Fourth Position

[Redgum]

The top 3 teams have their places pretty well locked in. We were 2 games clear and losing to Richmond has us in dangerous territory and only a game clear of WBD. WBD are the danger team and look likely to take our position off us. They have a healthy percentage and we play them in a few weeks time over there. We cannot afford to drop any more games, it would seem very unfair to lose the fourth position as we have held it most of the year. As slim as it may seem compared to the other top 3 teams ,winning a GF from a top four finish is achievable ( + you get two bites at the cherry) but the chances drop dramatically once you are down in 5,6,7 or 8th place.

 

[free at last]

doggies have run as follows

dogs v port (darwin)
dogs v freo H
dogs v roos H
dogs v crows A
dogs v cats H
dogs v swans A
dogs v bombers H

dogs will lose some of those games

 

[Kram]

Massive game in a fortnight.

 

[wild side]

doggies have run as follows

dogs v port (darwin)
dogs v freo H
dogs v roos H
dogs v crows A
dogs v cats H
dogs v swans A
dogs v bombers H

dogs will lose some of those games

I can only see them losing to the Cats tbh.
We could probably lose to WB & Hawks, which would mean they would jump above us on %. Losing Barlow has been critical IMO.
We just can't replace him with other personnel.
He's been pretty much our best player.

 

[Alfonz]

doggies have run as follows

dogs v port (darwin)
dogs v freo H
dogs v roos H
dogs v crows A
dogs v cats H
dogs v swans A
dogs v bombers H

dogs will lose some of those games

The only game they will lose is the Geelong game. Even that, they are not without a chance. Apart from the Freo game, the Dogs will EASILY account for all of those other teams.

Anyway, I think the Dogs will finish 15-7 at worst. We need to finish 16-6 because of our %, which means a loss to the Dogs and winning every single other game, which I just can't see happening.

Of course, beating the Dogs changes everything, but I just can't see how we could possibly win that game the way the teams are playing.

I think we have blown our top 4 chances against Richmond, extremely disappointing and I am still fuming.

 

[SHill Shall]

I think we have blown our top 4 chances against Richmond, extremely disappointing and I am still fuming.

I think you're right here. We're certainly not paying like a top 4 team at the moment - in fact arguably our current form is about sixth best (behind the dogs and hawks).

However, we are still capable of a shock win against the dogs in a fortnight. They come back from Darwin and so the travel factor is roughly equal - the humidity will take a lot out of them and we may just catch them underestimating us. If we beat them, we're right back in the hunt for a top 4 finish (all this assumes we beat Melbourne at Subi of course).

 

[Fairtex]

A fun fact- No team has ever won the week after playing in Darwin... good thing you guys have them the week after

 

[free at last]

The only game they will lose is the Geelong game. Even that, they are not without a chance. Apart from the Freo game, the Dogs will EASILY account for all of those other teams.

Anyway, I think the Dogs will finish 15-7 at worst. We need to finish 16-6 because of our %, which means a loss to the Dogs and winning every single other game, which I just can't see happening.

Of course, beating the Dogs changes everything, but I just can't see how we could possibly win that game the way the teams are playing.

I think we have blown our top 4 chances against Richmond, extremely disappointing and I am still fuming.

i rate us a chance with taz,luke & greg all back.crows v dogs at aami .if the crows are in with a sniff of making the finals.that game becomes a 50/50.swans at home same scenario.

 

[Spoken4]

I am really hoping that Tarrant, McPharlin, Broughton and Mayne can slot back into our team and play at their full potential. We can't risk them taking two or three weeks to get back to form.

As for the Bulldogs, they are more up and down than a yo yo. They could lose potentially any of these games, starting with Port in Darwin. We need to play each game like our place in the four depends on it - cause it does!!!

 

[Frigate]

Held off bigfooty just to make sure I come to my senses before posting. The reality is that we are streched on injury count to the full. Tarrant, McPharlin and Broughton are 3 of our best players and the first choices for position players on form. Add Grover to that mix and the fact Johnson moved back which he has not played for a while (on top of the suspension).

It hurts to mention the B word. Enough Said

Fyfe has been important also and was missed.

So did we let the game slip? Or are we just nearing the pack when our depth is tested? Probably the latter. Full credit to Richmond they never said die. We should have had the game won by 3/4 time tbh.

