Asia China's growing influence

[CD Xbow]

They'll bite off the islands close to the coast to test the water first. Xi has nailed his legacy to "reunification" so it's definitely a risk they roll the dice.

Yes, but when?

There has been speculation of an early attack, even perhaps next year. However they probably lacking in amphibious capabilities still, although according to this they have started building the type 076, a big amphibious warship. They probably need about half a dozen. PRC can probably churn one out a year wihout to much effort.

China's Type 076 Is Shaping Up To Be A Monster Amphibious Warship

From what we can see of China's newest class of amphibious assault ship so far, its width may be its most significant feature.

www.twz.com

I think they may keep going with the grey zone tactics for a few years, and to paraphrase that old Chinese geezer, "The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.”

This article talks about the PRC efforts in that direction a bit. Recent comments from PLAN admirals have been quite specific with their threats of invasion.

China’s effort to take over Taiwan without firing a shot

How influence operations, cyber-weapon hoarding, and intimidation factor into China’s Taiwan play.

www.defenseone.com

 

[Festerz]

Sneaky mutherfeckers.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Sneaky mutherfeckers.

View attachment 2010436

Never put anything that China would do.
They are lower than a snakes belly

 

[CD Xbow]

These European writers in the Diplomat paint a rather grim picture of Russian/Chinese intentions towards Europe. They essentially paint a picture of the West being at war with Russia and China, not a full on kinetic war, nonetheless a war.

In the New Cold War, Europe’s Approach to China Is Already Outdated

The hope that Beijing would distance itself, however minimally, from Moscow has finally been extinguished. Europe needs to adjust its approach accordingly.

thediplomat.com

 

[barreness]

These European writers in the Diplomat paint a rather grim picture of Russian/Chinese intentions towards Europe. They essentially paint a picture of the West being at war with Russia and China, not a full on kinetic war, nonetheless a war.

In the New Cold War, Europe’s Approach to China Is Already Outdated

The hope that Beijing would distance itself, however minimally, from Moscow has finally been extinguished. Europe needs to adjust its approach accordingly.

thediplomat.com

Very pro cold war going hot that article

The trade war with China has been in full effect since 2018 and no side of US politics appears willing to change that. (Australia has had almost all the tariffs removed as the current govt has toned down rhetoric, we would still follow a US move I'd guess)

This combined with a refusal to change the cold war mindset with regards to Russia has ironically created the closest relationship since the 60's sino-soviet split

 

[CD Xbow]

Very pro cold war going hot that article

The trade war with China has been in full effect since 2018 and no side of US politics appears willing to change that. (Australia has had almost all the tariffs removed as the current govt has toned down rhetoric, we would still follow a US move I'd guess)

This combined with a refusal to change the cold war mindset with regards to Russia has ironically created the closest relationship since the 60's sino-soviet split

Birds of a feather. Democracy hating autocratic despots.
I don't think anything the West could do, bar total capitulation to Putin's demands in Europe could have prevented it. Same for the PRC with it's ambitions in the SCS, Taiwan, Philippines etc.

 

[barreness]

Birds of a feather. Democracy hating autocratic despots.

Simplistic, they're fine if they're our autocrats. Fascist Spain and Greece in NATO, Close with the Saudi's and a few of the autocratic middle eastern states, Pinochet over Allende, there's a bunch more as you know.

US is a highly flawed democracy, as are most, and is ruled by capital not the people

I don't think anything the West could do, bar total capitulation to Putin's demands in Europe could have prevented it. Same for the PRC with it's ambitions in the SCS, Taiwan, Philippines etc.

Well they could understand that the global hegemon will collapse at some point and multipolarity isn't the end of the world.

NATO didn't have to spend thirty years expanding after their rival collapsed
https://www.thecairoreview.com/essays/hegemonic-reasoning-fueled-the-russia-ukraine-war/

Likewise China is the main economic and military power in the pacific and making a huff about a civil war holdout and a British colonial possession isn't the smartest move

 

[CD Xbow]

Simplistic, they're fine if they're our autocrats. Fascist Spain and Greece in NATO, Close with the Saudi's and a few of the autocratic middle eastern states, Pinochet over Allende, there's a bunch more as you know.

