Ellinbank Football League

[bigbadmal]

hey dustin.
The computer tips dont really become accurate until the middle of the season. For that reason i didnt start the program until round 3. Once all sides have played each other it will become more accurate. Assumptions that are made with the model are 1
1) That all home grounds have the same advantage
2) Teams play at the same level of ability always
3) That if team A beats team B by 50pts and team B beats team C by 30 points then team A will beat team C by 50+30=80pts.


Now all these assumptions are incorrect but for the purpose of keeping the model simple they are not factored in. The ratings are more or less a strength of schedule rating where a team will get more points for beating another team with a high rating and a team who loses to a lowly rated side will lose points.

 

[goal sneak]

Round 5 I'm on 19 so far.
Longwarry v Poowong - Got to go with the winning form. Should be a great match though.
Nyora v Lang Lang - We reckon that we can win this one. Kurt Batt is out but we have his little brother coming back in.
Kooweerup v Cora Lynn - Pfft, how many for sheen? 15???
Nar Nar Goon v Nilma Darnum - Nar Nar Goon at home. Is Cann in or out. Word is he did his groin badly. Either way i'm tipping the Goon.
Warragul Ind. v Neerim Sth - Neerim to go 4 and 1. Could they play finals?
Catani v Buln Buln - Bigbadmals computers favourite side should be able to win this one.
Bunyip v Ellinbank - Closer than what everyone predicts.

 

[Hoggwash]

Round 5
Longwarry v Poowong (play similar stlye, fit and kick it to space, hard for poowong to come up after last week)
Nyora v Lang Lang (by 12 goals)
Kooweerup v Cora Lynn (by at 15 goals)
Nar Nar Goon v Nilma Darnum (go alright at home, 3 goals)
Warragul Ind. v Neerim Sth (go fro an upset)
Catani v Buln Buln (buln are soft, catani easy)
Bunyip v Ellinbank (about 8 goals)

So your computer would count nyora as a win becasue they only lost by 3 points away from home. Is that how catani was on top after losing to nyora by 3 or 4 points.

 

[bigbadmal]

At this stage of the season home ground advantage is worth 18 points (average across first 4 rounds). So if an away side loses by less than 18 points it would be counted as a win. An example would be that NNG are rated 22 points higher than Nilma Darnum. Because the game is at NNG the predicted margin is 22+18=40pts. If the game was at Nilma Darnum the predicted margin would be 22-18=4pts in favour of NNG (a 36pt turnaround). The reason Catani are rated so highly is because the teams they beat(or got close to) have gone on and beaten other good sides and the teams they lost to have had good form as well.

 

[dustinmal]

Bigbadmal's computer program got 6 out of 7 round three
and 5 out of 7 round four
and it predicted that poowong would beat nyora

thats fairly accurate and probably better than most tipsters got
i only tipped 5 and 4 in those weeks

 

[bigpapagman]

i like the way you think dustin! thanks for the compliment.


cheers!!!

 

[dustinmal]

i like the way you think dustin! thanks for the compliment.
cheers!!!

No worries
How much chance do you give your boys against NNS, looks like the cats are better than everyone thought preseason (they havent beaten any top sides yet though)?
Its hard to tip the dusties after they were beaten by the darnos who in turn were easily beaten by NNS.
Who can replace the big papa in the forward half?

 

[bigpapagman]

well the forward half isn't the problem down there, we still have mike santo & daniel taylor to kick goals, its the delivery. If we can match NNS in the midfield; and with the return of Nathan Vanderplight & Dave Bracken this week, i think we can. I'm not saying we are going to win, but i think we will be alot better chance than people think. I'll be ******* by the end of the twos anyway!

 

[dustinmal]

you'll just have to watch what you say to the umps from the boundary after a few beers just in case they want to prolong your sentence a little more

 

[bigpapagman]

you'll just have to watch what you say to the umps from the boundary after a few beers just in case they want to prolong your sentence a little more

i dont think theres much they can do; especially if im on the other side of the fence!

Also note that Chris Urie isnt playing for neerim this week. Who's kicking it to wheels?

 

[dustinmal]

i dont think theres much they can do; especially if im on the other side of the fence!

Also note that Chris Urie isnt playing for neerim this week. Who's kicking it to wheels?

who knows someone must be getting it to him - i thought urie had put in a clearance to go back to NNS?

 

[bigpapagman]

who knows someone must be getting it to him - i thought urie had put in a clearance to go back to NNS?

yeah he has, but NNS is his feeder club. He only plays there when he doesnt get a game for Geelong VFL. And i heard he was going to play as they had a couple of injuries..... and i don't think anyone will be getting promoted for the sake of it after the ones effort on Sunday arvo.

cheers

 

[Falcor]

does michael mcmormick still play for the dusties?

 

[PeterDean]

does michael mcmormick still play for the dusties?

If he does - how does he go?

 

[bigpapagman]

does michael mcmormick still play for the dusties?

yeah macca still plays down here, goes not too bad, hard at it, decent skills, tries to do a bit too much at times, but one of our better midfielders i'd say!

cheers.

 

[goodie]

Chris urie is on an extended interchange for geelong VFL this week so may not play for NNS this week,

 

[gippslander]

him about 10 others

 

[bigbadmal]

Computer Ratings after Round 5


1) Nyora 160
2) Catani 157
3) Poowong 139
4) Bunyip 134
5) Longwarry 131
6) Neerim Sth 127
7) Cora Lynn 126
8) Buln Buln 100
9) Lang Lang 95
10) Nar Nar Goon 91
11) Ellinbank 79
12) Nilma Darnum 63
13) Warragul Ind. 55
14) Kooweerup 34


Round 6 Computer Tips -

Lang Lang v Longwarry 14pts
Cora Lynn v Nyora 12pts
Nilma Darnum v Kooweerup 51pts
Neerim Sth v Nar Nar Goon 58pts
Warragul Ind. v Ellinbank 2pts
Poowong v Catani 4pts
Buln Buln v Bunyip 12pts


How close is this round!
5 out of 7 games tipped with a margin of less than 14pts.

 

[goodie]

nilma darnum, disapointing this week.

does the nyora result stand? i heard it wasnt going to.

 

[archer]

chris urie playing for geelong against bendigo today

why wouldnt the nyora result stand, what happened something to do with the umpires again?
the edfl website has given them the points, they are 2nd on the ladder.

 

[goodie]

well that was just what i heard, could be BS though, i suppose we will here more in the days to come.

 

[dustinmal]

Nyora 32.21 (213) v Lang Lang 8.9 (57)

Lang Lang must have played like their afl counterparts,
If the result stands, hard to see the tigers making finals this year, what happened goalsneak?

 

[archer]

nilma darnum, disapointing this week.

poor old nilma, what will they write to the league about this week, they've already blamed the umpires and complained about 3 players on the bench not being enough. i spose the coach has to do something for his money

 

[goodie]

injurys again hit us hard, we lost a player in the first 10 minutes and an other one soon after 1/2 time, then the third one early in the last, one player played injured for a fair bit of game time.

 

[goodie]

also, wheelan only kicked one, poor delivery into the forward line = no C.urie?