Finals: yeah or nah?

[BF Tiger]

Just need to keep winning.

 

[Truetiger]

ok my assumptions are doing alot of heavy lifting. I assume we are atleast better than the dogs/stkilda.

Based on form i have us making it by a bee's dick. Though all it takes is Gee's or Essendon winning one they shouldnt and we are cooked.

Or we win against say a Port Adelaide lol

 

[Tiges1229]

No chance

 

[Reservoir tiger]

It’s gonna come down to dogs and saints games.. win both those I guarantee we make it.

 

[RJK Tiger]

Carlton winning hurts that's for sure. Simple really we just gotta continue to win. If we make it all good and well, if not then lets finish this season off well going into next year.

What really hurts is Carlton are just playing much better than us atm.. They seem ramping up and I feel like we have been fighting on the ropers to 6 weeks straight. Its really difficult to see us being able to outlast these 8 other teams

I think we will still can make it - would require us to beat Nth, Hawks, Saints, Dogs. Win those and its hard for us to fall further than 8th. I think 3/4 of those is the more likely result - but 4/4 is plausible. Would mean we have losses to Demons and Port inbetween

 

[lllscroatlll]

tl;dr

Unfortunately for us, our opponents have more "8 point Games". The reason this sucks for us is, SOMEONE will win those games and get "the 8 points"

We have 2 - Vs Dogs & Saints.

We have 3 "Danger Games" - West Coast, Nth & Hawks

We have 2 "Underdog" games - Dee's & Port


To be honest if we can just win the 3 danger games & even split the "8 pointers", i think that would be a good result for this team and where they were at 12 weeks ago. Winning the ones "we should" has not been something we have been very good at for 3 years, so i would be happy to just see us do that tbh.

If we can win both or 1 of the underdog games and make the finals too, that would be awesome



Just to put it all into context because i am at work and bored and have the time.....


Saints
Danger Games (2)- Nth & Hawks
"8 Pointers" (4) - Cats, Tigers, Blues, Suns
Underdog (1)- Lions (Away)

Dogs
Danger Games (2) - Eagles & Hawks
"8 Pointers" - (5) Tigers, Swans (Away), Bombers, Giants, Cats

Bombers
Danger Games (2) - NTH & Eagles
"8 Pointers" ( 6) - Crows (home) Cats, Dogs, Swans (away), Giants (Away)
Underdog (1) - Pies

Swans
"8Pointers (6) - Dogs (home), Freo (away), Bombers (away) Giants, Suns (Home), Crows (away),
UnderDog (1) - Dee's (Home)

Crows
Danger (1) - Eagles
"8 Pointers"(4) - Bombers (away) Giants (Home), Suns (Home), Swans ( Home)
Underdog (3) - Dee's (away) Port, Lions (away)

Cats
"8 Pointers" (4) - Bombers, Dockers ( Home), Saints, Dogs
Underdog (3) - Lions (away), Port (Home), Pies

Freo
Danger (2)- Eagles, Hawks
" 8 Pointers (3)" blues ( Home), Swans ( Home ), Cats (Away)
Underdog (3) - Pies (away), Lions (home), Port ( Home)

Giants
"8 Pointers" (6) - Crows (away), Suns (Home), Dogs (Away), Swans, Bombers (Home), Carlton
Underdog (1) - Port (Away)

Blues
Danger (1)- Eagles
"8 Pointers" (4)- Dockers (away), Saints, Suns (Away), Giants ( Away)
Underdog (3) - Port (home) Pies, Dee's

Suns
Danger (1) - NTH
"8 Pointers (5) - Saints (Home), Giants (Away), Crows (away), Swans (Away), Blues( home)
Underdog (1) - Lions


The problem with all these teams pretty much having around 60+% "8 pointers" is, someone has to win them. As long as we can win the 3 we SHOULD win & at least split the 2 "8 pointers", i think that is a good effort and should put us in a place where the Hopper trade is no a total disaster. Effectively thats all we are playing for now - to keep face and not make the last off-season seem like something that is going to hold our rebuild back 5 years etc.

 

[TigerImposter]

Carlton have a better chance than us atm. We look slow and switched off.

 

[rfctigerarmy]

Carlton have a better chance than us atm. We look slow and switched off.

Our percentage is also shit

 

[JAKLAUGHING]

While we are winning, we are still a chance to play Finals! Go Tigers!

