Forward Line Restructure - Longer Term Implications

[Vader]

We have seen some extremely creative restructuring of the Crows forward line during the 2008 MMC. McLeod, Goodwin and (to a lesser extent) Edwards have all been positioned in the forward line rather than the midfield. There is also talk that Bassett may join them there.

There are two obvious benefits to this...

Firstly, our forward line is now looking more potent and dangerous than it has in YEARS. For the first time since Modra left, we have some A-grade talent inside the F50, rather than a large number of "backboners". The results have been stunning, with consecutive 100+ point scorelines in the first two games played.

Secondly, the midfield is now clear for the youngsters to step up - and Knights, Van Berlo, Reilly, Thompson & Porplyzia have all stood up to the challenge remarkably well to date. Full credit to the club for the way they have managed the midfield turnover - the results have been far better than I would have predicted 2 years ago.

However, the move also has implications for the future of our forward line which we also need to consider.

Having lost a number of mediocre forwards, we are now stacking it with a large number of veterans who may not be around for long. I'm slightly concerned that this may result in a "dead cat bounce", the result of applying a short term solution while doing little to address the longer term problems (as Pagan did with Carlton, resulting in their rise in 2004 only to crash again in 2005).

2008 will almost certainly be the last year for Edwards & Bassett. 2009 will see the end of Goodwin and probably McLeod. From 2010 and beyond, it is going to be entirely up to the kids who are on our list now, or will be drafted in the near future.

Macca, Goody, Edwards and Bassett are automatic selections. No doubt about it. We need to find a position for them in our 22 each week. But is it sustainable for us to be stacking the forward line with these players, or are we making a trap for ourselves further down the line?

It is absolutely imperative that we get games into our younger forwards - Sellar, Tippett, Jacky, Walker, Otten and whoever else. The club did well in managing the development of VB, Knights & co to the point that they were ready to become the A-team in the midfield when the veterans moved out. We need to see similar efforts employed to ensure that our younger forwards are ready to seize the mantle when our veterans retire once and for all.

 

[NikkiNoo]

As I see it Vader it will of great benefit to our younger foward line players to have these champions around them. Why?

1. The opposition are of course going to consider Goodwin, McLeod and Edwards as a major threat. With the inclusion of Burton into this group, it means that our younger players will not have to contend with the 'best' defensive player standing on them.

2. The experienced heads there to guide and advise them on the field.

3. The speed of the game now means that it is rare for a forward line player to play every minute of every game. So there is space on the bench for a forward line player, not just the 6 onfield ones.

Each team needs their blend of youth and experience. We all have seen over the past years that youth does not equate success. Hawthorn have a blend of youth and experience and Collingwood last year also had a similiar blend. Those that are more purely youth focused, especially in their forward line have finished regularly down the bottom of the ladder - Richmond and Carlton to name too. Now they both have a fairly experienced Key forward in each of their team but after that there is a sharp drop in talent and experience around them.

 

[Mismatched]

You make a good point there Vader, however I wouldn't be too worried, you have to remember that the midfield is probably 2-3 years more advanced/mature than our young forwards coming through and key forwards probably take longer to develop. At this stage of the careers of the likes of Tippet, Sellar, Walker etc. it is probably good for them to mix some AFL games with SANFL and whilst AFL, what would be better for their development than playing next to proven stars of the comp like Mcleod, Goodwin, Edwards and maybe Basset, they can watch closely how these blokes go about their footy and the way they compete.

If Sellar and Tippet say were 1 or 2 more years experienced, I would be worried about giving our veterans a game, but they're only into their second years(first in the case of Walker) and even then, both Sellar and Tippet had largely interupted seasons last year due to injury. Playing the older blokes up forward will also allow us to remain competitive throughout the season, so these younger bloke develop through a winning atmosphere, which IMO is extremely important.

