Forecasting the 2010 top 8

[aflratings]

YOUR TEAMS FINAL 5 GAMES OF 2009

Looking forward to 2010 and the endless possibilities of where your team may or may not finish, a quick refresh of how the season finished for each team in their last 5 games.


Forecasting the final 8 may be impossible so far from the start of the season, but taking a look at these final 5 games with the added bonus of analyzing the trading period and both drafts to see where each team is headed may just be the right formula in predicting next season's final 8.

2009 FINAL 5 GAMES LADDER

1. ADELAIDE Won 4 Lost 1 170.5%
2. GEELONG Won 4 Lost 1 134.6%
3. WEST COAST Won 4 Lost 1 118.8%
4. ST KILDA Won 3 Lost 2 120.6%
5. WESTERN BULLDOGS Won 3 Lost 2 117.7%
6. CARLTON Won 3 Lost 2 113.1%
7. NTH MELBOURNE Won 3 Lost 2 105.9%
8. BRISBANE Won 3 Lost 2 92.2%

9. ESSENDON Won 2 Lost 2 Draw 1 78.2%
10. FREMANTLE Won 2 Lost 3 92.3%
11. COLLINGWOOD Won 2 Lost 3 81.8%
12. SYDNEY Won 1 Lost 4 100.0%
13. HAWTHORN Won 1 Lost 4 91.0%
14. PORT ADELAIDE Won 1 Lost 4 81.3%
15. MELBOURNE Won 1 Lost 4 80.2%
16. RICHMOND Won 1 Lost 4 56.9%

*All 5 games include finals

 

[Sw3Et]

Woohoo go us!

 

[Roxley]

I think you should do it not including finals..
would be more accurate

 

[Zvim]

This is more a late 2009 form guide than a forecast for 2010 because I think some lists will be radically different in 2010.

Brisbane for example will have a big wad of the team different. Carlton will have to learn to kick a score without Fev, Doggies have a FF finally, some were riddled with injuries and others were tanking.

In 2008 Richmond won their last 3 games and only won 5 in 2009, so 2010 can be very different to how 2009 ended.

 

[The Panther]

It's pointless having a figure that includes finals for some teams & not others.

 

[mdc]

You're much better off looking at the first however many games than the last 5.

Late season results are usually skewed by injury, finals contention etc...and so provide a shocking predictor of future success.

People made that very same mistake with Richmond this year.

 

[Prem87]

Next year will be one of the most even years of football which will be great spectating, a lot of close games ahead IMO. Can't wait for 2010.

 

[Bartel]

Cats will win Minor Premiers, by percentage. But they will unfourntunetly finish 3rd losing to Adelaide coming 2nd and St Kilda finishing 1st in the GF by 39 points.

 

[Bartel]

Melbourne will win wooden spoon once again.

But really I have no idea I just have an instinct feeling that this will happen. But I hope it doesn't - CATS FOR PREMIERS 2010!!! -

 

[Donakebab]

Next year will be one of the most even years of football which will be great spectating, a lot of close games ahead IMO. Can't wait for 2010.

This year had something like 40 odd games decided by 2 kicks with a lot more only just over that. If next year has even more then it will be an epic year of football.

 

[mighty tiges]

Based on the history of the top 8 one of this year's top 4 will not make the finals in 2010. The 2008 top 4 casualty was Hawthorn. So one of Geelong, St Kilda, Bulldogs or Collingwood won't be playing finals next year. Sounds implausible but so did Hawthorn missing the finals sound implausible this time last year.

Next up there's on average two changes to the top 8 from year to year. This year was above average with 3 changes - Carlton, Brisbane and Essendon in; Hawthorn, Sydney and North out. So at least one of the 5th-8th teams of 2009 should also miss finals next year. Hawthorn, Eagles and Swans would have claims on a top 8 spot in 2010. The rest of this year's bottom 8 should struggle.

 

[Rack Watts]

It's funny, on that ladder it says we had a draw, but there are no other teams with draws.

 

[Undecide]

It's funny, on that ladder it says we had a draw, but there are no other teams with draws.

Essendon played essendon and it was a draw. To make up for this lost game freo played freo and freo lost.

 

[Spluff]

Now there's a percentage you could hang your hat on. Shows just how much the players didn't care.

 

[lemons123]

Essendon played essendon and it was a draw. To make up for this lost game freo played freo and freo lost.

haha nice.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Next year will be one of the most even years of football which will be great spectating, a lot of close games ahead IMO. Can't wait for 2010.

And Carlton and Richmond was supposed to be a ripper game in RND 1 of this season. FAIL

I hope it is close this year, but all teams look good straight after trade week.

 

[dajesmac]

It's funny, on that ladder it says we had a draw, but there are no other teams with draws.

Brisbane pplayed the extra final, pushing it's draw out the other side.

 

[pWnd]

if we did the same thing for 2009 using the last 5 games they played in 2008...

Hawthorn.......5 1.75
Geelong.........4 1.51
St Kilda..........3 1.20
Adelaide.........3 1.12
Collingwood.....3 1.11
Richmond........3 0.98
Port Adelaide...2 1.11
Fremantle.......2 1.01
WB................2 0.99
Sydney...........2 0.95
Carlton...........2 0.89
North Melb.......2 0.87
Brisbane..........1 0.74
Essendon........1 0.69
West Coast.....1 0.62
Melbourne.......1 0.56

...could be worse i suppose

 

[Bring-Back-Powell]

Melbourne will win wooden spoon once again.

Interesting call considering Richmond actually had the worst % in the league. What makes you think Richmond will finish ahead of Melbourne, given that Melbourne now have the green light to start winning games again?

 

[CarnTheTiges]

Interesting call considering Richmond actually had the worst % in the league. What makes you think Richmond will finish ahead of Melbourne, given that Melbourne now have the green light to start winning games again?

While the Dees have picked up some guns, don't expect them to fire instantly give 'em a year or more.

 

[Bartel]

exactly, maybe in 2 years the dees will be right up there

 

[Red n Black Pride]

My Top 8 2010 (which could change after NAB Cup, injuries etc)

1. Western Bulldogs
2. St Kilda
3. Geelong
4. Adelaide.
5. Collingwood
6. Brisbane
7. Hawthorn
8. Essendon

Carlton will struggle without Fev no doubt about it. Look for Melbourne to give a few quality teams a good shake. I think the time is right for the Dogs and Hall will straighten them up. And call me bias, whatever, Essendon could do some damage in September.

 

[Knight Ryders]

I see Brisbane struggling next year - they've had a lot of upheaval all in one year. If they do well, it will speak volumes for Vossy as a coach.

7th or 8th position could well again be filled by a team/s that haven't got a 50% winning record as the top 5 (Geelong, Saints, Pies, Crows, Bulldogs) seem to all be peaking right now.

 

[MF]

Essendon could do some damage in September.

Against the other clubs you've listed in the 8? I doubt it.

If they manage to make the 8 they'll most likely embarrass themselves again.

 

[AG]

And call me bias, whatever, Essendon could do some damage in September.

Off the field?