Analysis Derek Hine

[Kappa]

If this is what I'll be reading on here all throughout the pre-season... I think I'll stay away until round one.

Yes don't you hate when people put forward level headed opinions that aren't sunshine lollipops and rainbows

Really kills the buzz

 

[Bay Pie]

Huh? Brown? No. Outside the odd frustration from a mistake here or there, Brown, I was actually one of his few defenders on here. Even after he was dropped for ONE bad game against Kennedy. Frost? No f**king doubt I ripped in. But I'm not sure what the point is.

My post was about our key position players and why we don't or haven't had them. My opinion on said players is irrelevant. It's to do with why they're leaving or why they haven't been playing.

One bad game from Brown ? I'll just leave it at, I disagree. Turnover merchant who struggled to keep pace with speedy forwards like Ben Brown.

They're leaving because they are shit. Pretty common theme amongst all those players getting punted. All poor ball users.

I think you'll find Gubby is the one making the list decisions, but carry on. He oversees the footy department, including Bucks, but I think you knew that.

 

[regpies]

The Australian has a story just up online that suggests Gubby will have doping charges. Hine could end up being our GM of footy pretty soon.

 

[Pie eyed]

The title thread sounds like an episode name of the

Big Bang theory

Had a double take...still think it should be tilted "The Hine Heresay"

 

[jackcass]

I don't think that it's due to unbalanced recruiting. I think that it's due to the decline/overrating of the stocks that we had on the list.

A couple of guys have fallen off a cliff and a couple have not kicked on as expected.

Forwards - If Cloke was the star that we thought he'd still be - tall forward stocks of Cloke, Moore, White with Cox developing wouldn't look too bad, especially as I think they thought Witts would develop and they'd go with 2 rucks The time would be right now to draft a young one to develop.

With defenders - I think they expected Brown to be good, Frost to have become good, likewise Keeffe and Marsh. Add those expectations to a fit Reid and you'd have healthy stocks.

Whether the incorrect expectations is the fault of the list manager or the coaching staff is only really known by the inner sanctum in terms of who makes the calls on current players and their futures. Likewise it could also be due to mediocre development coaching.

Agree.

I think we're also paying a price for trading out of early draft picks in 2009, 10 & 11. Admittedly, 2009 likely won us the 2010 GF but neither Jolly or Ball are still with us.

I think we're also paying a price for sustained success. We've rarely gotten top 10 picks let alone top 5 and it's no surprise that that is where the real quality lies.

I think we're also seeing the impacts of the compromised drafts as a consequence of the GCS and GWS introductions. Not only did that dilute the talent, but it further denied clubs access to those top 10 and top 5 picks.

Then, as other have already stated, we've had a bit of bad luck.

It is what it is.

 

[noideaatall]

Agree.
I think we're also paying a price for trading out of early draft picks in 2009, 10 & 11. Admittedly, 2009 likely won us the 2010 GF but neither Jolly or Ball are still with us.
I think we're also paying a price for sustained success. We've rarely gotten top 10 picks let alone top 5 and it's no surprise that that is where the real quality lies.
I think we're also seeing the impacts of the compromised drafts as a consequence of the GCS and GWS introductions. Not only did that dilute the talent, but it further denied clubs access to those top 10 and top 5 picks.
Then, as other have already stated, we've had a bit of bad luck.
It is what it is.

Good point. The impact of drafting is on a longer cycle than most of us fans accept in terms of success.

We do seem to have focused on big bodied mids since Bucks has come on board and IMO tried to make a silk purse out of a pigs ear in terms of players like Keefe and Marsh. Who actually is responsible for list management/who we spend our draft wealth on? Hine, Bucks or Gubby? I want to know who to blame. Should the key thread for 2017 be focused on whether or not to sack Gubby?

 

[dlammardo]

1 pick that really annoyed me was the selection of Brayden Sier. Given the circumstances being, we had no first round pick that yr or next, we had to pick the best available. Instead we go with a speculative pick who could've been picked up later on if not as a rookie. Maybe I am alone in thinking this, but it came across as arrogant. Like as if our list was so great, we could take a risk on him.

Here's hoping he can get his body right and prove me wrong. But given some of the players picked up between Sier's pick and our next pick (Phillips), it's difficult to understand his decision.