US is a highly flawed democracy, as are most, and is ruled by capital not the people

Well they could understand that the global hegemon will collapse at some point and multipolarity isn't the end of the world.

NATO didn't have to spend thirty years expanding after their rival collapsed
https://www.thecairoreview.com/essays/hegemonic-reasoning-fueled-the-russia-ukraine-war/

Likewise China is the main economic and military power in the pacific and making a huff about a civil war holdout and a British colonial possession isn't the smartest move

Xi has kicking a lot of own goals diplomatically and economically. Trust is the currency of diplomacy and the PRC has used up a lot of trust by reneging on the HK agreement, shafting the Philippines when Duarte bent over backwards for them, attacking Indian troops, engaging in economic warfare against us etc. The lesson to all is you can't trust the PRC. I think you undervalue the importance of diplomacy and soft power.

Another consideration is the PRC may have peaked.

The New Reality of Dealing With a China in Decline

China’s rapid rise is slowing down, and incumbent global powers that have dominated political, military, and economic spheres for decades are scrambling to respond.

thediplomat.com

According to this article it may make them more dangerous. Russia's recent action in the Ukraine could be considered an example of an empire in decline and thus willing to take greater risks to shore up it's position.

 

[barreness]

Xi has kicking a lot of own goals diplomatically and economically. Trust is the currency of diplomacy and the PRC has used up a lot of trust by reneging on the HK agreement, shafting the Philippines when Duarte bent over backwards for them, attacking Indian troops, engaging in economic warfare against us etc. The lesson to all is you can't trust the PRC. I think you undervalue the importance of diplomacy and soft power.

Country looks after its own interests, more news at 10

They honoured the 99 year lease and then took back their stolen island, should they not have an extradition treaty with themselves? Philippines remains a US colony. Disputed mountain had some fisticuffs, who exactly started it is somewhat iffy but it didn't go anywhere. Australia engaged in actual diplomacy rather than the megaphone type and now basically all of the tariffs have been removed, surprise

The lesson is for us to engage in diplomacy not follow the neocon hawks in Washington

Another consideration is the PRC may have peaked.

Peaked as the worlds manufacturing hub and the(maybe) largest economy isn't a bad spot I guess. But yeh how many years has 'China imminent failure' been running on headlines, not happened yet

The New Reality of Dealing With a China in Decline

China’s rapid rise is slowing down, and incumbent global powers that have dominated political, military, and economic spheres for decades are scrambling to respond.

thediplomat.com

According to this article it may make them more dangerous. Russia's recent action in the Ukraine could be considered an example of an empire in decline and thus willing to take greater risks to shore up it's position.

Lol, Russia is the rump state of the USSR, the empire died 30 years ago, decline was in the 70's. If you are worried about the wounded animal thing then you have to look at the US, losing hegemony for a country that has always been on a constant war footing could prove dangerous

 

[sdfc]

Country looks after its own interests, more news at 10

They honoured the 99 year lease and then took back their stolen island, should they not have an extradition treaty with themselves? Philippines remains a US colony. Disputed mountain had some fisticuffs, who exactly started it is somewhat iffy but it didn't go anywhere. Australia engaged in actual diplomacy rather than the megaphone type and now basically all of the tariffs have been removed, surprise

The lesson is for us to engage in diplomacy not follow the neocon hawks in Washington



Peaked as the worlds manufacturing hub and the(maybe) largest economy isn't a bad spot I guess. But yeh how many years has 'China imminent failure' been running on headlines, not happened yet

Lol, Russia is the rump state of the USSR, the empire died 30 years ago, decline was in the 70's. If you are worried about the wounded animal thing then you have to look at the US, losing hegemony for a country that has always been on a constant war footing could prove dangerous

Reads like a Global Times article.

