First club to 17 premierships?

[footyfan1978]

They looked amazing last night, but 4 more flags (5 in total) with this group would be something never done in the salary cap/draft era (hawks crossed over between the 2).

Mind you everyone else could get stuck and melb get 17 before everyone else in 2046.

All true and they unlikely to get there before us, but this league history has been great how different clubs can become the power in league in different eras.
Melbourne are the only club to do a dynasty such as 1950's.
The 6, 6, 6 rule setup plays right into hands of their mdifield set up right now. If Gawn can hang around for long enough , anything is possible. Petracca, Oliver and Jackson are young enough to play all decade together....

Of course I back us to get to 17 before them but it still possible they go on a big premiership run if no one can stop their engine room repeating what we saw yesterday. It good for football for that to be what you need to better...

 

[Fadge]

OK, here is my crack at the probability for each respective team to get to 17 first, based on they starting position they are all as likely as each other in any given year. I may have done something fundamentally wrong here, as I actually think the likes of Carlton and Essendon should be better than 30%, and the likes of Freo, GWS and Gold Coast each a fraction of a percent (as opposed to nearly 1.5% each).

Anyway, It's a starting point...

 

[mcgarnacle]

Grand Final Winning Percentage - UPDATED

In order of #Premierships, then win %

Club | W-L | %

Carlton | 16-13 | 0.552
Essendon | 16-14 | 0.533
Collingwood | 15-27 | 0.357
Melbourne | 13-5 | 0.722
Hawthorn | 13-6 | 0.684
Richmond | 13-12 | 0.520
Geelong | 9-10 | 0.474
Fitzroy | 8-5 | 0.615
South Melbourne/Sydney | 5-12 | 0.294
North Melbourne | 4-5 | 0.444
West Coast | 4-3 | 0.571
Brisbane Lions | 3-1 | 0.750
Adelaide | 2-1 | 0.667
Footscray | 2-2 | 0.500
St Kilda | 1-6 | 0.143
Port Adelaide | 1-1 | 0.500
Fremantle | 0-1 | 0.000
Giants | 0-1 | 0.000

Tough on all accounts for St Kilda fans

Melbourne and Hawthorn have a wonderful strike rate in Grand Finals. Just to think these two clubs could have potentially merged in the 90s. Melbourne were happy to give up. Hawthorn had the conviction to continue alone. Melbourne wouldn't have this today if it weren't for Hawthorn making the hard decision for them.

 

[windyhill]

Clearly we need a female President, so it’s either Paul Brasher starts transitioning or we pluck one from our Women’s Network thingy.

 

[Pedantic]

Melbourne do tend to win flags in clumps...

 

[Xhoquelin]

One of 13 voters for the Dees in this thread now

 

[Rasha]

Melbourne do tend to win flags in clumps...

Richmond and Hawthorn tend to do so as well.

 

[Blues177]

Regarding the clubs that now have 13 premierships it would be very difficult for a club to do what Melbourne did in the 1950's /early 1960's when they won 6 premierships in 10 years. John Nicholls, who played in that era, once mentioned that during that time there were many weak clubs and there were only 2 or 3 premiership contenders in each season.

Perhaps the demons can do what Brisbane, Geelong, Hawthorn and Richmond have done since 2000 but I believe that a Melb 1950's type dynasty would be very unlikely in this professional and competitive era of AFL for a club to achieve in the future.
Therefore the blues, bombers or pies getting to no.17 first is more likely.

 

[Rasha]

Regarding the clubs that now have 13 premierships it would be very difficult for a club to do what Melbourne did in the 1950's /early 1960's when they won 6 premierships in 10 years. John Nicholls, who played in that era, once mentioned that during that time there were many weak clubs and there were only 2 or 3 premiership contenders in each season.

Perhaps the demons can do what Brisbane, Geelong, Hawthorn and Richmond have done since 2000 but I believe that a Melb 1950's type dynasty would be very unlikely in this professional and competitive era of AFL for a club to achieve in the future.
Therefore the blues, bombers or pies getting to no.17 first is more likely.

