the 2018 Superdraft) we traded and drafted fairly well. But the constant revolving door (this isn't a problem for you guys) and some weird trades which contradicted rebuilding aims (this could be a problem for you guys) meant it was always 3 steps forward 2 steps back.

It could be that in a year or 2 from now, a strong, deep young core emerges out of hits with non-1st rounders and mid-season draftees as well as NGAs and father-sons adding depth around the 1st rounders. Right now, that feels closer to optimistic prediction than certainty.
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You are under the assumption we need a group of A-graders to compete. A balanced spread of talent works just as well.
We don't, anybody who has watched the kids like Maric, Long, JWilliams, Hough, Hutchinson, Hewett(limited games), etc would reasonably be optimistic. Development along with more kids still being added as we climb the ladder means it won't be far away
 
Joao said:
When do you reckon you'll challenge for finals? 2026?
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Hard to say, but a lot of the list is there.
Building depth and improving consistency, along with seeing how McQualter goes will determine that.

I dont think it's unreasonable to be wanting at least 7-8 wins in 2025, and then improve from there
 
freo_leo29 said:
Would be a massive departure from the system that has worked for 35 years

WC use their WA presence to pay unders to players, can't see them stopping that now
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That might be because they have always had very good players in the past that were under paid and they would have struggled to fit them all into their cap.

With where they are at the moment they need to use the cap to attract talent specially WA talent
When you struggle to pay the cap floor may as well over pay a gun player to come to your club

Richmond will do the same in 2 years time
 
richoatthedisco said:
It's not a myth.

First off, half of Bolton's finals were played in shortened games in 2020, so your stats comparison is misleading and irrelevant. He had an excellent finals series that year and was one of our best players in all four games but especially in the prelim and grand final.

His first three finals he was a 20-year-old bit player in 2019. In 2022 he didn't have a great game against Brisbane but still kicked 2 goals.

The other difference is that most (75%) of Shai's finals have been the higher standard, tougher, qualifying finals, prelims and grand finals, whereas a higher proportion of Sonny's have been elimination finals and semis (45%) against lesser opposition. Shai was 21 or under for every final he's played except the last one. Sonny over 23 for four of his 11.

Both great players, with many similarities. Sonny a more reliable kick for goal and better field kick, Shai better at just about everything else, including overhead, pack marking, making something from nothing, and running through the midfield. I love Sonny but it boggles my mind so many Freo fans still don't know what they're getting in Shai.

You're going to laugh when you realise how good he is.


Wayne Harmes won three flags and a Norm Smith for Carlton and never stopped being a Richmond supporter. Still is.
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exactly..you made my point. 99% of players play for a team they didn't barrack for. hence, it's a non factor.
 

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stallon said:
At the start of this year half of the list was 21 or under. We have lost older players and will repace them with kids. Baker+Graham+Owies replace the middle age guys we delisted.

i wouldnt put Archer or Jack Williams in particular with the others, Jack looks like genuinely elite, and Archer despite being 18/19 played extremely well in the wafl in a shit team. Both could fetch first round picks if on the market.
Bazzo has been injured unfortunately

You are under the assumption we need a group of A-graders to compete. A balanced spread of talent works just as well.
We don't, anybody who has watched the kids like Maric, Long, JWilliams, Hough, Hutchinson, Hewett(limited games), etc would reasonably be optimistic. Development along with more kids still being added as we climb the ladder means it won't be far away
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Jack Williams genuinely elite? It must be hard watching these past few seasons, clinging on to any semblance of an acceptable performance.
 
kuhni said:
Jack Williams genuinely elite? It must be hard watching these past few seasons, clinging on to any semblance of an acceptable performance.
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I know you havent watched him, but he was in the same draft as Amiss and JVR as 3 KPFs from WA. Despite being a late pick, he isnt in 3rd place, at least not noticeably(if you actually watched them all).
Before going checking JWilliams stats, remember hes a 3rd KPF/ruck, JVR and Amiss are #1 or #2 targets.
 
stallon said:
I know you havent watched him, but he was in the same draft as Amiss and JVR as 3 KPFs from WA. Despite being a late pick, he isnt in 3rd place, at least not noticeably(if you actually watched them all).
Before going checking JWilliams stats, remember hes a 3rd KPF/ruck, JVR and Amiss are #1 or #2 targets.
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Take those blue and yellow goggles off man

