DT 2011 Fixture Strategy

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Re: 2011 Fixture Strategy

I've assumed a BF group think team as follows to study the impact of byes in the first 11 rounds on teams. Number after player is the byes they have prior to Rd 11. Gives a solid indication of players who will be missing before factoring in injuries or players being dropped.


Backs

Goddard 4
Gibbs 8
Deledio 11
Gilbert 4
Otten 2
Houli 11
Adcock 4

Toy 1/9
Mzungu 6
Hunt 1/9


Mids

Swan 7
Boyd 4
Pendlebury 7
McLean 8
Foley 11
Swallow 1/9

Gaff 5
Wallis 4
Krakouer 7


Rucks

Sandilands 6
Jolly 7

Smith 1/9
Daw 3


Forwards

Volt 4
Chappy 6
Buddy 6
Pav 6
Knights 2
Petterd 5
Petrie 3

Matera 5
Lamb 5
Talia 2


Backs - Main issue is Rd 4 with Saints, Lions and Dogs having the bye. Rd 6, whilst not with many in this team , is also awkward with plenty of premiums from Hawks, Cats and Freo in defence. GC backs should be fine missing Rd 1 as you will no who is playing elsewhere to field a team.

Mids - Will need to dance carefully with the Pies premiums here, Rd 7 looks dangerous

Rucks - Looks OK but does throw up issues in the fwds if you are looking for Petrie as cover

Fwds - Rd 6 looks terrible. 3 down and if Mzungu and is listed as a fwd it could be 4 down. Plus Petrie DP to cover Sandilands is 5 down. Definite balancing act, DP links and team balance required here. Rd 5 also looks very skinny with 3 down before injuries etc.



The fixture is certainly something that has to be considered with so much more coverage needed this year. Donuts will be much more commonplace
 

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Re: 2011 Fixture Strategy

Collingwood have the bye in round 7. Not trying to be pendantic. Just making sure.

Do you think limiting the number of players from each team will play a bigger role this year? Last year I had about 7 Geelong players and it served me well.

But I can't imagine more than 2 from each side this year?
 
Re: 2011 Fixture Strategy

54Dogs said:
Fwds - Rd 6 looks terrible. 3 down and if Mzungu and / or Krak are listed as fwds it could be 5 down. Plus Petrie DP to cover Sandilands is 6 down. Definite balancing act, DP links and team balance required here. Rd 5 also looks very skinny with 3 down before injuries etc.
Click to expand...


I thought you meant krak would be missing round 6. That's all.:eek:
 
Re: 2011 Fixture Strategy

From memory the most any team debutted in round 1 last year was 2 at Melb with Scully and Trengove. Apart from GC there is no reason to believe any other club will debut any more than 2. Even with 2 under the sub rule it is likely that all rookies are strong candidates for half a game except at GC. I haven't looked to see what average TOG rookies have generally had in recent seasons but it would most likely be in the 65-75% range meaning less output from rookies in 2011. Food for thought as to whather the guns/rookies strategy which has been so successful in recent years will hold up in 2011.

I'll be trying to minimise starting rookies in the first few rounds until it emerges as to how the sub rule is being used.
 
Re: 2011 Fixture Strategy

This is no doubt a slight case of over thinking DT, but it is the off season, so that is what we do best.

The fixture is going to play a massive role in the overall winner in 2011, so they will need to strongly consider the bye rounds. Stealing some thoughts from another post from another thread, positional points average is going to be important.

Most upgrades happen in rounds 6-12, so you would prefer your target upgrade has had one or two of their byes completed by this point. This may be something to consider when you're 50/50 with a selection.

This is almost the Gary Ablett rule, you know by round 9 he can potentially play every week, hence gaining the most potential output. Not sure you will be able to upgrade players before round 6 which is the second main cluster bye round, but it will be interesting.

I'm thinking that two players from teams with byes in round 4 and 6 is the most you can afford to obtain from the start. I am also thinking that no matter what, you will need to have one DP link in your m/f or m/b.

Interesting times ahead for DT and the use of the byes.
 
Re: 2011 Fixture Strategy

Ollies said:
I'll be trying to minimise starting rookies in the first few rounds until it emerges as to how the sub rule is being used.
Click to expand...