 

[barreness]

Reads like a Global Times article.

When you realise all these orgs are propaganda you might open your mind a little. The Diplomat and ASPI, yeh just straight ahead news there. But no I don't read the global times, too far for me lol

But accusing others of being bots or paid propagandists is silly on an aussie rules forums, take on the argument man

 

[Seeds]

Simplistic, they're fine if they're our autocrats. Fascist Spain and Greece in NATO, Close with the Saudi's and a few of the autocratic middle eastern states, Pinochet over Allende, there's a bunch more as you know.

US is a highly flawed democracy, as are most, and is ruled by capital not the people

Well they could understand that the global hegemon will collapse at some point and multipolarity isn't the end of the world.

NATO didn't have to spend thirty years expanding after their rival collapsed
https://www.thecairoreview.com/essays/hegemonic-reasoning-fueled-the-russia-ukraine-war/

Likewise China is the main economic and military power in the pacific and making a huff about a civil war holdout and a British colonial possession isn't the smartest move

You oddly have little problem with countries invading and stealing others land. In this post you are talking about it as if its some minor thing and not something that will destroy tens of millions of lives. The lack of humanity here is scary in my view. That civil war handout has a population the same size as Australia for crying out loud. 23 million who live in a free democrqcy about to be overtaken by a dictatorship that will treat them as second class citizens at best. And not to mention the death toll during this transition will be enormous.

And a multipolar world in a post nuclear age will almost certainly lead to the end of the world. Its just a matter of whether it happens in 5 years or 75 years. The only future humanity has is through a sufficient level of global order to deter war amonst major powers and drive nuclear treaties once again.

 

[sdfc]

When you realise all these orgs are propaganda you might open your mind a little. The Diplomat and ASPI, yeh just straight ahead news there. But no I don't read the global times, too far for me lol

But accusing others of being bots or paid propagandists is silly on an aussie rules forums, take on the argument man

So the PRC aren't snuffing out political freedom in HK? They aren't bullying their neighbours?

 

[barreness]

You oddly have little problem with countries invading and stealing others land. In this post you are talking about it as if its some minor thing and not something that will destroy tens of millions of lives. The lack of humanity here is scary in my view.

Lack of humanity? You're a capitalist, 10-15 million die from malnutrition every year when there's excess food, invisible hand really allocating nicely

That civil war handout has a population the same size as Australia for crying out loud. 23 million who live in a free democrqcy about to be overtaken by a dictatorship that will treat them as second class citizens at best. And not to mention the death toll during this transition will be enormous.

Only if it has to be war, CCP and everyone sane would prefer a slow diplomatic takeover ala Hong Kong

Taiwan was a dictatorship under a fascist for most of it's existence, loved the martial law
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Terror_(Taiwan)
Around 140,000 Taiwanese were imprisoned under harsh treatment during this period, with many either indirectly dying or suffering various health problems in the process. About 3,000 to 4,000 were directly executed for their real or perceived opposition to the KMT's Chiang Kai-shek government.[1] Most of the victims of the White Terror were men, however, a number of women were tortured and/or executed.[

And a multipolar world in a post nuclear age will almost certainly lead to the end of the world. Its just a matter of whether it happens in 5 years or 75 years. The only future humanity has is through a sufficient level of global order to deter war amonst major powers and drive nuclear treaties once again.

Why? MAD doesn't substantially change

I think the end of the US hegemon could lead to a nuclear conflict because they're desperate but that's not really other states fault

Global "rules based order" has always been bullshit, you don't challenge the rule of capital or you get couped, invaded, and/or sanctioned. That's the rules

 

[barreness]

So the PRC aren't snuffing out political freedom in HK? They aren't bullying their neighbours?

