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Rendered Unsafe said:
If we win all those, we would be finals bound right?
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We would need other teams namely Freo who other than us have the easiest run home to lose games as we win at best if we won every home game and beat the teams beneath us we could make finals depending on results of Freo, Saints, Tigers, Nth, Cats and Blues.

If we were to make to make finals this season it is actually very possible as we play a couple of the opposition (not Freo Cats and Nth) we need to lose, us and Freo have the best possible runs from here to the seasons end with most of the other clubs playing top six opposition or each other.

So in summation it's completely up to us if we wanted it enough it could be ours to have but unfortunately I don't expect that much from us at the moment so don't get your hopes up.
 
Last night on AFL360, they ran through the clubs who still had a shot at making the finals - and it included us. Now, they then went on to virtually not mention us and instead focus on what went wrong with the Dogs but ignoring that, it was nice to be half way through the season and still be thought of as a rough finals chance. That shows progress considering how abysmal we were for the first half of last year. I'm one who thinks finals are an absolute pipe dream - winning 7 or 8 more games is beyond comprehension. But it is nice to be thereabouts.

One interesting thing I noted was how many of the sides in the 7-14 range had favourable draws for the rest of the year. Richmond have 7 games against clubs below them on the ladder. The only struggler side they don't play is GWS. Freo have a great run home - lots of home games and winnable away games. North have had a great draw all year although it isn't a perfect run in. St Kilda's isn't awful - they play 5 sides below them on the ladder and so would probably need to pick a win or two up against a top 8 side to make it. Carlton's run includes 4 games against quality opposition but every other game is totally winnable - again, knock off a side or two above them and they make the finals comfortably.

Geelong's run home is terrible - they play Collingwood, Essendon, Adelaide, Hawthorn, WCE and St Kilda in a 6 week block. Only the Adelaide game is at Kardinia Park and the WCE game is at Subi. They then finish with Sydney, albeit at home. But they don't give up wins lightly.

If I had to put money on it, I think I'd have Richmond and either Geelong or Carlton making up the 8.
 
This article by Greg Davis today is pretty interesting. He writes about the change in perception of the Lions over the last 3 months across the league and in the media. He mentions that today is a tough match, but he also points out that we have some winnable matches coming up, and categorises our last rounds into difficult matches, should-win matches and 50-50 matches, with best and worse case scenarios for a win-loss record this year. His worst case scenario is still pretty good.

BRISBANE'S RUN HOME
Rd 15: Sydney (SCG)
Rd 16: St Kilda (Gabba)
Rd 17: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)
Rd 18: West Coast (Patersons Stadium)
Rd 19: Richmond (Gabba)
Rd 20: Carlton (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 21: Adelaide (Gabba)
Rd 22: Port Adelaide (AAMI Stadium)
Rd 23: Western Bulldogs (Gabba)
Three likely wins: Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs
Three likely losses: Sydney, West Coast, Adelaide
Three "50-50" games: St Kilda, Richmond, Carlton
Best-case scenario: 12 wins - 10 losses
Worst-case scenario: 9 wins - 13 losses
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It's funny because after a few good wins and a competitive first half against hawthorn, we are now probably being overrated by the media. Jono Brown was on 1116 SEN the other day and KB asked him if he thinks finals are a chance this year, and he said no. He said that this year was about developing the kids etc which I think is a realistic summary.
 
Grimreepah said:
Adelaide at home is a 50/50 game imo (based on current form).
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True....but if north get up today it will make it very hard for anyone else to break into the 8
 
If the Carlton game was at the Gabba, I'd say we're right in with a shot. But at Etihad, I'm not so sure. I hope they win as i'm a Vic fan and only get to go to a few games a year
 
We won 4 games last year. Personally, winning 8 to 10 matches this year, would be a great improvement. Sure, Gold Coast and GWS are weak, but lets remember every club plays them at least once too. And Gold Coast did beat us once last year.

However, I firmly believe a finals appearance is attainable next year, with natural improvement, no likely significant losses and smart recruiting. But, the next 8 weeks are crucial- we need to make sure the following players, either reach at least 20 games and players already at this figure to keep adding games:

Golby
Bewick
McKeever
Cornelius
Green
Harwood
Karnezis
Lester
Polec
Obrien
** Zorko and Beams will hopefully reach 14 or 15 games by end of year.