He is bloody good at picking up good players with rookie picks & low national draft picks though

 

[jadami1973]

It's Buckley fault


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Surely Hine is given a breif by the haed coach of what he wants. Blaming Hine for the list is yet another Buckley scape goat

 

[Leviathan Pie]

In Hine we trust...or do we?

One of the emerging themes of recent seasons has been an increasing unbalance in our list as a whole. Our failure to invest quality picks in KPP's is now coming home to roost, and our fixation on questionably skilled inside types is also in the process of being unpicked.

This off seasons sees the problems coming to a head. A combination of recruiting player by player rather than big picture, and some questionable contract decisions have left us exposed. Overall list strategy I would argue has shown to be a failure and the evidence is there to be seen as we initiate a rebuild of the rebuild.

From everything I have heard, Derek Hine is well respected in the AFL community as a recruiter.

My impression is that he is generally one of the best at identifying a suitable candidate as "best available" especially with lower picks.

But is list management as opposed to recruiting a step above his ability?

Did the loss of Walsh, and introduction of Balme ostensibly as Director of Football but practically as Nathan's helpmate leave us exposed on the strategic level and when it came to contract negotiations?

Over to you.

I agree, I think Hine is the most over-rated commodity in our club at this point in time.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Key Position (excluding ruckman) drafted since 2011:

2011
3rd round: Jackson Paine, Corey Gault
Rookies: Michael Hartley

2012
Rookies: Jack Frost, Ben Richmond

2013
5th round: Jonathan Marsh
Rookies: Corey Gault

2014
1st Round: Darcy Moore

2015
Rookies: Lachlan Keeffe


So apart from Darcy Moore, who was a father-son, the next earliest pick we have used to draft a key position player is pick 50, Jackson Paine in 2011. Pretty damning. Expecting late speculative picks and rookie selections to become key position AFL players is pretty piss poor planning considering 4-5 key position players are required from a best 22.

Its becomes even worse when you think about how injury prone our team is. Especially someone like Ben Reid. And yet we still don't want to draft key position players as cover for injury prone players.

Edit: if you go back another 4 years just prior to 2006 (Reid/Brown/Dawes) draft, the earliest key position player picked was pick 47, Toby Thoolen. So we have neglected drafting key position players for almost 10 years.

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

Not putting enough emphasis on kicking skills and high end talent has been the biggest issue with our drafting/trading if you ask me. Our list was crying out for kicking skills and for years running they kept bringing in guys who had kicking issues. It was like we were trying to be the anti-Hawthorn.

The OP has been hijacked by our KPP woes, whereas I think disposal weakness and outside players are Hine's major list oversights. We should have taken Wright or Marchbank rather than De Goey in 2014, when we had the opportunity, and along with Moore, loaded up on talls. The Scharenberg/Freeman draft was a disaster, but perhaps Hine can only be held responsible for Freeman, though Scharenberg still needs to prove he was worth the wait. He's done OK with the later picks, but I would agree that the praise for his work exaggerates his worth. We do have too many inside mids and medium/small defender types.

 

[WalterBlaknWhte]

The Australian has a story just up online that suggests Gubby will have doping charges. Hine could end up being our GM of footy pretty soon.

As long as Gubby gets his 1 telephone call per week he can pull all the strings he needs

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

1 pick that really annoyed me was the selection of Brayden Sier. Given the circumstances being, we had no first round pick that yr or next, we had to pick the best available. Instead we go with a speculative pick who could've been picked up later on if not as a rookie. Maybe I am alone in thinking this, but it came across as arrogant. Like as if our list was so great, we could take a risk on him.

Here's hoping he can get his body right and prove me wrong. But given some of the players picked up between Sier's pick and our next pick (Phillips), it's difficult to understand his decision.

He is bloody good at picking up good players with rookie picks & low national draft picks though

If you want to test the depth of poster tolerance for dissent, head over to the Sier thread and question the wisdom of picking him. He has lots of friends lurking there waiting to pounce on anyone reflecting negatively on his selection.

The Australian has a story just up online that suggests Gubby will have doping charges. Hine could end up being our GM of footy pretty soon.

Caroline Wilson was adamant he would get a suspension. We shall see.