Sure they are, that's what powers do. Not sure why you would expect better of the CCP than the US or the Brits before them

 

[Spearman]

Lack of humanity? You're a capitalist, 10-15 million die from malnutrition every year when there's excess food, invisible hand really allocating nicely

Only if it has to be war, CCP and everyone sane would prefer a slow diplomatic takeover ala Hong Kong

Taiwan was a dictatorship under a fascist for most of it's existence, loved the martial law
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Terror_(Taiwan)
Around 140,000 Taiwanese were imprisoned under harsh treatment during this period, with many either indirectly dying or suffering various health problems in the process. About 3,000 to 4,000 were directly executed for their real or perceived opposition to the KMT's Chiang Kai-shek government.[1] Most of the victims of the White Terror were men, however, a number of women were tortured and/or executed.[

Why? MAD doesn't substantially change

I think the end of the US hegemon could lead to a nuclear conflict because they're desperate but that's not really other states fault

Global "rules based order" has always been bullshit, you don't challenge the rule of capital or you get couped, invaded, and/or sanctioned. That's the rules

Yet since early 1990s Taiwan has been a full democracy, that has contributed to the international community despite Chinese efforts to stifle it.
Shall we bring up every democratic country's past before it became one.

I wonder if those 'sane' people would like to voluntarily give all that they have and have worked for when the neighbor bully comes by saying his house doesn't belong to him.
Kind of sounds like the Brits arbitrarily drawing lines on maps.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Seems there's a lot of barracking for Xi on this thread, or more to the point anti liberal democracy. Be careful what you wish for.

 

[barreness]

Yet since early 1990s Taiwan has been a full democracy, that has contributed to the international community despite Chinese efforts to stifle it.

Of course, yet they still consider themselves as the rightful leader of China. Most other states agree that they are a civil war hold out, ala the US not having an official ambassador

Shall we bring up every democratic country's past before it became one.

If you want, democracy is a joke anyway. Two party systems with barely a difference outside the neoliberal paradigm that the US allows

I wonder if those 'sane' people would like to voluntarily give all that they have and have worked for when the neighbor bully comes by saying his house doesn't belong to him.

Why would they lose anything? not like China doesn't allow private property or anything, I guess the big industrialists might lose out but no one is taking their houses

Kind of sounds like the Brits arbitrarily drawing lines on maps.

Ironic that the HK protesters were imprisoned under British laws rather than Chinese ones. I'm sure they got a vote under Britain.......oh no wait

 

[Spearman]

Of course, yet they still consider themselves as the rightful leader of China. Most other states agree that they are a civil war hold out, ala the US not having an official ambassador

If you want, democracy is a joke anyway. Two party systems with barely a difference outside the neoliberal paradigm that the US allows

Why would they lose anything? not like China doesn't allow private property or anything, I guess the big industrialists might lose out but no one is taking their houses

Ironic that the HK protesters were imprisoned under British laws rather than Chinese ones. I'm sure they got a vote under Britain.......oh no wait

That would be the KMT, the Chinese Nationalist Party, that lost the Presidency, the majority the the Legislative Yuan, and much of the local government. They got spanked hard when it was found out their candidate was getting help from the Chinese. They would gladly sell out Taiwan and have tried.
The DPP has held power for some time. They are Taiwanese, and do not consider themselves a part of China. Most of the country don't either. Every move China makes reduces any connection. No sane Taiwanese wants to reunify.
As far as being a civil war hold out, that is one-party state era thinking. If other countries actually hold that view it would be surprising. They acquiesce for economic reasons pure and simple. They all want a piece of China's business.
CKS effed up totally when he gave the ultimatum of ROC or PRC to the world, and the Taiwanese are still paying for it.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Another reason you can't trust anyone from China

3 Chinese men arrested with 2,000 SIM cards near border

TAK - Highway police arrested three Chinese men and a Thai man with about 2,000 new SIM cards on Highway 12 (Sukhothai-Tak) in tambon Nam Ruem of Muang district on Monday morning.

www.bangkokpost.com

 

[barreness]

That would be the KMT, the Chinese Nationalist Party, that lost the Presidency, the majority the the Legislative Yuan, and much of the local government. They got spanked hard when it was found out their candidate was getting help from the Chinese. They would gladly sell out Taiwan and have tried.
The DPP has held power for some time. They are Taiwanese, and do not consider themselves a part of China. Most of the country don't either. Every move China makes reduces any connection. No sane Taiwanese wants to reunify.
As far as being a civil war hold out, that is one-party state era thinking. If other countries actually hold that view it would be surprising. They acquiesce for economic reasons pure and simple. They all want a piece of China's business.
CKS effed up totally when he gave the ultimatum of ROC or PRC to the world, and the Taiwanese are still paying for it.

