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AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Toast Esava
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David the Cat
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Yes..I suspect in the 20's..I'd prefer him to remain and given he has Scott in his corner I think that is the likely outcome.
His 22 goals against direct opponents (I haven't been counting if he is lined up on someone 50m up the field and Riewoldt scores a goal on Stewart...just as a heads up) this year hasn't been that bad. Not for a rookie defender. It could well tighten up as the year goes on and we have something closer to our best defence. It's only bad if he doesn't offer his intercepting game and getting on the end of spoils/neutralising plenty of contests.
Age wise sure he's 25 and his first stint as a forward/ruck was a failure. But he could still be a solution for 7 more years, which will carry him through Kolo etc careers and a lot of J.Henry/SDKs.
As for the bolded, Sav will occasionally get done on the lead if isolated deep but in reality a lot of these kicks can't be stopped and every full back concedes most of their goals this way. His 1v1 contested ability is his most underrated feature and will improve. He's lost 7 of his 26 defensive 1v1s (26.9%) which has him a tiny bit ahead of the outstanding Callum Wilkie. De Koning has lost 25% but has only faced 10. Allir, Jonas, Barrass, Balta, Pearce, Petty, May, Laverde, Zerk-Thatcher, McKay, Kolo, Bruce, McKenzie, Howard and Battle are all losing a higher proportion of defensive 1v1 battles than Ratugolea. I'm not sure if any of them intercept mark anything close to Esava either. He's not too far off some of the elite % wise for this. So plenty to work with.
You don't throw away that skill set when his ceiling remains a lot higher still. Your IF isn't realistic despite the above. I'd rather discuss what we are likely to get offered and would rightly refuse. Otherwise we might as well say a team will offer the number 1 pick and it only serves as a means to say "well sure we'll get rid of him" but it's a pointless discussion.
Interesting stats. Thanks for that.
I guess we're also failing to consider his personal decision, which at the end of last season was already made up to leave and pursue his career at another club.
I'd like to think that Geelong has become his kind of cultural home and that now that he's earning more first-team action this year, he'd be strongly considering staying. But who knows? It's not unheard of for good first-team players to decide to leave powerful well-run clubs to pursue opportunities elsewhere.
If he does decide to go, I don't think the club gets much by way of compensation.
He'll only decide to leave if they say they're not sure there's a spot in the 22 for him or they've received an offer too good to refuse.
Neither will happen so he'll be a Cat next year and beyond.
Hope you're right!
catempire
Premium Platinum
As teams now like to put work into Stewart we are fortunate to have Ratugolea providing that alternative aerial threat. He does that better than J Henry, SDK or Kolo. The downside is he doesn’t defend as well as them. So it will be fascinating how they select the side. Maybe for matchups? I think we will see a fair bit of J Henry and SDK played elsewhere.
With O Henry and Rohan out. J Henry will be playing forward line this week. That we can bank on I reckon.
catempire
Premium Platinum
Yep. One step at a time!
- Sep 26, 2017
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Imagine if he kicks a bag and how much shit he will give to his brother lol
How does everyone see our best 22 backline and how Esava fits into that?
Talls: SDK, Esava, Henry, Kolo
Mediums Stewart Zuthrie, Bowes, Duncan
Smalls: Bews, O'Connor, Tuohy
Really hard to select as great back 6 that is balanced
Talls: SDK, Esava, Henry, Kolo
Mediums Stewart Zuthrie, Bowes, Duncan
Smalls: Bews, O'Connor, Tuohy
Really hard to select as great back 6 that is balanced
Hard to say, because while it looks good on paper it's been unsettled by injuries and various players out of form.
Talls don't seem to be the problem right now - all 4 of those are solid. Kolo hasn't replicated his 2022 form, but hasn't been that bad (certain cross-field kicks notwithstanding).
Feels like Bews is badly out of form and Tuohy might be carrying something, so the smalls seems to be a more urgent need. Maybe once Tuohy hangs up the boots and/or Bews gives it up, Kolo moves into that role (they have used him in that way before).
I still think having Esava and SDK in the same team is handy, because it frees Henry up to be more of a utility player. 2 years ago he couldn't be spared from the backline - now we could potentially push him up to a wing, pinch-hit in the ruck or be less reluctant to stick him in the F50.
catempire
Premium Platinum
It’s admirable what he’s done but he will be squeezed out if everyone is available.
If Bews has lost half a yard of his pace, confidence and stopping power it doesn't really matter that he is a "small". Likewise for Tuohy he can in no way guard a small forward right now.
You would potentially play SDK and Ratugolea as the key defenders, J.Henry third tall, Kolo and Stewart as mediums and then O'Connor and Zuthrie as the smalls. With Holmes required more in midfield, Duncan and Bowes may end up more on the wings.
