Cryptocurrency mega-thread

[Yellow Feathers]

One last flush down and then take off. Or perhaps that was it. Either way, not long to go now.

 

[beez]

One last flush down and then take off. Or perhaps that was it. Either way, not long to go now.

Big dump this weekend please.

 

[Angus Young]

If you have lots invested you need Mr Trump back in office.

Bitcoin going to fire soon.

 

[Bostonian]

A Republican win would be a huge boost for crypto in the US.

 

[BACCS]

Roaring Kitty is back for stocks, GME pumped 100% overnight with a few cryptic videos on his Twitter after a 3 year hiatus. Good signal for retail returning a big way soon. Lines up with my theory of the final leg of this bull happening in the leadup to the US election.

 

[Bostonian]

Some Bipartisan support is a good sign.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/17/crypto-congress-democrats-00158630

 

[Yesterday Dog]

Invest in James Harmes

22

James Harmes

Age

28

Ht

186cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.4

5star

K

9.4

4star

HB

10.0

5star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.1

5star

CL

2.4

4star

D

16.3

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

8.9

4star

M

2.9

3star

T

1.6

3star

CL

1.9

4star

D

10.6

3star

K

5.2

2star

HB

5.4

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

1.8

4star

CL

0.2

2star

 

[BACCS]

SEC has done a complete 180 due to rumoured political pressures and look like approving the ETH spot ETF in a couple of days... market had not priced this in at all and is responding in a big way. Definitely helps my thesis that the bull plays out in full before the US election.

 

[BACCS]

I know this place has been dead for a while, but if anyone is interested, I've got strong belief that Q3 should be quite bullish for crypto. The ETH spot ETF will launch, liquidity conditions in the US are improving (potentially see the first rate cut) and hype around the US election will start to ramp up (where Trump has made pro-crypto part of his campaign to try get those swing states on his side).

Even just this chart highlights that alts relative to BTC are in an almost identical position to the end of October last year (RSI, price level, stablecoin flows have flattened). This doesn't look like a bearish chart to me, it looks like a chart that has consolidated at a higher low after the first leg of the cycle and is ready for the next one!

A dovish CPI print and FOMC later this week likely gives the market fuel for risk-on to return in a big way.

 

[MrsBlueSky]

I know this place has been dead for a while, but if anyone is interested, I've got strong belief that Q3 should be quite bullish for crypto. The ETH spot ETF will launch, liquidity conditions in the US are improving (potentially see the first rate cut) and hype around the US election will start to ramp up (where Trump has made pro-crypto part of his campaign to try get those swing states on his side).

Even just this chart highlights that alts relative to BTC are in an almost identical position to the end of October last year (RSI, price level, stablecoin flows have flattened). This doesn't look like a bearish chart to me, it looks like a chart that has consolidated at a higher low after the first leg of the cycle and is ready for the next one!

A dovish CPI print and FOMC later this week likely gives the market fuel for risk-on to return in a big way.

View attachment 2016676

So how many do you suggest I buy?

 

[BACCS]

So how many do you suggest I buy?

That is up to you

 

[MrsBlueSky]

That is up to you

Is it such a sure thing that I could mortgage my house on?

 

[beez]

Way to crash the price, BACCS

 

[BACCS]

Way to crash the price, BACCS

Standard dump as per the last 4 FOMC meetings, doubt this time is any different. Have a similar rally from here and 80k on the cards by end of June…



BTC, ETH and total3 all just sitting at those key supports still anyway and haven’t lost bullish structure in months.

 

[bzparkes]

Standard dump as per the last 4 FOMC meetings, doubt this time is any different. Have a similar rally from here and 80k on the cards by end of June…



BTC, ETH and total3 all just sitting at those key supports still anyway and haven’t lost bullish structure in months.

Just ranging sideways. Expect one more capitulation before taking off. The first parabolic move of the last cycle happened around 6 months after the halving. It's different this time with all the ETFs enabling easier access for more money into the market but once the news cycle starts to become bullish about the price of Bitcoin, that's when you'll know institutions have loaded up their bags enough before pushing the price up to take profits.