 

[betterthanu]

Sellar and Tippett will play every game this year between them (if that makes sense) and prob every game next year. Next year Walker and Jacky will hopefully be in the same position Jimmy and Kurt will be in this year. Also next year we should hopefully have Hentchel back to his normal self. If it works out how i assume the AFC are planning it, then as these veterans retire, the young kids will be able to step up in their place after already having a taste. Thats a pretty talented forward line coming through if you ask me.

I think playing the veterans up forward will be to simply plug the holes up there while the eventual replacement finds his feet. Lets just hope that a young forward like Jacky dosnt have to out perform a Veteran to be able to take his spot up forward. In the case that JAcky, for example, is dominating in the SANFl, hopefully a Goodwin or McLeod can be moved back into defence to accommodate Jacky having a crack.

Hope that made sense (im nursing a bad hangover )

 

[Mismatched]

Hope that made sense (im nursing a bad hangover )

Plenty of sense mate, but maybe thats because in the same kinda state

 

[Vader]

Some good discussion here. Rather than quote everyone, I'll try to tackle it point by point.

Nikki made a good point that we need a blend of youth and experience, in our forward line as elsewhere in the team. My point is that we seem to have gone for the extremely old (albeit highly talented) forward line - Bassett, Burton, Macca, Goody & Edwards are all 30 (or soon will be - Burton's 30th is this May). Sandwiched in between that lot we have ONE youngster, with Sellar & Tippett likely to play all 22 games this year between them.

Take the development of VB & Knights as a guide.

VB played 7 games in 2005. He became a regular, albeit bench-based, member of the side in 2006. In 2007 he consolidated nicely, breaking through the 20+ disposal barrier on multiple occasions. In 2008 he is part of our A-team midfield. That's 3 complete seasons before he was ready to be counted as a senior player.

Knights has followed a similar trajectory. 2 games in 2005, 10 games in 2006, 22 in 2007, senior player in 2008.

Reilly took a little longer, Thompson's development years were largely done at Melbourne. Porps is a different case, having spent longer in the SANFL - always had the class, just needed to build his fitness base.

This is what I would expect from many of our youngsters, if they are going to make it as quality AFL players. Maybe factor in an additional year for the KPP types?

This year we have Sellar & Tippett commencing year 1 of this process. If they are on track, they should be A-team players in 2011. If we're really lucky, Jacky, Otten & Walker will also be at year 1 - though I suspect this will be year 0 for Walker (as it was for Sellar & Tippett last year). These guys will (hopefully) be ready in 2012.

As discussed previously, Bassett, Goody, Macca, Edwards & Burton will all be gone by 2010. That would appear to leave us with an underdone forward line for a couple of years - yes? No?

 

[NikkiNoo]

Just because we are currently playing Goodwin, McLeod and Edwards in the forward lines in the NAB does not mean that all three will play in there at the same time. More than likely there will only be 2 at the most.

 

[Vader]

Just because we are currently playing Goodwin, McLeod and Edwards in the forward lines in the NAB does not mean that all three will play in there at the same time. More than likely there will only be 2 at the most.

True, but the point remains that we're not blooding many young forwards this year and it is an area where we will have a VERY old age profile.

 

[James23]

the way i see it panning out is a similar way to how our mifield has been panned out over the past 2 years.

Alot of old faces, with stints of new faces slowly phased in. So instead of knights, thompson, van berlo, porplyzia, douglas.... we have sellar, tippett, jacky, walker, kite.

If this is managed as effective as our midfield has been managed over the past couple of seasons, then by the time its ready for goodwin, mcleod and edwards to retire then we will have a young, exiciting forward line ready to take on the competition for the next decade.

I think it is brilliant list management by craig

 

[Vader]

the way i see it panning out is a similar way to how our mifield has been panned out over the past 2 years.

Alot of old faces, with stints of new faces slowly phased in. So instead of knights, thompson, van berlo, porplyzia, douglas.... we have sellar, tippett, jacky, walker, kite.

If this is managed as effective as our midfield has been managed over the past couple of seasons, then by the time its ready for goodwin, mcleod and edwards to retire then we will have a young, exiciting forward line ready to take on the competition for the next decade.