Yeh I've done the deep dive on Taiwan politics, can't really argue with you here, all positions are understandable(CCP,KMT,DPP) imo. KMT aren't that far off it and as is standard with duopolies will probably take back power at some point. In power 2012, two catastrophic losses then regained some seats in the previous two. It is kinda ironic that they have a more concillitory position towards the mainland atm

They are ethnically and historically Chinese(unless we go back to Polynesian sovereignty). Also built their wealth as a narco state with CIA backing. Have done well out of this with current high tech industry

You live there right? I'd say the status quo is the best case short term. Can't see the CCP allowing a western asset to remain so close, some concessions to stop war/blockade will probably be required.

I don't think Aus should get involved at all, this mythical "liberal rules based order" will only get us into trouble

 

[rank and file]

China bullish on BRICS bringing peace.
Harmony through hierarchy,the Chinese way,where government is not a necessary evil but a necessary good.
China has also been buying up loads of gold.

 

[Spearman]

The KMT are scum, their golden boy Ma was ready to cede sovereignty to a zone near the international airport, and he's still making trips to China. Until the very latest generation their leadership class lived in their own bubble. They ran Taiwan as their own little kingdom. I've been to some of the resorts and other party only locations that they set up for themselves. At one point they were the richest political party in the world.
They still get some votes, for sure. Except for the old timers who still believe their propaganda,(during the first DPP admin they controlled all but one cable news outlet), I think their voters are the type who are cyclical because their economic situation is never good, or are bored with the current one and want something new. They recently tried to ram through some legislative procedure without letting anyone know what was in them. They made a coalition with a new party headed by a political 'superstar' to get more votes than the majority DPP. You may have the fighting on the news.
The Taiwanese who came across originally were Hakka, then Fujianese and they came against the emperor's ban on travel to Taiwan. The Qing sent their reps to the island late in the game, and never controlled more than the western plains and foothills. The Japanese were the first to pacify most of the island. The ROC pillaged the island postwar, slaughtered anyone who thought who was educated or thought about challenging anything about KMT rule. Those generations I think developed a Stockholm mentality. They had CKS portraits and busts in every school, couldn't speak Taiwanese there, couldn't even dance under martial law. It is only the generations that grew up under the democratic reforms and elections that have overwhelming rejected China. It is they who should decide Taiwan's fate, not some foreigners giving them to the Chinese.
The DPP have been pragmatic about not pushing for independence openly. They just want space to do their thing. While both are always working the margins to expand their positions, the Chinese are particularly reprehensible about it. They demanded all aid for disasters be channeled through them. They tried to stop Taiwan from helping the WHO during covid. They are setting up their own police in other countries to repress their citizens there and others that have emigrated out.
Yes the status quo is really all they want. And too many don't even want them to have that.

 

[sdfc]

Another reason you can't trust anyone from China

3 Chinese men arrested with 2,000 SIM cards near border

TAK - Highway police arrested three Chinese men and a Thai man with about 2,000 new SIM cards on Highway 12 (Sukhothai-Tak) in tambon Nam Ruem of Muang district on Monday morning.

www.bangkokpost.com

Anyone? Should I be worried about the people over the road?

 

[rank and file]

Anyone? Should I be worried about the people over the road?

Play the long game,be neighbourly and try and ingratiate yourself when they're cooking up a big feed.
You won't regret it and you won't end up in a re-education camp like Aussie in exile