 

[jackcass]

Key Position (excluding ruckman) drafted since 2011:

2011
3rd round: Jackson Paine, Corey Gault
Rookies: Michael Hartley

2012
Rookies: Jack Frost, Ben Richmond

2013
5th round: Jonathan Marsh
Rookies: Corey Gault

2014
1st Round: Darcy Moore

2015
Rookies: Lachlan Keeffe


So apart from Darcy Moore, who was a father-son, the next earliest pick we have used to draft a key position player is pick 50, Jackson Paine in 2011. Pretty damning. Expecting late speculative picks and rookie selections to become key position AFL players is pretty piss poor planning considering 4-5 key position players are required from a best 22.

Its becomes even worse when you think about how injury prone our team is. Especially someone like Ben Reid. And yet we still don't want to draft key position players as cover for injury prone players.

Edit: if you go back another 4 years just prior to 2006 (Reid/Brown/Dawes) draft, the earliest key position player picked was pick 47, Toby Thoolen. So we have neglected drafting key position players for almost 10 years.

Jackson Paine @ pick 50 was actually our 1st live pick in the 2011 draft.

And you need to look at those picks in the context of who else we had. Traded in Tarrant in 2011, still had Dawes. So we've drafted development options in Frost, Paine, Gault, Hartley and Richmond, they just haven't panned out.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Jackson Paine @ pick 50 was actually our 1st live pick in the 2011 draft.

And you need to look at those picks in the context of who else we had. Traded in Tarrant in 2011, still had Dawes. So we've drafted development options in Frost, Paine, Gault, Hartley and Richmond, they just haven't panned out.

So we also have a problem with player development.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Jackson Paine @ pick 50 was actually our 1st live pick in the 2011 draft.

And you need to look at those picks in the context of who else we had. Traded in Tarrant in 2011, still had Dawes. So we've drafted development options in Frost, Paine, Gault, Hartley and Richmond, they just haven't panned out.

Your not giving yourself a proper chance if waiting til pick 50 and beyond to find a key position player that will pan out. It is much easier to find a flanker or midfielder in the later rounds than a key position player yet we still go the smaller option for our 2nd and 3rd rounders, the likes of Sier, Maynard, Ramsay, Goodyear etc when we probably should taking a key position player.

 

[Bad Horse]

Jackson Paine @ pick 50 was actually our 1st live pick in the 2011 draft.

And you need to look at those picks in the context of who else we had. Traded in Tarrant in 2011, still had Dawes. So we've drafted development options in Frost, Paine, Gault, Hartley and Richmond, they just haven't panned out.

I guess that is the point im trying to make.

That list of draftees for that period contains a rookie, a pick in the 50's, another in the 60's, a NSW rookie, and a cat b rookie from another sport.

In these modern times, the chances of scoring a functional KPP in the lower stages has reduced significantly, more so for KPF than KPB.

I would argue the probability if picking up a functional player from that lot as a whole is still less than what you would expect from one top 10 pick.

Hence why aggressively trading out of the top rounds of so many drafts followed by not taking KPP when we do have top level picks is a list management problem. You can probably find decent inside mids down there, or HBF types. You wont find KPP.

 

[MarkT2]

So we also have a problem with player development.

It's hard to distinguish between development v drafting/talent gaps. I don't think we've drafted enough quality. We went hard at the 2012 draft and got Grundy who we would haev had regardless. The next 2 picks were Kennedy who's gone and not setting the world on fire at Melbourne and Broomhead who either isn't good enouigh or hasn't been developed well enough - or both. I know he's had some injuries but he's shown no signs of elite talent. He could still be a serviceable players but no more IMO.

 

[Buckley is my hero]

All good points being raised in this thread. Rodney Eade when he was at the club, wouldn't have helped our situation either. When Rodney was coach at the WB's he didn't develop any KPP's there. Hine doesn't have a strong record with KPP's. Our two best in Cloke and Moore are both F/S's. Gault was recruited as a KPP who plays as a mid. White was recruited from Sydney because of his athleticism. There seems to be a lack of understanding of what constitutes a KPP. The game has changed and evolved and the role of KPP's have changed to one of more gut running and defensive play, but it is a huge leap to draw the conclusion that you can get by playing a single ruckman with mids and flankers making up the rest of the 22.

 

[jackcass]

So we also have a problem with player development.

So Hartley aside (body didn't hold up) you think another club would have extracted more from Frost, Paine, Gault, and Richmond?