I think it is brilliant list management by craig

And therein lies the key. The question I'm asking is whether Craig has the time to pull off the same trick he did with our midfield, before these guys ride off into the sunset? I suspect this time the answer may be no.

As I said before, it takes 4 years for a draftee to become a consistent senior player, using VB & Knights as my template. Make that 5 years for a KPP type.

Goody, Macca, Edwards, Burton & Bassett all have 1-2 years left in them.

See the gap?

 

[Kennyrocks]

Great post Vader, I'm excited to see the likes of Knights, Van Berlo and Porplyzia being led in the middle by Thommo and Reilly.
As you also mention, our forwardline looks the best it has for years! Granted, higher scores are going to happen in NAB cup games due to their more free-flowing nature but it just looks good and we are certainly better off without Perrie and Welsh-hallelujah!

Heres my preferred forwardline setup for 2008:
HF: Burton Gill/Sellar Mcleod
FF: Sellar McGregor Goodwin

A few clarifications
- Sellar's exact position yet to be determined, could fill Gill's CHF positoion but a big ask this early on and I would prefer to see him Forward pocket initially. Possibly move into Full Forward if he shows enough, for now having McGregor next to him will be invaluable as two of Ken's great strengths are to hold off an opposition player to the benefit of a team-mate and bring the ball to ground to the advantage of our players. He will also be a good mentor for Sellar alongside Goody and Mcleod. Not to mention that for the first half of the year at least, Kenny will take pressure of Sellar by taking the #1 defender.
- It is important to give the youngsters a run in the middle but I hope they dont (and I dont think they will) remove Goody too significantly from the Middle. Perhaps something like half and half is suitable?
- Mcleod up forward is tasty but seeing as though he's been amazing in defence I'm not sure if this will be a significant move, flexibility from Craigy is what I want to see, but it hasnt happened enough on match-day IMHO.
- If Burton is/stays fit he will be very dangerous and is capable of 50+ goals easily, does anyone know how he's travelling?

 

[KUNG FU]

I'm on your side with this one Macca, but McLeod, Goodwin & Edwards will be playing small forward roles as part of a midfield rotation. This will hasten the development of our midfield. The only genuine small forward these guys would be keeping out of the 22 would be Jacky, and he seems like he needs more footy practice. I'd rather blood the young midfielders MacKay, Douglas, Vince and so on. Furthermore, these small forward/midfield rotations will not affect our tall forward structure - which needs serious fast tracking - something that McGregor & Gill are standing in the way of IMO. They should be the targets of concern. I have deliberately excluded Bassett, but I doubt he'll pinch hit more than Stevens or Bock anyway.

 

[Rave Slave]

I see your point Vader and I agree with you to an extent. I am less worried than you however because I think an A grade midfield can nurse a D grade forward line far more than the other way around.

By the time the big 4 (Bass, Goody, Macca and Tys) are all gone from the club I believe vB, Knights, Porps, Reilly, Vince, Douglas and Thomo will form one of the strongest midfields in the competition. With that you can afford to throw a still developing Sellar, Tippett and Jacky into the forwardline. Mcgregor and Gill will still be around in some form and if you use the West Coast model as an example I think the drop in goalscoring will be saved by the scoring power of our midfield.

It's not like the kids we're throwing forward have no talent either, so you'll still get some brilliant performances, its purely an issue of consistency.

All good

 

[MickyCrow]

So Just think- by 2012 we will have an A grade midfield, with an A grade forward line (Walker, Sellar, Tippett, Jacky, Kite, etc) and an A grade defence led by Bock and Rutten....

 

[Blind Fred]

Yep, I like the look of the new forward line. Obviously when they cut the numbers for game one there will be less players for the midfield rotations and Goodwin and Edwards will have to spend some time going through the middle, but it certainly takes the heat off our younger forwards like Sellar and Tippett if Goodwin, Mcleod are running around inside 50. Just looking through the team, there will be some pain at selection for round one because there's quite a bunch of talls and midfielders fighting for spots. Even in defence, if Bassett puts his name forward by playing okay this week there will be some options. Down the track, I think our attack will be okay but we still need Sellar, Tippett, Walker and Jacky to come through at some stage.