I'd be surprised if Melbourne didn't win at least another 2 premierships.
Their season this year was reminiscent of Geelong 2007/Richmond 2017 and we know what happened after that.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Richmond and Hawthorn tend to do so as well.

Carlton 79-81, Essendon 84-85

 

[Carringbush2010]

Therefore the blues, bombers getting to no.17 first is more likely.

EFA.

 

[footyfan1978]

Grand Final Winning Percentage - UPDATED

In order of #Premierships, then win %

Club | W-L | %

Carlton | 16-13 | 0.552
Essendon | 16-14 | 0.533

NEWSFLASH.
Your stats are out as Essendon only won 14 grand finals, not 16.
Back to the drawing board.

 

[DERIBERATE]

OK, here is my crack at the probability for each respective team to get to 17 first, based on they starting position they are all as likely as each other in any given year. I may have done something fundamentally wrong here, as I actually think the likes of Carlton and Essendon should be better than 30%, and the likes of Freo, GWS and Gold Coast each a fraction of a percent (as opposed to nearly 1.5% each).

Anyway, It's a starting point...

View attachment 1246337

From that list I'd probably go GWS

 

[Jibroni]

After last night the only request I have beat Hawthorn or Essendon in a GF before my time on earth is done.

 

[Tulip]

We almost definitely won’t but it’s being talked about in threads like this that make me feel proud to support a club that is finally relevant.

 

[OneEyedHawk]

Not really. Saints have 1 in 120ish years.

Freo zero.

Premierships are hard to predict but there must be something to it.

Exactly. And equally, some clubs just seem to win flags. Even when they dip you just know it won't be too long before they are back. Admittedly when I grew up Carlton & Essendon were two of those clubs so that theory can probably be thrown in the toilet.

I think Hawks are at least the equal chance of any. Very recently won 4 in 8 years, less than 20 years prior they also won 5 in 9. Carlton have shown zero that they're anywhere near a flag, and once powerful Bummers haven't even won a final in 6200+ days, bit of work to do lifting the cup. Pies could do it, but it's VERY hard to respect the flags won when the minor premier could just ask for a do-over when they lost a grand final.

But as others have said, why the mystique surrounding 17? Seems the very definition of arbitrary to me.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Juddernaut08]

Exactly. And equally, some clubs just seem to win flags. Even when they dip you just know it won't be too long before they are back. Admittedly when I grew up Carlton & Essendon were two of those clubs so that theory can probably be thrown in the toilet.

I think Hawks are at least the equal chance of any. Very recently won 4 in 8 years, less than 20 years prior they also won 5 in 9. Carlton have shown zero that they're anywhere near a flag, and once powerful Bummers haven't even won a final in 6200+ days, bit of work to do lifting the cup. Pies could do it, but it's VERY hard to respect the flags won when the minor premier could just ask for a do-over when they lost a grand final.

But as others have said, why the mystique surrounding 17? Seems the very definition of arbitrary to me.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

easy question. 16 has been the record for 26 years. 17 would be the new record and claim for the most successful club

 

[Rasha]

easy question. 16 has been the record for 26 years. 17 would be the new record and claim for the most successful club

I'll break out my cheese platter if Melbourne get there first and become the outright leader.

 

[smasha]

The 13 club,cheese platters,cigars and VB Longnecks.

Tigers,Demons,Hawks.

 

[mcgarnacle]

NEWSFLASH.
Your stats are out as Essendon only won 14 grand finals, not 16.
Back to the drawing board.

True story. I was lazy and just went off premierships and runners up for this so I didn't have to explain it. And Essendon supporters would have a cry. But since you picked it up ......

Adjustments were also made for Geelong (1897) and Richmond (1924) where no GF was played but the clubs were determined to be runner-up in those respective seasons.

Further adjustments made for drawn GF's in 1948, 1977, and 2010; i.e, added GF's and half-win to each participant in accordance with standard W-L-D % calculations.