Critically, the above players, prior to the start of 2013, will have had a minimum 3 pre seasons under their belts (Zorko the exception but a mature age recruit) and a reasnable number of games. Ideally, the'yd be around 40 games, but hopefully, the can improve enough along with continued improvement from Rockliff, Redden, Rich, , Hanley, Leuenberger, Banfield and Polkinghorne to propel us into the 8.

Billy Longer already a man mountain will benefit from another pre season and a few more matches this year too and strengthen our ruck depth for 2013. Jordan Lisle should feature soon given his form in the NEAFL.

Brent Staker, will also be like a new recruit.

Hopefully, we can also unearth another mature age recruit through the draft or our rookie list who can have an impact in 2013. Docherty and Bartlett should also push for games next year and hopefully feature this year.
 

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IanHaso84 said:
Staker back in the team next year will add so much to the playing group. We will fully understand how much we have missed him upon his return.
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I can just imagine the effect all that drool from the Staker fans will have on the playing surface lol.

It'll be good to have another experienced body back in defence.
 
For those interested in precedents.

Since the introduction of the final 8, Brisbane 2012 is the 27th team to be on 6 wins and 8 losses after 14 matches.

Of the other 26, three made the finals.
Essendon in 1998 with 12 wins 10 losses.
Brisbane in 2000 with 12 wins 10 losses.
West Coast in 2004 with 13 wins and 9 losses.

Essendon's opponents in their last 8 matches the time of each match were placed 9,4,2,14,13,12,2 and 12 on the ladder.
Brisbane's opponents in their last 8 matches at the time of each match were placed 5,2,6,10,15,9,16 and 12 on the ladder.
West Coast's opponents in their last 8 matches at the time of each match were placed 16,6,3,14,2,12,6 and 5 on the ladder.
 
Grimreepah said:
Adelaide at home is a 50/50 game imo (based on current form).
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That was my view when I did an assessment before game 1 and came up with 8 wins for the season,then I put it into the too hard basket but in the light of Adelaide's recent form it is a winnable game if our injury situation doesn't cruel it.
 
IanHaso84 said:
Staker back in the team next year will add so much to the playing group. We will fully understand how much we have missed him upon his return.
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I'm just concerned about how long it will get him back up to pace. If the complete recovery from a knee reco can actually be more like 2 years (to return to full fitness), then we might need to have a bit more patience in Stakes to return to his best form.

Wouldn't it be great if he has to spend some time in the reserves because our young blokes step up?!
 
POBT said:
I'm just concerned about how long it will get him back up to pace. If the complete recovery from a knee reco can actually be more like 2 years (to return to full fitness), then we might need to have a bit more patience in Stakes to return to his best form.

Wouldn't it be great if he has to spend some time in the reserves because our young blokes step up?!
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That would be good. Our younger mid-type players seem to be stepping up a bit more quickly than the talls, though.

If Stakes is able to participate in a full preseason with the rest of the boys, would it be reasonable to say that his fitness could be bumped up more quickly than if he was returning mid-season? There is not a lot of information around on whether or not Stakes will be able to participate in the pre-season training with the main group.
 
IanHaso84 said:
If Stakes is able to participate in a full preseason with the rest of the boys, would it be reasonable to say that his fitness could be bumped up more quickly than if he was returning mid-season? There is not a lot of information around on whether or not Stakes will be able to participate in the pre-season training with the main group.
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Given his surgery was delayed, I'm not sure when his return to full duties will occur.

In terms of recovery, each player is different. I probably overstated in my first post - it is possible for players to return to full form on the back of one year post-surgery. I mean, Braddy kicked 75 goals the year following his ACL rupture. But it does seem like an awful lot of players take a year of footy before they return to their absolute best. Lenny Hayes is an example - he is still playing bloody good football but he's not quite at the standard he was at in 2010. If Lenny is an elite player playing at the "very good" level, it may be that Staker, as a very good player, might only be able to contribute as a good-average footballer.

Staker relies a lot on athleticism and movement. He needs that back to play the same sort of role he did in the past. If that doesn't return, I guess the question is whether he is still a better option than McKeever/Karnezis/Cornelius etc or whether he can change his role to adapt to the after-effects of his injury.

I guess when I look at our list, I've kind of gone beyond factoring Stakes in as a significant part of our plans for 2013. I hope he proves me wrong but the fact is that we're now getting games into guys who play the role that Stakes played for us - both forward and back. Part of me would be a bit disappointed if our young blokes weren't able to keep him out of the best 22. Don't get me wrong - the young guys haven't yet played the sort of footy that made Staker a valuable commodity for us. But they should be aiming to play at that level or beyond.
 

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