Expectations and predictions for 2018

[youmewe]

On this board, you get a prize for being the first to judge a player.


Apparently.

That Jack Pavlich is a dud.

 

[theGav56]

That Jack Pavlich is a dud.

Done nothing, terrible skinfolds, and undersized for a KPF.

 

[youmewe]

Done nothing, terrible skinfolds, and undersized for a KPF.

Absolutely.

Height: Barely 2 foot 6.
Skills: Can't kick 10m.
Vertical leap: Virtually no-existent.
2km time trial: Has to have a two hour nap midway through.
Other: Cries out for his mummy everytime Sandi pulls a face.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Johnson, Ballas, Sandi, Mundy, Spurr, D Pearce, Johnson will show there age and will provide a lesser output this year.

Sheriden, Sutcliffe, Grey are not good enough to be best 22 and will dominate WAFL but disappoint when they play AFL. (Yes I know other people rate Grey, but his Skills are not good enough).

Bennell, Apeness will injured for most of the year and won't play 5 games of AFL between them.

At least 8 of the 11 players above will be delisted at the end of the year.

We will miss finals, but we will play finals in 2019.



Dixon will finish the year as our number 1 target, after Taberner plays the first 6 games for 6 goals (5 against Brisbane in 1 game).

 

[theGav56]

Ballantyne wouldn't be locked into my best 22 either but I am fairly sure he's in Ross Lyon's best 22.

It doesn't matter either way. Ballantyne's replacements have arrived, and his use by date is approaching. We're just pissing around the edges even discussing this kind of thing. There is a very clear direction for where the club is heading, and it isn't dependent on how many games Ballantyne or Johnson get in 2018.

Just like with any other team, I expect the veterans (Bar Pearce) to play every game unless they're injured.

As much as everyone talks about rebuilding, no club goes into round 1 expecting not to make finals. It's a defeatist attitude and despite what everyone says, coaches are rated on their win/loss record and they aren't going to leave out quality veterans to play kids unless specifically directed to do so.

We wouldn't have offered Ballantyne a contract if we planned on playing him in the reserves. He'll play if he's fit. Same goes for Spurr.

Comments like this reflect such a short term vision and lack any insight into how teams are managed. GWS surely didn't expect Mzungu and deBoer to play every game. There are multiple reasons to have experienced players on your list. We never expected Griffin to play every game he was available, nor Sylvagni. We certainly didn't expect Pavlich to play every game in his final year whether he was fit or missing a leg, and Ottens was famously "managed" through seasons.

I highly doubt if clubs go into round 1 expecting to make finals. It just is not the way they work. They would be focused on round 1, and would barely crack a thought about possible finals. Finals are the outcome of a process, and teams focus on the process. The coach develops that process and knows that if they get the steps done correctly, then finals will come into play.

You set up the fitness excuse for the possibility that Ballantyne/Spurr/etc don't play, but the reality is that if they don't get chosen we are told he "had a niggle" or a "minor strain" or "pulled up sore after training" etc. These fitness issues can be genuine, but are primarily designed to prevent the coach having to answer tricky non-selection questions, and to allow the club to not require an ageing star to go back to the wafl. Ballantyne and Johnson especially are in the stages of their careers where they retire mid-season because the replacements are cruising past them.

In fact veterans actually be an asset on a list because they are unlikely to play every game, which allows a club to manage the development of their replacements game opportunities. This helps provide some stability for the young players and reduces pressure on them to perform. That pressure is absorbed by the veterans. We are seeing that right now. I don't expect any of Sandilands, MJ or Ballantyne to get through a year fully fit.

 

[ydraw]

It doesn't matter either way. Ballantyne's replacements have arrived, and his use by date is approaching. We're just pissing around the edges even discussing this kind of thing. There is a very clear direction for where the club is heading, and it isn't dependent on how many games Ballantyne or Johnson get in 2018.

Comments like this reflect such a short term vision and lack any insight into how teams are managed. GWS surely didn't expect Mzungu and deBoer to play every game. There are multiple reasons to have experienced players on your list. We never expected Griffin to play every game he was available, nor Sylvagni.

