Analysis Derek Hine

[76woodenspooners]

Gubby could set up a blueprint/framework for the rest of the recruiting team to use. If their are any major blunders, then they might be shown the door.

If that were the way we did things at Collingwood, why would the recruiting team be sticking around?

 

[76woodenspooners]

I think you would find there are very much ways to easily get around all of that.

(2) maybe, (1) unlikely, (3) no chance.

 

[loki04]

Many proud Collingwood members who are appalled at the idea of their hard earned money going towards propping up other clubs.

And who could blame them?

It'd be tough to argue that us spending more money would have made that much difference to our fortunes.



Who knows, maybe real reason is that the club feels (rightly or wrongly) that development gives better bang for buck than recruitment?

Maybe the club feels that it's a waste of money to spend it on youth talent identification when we've gone without a pick 1 for two years, and even if we do spend all that money on getting the best players, there's no 'money back' guarantee in case they go and do two ACL's, or shred their hamstrings.

We cut back in development coaches too. They were the 2 areas hardest hit. IMO the worst 2 you could hit.

 

[Apex36]

We cut back in development coaches too. They were the 2 areas hardest hit. IMO the worst 2 you could hit.

Pert: We need to save money. Let's cut back our footy dept spend by reducing the budget of our recruiting and development.

Pert a few years later: WTF is going on? Why has our recruiting and player development turned to shit????

 

[jackcass]

You just listed a heap of rookie picks, NQR types, players at the back end of their careers or Rucks as proof of why we didn't need to draft and develop low end talent KPFs...

No, I just highlighted that we already had KPP types, have drafted and traded many more,as a reason why we'd looked at drafting/trading mids. Even went on to say that I'd have been happy to grab some high end KPP types instead. It's all well and good in hindsight to eveluate these players but as most seem to agree, KPP types need time so if you've got them you have to invest the time into them.

 

[loki04]

No, I just highlighted that we already had KPP types, have drafted and traded many more,as a reason why we'd looked at drafting/trading mids. Even went on to say that I'd have been happy to grab some high end KPP types instead. It's all well and good in hindsight to eveluate these players but as most seem to agree, KPP types need time so if you've got them you have to invest the time into them.

Yes they do take time but the ones you listed that fit that bill in Gault, Wyatt, Richmond were all taken very late or rookie picks, Gault you could see after the first 3 years of non improvement (and some glaring weakness) was a lost cause. Wyatt and Richmond didn't even last the 2 years.

Moore was taken as FS and the only KPP we have taken low end of the draft since the Reid and Brown draft a decade ago.

White was a mature recruit a tall HFF they knew his flaws and inconsistencies.

Witts was a Ruck.

Frost was another undersized KPD off the rookie list and with obvious flaws. Has done well to stay on a list and is at best competitive. I'd argue it is easier to find gold in KPD role late in drafts then Forwards.

Keeffe special project player taken outside the normal drafting system due to not playing Aussie rules prior to being selected. How they thought that would be sufficient coverage is anyone's guess? Has the athletic attributes not mental. This is again a long shot pick. Despite his relative early success.

Cloke was at the stage/age of most players "last"contract, around Degoeys recruitment if that draft is seen as Hines waterloo moment (Degoey is proving to be a good selection anyway but for arguments sake).
When a KPP hits 27/28 you should be starting to look at drafting their replacement so as to allow for development time and or the possibility the pick fails. KPF tend to take 3-5 years to consolidate and it is better to have a fit and in form Cloke helping develop them then not.

So no hindsight is needed just foresight.

We are about to have a similar decision to make re Ben Reid, do they bank on him playing top line footy for the next 4-5 years? or do they actively look to draft his successor over the next few drafts giving them time to develop in the 2ds with stints at AFL in between until ready to take the reigns.


They banked on Cloke and it back fired.

 

[Scodog10]

I don't think it would happen, a bunch of reasons ...

(1) Sure, Ed is on the list management committee, but so are a whole bunch of other people. I just can't see Ed sitting at the head of the table saying "right, we're going to delist player X and we're going to trade out player Y and we're going to trade in player Z", and then the rest of the table nodding in ascent and then shuffling off to carry out the orders. If that's how things happen, Gubby whispering in Ed's ear behind the scenes would be amongst the least of our problems.

(2) Gubby wouldn't have access to all the data to make those kinds of decisions, data that he would need to be inside the club to get access to. Many of these decisions would come down to things like player attitude, how resilient they are, how diligent they are in recovery, learning gameplan, being a positive influence on the culture of the team ... lots of stuff that can't be seen from the outside.