 

[TigerImposter]

Our percentage is also s**t

Yeah I know and i'm hoping we could displace a team with the 2points offset, but as you say CFC and Cats have the % gain and if we lose a game and Swans win an extra one they're even above us bc of %.

 

[rfctigerarmy]

Yeah I know and i'm hoping we could displace a team with the 2points offset, but as you say CFC and Cats have the % gain and if we lose a game and Swans win an extra one they're even above us bc of %.

Yep, that's exactly it. We wont get ground on percentage, so we're effectively another game behind.

 

[bradydaw91]

Yep, that's exactly it. We wont get ground on percentage, so we're effectively another game behind.

we just need Dogs/Stkilda/Essendon to continue their shaky form.

 

[Tiges1229]

we just need Dogs/Stkilda/Essendon to continue their shaky form.

AFL will rush in Deboy or OGorman , gusher or the dwarf somewhere down the track , most likely against dogs . Lube up lube up

 

[Groupie_]

Or we win against say a Port Adelaide lol

hopefully pears are locked into 1 or 2 at that point and play in first gear

 

[RJK Tiger]

tl;dr

Too long didn't read =too dumb, prefer twitter

If you find 450 words ( where 150 of them are literally in dot points) "too long to read" - then you are just showing off how lazy you are about forming opinions. It's 2-3 minute read. Ouch to your educators.

 

[Ctl]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Collingwood	21	2	0	133.0%
2.	Port Adelaide	18	5	0	112.0%
3.	Brisbane Lions	17	6	0	126.8%
4.	Melbourne	16	7	0	124.2%
5.	Geelong	13	9	1	120.2%
6.	Western Bulldogs	13	10	0	105.5%
7.	Carlton	12	10	1	113.2%
8.	Richmond	12	10	1	102.6%
9.	Essendon	12	11	0	102.9%
10.	GWS	12	11	0	98.7%
11.	Adelaide	11	12	0	110.2%
12.	St Kilda	11	12	0	101.4%
13.	Sydney	10	12	1	107.6%
14.	Gold Coast	9	14	0	93.9%
15.	Fremantle	9	14	0	90.9%
16.	Hawthorn	5	18	0	77.4%
17.	North Melbourne	3	20	0	68.3%
18.	West Coast	1	22	0	53.3%

I did the ladder predictor on squiggle.com We can maybe make it with 12 and a half but if essendon or GWS pinch a game then we are out, we need to get 13 wins to guarantee a spot. We also need St Kilda and Essendon to continue to fizzle out

 

[TigerImposter]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Collingwood	21	2	0	133.0%
2.	Port Adelaide	18	5	0	112.0%
3.	Brisbane Lions	17	6	0	126.8%
4.	Melbourne	16	7	0	124.2%
5.	Geelong	13	9	1	120.2%
6.	Western Bulldogs	13	10	0	105.5%
7.	Carlton	12	10	1	113.2%
8.	Richmond	12	10	1	102.6%
9.	Essendon	12	11	0	102.9%
10.	GWS	12	11	0	98.7%
11.	Adelaide	11	12	0	110.2%
12.	St Kilda	11	12	0	101.4%
13.	Sydney	10	12	1	107.6%
14.	Gold Coast	9	14	0	93.9%
15.	Fremantle	9	14	0	90.9%
16.	Hawthorn	5	18	0	77.4%
17.	North Melbourne	3	20	0	68.3%
18.	West Coast	1	22	0	53.3%

I did the ladder predictor on squiggle.com We can maybe make it with 12 and a half but if essendon or GWS pinch a game then we are out, we need to get 13 wins to guarantee a spot. We also need St Kilda and Essendon to continue to fizzle out

Did you use the ladder predictor with a RFC bias of 2.98?

 

[Ctl]

Did you use the ladder predictor with a RFC bias of 2.98?

Not sure what you mean, it was this link Squiggle AFL Ladder Predictor and I entered them manually

 

[rfctigerarmy]

Did you use the ladder predictor with a RFC bias of 2.98?

Surprised our percentage isn't 150

 

[TigerImposter]

Surprised our percentage isn't 150

We win the close ones mate. lol

 

[Truetiger]

Carlton have a better chance than us atm. We look slow and switched off.