These guys are all fringe players who never cemented a spot in the side. Of course they aren't expected to play every game. They were recruited as depth. It's a hugely different situation than talking about club legend veterans who've played 200+ games. You don't keep those guys on then play them in the reserves. If we didn't plan to play them they would have been politely asked to retire rather than keeping them on.

We certainly didn't expect Pavlich to play every game in his final year whether he was fit or missing a leg, and Ottens was famously "managed" through seasons.

Playing every game when fit is different than playing every game. Come on. Every player has injuries. No, we probably don't expect Sandilands to play all 22 games. He might miss a couple. But we sure as shit aren't going to leave him out of the team when he's fit. Because he's still the best ruckman in the competition.

Pavlich only missed 4 games in his final season despite carrying significant injuries. Yet you're suggesting we're going to play these guys for only half a season.

Comments like this reflect such a short term vision and lack any insight into how teams are managed.

My comments reflect reality, whether I agree with it or not (FWIW I don't think Ballantyne or Spurr should play at all this year. But they will). Your comments reflect a fantasy that exists only in your head. I'd really love it if you were right and we were actually going into the season with an actual rebuild. But nobody goes into a season like that. Every club rates themselves a chance of making finals, even when rebuilding.

Our team round 1 will be whatever team we think gives us the best chance of winning. If we get pumped again in the first couple of rounds like last year then sure, we'll probably look at dropping guys like Spurr to give some young blokes a run. But that won't be happening if we're 3-2 after 5 rounds or so.

 

[tonygeeks]

This kid is only 19 and only played one season so I think we should give him time before we judge him.

Too right ! Anyone want to come up with a list of 19 year old KPP's who did a better job the Cox last year playing CHF in a struggling side with suspect ball movement and knobs like Crozier trying to take mark of the year every time it got bombed in be my guest
Eric Hipwood
And umm
Well


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[freoextra]

Just like with any other team, I expect the veterans (Bar Pearce) to play every game unless they're injured.

As much as everyone talks about rebuilding, no club goes into round 1 expecting not to make finals. It's a defeatist attitude and despite what everyone says, coaches are rated on their win/loss record and they aren't going to leave out quality veterans to play kids unless specifically directed to do so.

We wouldn't have offered Ballantyne a contract if we planned on playing him in the reserves. He'll play if he's fit. Same goes for Spurr.

I agree, I expect an experienced team in the first round with only Brayshaw to debut (slight chance of Cerra but probably not due to shoulder and slow build to preseason). Only experienced players to definitely miss out would be D Pearce and C Suttcliffe.

I fully expect to see Ballas, Johnson and Spurr (especially if picked in leadership group) to run out round one. I also don't have anything against them being selected and staying if they perform.

 

[DudleyDocker]

Sheriden, Sutcliffe, Grey are not good enough to be best 22 and will dominate WAFL but disappoint when they play AFL. (Yes I know other people rate Grey, but his Skills are not good enough).

I am going to quote this back at you later in the year when Grey smashes all comers. Toughness is a quality we don't have a great supply of and Brady has that in spades.

 

[dockerfemme]

Too right ! Anyone want to come up with a list of 19 year old KPP's who did a better job the Cox last year playing CHF in a struggling side with suspect ball movement and knobs like Crozier trying to take mark of the year every time it got bombed in be my guest
Eric Hipwood
And umm
Well


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He was only 18 for most of his first year and his stats stack up really well against Hipwood's first year.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...&pid1=6366&pid2=4174&fid1=S&fid2=P&fopt2=2016

 

[tonygeeks]

He was only 18 for most of his first year and his stats stack up really well against Hipwood's first year.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...&pid1=6366&pid2=4174&fid1=S&fid2=P&fopt2=2016

There you go then better than Hipwood haha I was surprised to see so many people talking him down in this thread while everyone seems to think the sun shines out of Louges *ss when he was playing one of the easiest positions on the field and Cox one of the hardest


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[dockerfemme]

There you go then better than Hipwood haha I was surprised to see so many people talking him down in this thread while everyone seems to think the sun shines out of Louges *ss when he was playing one of the easiest positions on the field and Cox one of the hardest


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If he had kicked well at goal it would have been an excellent debut year. I was quite impressed by him.