(3) The risk / reward just doesn't stack up. The reward of Gubby feeding list management info back to Ed really isn't that high. Although the chances of getting busted would be extremely low, the consequences if it did come out would be catastrophic - Public shaming of Collingwood and Ed, Ed stepping down as Collingwood President, stepping down as TFS host, severely damaging his career prospects, an end to Gubby ever working in the AFL ever again (or probably any WADA sanctioned sport for that matter).

If Ed even has a seat at that table it would be the single biggest problem our club has faced in his 20 year tenure, IMO.

 

[soreplums]

If that were the way we did things at Collingwood, why would the recruiting team be sticking around?

He set up the blue print at GWS and it's working well

 

[regpies]

He set up the blue print at GWS and it's working well

The blueprint at GWS had very little to do with Gubby. Once GC started and struggled terribly the league decided to give GWS even more draft picks.

Experienced players didn't want to go there, they only got the handful of players they got through extraordinary salaries. They were absolutely trying to get players but no one wanted to go so they were forced to go with youth.

When you look a bit harder their success rate for high draft picks is actually very poor. The myth is strong of SOS and Gubby being geniuses at GWS.

 

[soreplums]

The blueprint at GWS had very little to do with Gubby. Once GC started and struggled terribly the league decided to give GWS even more draft picks.

Experienced players didn't want to go there, they only got the handful of players they got through extraordinary salaries. They were absolutely trying to get players but no one wanted to go so they were forced to go with youth.

When you look a bit harder their success rate for high draft picks is actually very poor. The myth is strong of SOS and Gubby being geniuses at GWS.

SOS was not strong at GWS. Gubby is the one who went out and said pick the KPP's first over the mids as they can then be used as commodities for early draft picks. Granted they had the picks to do it, but he corrected SOS on his early predictions.

 

[jackcass]

Yes they do take time but the ones you listed that fit that bill in Gault, Wyatt, Richmond were all taken very late or rookie picks, Gault you could see after the first 3 years of non improvement (and some glaring weakness) was a lost cause. Wyatt and Richmond didn't even last the 2 years.

Moore was taken as FS and the only KPP we have taken low end of the draft since the Reid and Brown draft a decade ago.

White was a mature recruit a tall HFF they knew his flaws and inconsistencies.

Witts was a Ruck.

Frost was another undersized KPD off the rookie list and with obvious flaws. Has done well to stay on a list and is at best competitive. I'd argue it is easier to find gold in KPD role late in drafts then Forwards.

Keeffe special project player taken outside the normal drafting system due to not playing Aussie rules prior to being selected. How they thought that would be sufficient coverage is anyone's guess? Has the athletic attributes not mental. This is again a long shot pick. Despite his relative early success.

Cloke was at the stage/age of most players "last"contract, around Degoeys recruitment if that draft is seen as Hines waterloo moment (Degoey is proving to be a good selection anyway but for arguments sake).
When a KPP hits 27/28 you should be starting to look at drafting their replacement so as to allow for development time and or the possibility the pick fails. KPF tend to take 3-5 years to consolidate and it is better to have a fit and in form Cloke helping develop them then not.

So no hindsight is needed just foresight.

We are about to have a similar decision to make re Ben Reid, do they bank on him playing top line footy for the next 4-5 years? or do they actively look to draft his successor over the next few drafts giving them time to develop in the 2ds with stints at AFL in between until ready to take the reigns.


They banked on Cloke and it back fired.

Clearly you'll be submitting your resume when Hine's job comes up.

 

[regpies]

SOS was not strong at GWS. Gubby is the one who went out and said pick the KPP's first over the mids as they can then be used as commodities for early draft picks. Granted they had the picks to do it, but he corrected SOS on his early predictions.

They weren't short on midfielders either. With all the picks they had they weren't short on anything, aside from ruck.

That was the one area thdy didn't seem interested in using any of their 30 first round picks on a genuine ruckman. They were quite lucky that Buddy went to the Swans forcing Mumford out. If Mumford was to have a career ending injury they would be in a bit of trouble.

 

[loki04]

Clearly you'll be submitting your resume when Hine's job comes up.

Think there is better people for the role personally even if I do get one right every now and then. Hines a good recruiter but i think he definitely got caught napping on this. He tends to reach for his tall's late in drafts or rookies not sure it's working to well for him.

 

[regpies]

In 2014 we didn't know we would be getting Treloar. We had just lost Beams and Cloke and Brown were playing good footy that looked like they would last another 4yrs and we were getting Darcy Moore. Certainly looked like we needed a midfielder to replace Beams over another tall in Wright.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

If Ed even has a seat at that table it would be the single biggest problem our club has faced in his 20 year tenure, IMO.

That's a bingo.

Simply no reason he needs to be anywhere near there.
None.