You will either change your thoughts on this concept, or not have a high scoring team in 2011. I can see myself starting 4-6 rookies on the field in 2011. It is almost easily possible to start 3 in the mids, 1 in the forwards and backs. I could even mount a slight case for starting one in the rucks with Smith looking like a good option.
 
Re: 2011 Fixture Strategy

Tarquin said:
You will either change your thoughts on this concept, or not have a high scoring team in 2011. I can see myself starting 4-6 rookies on the field in 2011. It is almost easily possible to start 3 in the mids, 1 in the forwards and backs. I could even mount a slight case for starting one in the rucks with Smith looking like a good option.
Click to expand...

Tarqs, I do agree that there is value in starting rookies on the field and I think there is an argument that can be put forward for both the mid-pricer and rookie/gun approaches. However, I think you are being ambitous by saying that you will only have 2 players missing in each of round 4 and 6. I think with the right coverage we will be looking at more like 3 players missing in each of these cluster rounds.
 
Re: 2011 Fixture Strategy

Crows88 said:
However, I think you are being ambitous by saying that you will only have 2 players missing in each of round 4 and 6.
Click to expand...

Well I am not counting injuries, but I plan to only have two players with a bye in round 4 or 6 at the maximum. That gives me the ability to have a player spare on the bench, along with the use of the DP links to add some extra coverage.

I think it is a fair enough statement.
 
Re: 2011 Fixture Strategy

Tarquin said:
Well I am not counting injuries, but I plan to only have two players with a bye in round 4 or 6 at the maximum. That gives me the ability to have a player spare on the bench, along with the use of the DP links to add some extra coverage.

I think it is a fair enough statement.
Click to expand...

Two players per line yeah?

Crows88 said:
Tarqs, I do agree that there is value in starting rookies on the field and I think there is an argument that can be put forward for both the mid-pricer and rookie/gun approaches. However, I think you are being ambitous by saying that you will only have 2 players missing in each of round 4 and 6. I think with the right coverage we will be looking at more like 3 players missing in each of these cluster rounds.
Click to expand...

Three players across the lines yeah?
 

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Re: 2011 Fixture Strategy

Tarquin said:
You will either change your thoughts on this concept, or not have a high scoring team in 2011. I can see myself starting 4-6 rookies on the field in 2011. It is almost easily possible to start 3 in the mids, 1 in the forwards and backs. I could even mount a slight case for starting one in the rucks with Smith looking like a good option.
Click to expand...

I reckon you could get 2 in the backs as well. lots of good rookies around from the looks of things.
 
Re: 2011 Fixture Strategy

Walesy said:
I reckon you could get 2 in the backs as well. lots of good rookies around from the looks of things.
Click to expand...

I just made a quick planteam to see how it all looks and preferred having the extra rookie in the midfield over the backs. Still interesting times ahead, maybe two in the backs is an option.
 
Re: 2011 Fixture Strategy

Tarquin said:
You will either change your thoughts on this concept, or not have a high scoring team in 2011. I can see myself starting 4-6 rookies on the field in 2011. It is almost easily possible to start 3 in the mids, 1 in the forwards and backs. I could even mount a slight case for starting one in the rucks with Smith looking like a good option.
Click to expand...


Might bookmark this one. Tarqs are you sure you're Scottish and not Dutch 'cos the bolded certainly comes from their double dutch dialect.

I stand by the comment that I will try to minimise (I didn't say eliminate) the number of rookies starting on the field. I mean 2010 draft rookies. Guys like Foley and Harris while in a similar price bracket don't present the same risks. Its the 21st and 22nd spots getting half a game each that I think needs careful thought and an avoidance strategy .
 
Re: 2011 Fixture Strategy

at the moment i have 6 starting rookies and really cant see how they wont be good scorers

providing v.s are not arseholes and decide to make older rookies more expensive
 
Re: 2011 Fixture Strategy

Sorry tarqs I think I misunderstood you. I thought you meant 2 players missing the bye across round 4 and 6 from your overall team - not just per line!! Yeah I do agree that you can't have more than 2 players missing a game during the bye per line. You are correct - play on.... Dirty Irish/Scotsman... And I was wondering why you wear a kilt around the place everywhere... Easy access explains everything :)
 

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DT 2011 Fixture Strategy

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