In order of GF won, then %

#GF | Club | W-L-D | %

29 | Carlton | 16-13 | 0.552
44 | Collingwood | 15-27-2 | 0.364
29 | Essendon | *14-14-1 | 0.500
19 | Melbourne | 13-5-1 | 0.711
19 | Hawthorn | 13-6 | 0.684
24 | Richmond | 13-11 | 0.542
18 | Geelong | 9-9 | 0.500
13 | Fitzroy | 8-5 | 0.615
17 | South Melbourne/Sydney | 5-12 | 0.294
7 | West Coast | 4-3 | 0.571
10 | North Melbourne | 4-5-1 | 0.450
4 | Brisbane Lions | 3-1 | 0.750
3 | Adelaide | 2-1 | 0.667
4 | Footscray | 2-2 | 0.500
2 | Port Adelaide | 1-1 | 0.500
8 | St Kilda | 1-6-1 | 0.188
1 | Fremantle | 0-1 | 0.000
1 | Giants | 0-1 | 0.000

*Essendon have 16 premierships, but have won 14 Grand Finals. The 1897 & 1924 premierships were decided by a round-robin finals system, and both premierships were won by Essendon.

 

[footyfan1978]

True story. I was lazy and just went off premierships and runners up for this so I didn't have to explain it. And Essendon supporters would have a cry. But since you picked it up ......

Adjustments were also made for Geelong (1897) and Richmond (1924) where no GF was played but the clubs were determined to be runner-up in those respective seasons.

Further adjustments made for drawn GF's in 1948, 1977, and 2010; i.e, added GF's and half-win to each participant in accordance with standard W-L-D % calculations.

In order of GF won, then %

#GF | Club | W-L-D | %

29 | Carlton | 16-13 | 0.552
44 | Collingwood | 15-27-2 | 0.364
29 | Essendon | *14-14-1 | 0.500
19 | Melbourne | 13-5-1 | 0.711
19 | Hawthorn | 13-6 | 0.684
24 | Richmond | 13-11 | 0.542
18 | Geelong | 9-9 | 0.500
13 | Fitzroy | 8-5 | 0.615
17 | South Melbourne/Sydney | 5-12 | 0.294
7 | West Coast | 4-3 | 0.571
10 | North Melbourne | 4-5-1 | 0.450
4 | Brisbane Lions | 3-1 | 0.750
3 | Adelaide | 2-1 | 0.667
4 | Footscray | 2-2 | 0.500
2 | Port Adelaide | 1-1 | 0.500
8 | St Kilda | 1-6-1 | 0.188
1 | Fremantle | 0-1 | 0.000
1 | Giants | 0-1 | 0.000

*Essendon have 16 premierships, but have won 14 Grand Finals. The 1897 & 1924 premierships were decided by a round-robin finals system, and both premierships were won by Essendon.

Well done on corrections.
Great stuff.

 

[mcgarnacle]

Well done on corrections.
Great stuff.

We all know getting to a Grand Final is ****ing hard. What this overwhelmingly shows is that winning a Grand Final once you're there is also difficult for most clubs who have made it a fair number of times. Melbourne and Hawthorn are two clubs with a great record. Before 1988, Melbourne were 12-3-1. Outstanding!

Melbourne have really benefitted playing off against Collingwood though. They've met 7 times in a Grand Final, with Melbourne leading the head-to-head, 6-1.

 

[footyfan1978]

Melbourne have really benefitted playing off against Collingwood though. They've met 7 times in a Grand Final, with Melbourne leading the head-to-head, 6-1.

We toy with them better though. Letting them get 44 points up in 1970, 1979, 5 goals up and 1981 letting them go 3 goals up time on in third quarter is just more fun at their expense. Not beat us in a grand final since the 1910 bribery scandal...

 

[Major Colvin]

Carlton/Essendon still the best bet. I think Essendon are slightly closer.

Collingwood pretty unlucky not to be on 16 - have lost four of their last five GF's.

A Carlton v Essendon GF for the 17th flag would be pretty entertaining. Bit of a nightmare for the neutrals deciding who to support...

 

[footyfan1978]

Did not notice Demons, Hawks and Tigers all on 13 flags until I visited this thread. Forgot Tigers got to 13 last year.