 

[jackcass]

Think there is better people for the role personally even if I do get one right every now and then. Hines a good recruiter but i think he definitely got caught napping on this. He tends to reach for his tall's late in drafts or rookies not sure it's working to well for him.

Happy to agree to disagree. The analysis has been done to death and in hindsight those KPP types haven't worked but there are ample examples of late pick KPP becoming very good footballers, the McDonald brothers at Melbourne both taken at 53, Michael Hartley at 68, Kaiden Brand at 66, Jeremy McGovern, Sam Frost, Kyle Hartigan all rookie picks. We had KPP players on the list, were in need of mids so that was the right call at that time. Add that we largely traded out of early rounds then all you're left with is those more speculative picks.

 

[PIEWITHSAUCE]

Happy to agree to disagree. The analysis has been done to death and in hindsight those KPP types haven't worked but there are ample examples of late pick KPP becoming very good footballers, the McDonald brothers at Melbourne both taken at 53, Michael Hartley at 68, Kaiden Brand at 66, Jeremy McGovern, Sam Frost, Kyle Hartigan all rookie picks. We had KPP players on the list, were in need of mids so that was the right call at that time. Add that we largely traded out of early rounds then all you're left with is those more speculative picks.

I believe they said on radio the other night that , Callum Mills aside , the whole Sydney back six is made up of rookies

 

[loki04]

Happy to agree to disagree. The analysis has been done to death and in hindsight those KPP types haven't worked but there are ample examples of late pick KPP becoming very good footballers, the McDonald brothers at Melbourne both taken at 53, Michael Hartley at 68, Kaiden Brand at 66, Jeremy McGovern, Sam Frost, Kyle Hartigan all rookie picks. We had KPP players on the list, were in need of mids so that was the right call at that time. Add that we largely traded out of early rounds then all you're left with is those more speculative picks.

Yea majority are KPD players that you listed and if you read through my other post on this subject you will notice I said KPD can be found late but generally not good KPFs.

 

[jackcass]

Yea majority are KPD players that you listed and if you read through my other post on this subject you will notice I said KPD can be found late but generally not good KPFs.

McGovern and Tom McDonald seem to do a fair impersonation of a KPF when needed.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Not sure about who the great recruiters are outside Graham Wright, but I just know Hine probably needs to go.

He's made some really really bad calls on Father/Sons pretty much the entire time he's been at Collingwood and too many of his "projects" simply haven't turned out.

It obviously doesn't help that our player development is amateur level at best.

 

[loki04]

McGovern and Tom McDonald seem to do a fair impersonation of a KPF when needed.

You can keep clinging to the ODD player who makes it forward compared to the weight of number taken low as KPF.

Remind me how many career goals those 2 have?

Mcdonald has looked ok since going forward but it is against the trend and normally the best ones are taken early.

You don't look at the odd one out and call it the norm...

 

[jackcass]

You can keep clinging to the ODD player who makes it forward compared to the weight of number taken low as KPF.

Remind me how many career goals those 2 have?

Mcdonald has looked ok since going forward but it is against the trend and normally the best ones are taken early.

You don't look at the odd one out and call it the norm...

Where have I said the best aren't taken early? Where have I said that late picks are anything other than speculative? Where have I suggested it's the norm? You're the only one making the definitive statements. All I've said is we had those KPP types (as previously listed) on our list and had to allow them time to develop, and the fact we had them makes trading/drafting mids the right thing to do.

 

[Justlokan]

SOS was not strong at GWS. Gubby is the one who went out and said pick the KPP's first over the mids as they can then be used as commodities for early draft picks. Granted they had the picks to do it, but he corrected SOS on his early predictions.

But this is exactly the point - they had a lot of draft picks. Without looking up the numbers, if GWS had 10 out of the top 20 picks in the first couple of years, it wouldn't be hard to find 3 or 4 elite players + another 3 or 4 very good ones. That's a fair nucleus to start with.
the rest of the league has to manage with 1 shot in the top 18 unless they happened to do some nifty trading.

 

[Maggie5]

Interesting comment by Worsfold on C7 footy show. Was asked about Tipungwuti and Worsfold stated he didn't know anything about him nor had he seen any video, leaves it to his recruiting department.
Might answer some questions I had re our recruiting. Still surprised coach doesn't have input.

 

[Quicky]

Interesting comment by Worsfold on C7 footy show. Was asked about Tipungwuti and Worsfold stated he didn't know anything about him nor had he seen any video, leaves it to his recruiting department.
Might answer some questions I had re our recruiting. Still surprised coach doesn't have input.

Nathan would help write the grocery list with the footy director and recruiters. The recruiters would then do the shopping.