Top 4 - We need out players back and we need to win games. Enough signs to see at full strength we will cause damage. I think we will be battling to hold 4th sopt though. It is hard to judge how good we are without Barlow. He could cope with the #1 tag and still get 30 possessions + 2 goals.

 

[malpaso]

We need to remember that we still have a young side that although very talented and well-coached will suffer lapses.

I don't think many of us at the start of the season had us in the pecking for a Top 4 berth so while I don't think we'll finish as strong as we started I still think we won't be making up the numbers in the finals.

 

[Rob]

The only game they will lose is the Geelong game. Even that, they are not without a chance. Apart from the Freo game, the Dogs will EASILY account for all of those other teams.

Adelaide at AAMI and Sydney at the SCG will not be easy by any stretch. I'm also hoping North aren't as ordinary as I think they might be.

But you're right, it's all going to come down to 2 weeks. Hopefully Port can at least make them work for the win in the humidity next week.

 

[E Shed]

The bottom line is if we are good enough we'll keep winning. that's all we can do.
We haven't had our best team on the park for some time now and we've battled on.
If the planets align and we all out players back and they can stay fit we will give a decent account of ourselves against anyone.
It's difficult to get a line on our form against all comers because we haven't played Hawks or Dogs yet. Our very best worries Geelong on our deck, Collingwood seem to have our measure and I'm not sure we can topple the Saints.
It all comes down to if we can get our best team on the park.

 

[DockerA]

Fourth position is ours and the WBDs have to take it from us if they want it. As far as I am concerned with Taz, McPharlin,Mayne, Broughton, Fyfe and even Grover & Headland back in we can mix it with the Hawks, Dogs and Blues and can see us winning at least 2/3 of those.

Freo have had their backs to the wall after a few losses this year but have bounced back I expect the same to happen this weekend

 

[Kruges!]

After the Richmond game, I thought our top 4 chances were as good as gone (but I was furious after that game and thought the world had ended). But I think the Dogs can lose to Adelaide, Geelong and if everything goes to plan, Sydney at the SCG (highly doubt it though). This would mean that the game in a fortnight is crucial. Doing that Ladder Predictor thing, I had us finishing 4th after being 5th after the Bulldogs loss. Even if we don't make the 4, we'd likely have a home Elimination Final so things aren't too bad

 

[PapaJ]

After the Richmond game, I thought our top 4 chances were as good as gone (but I was furious after that game and thought the world had ended). But I think the Dogs can lose to Adelaide, Geelong and if everything goes to plan, Sydney at the SCG (highly doubt it though). This would mean that the game in a fortnight is crucial. Doing that Ladder Predictor thing, I had us finishing 4th after being 5th after the Bulldogs loss. Even if we don't make the 4, we'd likely have a home Elimination Final so things aren't too bad

Except we could well end up playing an in form finals hardened Hawthorn or Adelaide. For me its not the Premiership that's the issue, I just think a top 4 spot and 2-3 finals games would be invaluable to our team.

As for the run home, I think our Subi games should be all wins, the away games are a bit tougher. WB at Etihad, Nth at Etihad and then Hawthorn in Tassie. That's not a nice run of away games. We need to protect our home turf starting with this weekend otherwise we're little hope for top 4.

 

[Kruges!]

Except we could well end up playing an in form finals hardened Hawthorn or Adelaide. For me its not the Premiership that's the issue, I just think a top 4 spot and 2-3 finals games would be invaluable to our team.

As for the run home, I think our Subi games should be all wins, the away games are a bit tougher. WB at Etihad, Nth at Etihad and then Hawthorn in Tassie. That's not a nice run of away games. We need to protect our home turf starting with this weekend otherwise we're little hope for top 4.

True, we need a little bit of luck to avoid either of those teams but whats to say Adelaide will even MAKE the finals? FWIW I think they will but they're not there yet. It'd be ideal to play either Sydney, Carlton or North if they make it and if we did draw either of those teams week 1 of finals, I'd feel very comfortable about a win.

I also agree with your 2nd paragraph, here's hoping the Port game in Darwin knocks the stuffing out of the Dogs so we can pounce on them the week after because otherwise, it could turn nasty.

