Analysis Coronavirus - The Impact III “WA - An Island within an Island”

[Forward Press]

You don't realise is the economy is people's lives too. Have a look at mortality rates during financial downturns. Deaths from mental health, homelessness and poverty all spike.

Are you suggesting then that 'business as usual' was the best approach to save lives?

If so - well, I really don't have any words...

 

[RookiePick]

Are you suggesting then that 'business as usual' was the best approach to save lives?

If so - well, I really don't have any words...

It's mind boggling. Create some straw man herd immunity waffle and then proceed to argue from there.

Meanwhile the US surges toward 50k deaths

 

[Max zero]

Are you suggesting then that 'business as usual' was the best approach to save lives?

If so - well, I really don't have any words...

It's mind boggling. Create some straw man herd immunity waffle and then proceed to argue from there.

Meanwhile the US surges toward 50k deaths

Wow 2 posts about something I didn't say.

Nice strawman.

No I mentioned nothing about herd immunity or business as usual. Don't know why you have to lie.

My point was there are downsides to the 'elimination' strategy that may well be worse then the 'supression' one. It is not the perfect no downside approach that some are making it out as.

 

[Forward Press]

Wow 2 posts about something I didn't say.

Nice strawman.

No I mentioned nothing about herd immunity or business as usual. Don't know why you have to lie.

My point was there are downsides to the 'elimination' strategy that may well be worse then the 'supression' one. It is not the perfect no downside approach that some are making it out as.

Of course there are downsides - DV and suicide rates will go up - but what is your proposed alternative?

 

[Max zero]

Of course there are downsides - DV and suicide rates will go up - but what is your proposed alternative?

Continue the supression strategy but move toward limited reopening in the next few months while still isolating high risk people. A slow graduated opening watching for possible outbreaks.

 

[Forward Press]

Continue the supression strategy but move toward limited reopening in the next few months while still isolating high risk people. A slow graduated opening watching for possible outbreaks.

How are you so certain we won't have limited reopening in the next few months?

WA is already encouraging kids to go back to school, for example. There is plenty of discussion about a phased reopening all over Australia.

I am aware of your position in the other politics-related thread on this board but I just cannot agree with you keeping on about people's mental health and the effects of economic downturns because it's implying that the restrictions are too tight. Do you think they are too harsh? Of course there are massive consequences of a stage 3 lockdown, no one is denying that - but what is the alternative?

 

[Luuuc]

2 single-digit days in a row for Australia & zero-digit days for WA. Outstanding.

 

[Max zero]

How are you so certain we won't have limited reopening in the next few months?

WA is already encouraging kids to go back to school, for example. There is plenty of discussion about a phased reopening all over Australia.

I am aware of your position in the other politics-related thread on this board but I just cannot agree with you keeping on about people's mental health and the effects of economic downturns because it's implying that the restrictions are too tight. Do you think they are too harsh?

You have to understand I was replying to a poster who supported an elimination stategy (ie bunker up till next year).

I am happy with the current approach. There has to be balanced.

I like to keep politics seperate since I know it can get quite heated and disruptive so I leave it there.

 

[Forward Press]

You have to understand I was replying to a poster who supported an elimination stategy (ie bunker up till next year).

I am happy with the current approach.

Don't think we're going to go down that road anyway, even I would be irritated if this level of restrictions continues until 2021. The government has indicated the financial assistance packages would continue until September and I think that's what they're aiming for.

 

[Rowan18]

Continue the supression strategy but move toward limited reopening in the next few months while still isolating high risk people. A slow graduated opening watching for possible outbreaks.

This is precisely what the state and federal governments have announced they will do. They have specifically said they are not aiming for elimination.

 

[Max zero]

This is precisely what the state and federal governments have announced they will do. They have specifically said they are not aiming for elimination.

Yeah I know. I approve of the current course.

I was originally replying to the idea of elimination. To me elimination does not solve anything its just a delaying tactic.

 

[ashley12]

There are now a few islands that have actually elminated the virus (Greenland, St. Lucia, a few other ones).

Will be fascinating to see what their plans are for the next few weeks, and if any of those islands/nations end up having surprising resurfaces of the disease.