 

[BACCS]

Just ranging sideways. Expect one more capitulation before taking off. The first parabolic move of the last cycle happened around 6 months after the halving. It's different this time with all the ETFs enabling easier access for more money into the market but once the news cycle starts to become bullish about the price of Bitcoin, that's when you'll know institutions have loaded up their bags enough before pushing the price up to take profits.

I think we are at a similar stage to October/November 2020, where alt sentiment was at absolute rock bottom even though BTC was trading near new highs. Alts vs BTC are at range lows that have held since last July (also hit in October and wicked there briefly in May); interestingly, it is also the level where alts went truly parabolic from in 2021.

Everything macro, chart and sentiment wise is exactly where you expect it to be before it starts ripping up and leaving people behind. At worst from here I see BTC wick into 63-64k over the upcoming weekend due to lower volume and then it flies to 80k+ by early July.

Sentiment comparison:


Chart:

 

[bzparkes]

I think we are at a similar stage to October/November 2020, where alt sentiment was at absolute rock bottom even though BTC was trading near new highs. Alts vs BTC are at range lows that have held since last July (also hit in October and wicked there briefly in May); interestingly, it is also the level where alts went truly parabolic from in 2021.

Everything macro, chart and sentiment wise is exactly where you expect it to be before it starts ripping up and leaving people behind. At worst from here I see BTC wick into 63-64k over the upcoming weekend due to lower volume and then it flies to 80k+ by early July.

Sentiment comparison:


Chart:
View attachment 2019479

Yep, I feel the same way. Barely any mention of it in mainstream news outlets, despite the recent highs and lows.

Still a few months off from a real parabolic move, so it'll be accumulation at these levels for a little while longer.

 

[BACCS]

Yep, I feel the same way. Barely any mention of it in mainstream news outlets, despite the recent highs and lows.

Still a few months off from a real parabolic move, so it'll be accumulation at these levels for a little while longer.

I am confident though that most alts will be trading 50-100% higher than current levels before the alts go parabolic, which I still think is lining up for maybe September (if the first rate cut happens then) or October. BTC hits 100k by August if this scenario plays out.

 

[bzparkes]

I am confident though that most alts will be trading 50-100% higher than current levels before the alts go parabolic, which I still think is lining up for maybe September (if the first rate cut happens then) or October. BTC hits 100k by August if this scenario plays out.

Yeah, alts haven't really kicked off yet and usually lag behind BTC in that regard. Should be an interesting cycle to see if it plays out much differently than previous ones.

 

[BACCS]

Yeah, alts haven't really kicked off yet and usually lag behind BTC in that regard. Should be an interesting cycle to see if it plays out much differently than previous ones.

I thought it might, but that sentiment check from late gave me a reality check, it really aint different at all. The only thing different about this cycle is BTC hitting a new ATH earlier because of the ETFs, which maybe means the cycle is playing out 6 months earlier than it normally would. I think we see a new ATH for ETH before September too, especially with the ETF going live before then.

 

[bzparkes]

I thought it might, but that sentiment check from late gave me a reality check, it really aint different at all. The only thing different about this cycle is BTC hitting a new ATH earlier because of the ETFs, which maybe means the cycle is playing out 6 months earlier than it normally would. I think we see a new ATH for ETH before September too, especially with the ETF going live before then.

That's true although I think the majority of retail will begin to FOMO in when the good news cycle hits MSM. Be interesting to see how much of an impact they have this time around.

 

[PoppedCorn]

2029 im out
hopefully


the coloured left is months until next halving

 

[BACCS]

One chart is all you need to explain the bear market level vibes of CT atm (RSI lower pane). BTC just consolidates in a tight range near ATHs for 3.5 months and alts have bled like crazy without any fresh capital coming in (stablecoin inflows flat for 3 months).

All I know is that this chart is oversold and the BTC chart has remained bullish since last October. Once BTC breaks higher, alts will send hard and make light work of this recent PA.