Let's say there are 6 spots in defence, 2 on the wings and then likely 2 on the bench who rotate through both. Exclude Holmes as a hybrid winger/midfielder. That leaves 10 players.
SDK, Kolo, Stewart, J.Henry, O'Connor, Zuthrie, Smith and Duncan are "musts" for team balance, attributes and players I can't see Scott excluding. O'Connor and Zuthrie due to the variable form of Tuohy and Bews. Although I would say Zuthrie has dropped off too, they will surely back him in.
That leaves 2 spots between Ratugolea, Bews, Tuohy and Bowes. I'd say you pick one of the latter two as the skilful rebounder who can also play wing/half forward. Then pick your poison between a tall athletic interceptor and a small stopper. Coaches tend to stick with their trusted generals, even a little longer than they should, but unlike others I don't think the MC right now are thinking "drop Esava when everyone is available, easy peasy". Especially when they've played so many tall defenders for so long and have never really alluded to regretting that philosophy. The set of talls we have right now are more mobile than the 4 we've played in other seasons.
I can't see how Kolo, Henry, SDK and Esava all play in the same team. I think once everyone is back he will be playing VFL. A real shame but he has at least managed to salvage his career
Mattttty
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It'll be interesting to see what they do there. Henry has been increasingly used as a forward so if they keep doing that, there's room for all of them.
Vdubs
Hall of Famer
JH can and will play forward and on the ball.
Sav will keep his spot until CS does a Dimma
I’m getting the strong impression that the club has said to Esava that j Henry will play forward meaning there is a clear spot for him in defence.
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I think Sav's been better and/or more useful in the back line than Kolo this year.
That said, if Kolo finds his 2022 form, then Sav is probably the unlucky one out if SDK is in.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
If he receives an offer too good to say no to he might well go hes ooc this time and we cant do much about it
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
That only works until ollie is back because you cant drop ollie and you cant play both henrys fwd.
I'm only going off the complete contentedness of the match committee to play 4 slower tall defenders together than the ones we have now. Especially when one will probably be used as a swing forward in games.
Our tallest (slowest? Probably not without Tuohy to be honest) possible backline:
FB: O'Connor** Ratugolea J.Henry*
HB: Kolo De Koning Stewart
IC: Z.Guthrie Duncan**
*swing forward
**wing/mids rotation
So let's say 3 of the 8 will be sharing duties across the field
In 2017 we had:
FB: Bews Lonergan Henderson
HB: Stewart Taylor Kolo
IC: Tuohy** Mackie**
I'm interested to hear thoughts on whether the 2023 version would have less speed, agility and athleticism than the one in 2017. If not, why wouldn't form and current ability be used as the main criteria rather than height alone? When Tuohy has lost two yards of speed anyway, and Bews one?
FB: O'Connor** Ratugolea J.Henry*
HB: Kolo De Koning Stewart
IC: Z.Guthrie Duncan**
*swing forward
**wing/mids rotation
So let's say 3 of the 8 will be sharing duties across the field
In 2017 we had:
FB: Bews Lonergan Henderson
HB: Stewart Taylor Kolo
IC: Tuohy** Mackie**
I'm interested to hear thoughts on whether the 2023 version would have less speed, agility and athleticism than the one in 2017. If not, why wouldn't form and current ability be used as the main criteria rather than height alone? When Tuohy has lost two yards of speed anyway, and Bews one?
2020 back line:
FB: Bews Henderson J.Henry
HB: Kolo Taylor Stewart
IC: Tuohy O'Connor
The match committee simply will not select 4 tall defenders in the side. They have done it every year it was possible, but this time it will be different.
Now I'm actually pretty 50/50 on whether they'd do it. It's very possible they go another direction. It's merely the finality and definitiveness of people that strikes me as odd. On exposed evidence, it's an option they wouldn't dismiss out of hand.
They won't pick a similar line up to above except for replacing the older, slower Taylor + Lonergan for the more athletic and speedy SDK + Sav? Based on...too tall? Too slow? Let me see the logic.
FB: Bews Henderson J.Henry
HB: Kolo Taylor Stewart
IC: Tuohy O'Connor
The match committee simply will not select 4 tall defenders in the side. They have done it every year it was possible, but this time it will be different.
Now I'm actually pretty 50/50 on whether they'd do it. It's very possible they go another direction. It's merely the finality and definitiveness of people that strikes me as odd. On exposed evidence, it's an option they wouldn't dismiss out of hand.
They won't pick a similar line up to above except for replacing the older, slower Taylor + Lonergan for the more athletic and speedy SDK + Sav? Based on...too tall? Too slow? Let me see the logic.