I try not to watch many Carlton games or show interest. Have they had as many injuries to Star players like we have this season?

 

[RJK Tiger]

I try not to watch many Carlton games or show interest. Have they had as many injuries to Star players like we have this season?

They have had a decent share.

When you have the oldest list in the league and re-signed multiple 33+ year olds in the past 2 seasons - you can't moan about "injuries derailing your season". You signed up for that shit with your list management decisions.

we went old, we got more injures.

Suspensions this year have hurt us more than injuries & again, that is an "us" problem. Everyone needs to stop externalising our problems, its exhausting

 

[Feraligatr]

I don't care as long as Carlton don't make it.

 

[TigerImposter]

I try not to watch many Carlton games or show interest. Have they had as many injuries to Star players like we have this season?

I'm not sure TT as i'm like you on that .

 

[RJK Tiger]

I posted this on the 9th of July, thought it might be interesting to re-post it with the updates of resul



Cats
"8 Pointers" (1/4) - Bombers, Dockers ( Home), Saints, Dogs
Underdog (3) - Lions (away), Port (Home), Pies

Saints
Danger Games (2)- Nth & Hawks
"8 Pointers" (0/4) - Cats, Tigers, Blues, Suns
Underdog (1)- Lions (Away)

Dogs
Danger Games (2) - Eagles & Hawks
"8 Pointers" - (0/5) Tigers, Swans (Away), Bombers, Giants, Cats

Bombers
Danger Games (2) - NTH & Eagles
"8 Pointers" ( 0/6) - Crows (home) Cats, Dogs, Swans (away), Giants (Away)
Underdog (1) - Pies

Giants
"8 Pointers" (1/6) - Crows (away), Suns (Home), Dogs (Away), Swans, Bombers (Home), Carlton
Underdog (1) - Port (Away)

Blues
Danger (1)- Eagles
"8 Pointers" (4)- Dockers (away), Saints, Suns (Away), Giants ( Away)
Underdog (1/3) - Port (home) Pies, Dee's

Tigers
Danger Games (1/3) - Eagles, Hawks, Nth
"8 Pointers" (2) - Saints, Dogs
Underdog Games ( 2) - Demons, Port (Away)


Crows
Danger (1) - Eagles
"8 Pointers"(0/4) - Bombers (away) Giants (Home), Suns (Home), Swans ( Home)
Underdog (3) - Dee's (away) Port, Lions (away)

Swans
"8Pointers (1/6) - Dogs (home), Freo (away), Bombers (away) Giants, Suns (Home), Crows (away),
UnderDog (1) - Dee's (Home)

Suns
Danger (1) - NTH
"8 Pointers (1/5) - Saints (Home), Giants (Away), Crows (away), Swans (Away), Blues( home)
Underdog (1) - Lions

Freo
Danger (2)- Eagles, Hawks
" 8 Pointers (3)" blues ( Home), Swans ( Home ), Cats (Away)
Underdog (0/3) - Pies (away), Lions (home), Port ( Home)




Based on the above, I would say with zero confidence that 5th -10th will be made up of some order of Geelong, Dogs, Carlton, Richmond, Bombers & Giants - hopefully in that order. Its crazy how much every result swings the end projections on a Ladder Predictor.


For example look at this variant below. This was my "result" of we win both our "8 pointers" & our 2 "Danger Games". The below is made up of a logic that the winning team is based on odds, form etc. It accounts for very little "shock results" & us winning both our 50/50 games - which is against the odds atm.



If however i change the result of the Dogs Vs Giants game to be a "shock" win to the Giants (which is completely feasible for me), the Giants go to 5th & the Dogs drop to 10th. They literally swap spots without affecting any other teams positions. THATS how cut throat all these games are now.

For the teams 5th to 15th, they are basically having their own mini final series for the last 5 weeks of the season. Its going to be wild to see how it all plays out. The Giants are the team who i think might shock people & not only make the 8, but end up with a home final. For all the glory Scott, Ross & even Voss is getting over the resurgence of their teams - it might end up being Kingsley that is the one that really wins the battle. Its a guy like him & Fly that reinforce the notion that no matter how 2023 ends, we need to interview very seriously before hiring. Mini is bringing the same ethos than Dimma & we need to be sure that is definitely the best vision for the next surge

For context - if i could have Mini or Kingsley as our next coach, I would take Kingsley