 

[jenny61_99]

The luxury of having a McLeod and Goodwin playing forward is fantastic - as you say, for the short term - but it also allows Craigy to develop his forwards the way he wants with a plethora of talent surrounding them. Macca and Goodie probably have at least 2 years left (barring injury), and Im not sure why people think Edwards will go any sooner than them, he still seems to be in pretty good nick... Burton is the unknown quantity in that his body will be the decider rather than age. I don't think we can count on getting Hentschell back in any form - if we do, it's a bonus. We know that Porps can play forward, we also have Gill. Sellar and Tippett don't look like your typical Douglas/Vince/Mackay/VB/Knights type players, rather they have mature bodies that look ready made to play so I don't think they will take as long to develop. Having two years to develop them surrounded by the cream of the crop will be absolutely brilliant.

 

[Crow-mo]

I think there are problems, mainly starting with the idea that the new 're-structure' is not proven.

you mention we have moved out the mediocre forwards and replaced them with class veterans. but these veterans are midfielders and not forwards - their effectiveness is far from certain in these roles.

your POV is focussing on the after effects of these move, but I contend we are not nearly in a position to be worrying about the after effects, as we do not even know about the now effects.

This also goes with the 'new' midfield. it seems we have recast the dice, and lots of people are in new roles. the pre-season cup is not enough - for me - to be comfortable yet, that we understand the current implications let alone any sort of dead cat bounce tomorrow.

 

[ok.crows]

And therein lies the key. The question I'm asking is whether Craig has the time to pull off the same trick he did with our midfield, before these guys ride off into the sunset? I suspect this time the answer may be no.

As I said before, it takes 4 years for a draftee to become a consistent senior player, using VB & Knights as my template. Make that 5 years for a KPP type.

Goody, Macca, Edwards, Burton & Bassett all have 1-2 years left in them.

See the gap?

Sellar & Tippet are already 1 year into the process. Gill & even McGregor are part of this turnover picture as well, and do not need any introduction period. Walker & Jacky are new this year, and will need 3 or 4 years. In the longer term, perhaps a Patrenko or someone else from the fringe might be able to step up.

Basset is primarily a backman, and Stevens is taking his role in the short term, and in the longer term we have (perhaps) Gallman or a similar player.

That means the club has it covered with just one (1) ready-made traded forward or mature recruit in the next three years.

 

[Allefgib]

I think there are problems, mainly starting with the idea that the new 're-structure' is not proven.

you mention we have moved out the mediocre forwards and replaced them with class veterans. but these veterans are midfielders and not forwards - their effectiveness is far from certain in these roles.

your POV is focussing on the after effects of these move, but I contend we are not nearly in a position to be worrying about the after effects, as we do not even know about the now effects.

This also goes with the 'new' midfield. it seems we have recast the dice, and lots of people are in new roles. the pre-season cup is not enough - for me - to be comfortable yet, that we understand the current implications let alone any sort of dead cat bounce tomorrow.

I'll second the above.

On another note Vader, think of how 'promising' the new look midfield is. I would credit part of that to the time and method in developing the likes of VB, Knights, Reilly etc. Surely, bringing along the young forward options in the same manner would make some sense? I realise that might leave a gap but maybe we're just in a position where the best solution is we have that gap rather than try to rush their development.

 

[Vader]

I'll second the above.

On another note Vader, think of how 'promising' the new look midfield is. I would credit part of that to the time and method in developing the likes of VB, Knights, Reilly etc. Surely, bringing along the young forward options in the same manner would make some sense? I realise that might leave a gap but maybe we're just in a position where the best solution is we have that gap rather than try to rush their development.

I wholeheartedly agree that the way in which the "new" midfield has been developed has been nothing short of stunning.