JVR and Amiss both kicked more goals this year than Williams has in his whole career, laughable to suggest he isn't noticeably behind both of them

And yes I've watched alot of West Coast, being from WA
 
freo_leo29 said:
Take those blue and yellow goggles off man

JVR and Amiss both kicked more goals this year than Williams has in his whole career, laughable to suggest he isn't noticeably behind both of them
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You didn't read all that I wrote there mate. Williams has some other KPFs ahead of him, Amiss or JVR wouldn't be the #1 or #2 forwards in a side with Allen and Waterman either.
Slightly different roles
freo_leo29 said:
And yes I've watched alot of West Coast, being from WA
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Then how can you claim that Jack is noticeably behind them? Lol
 
I’d be expecting around 7-10th place by end of 2026, IF we get a Warner type, get another 40 games into HR/Ginbey/Hewett/Archer Reid and this years first pick.

That’s a big IF, but I feel it’s doable
 
stallon said:
Lol no, we are a couple of years ahead in general, plus we have a couple of KPFs that are genuinely a-grade. Richmond won't get a Reid from this draft either.
Richmond don't have any a-graders, let alone mature age ones.

Baker easily fits in here, then we have role players and warner is a very good chance

Hough is a-grade, one of the best stoppers in the comp.
The rest are young and haven't shown enough to be categorically placed in a-grade, but Ginbey in particular has shown more than almost anybody his age.

Lol, just because you don't know their names doesn't mean they don't exist.
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I think your grading's are off. Can become A grade is not currently A grade. Hough is not an A grader but could potentially become one. Ginbey hasn't shown more than almost anybody his age. There are players from his draft class that are nearly winning Brownlows and are winning Norm Smiths. Hell, Josh Draper is showing more than him considering he's a KPD.

If Ginbey was such a success, why have they moved to defense instead of the midfield?
 
Purple Suit said:
I think your grading's are off. Can become A grade is not currently A grade. Hough is not an A grader but could potentially become one. Ginbey hasn't shown more than almost anybody his age. There are players from his draft class that are nearly winning Brownlows and are winning Norm Smiths. Hell, Josh Draper is showing more than him considering he's a KPD.
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Strong disagree about Draper, he's played well for his age but not comparable to Ginbey

Who from his class is nearly winning the Brownlow?
I know player ratings can be flawed, but he's 6th of all players his age, basically equal to Ashcroft this year.
His work gets unnoticed because he's a defensively minded player
Purple Suit said:
If Ginbey was such a success, why have they moved to defense instead of the midfield?
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Because he's clearly a better defender than midfielder and we really lack defenders. We had a bunch of other mids who we had to give opportunity to at the end of the year to see what they are before delisting them.
 
stallon said:
Strong disagree about Draper, he's played well for his age but not comparable to Ginbey

Who from his class is nearly winning the Brownlow?
I know player ratings can be flawed, but he's 6th of all players his age, basically equal to Ashcroft this year.
His work gets unnoticed because he's a defensively minded player

Because he's clearly a better defender than midfielder and we really lack defenders. We had a bunch of other mids who we had to give opportunity to at the end of the year to see what they are before delisting them.
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Sorry, I thought Nick Diacos was that year. Sheezle is definitely tracking for that sort of level with his output.

Ratings are flawed. Probably since he's now classified as a defender after shifting from Midfield. Sixth best of his draft year wouldn't be showing more than just about anybody. I think he makes it as a player but not sure he's going to be an A grader, especially the mid you are crying out for.
 
Purple Suit said:
Sorry, I thought Nick Diacos was that year. Sheezle is definitely tracking for that sort of level with his output.

Ratings are flawed. Probably since he's now classified as a defender after shifting from Midfield. Sixth best of his draft year wouldn't be showing more than just about anybody. I think he makes it as a player but not sure he's going to be an A grader, especially the mid you are crying out for.
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Player ratings dont take into account position.

Of the 5 guys ahead, 3 were taken with picks 2, 3, 4 and the other 2 were playing aggressive roles in strong teams that utilised them well(Darcy Jones and Weddle).
Ginbey is playing in a shit team with little support

If anything Ginbey should be given a bit more credit than his stats give him because of the situation he has to deal with.

He looked very strong as a half back toward the end of the year, he has all the traits to be elite at it, just lacks a bit of confidence to take the game on.

Some more confidence and he is a better Weddle
 

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Speculation Chad Warner

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