New Zealand will also be a fascinating case to follow, as they head towards only a few hundred active cases out of 1500 total so far.

RE: The footy, I think that the entire AFL will have to do the quarantine thing for all sides including the Vics purely because of the risk of infecting the entire playing group if a Victorian player associates with someone from outside the bubble and infects their whole team.

In this era of cost cutting I can see why it is cheaper to have to fly in 8 teams to a hub as opposed to 16 or 18. Even things like physios and trainers can become a shared resource by all the clubs.

Alice Springs and other smaller destinations, while good in theory in regards to competitive balance, probably don't have enough rooms to staff the 2000 or so players/coaching staff/admin/AFL officials in a way that can be away from the general population. In honesty the practice of playing 6-8 games on the MCG is probably a bonus for a team in our window anyway (assuming if there were two games on a day, that Saints hosting Pies would be at the Dome while Eagles hosting Crows would be at the G etc...

 

[Bestbird]

As weird as it sounds. The Government should be having a look at what is happening in the wuhan province in China since that was the first place to go into social isolation lockdown and has now lifted some of the restrictions.

 

[2006_Eagles]

The Island of Doctor McGowan

 

[Yamumluvsbigcox]

As weird as it sounds. The Government should be having a look at what is happening in the wuhan province in China since that was the first place to go into social isolation lockdown and has now lifted some of the restrictions.

Problem is would we get accurate data .

 

[Biggie]

 

[Bestbird]

Problem is would we get accurate data .

And this has been part of the problem with not seeing properly what has been happening in China and clouding the issue with mistrust

Wuhan and the Hubei province went in lockdown mode, social isolation in late January. The world new about this and it was widely reported in the press. So it was pretty obvious that the virus was spreading really fast, see the images of China making the makeshift hospital. Around this time some Asian Nations were acting fairly quickly due to there exposure to SARS several years before

Yet most Countries, particularly in the western world didn't take serious heed of the issue till Mid March. Example Scott Morrison wanting to go to NRL on the 13 March. Luckily unlike parts of Europe and the USA due to our geographical location and the state and federal governments getting there act together we have avoided a major issue so far.

 

[Truckosaurus]

There's also the added issue that China and South Korea are both reporting cases of people testing as positive again after previously recovering, although we don't know why or if they're contagious.

 

[Forward Press]

There's also the added issue that China and South Korea are both reporting cases of people testing as positive again after previously recovering, although we don't know why or if they're contagious.

Likely to be false negatives from the initial test after recovery, or it's picking up remnants of inactive virus, but either way it demonstrates the critical importance in buying time so we can figure out more about the virus. Imagine if you were a country that flirted with herd immunity at the beginning and the news filters through that it's possible to catch it a second time within a month.

 

[Truckosaurus]

Or imagine if you were in a country where your leader suggested injecting disinfectants to kill the virus:

Trump Suggested Experts Find A Way To Inject Light Or Disinfectants Into Human Bodies To Kill The Coronavirus

"The whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute. That's, uh, that's pretty powerful."

www.buzzfeednews.com

 

[Chris_6678]

2 More cases in Perth today.

1 Unknown and 1 From overseas plus 1 death.

 

[Rowan18]

Likely to be false negatives from the initial test after recovery, or it's picking up remnants of inactive virus, but either way it demonstrates the critical importance in buying time so we can figure out more about the virus. Imagine if you were a country that flirted with herd immunity at the beginning and the news filters through that it's possible to catch it a second time within a month.

If it is true that we cant get herd immunity then we are all completely stuffed as the virus will never go away. I find this to be highly unlikely.

You are right about buying time. We can move forward slowly and watch how the other countries go, then implement the strategy that works best.

 

[Biggie]

 

[Forward Press]

If it is true that we cant get herd immunity then we are all completely stuffed as the virus will never go away. I find this to be highly unlikely.

You are right about buying time. We can move forward slowly and watch how the other countries go, then implement the strategy that works best.

There will be immunity obviously - I mean, that's how you recover from viruses and other diseases - but the question is how long it is. If there is the unlikely scenario that your immunity only lasts for a month then that throws the herd immunity theory out of whack.

 

[Biggie]