 

[tonygeeks]

I would love to see this forward line at some stage this year

Apeness. McCarthy. Matera

Bennell. Cox. Grey


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[ydraw]

I agree, I expect an experienced team in the first round with only Brayshaw to debut (slight chance of Cerra but probably not due to shoulder and slow build to preseason). Only experienced players to definitely miss out would be D Pearce and C Suttcliffe.

I really don't expect any debutants unless we have a lot of injuries. For Brayshaw to debut round 1 would mean he's got his nose in front of guys like Tucker, Hughes and Langdon.

 

[BigKep]

There you go then better than Hipwood haha I was surprised to see so many people talking him down in this thread while everyone seems to think the sun shines out of Louges *ss when he was playing one of the easiest positions on the field and Cox one of the hardest


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Agreed. I see a very bright future for Cox with the way he reads the play and his marking is exceptional too. I don't see what everyone else sees in Logue but I remain hopeful he'll forge a long career too.

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[theGav56]

These guys are all fringe players who never cemented a spot in the side. Of course they aren't expected to play every game. They were recruited as depth. It's a hugely different situation than talking about club legend veterans who've played 200+ games. You don't keep those guys on then play them in the reserves. If we didn't plan to play them they would have been politely asked to retire rather than keeping them on.

This is NOT what you posted and not what I replied to. You are now qualifying your argument because your original statement was wrong. You talked about the veterans in every team, and I listed a raft of examples where this is incorrect. And you are now claiming these two as fringe players when in reality they were pretty much best 22. Either way, your argument (at the time) was that if you have veterans on your list then you play them (apart from Pearce).

And, by the way, I think Ballantyne (and to a lesser extent MJ) were kept as depth, especially given that his replacement (Matera) has had injury issues. He certainly wasn't kept on to build the forward line around.

Playing every game when fit is different than playing every game. Come on. Every player has injuries. No, we probably don't expect Sandilands to play all 22 games. He might miss a couple. But we sure as shit aren't going to leave him out of the team when he's fit. Because he's still the best ruckman in the competition.

Pavlich only missed 4 games in his final season despite carrying significant injuries. Yet you're suggesting we're going to play these guys for only half a season.

Again you are modifying your argument. Pavlich missed games that in other seasons he would not have missed because, like many veterans, he was managed. Your entire post assumes that you know about these players actual injuries which you do not.

The other thing you do to modify your argument is make claims that I have suggested these guys will only play half a season. I just don't agree that being fit is the only criteria that will be used to determine if they play.

My comments reflect reality, whether I agree with it or not (FWIW I don't think Ballantyne or Spurr should play at all this year. But they will). Your comments reflect a fantasy that exists only in your head. I'd really love it if you were right and we were actually going into the season with an actual rebuild. But nobody goes into a season like that. Every club rates themselves a chance of making finals, even when rebuilding.

Our team round 1 will be whatever team we think gives us the best chance of winning. If we get pumped again in the first couple of rounds like last year then sure, we'll probably look at dropping guys like Spurr to give some young blokes a run. But that won't be happening if we're 3-2 after 5 rounds or so.

I don't have expectations or limits on what those guys will do, but I do know that the team is in a rebuild/transition stage, and that that is where the focus will be. The possibility of playing finals is part of that, but it won't be the focus as you originally claimed.

Nice backflip on Spurr I note. Minutes ago he was a veteran certain to play every game he is available for.

 

[tonygeeks]

Agreed. I see a very bright future for Cox with the way he reads the play and his marking is exceptional too. I don't see what everyone else sees in Logue but I remain hopeful he'll forge a long career too.

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Sure , Louge could be an excellent player for us but any comparisons you want to make with Cox should factor in how hard it is to play CHF in the AFL


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[theGav56]

I agree, I expect an experienced team in the first round with only Brayshaw to debut (slight chance of Cerra but probably not due to shoulder and slow build to preseason). Only experienced players to definitely miss out would be D Pearce and C Suttcliffe.

I fully expect to see Ballas, Johnson and Spurr (especially if picked in leadership group) to run out round one. I also don't have anything against them being selected and staying if they perform.