 

[doodles98]

All good points being raised in this thread. Rodney Eade when he was at the club, wouldn't have helped our situation either. When Rodney was coach at the WB's he didn't develop any KPP's there. Hine doesn't have a strong record with KPP's. Our two best in Cloke and Moore are both F/S's. Gault was recruited as a KPP who plays as a mid. White was recruited from Sydney because of his athleticism. There seems to be a lack of understanding of what constitutes a KPP. The game has changed and evolved and the role of KPP's have changed to one of more gut running and defensive play, but it is a huge leap to draw the conclusion that you can get by playing a single ruckman with mids and flankers making up the rest of the 22.

I have thought for decades that teams would evolve to this one day. There just aren't enough Riewolts/Richos to go around and playing a bunch of low possession low quality 6'5 guys just to play on the other teams 6'5 guys is a losing strategy if yours aren't the quality talls. Let them go tall and you go small with greater quality and pressure and speed/ball winning. Be interesting to see the results.

 

[jackcass]

Your not giving yourself a proper chance if waiting til pick 50 and beyond to find a key position player that will pan out. It is much easier to find a flanker or midfielder in the later rounds than a key position player yet we still go the smaller option for our 2nd and 3rd rounders, the likes of Sier, Maynard, Ramsay, Goodyear etc when we probably should taking a key position player.

As I suggested earlier in the thread, trading out of those early picks in 09, 10 & 11 might get you some short term gain but generally results in longer term pain.

But you still need to look at who we drafted in the context of who was on the list at that time. 2012 we had O'Shea, Gault, Ceglar, Witts, Wood all playing F50/ruck in the VFL. How many KPP+ types can you carry? Why would we have drafted another at the 2011 draft?

 

[jackcass]

It's hard to distinguish between development v drafting/talent gaps. I don't think we've drafted enough quality. We went hard at the 2012 draft and got Grundy who we would haev had regardless. The next 2 picks were Kennedy who's gone and not setting the world on fire at Melbourne and Broomhead who either isn't good enouigh or hasn't been developed well enough - or both. I know he's had some injuries but he's shown no signs of elite talent. He could still be a serviceable players but no more IMO.

But even in 2012, our 1st pick was at pick 18.

And just out of interest, point me to the KPP from the 2012 draft that have set the league on fire... Daniher aside as he was a F/S and we had no chance to grab him.

People bemoan the lack of KPP types drafted but the 2012 draft was actually a classic case in point that there just wasn't many available.

 

[jackcass]

I guess that is the point im trying to make.

That list of draftees for that period contains a rookie, a pick in the 50's, another in the 60's, a NSW rookie, and a cat b rookie from another sport.

In these modern times, the chances of scoring a functional KPP in the lower stages has reduced significantly, more so for KPF than KPB.

I would argue the probability if picking up a functional player from that lot as a whole is still less than what you would expect from one top 10 pick.

Hence why aggressively trading out of the top rounds of so many drafts followed by not taking KPP when we do have top level picks is a list management problem. You can probably find decent inside mids down there, or HBF types. You wont find KPP.

But you still to look at those decisions and consider all the facts... who did we have on our list?... what sort of players were available in those drafts?...

 

[Saintly Viewed]

1 pick that really annoyed me was the selection of Brayden Sier. Given the circumstances being, we had no first round pick that yr or next, we had to pick the best available. Instead we go with a speculative pick who could've been picked up later on if not as a rookie. Maybe I am alone in thinking this, but it came across as arrogant. Like as if our list was so great, we could take a risk on him.

Here's hoping he can get his body right and prove me wrong. But given some of the players picked up between Sier's pick and our next pick (Phillips), it's difficult to understand his decision.

He is bloody good at picking up good players with rookie picks & low national draft picks though

It's an interesting take.
The one thing that sometimes happens is like with a good racehorse, patience is a vital ingredient.
We tend to view things from the prism is it good now.
Now Brayden may not be any good or never make it, but I'm assuming the thinking was if this project player gets to where we think he should be well he'll be a beauty.
I'm certain if they thought he would be available as a rookie that's where he'd be. I'm only assuming that.
I think Wills was another that you could say why not a rookie?
But let's say in a year or two Sier goes to a senior player it may be a wonderful present we open up.
May not happen ofcourse.