 

[free at last]

Except we could well end up playing an in form finals hardened Hawthorn or Adelaide. For me its not the Premiership that's the issue, I just think a top 4 spot and 2-3 finals games would be invaluable to our team.

As for the run home, I think our Subi games should be all wins, the away games are a bit tougher. WB at Etihad, Nth at Etihad and then Hawthorn in Tassie. That's not a nice run of away games. We need to protect our home turf starting with this weekend otherwise we're little hope for top 4.

With our side looking like this we will get over the top of the Dees

HAYDEN TAZ SILVAGNI

DUFF LUKE IBBO

HILLY MUNDY MORA

FYFE PAV JVB

BALLAS KEP HAZE

SANDI DE BOER PALM


ROBBO RUFFLES JONO PEARCE

 

[aussieviking]

As much as I hate to say this we have exceeded all expectations and I suspect our younger players are starting to drop off the pace.

Unless we get our injured key players get back and playing we will struggle to make four.

Still not many of us would have expected a top 6 finish when the season started. We had a dream run early catching other teams when they are under manned. Now when our run looks easier on paper we are being caught out by much improved sides.

 

[samseenee]

The only game they will lose is the Geelong game. Even that, they are not without a chance. Apart from the Freo game, the Dogs will EASILY account for all of those other teams.

I think we have blown our top 4 chances against Richmond, extremely disappointing and I am still fuming.

Agree whole heartedly Alfonz

Adelaide at AAMI and Sydney at the SCG will not be easy by any stretch. I'm also hoping North aren't as ordinary as I think they might be.

Lets not beat around the bush, North are carp - not West Coast carp but carp none the less.....

 

[Frigate]

Doing the ladder predictor I have the Bulldogs and us on 15 wins. They get 4th on percentage. This is us dropping against BUlldogs and Hawks. The good news is that we could drop another game and still hold 5th on percentage (Hawks have low percentage); or the Hawks would have to win every game from here in.

It is most likely we will play 8th at home which will be either : Sydney, Melbourne, Lions, Adelaide or North. If we can't beat these teams at home then we would have no chance against the big 4 away.

 

[the doc]

Yes the loss to the Tigers has put 4th spot on the line, but so did the loss to Adelaide and the Saints at home.

The difference will be exposing our teams to finals in the comfort of Subi. Either way we have the ability to beat the Bullies and Hawks. If we don't then we do not deserve to have the 4th spot anyway.

Worst case senario would be play the Hawks as a 5 v 8. Considering how all the teams are travelling I see us at 4/5th and the Hawks probably coming in 6th.

Playing the Swans or Calton at home would be fine.

 

[smkwd]

Doing the ladder predictor I have the Bulldogs and us on 15 wins. They get 4th on percentage. This is us dropping against BUlldogs and Hawks. The good news is that we could drop another game and still hold 5th on percentage (Hawks have low percentage); or the Hawks would have to win every game from here in.

This is the Bullies run home:
Rd 16: Port Adelaide at TIO Stadium
Rd 17: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 22: Essendon at Etihad Stadium

On paper, I can't see them winning 6 out of 7 games. North and Adelaide are knockout games for those two teams, and of the others Port and Essendon can surprise.

We have the easier of the two draws, and I think 14 wins will get us over the line.

It is most likely we will play 8th at home which will be either : Sydney, Melbourne, Lions, Adelaide or North. If we can't beat these teams at home then we would have no chance against the big 4 away.

Sydney is the most likely of those 5 to make the 8. And of the others currently in the bottom 1/2 of the 8 (Carlton, Hawks), I reckon 5th spot for us will mean playing Carlton 2 weeks in a row at home. Which will be perfect for us.

 

[Astro_]

A fun fact- No team has ever won the week after playing in Darwin... good thing you guys have them the week after

Didn't the Bulldogs beat 1st placed Adelaide in 2006 the week after playing in Darwin?

 

[Alfonz]

I think people are being very optimistic if they think the Bulldogs are going to drop a few games against the likes of North or Sydney or Adelaide or whoever on the run home. They started to hit their straps on the weekend, and with that form they will destroy the meagre teams left in their fixture.

The way I see it, we have no chance of holding 4th unless we win one of the away games against Hawthorn or the Dogs (and we'd still have to win all of our other games as well).