I would love for the forward line to be developed in a similar manner, with senior and junior players mixing it together over the next 3-4 years as the juniors grow in body, experience and confidence. The problem, as I see it, is that most of these veterans are much closer to the end than they were when training up the young midfielders. I don't think the 30+ brigade HAVE 3 years left in them to complete the youngsters apprenticeships, to compound matters there won't be enough apprenticeships completed at all if we don't find a way of bringing more youngsters into the forward line.

Now, there are a number of other players who have been mentioned, who aren't approaching retirement quite so rapidly. Namely, McGregor, Gill & Stevens.

McGregor is solidly average. He is dependable, and if given the right opportunities could be a decent KPP for us for the next couple of years.

Gill's biggest problem is his kicking. His inaccuracy alone is likely to cost him his place in the team at times. I love his marking, contested and non-contested. I love his desperation when he doesn't have the ball (something missing from McGregor's game). But until he learns to kick straight he will continue to be as much of a liability as he is an asset.

Stevens is capable of pinch hitting at either end of the ground. Ironically, this is more curse than blessing, because he has never become truly established in either role (other than a brief period consistently holding down CHB when Bock was injured). I see him more as a defender, filling the gap likely to be left when Bassett retires at the end of 2008.

The thing is that these guys are all "backboners", none of them tier-one or grade-A material. We want our youngsters, particularly Sellar, Tippett & Walker, to be better than the players they will be replacing. Our young midfielders had some genuine grade-A talent to learn from, without the elite midfielders playing forward the same cannot be said of our young forwards.

 

[Stiffy_18]

Vader, I think you are reading way too much into this. Once the season proper starts, you won't see all of Goodwin, McLeod, Edwards and Bassett up forward. Even McLeod, after our last NAB Cup game said, that if it was a real match he would have played in defence.

Edwards and Goodwin still WILL play in the midfield but might not have the workload that they did in the past. They might be resting a bit more up forward than they normally do. Similarly, Bassett and McLeod will be in defence and they might spend some time forward from time to time but not as full timers.

What Craig is doing in this MMC is experimenting to see if these guys can do some works for him in the forward line. He has no plans to play them there full time nor should he. As good as our midfield has been in NAB Cup, its a different ball game in season proper and Goodwin and Edwards will be needed in there at times this year.

As for the forward line, from what I am "reading from afar" is that we are planning to develop tall forwards this year on rotational basis. For example we might see Tippett and Sellar play 11 games each this year as tall forwards but not the whole seasons. This way in a couple of years time Tippett and Sellar will be capable of taking on a lot more responsibility as key forwards, just in time when the likes of Edwards, Goodwin and McLeod hang their boots up. Then Tippett and Sellar become the anchors of the forward line and the other complementary players such as Jacky and Walker are brought in to supplement Sellar and Tippett just as Sellar and Tippett complemented the likes of Burton, Goodwin, McLeod, Edwards etc....

In the mean time you will see a lot of smaller types rotating through the forward line to give some support such as Thompson, Vince, Douglas, maybe a Reilly, or a Johncock etc...

There are a lot of rotations happening in today's game so I very much doubt that Goodwin, Edwards, McLeod, Bassett etc would ever become full time forwards. Just not going to happen. Craig wants flexibility and players being capable of playing multiple positions. What he is trialing in the NAB Cup is which players can play in which positions and not sticking players in positions that they will necessarily play in come season proper.

 

[Vader]

Vader, I think you are reading way too much into this. Once the season proper starts, you won't see all of Goodwin, McLeod, Edwards and Bassett up forward. Even McLeod, after our last NAB Cup game said, that if it was a real match he would have played in defence.

Edwards and Goodwin still WILL play in the midfield but might not have the workload that they did in the past. They might be resting a bit more up forward than they normally do. Similarly, Bassett and McLeod will be in defence and they might spend some time forward from time to time but not as full timers.