An experienced team? Are you thinking no Logue or Darcy? Cox, Ryan no chance? Blakely going to have to earn his stripes in the wafl?

I think because of the number of new players we have seen that we have become a bit blinkered about how many new players we have running around. I agree with you that Brayshaw looms as the only potential debutant, but prefer him to be held back for 5 or so games.

Plus the fact that we will also have significant personnel changes in Wilson and Matera.

 

[tonygeeks]

Can't ever recall a team doing this before but I wonder how it would work out if we picked an experienced side for home games and a young side away

Home - Sandi , Mundy , Ballas and Johno etc

Away - Darcy , Bradshaw , Cerra etc

Nurses the older guys a bit and keeps the younger guys fresh while getting them used to the rigours of our travel demands


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[ydraw]

Again you are modifying your argument. Pavlich missed games that in other seasons he would not have missed because, like many veterans, he was managed.

If we were in finals contention he would have played. The points were meaningless so the team we picked was also meaningless.

That could definitely happen again if this season looks like being another basket case. But it certainly won't be happening if we're winning and a chance at making finals.

I fully expect all of Ballantyne, Spurr, Sandilands and Johnson to play round 1, and to keep playing if we're competitive. If we start getting flogged every week then we'll go back to the "rebuild".

 

[theGav56]

Just like with any other team, I expect the veterans (Bar Pearce) to play every game unless they're injured.

As much as everyone talks about rebuilding, no club goes into round 1 expecting not to make finals. It's a defeatist attitude and despite what everyone says, coaches are rated on their win/loss record and they aren't going to leave out quality veterans to play kids unless specifically directed to do so.

We wouldn't have offered Ballantyne a contract if we planned on playing him in the reserves. He'll play if he's fit. Same goes for Spurr.

nek minit

If we were in finals contention he would have played. The points were meaningless so the team we picked was also meaningless.

That could definitely happen again if this season looks like being another basket case. But it certainly won't be happening if we're winning and a chance at making finals.

I fully expect all of Ballantyne, Spurr, Sandilands and Johnson to play round 1, and to keep playing if we're competitive. If we start getting flogged every week then we'll go back to the "rebuild".

Playing the so-called veterans in round 1 is not inconsistent with being in rebuild mode. The rebuild goes over several seasons. The rebuild includes surrounding the new players with some old heads to provide leadership and on-field stability.

We need to solidify our backline, especially given that it will feature Wilson and A Pearce as two brand new players. In addition there has been a very clear focus in our drafting on being more attacking from the backline, but so far this is at best a work in progress. MJ and Spurr can help facilitate this, and are a key to turning Ryan and Logue into weapons for us.

No point sending Darcy out there to get beaten up every game. Sandilands can show him how it is done better than anyone on the planet.

Ballantyne has already begun his transition into a mentoring role with his work with Cox's kicking. But the writing is on the wall for him, and he won't be preferred to Matera, and I personally doubt that he sees out the year, but who knows.

 

[ydraw]

Ballantyne has already begun his transition into a mentoring role with his work with Cox's kicking. But the writing is on the wall for him, and he won't be preferred to Matera, and I personally doubt that he sees out the year, but who knows.

He'll see out the year if we're in contention no doubt. If he does another hammy he's done. If we get pumped and start tanking he could well retire mid season.

 

[BStaff17]

I would like us to improve on the 8 wins from last year and percantage as well.

And to turn the new stadium into a fortress important to lay down an early marker and make it hard for teams again to go over to perth and win

 

[Scham]

Can't ever recall a team doing this before but I wonder how it would work out if we picked an experienced side for home games and a young side away

Home - Sandi , Mundy , Ballas and Johno etc

Away - Darcy , Bradshaw , Cerra etc

Nurses the older guys a bit and keeps the younger guys fresh while getting them used to the rigours of our travel demands


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Neesham was the only one that used somewhat of a "horses for courses" approach to selection in regards to home and away from memory.

 

[theGav56]

He'll see out the year if we're in contention no doubt. If he does another hammy he's done. If we get pumped and start tanking he could well retire mid season.

Yes. Pretty unrealistic that we will be in contention though, and we certainly wouldn't be depending on Ballantyne. But you would want every player available in those circumstances.