What Craig is doing in this MMC is experimenting to see if these guys can do some works for him in the forward line. He has no plans to play them there full time nor should he. As good as our midfield has been in NAB Cup, its a different ball game in season proper and Goodwin and Edwards will be needed in there at times this year.

As for the forward line, from what I am "reading from afar" is that we are planning to develop tall forwards this year on rotational basis. For example we might see Tippett and Sellar play 11 games each this year as tall forwards but not the whole seasons. This way in a couple of years time Tippett and Sellar will be capable of taking on a lot more responsibility as key forwards, just in time when the likes of Edwards, Goodwin and McLeod hang their boots up. Then Tippett and Sellar become the anchors of the forward line and the other complementary players such as Jacky and Walker are brought in to supplement Sellar and Tippett just as Sellar and Tippett complemented the likes of Burton, Goodwin, McLeod, Edwards etc....

In the mean time you will see a lot of smaller types rotating through the forward line to give some support such as Thompson, Vince, Douglas, maybe a Reilly, or a Johncock etc...

There are a lot of rotations happening in today's game so I very much doubt that Goodwin, Edwards, McLeod, Bassett etc would ever become full time forwards. Just not going to happen. Craig wants flexibility and players being capable of playing multiple positions. What he is trialing in the NAB Cup is which players can play in which positions and not sticking players in positions that they will necessarily play in come season proper.

Very good call. Makes me feel like Chicken Little - "the sky is falling, the sky is falling".

Certainly your points about the rotations is very valid, not something I had really taken into account.

I do have faith in Neil Craig, that he has a plan for the evolution of the team as the veterans depart the scene, heading off into a well earned retirement.

He has pleasantly surprised me with how well the midfield transition has been managed, particularly given that almost none of these new generation players were on the list when he took over (Reilly being the only one of them to have played under Ayers).

I guess he's earned the right, so I should show more faith in his ability to manage the transition of the forward line in a similarly professional and seamless manner.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

There are a lot of rotations happening in today's game so I very much doubt that Goodwin, Edwards, McLeod, Bassett etc would ever become full time forwards. Just not going to happen. Craig wants flexibility and players being capable of playing multiple positions. What he is trialing in the NAB Cup is which players can play in which positions and not sticking players in positions that they will necessarily play in come season proper.

Your spot on with these comments ......think someone said you need up to 10 players going thru midfield rotations in today's game.

With a ruckman on the bench ....you just won't get rotations if you don't use forwards.

With centreline and 1st ruck group you have 5 players ......maybe 1 out of the backline, 3 off the bench ......that accounts for 9 .....so it's very improbable that you could play the hard running game without forwrds rotating thru the midfield.

I do think though that Goodwin (FF) and Macleod (HFF) could be permanent .......just not Edwards.

I have always like Thompson and Reilly changing off a HFF ....theyre both dangerous around goal

Just Imagine Macleod, Goodwin, Burton, Sellar, Tippett, and Thompson/Reilly in our forward 6

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I guess he's earned the right, so I should show more faith in his ability to manage the transition of the forward line in a similarly professional and seamless manner.

My reading is Craig is doing the forward line in stages which is also facilitating his midfield evolution:

1. Developing inexperienced KPP surrounding them for a couple of seasons with experienced players at their feet and coaching them

It has to give the likes of Tippett and Sellar huge confidence in having those guys around.

2. After a couple of seasons we'll have an experienced spine that we can introduce the Walkers, Cook, and Ottens of the world and new draftees .....still using Thompson and Reilly down forwrd for experience.

Iam salivating over the possibilities with Otten as a HFF rotating midfielder

To me it's a well thought out development process

 

[macca23]

Just Imagine Macleod, Goodwin, Burton, Sellar, Tippett, and Thompson/Reilly in our forward 6

Nearly got the jackpot IMO.

Mcgregor will be FF which only leaves room for one of Sellar/Tippett this year.

Craig is very unlikely to play Sellar and Tippet in the same side as key forwards this year. Next year??? Maybe yes.