Preview Geelong V Hawks Mon Apr1 2024 @MCG 320pm

[CatToTheFuture]

Sadly I think Bruhn and Bowes will both miss because of injury.

Conway will play if Stanley is injured if not I can see them playing both.

Presuming that is the case
Out: Stanley, Mullin, Dangerfield
Ins: Conway, Duncan, Atkins

I cannot wait to get Rohan back.

I refuse to believe Bruhn could miss two matches after rolling his ankle in the first against the saints and not only playing out that game but also being one of our better players. It's a 16 day gap!

I will just not acknowledge it as a possibility until ball up Monday

 

[Gunf]

I refuse to believe Bruhn could miss two matches after rolling his ankle in the first against the saints and not only playing out that game but also being one of our better players. It's a 16 day gap!

I will just not acknowledge it as a possibility until ball up Monday

If his injury is more serious than that they lied to us and probably shouldn't have let him play out the match.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

If his injury is more serious than that they lied to us and probably shouldn't have let him play out the match.

If there is the possibility they lied to us then I'm not sure we should even have grounds to be hurt by it anymore.

Fool us twice shame on us

 

[supahoops]

If his injury is more serious than that they lied to us and probably shouldn't have let him play out the match.

And we probably sit 1-1 that’s why you need depth the most important 4 points is the next one available.

 

[Munich]

Is anyone else devo Mullin's going to cut his luscious hair?

 

[standupand]

Is anyone else devo Mullin's going to cut his luscious hair?

You're joking right?

 

[Gunf]

Is anyone else devo Mullin's going to cut his luscious hair?

WTF say it ain't so

 

[Johanpetro]

Is anyone else devo Mullin's going to cut his luscious hair?

Honestly delist worthy

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Is anyone else devo Mullin's going to cut his luscious hair?

Nooooooooo

 

[bombersboy]

I refuse to believe Bruhn could miss two matches after rolling his ankle in the first against the saints and not only playing out that game but also being one of our better players. It's a 16 day gap!

I will just not acknowledge it as a possibility until ball up Monday

I think he will miss because of the 5 day break after. Who would you rather have him against Hawks or Doggies. I want him for the Doggies game. Same goes for Stanley and Bowes.

 

[patience]

Is anyone else devo Mullin's going to cut his luscious hair?

He's What?!?

 

[Johanpetro]

I think he will miss because of the 5 day break after. Who would you rather have him against Hawks or Doggies. I want him for the Doggies game. Same goes for Stanley and Bowes.

He’s 21 years old. He missed one week of footy. He will be fine off a 5 day break

 

[iameviljez]

I don’t think the midfield is quite right with both parfitt and Atkins in there, but you can’t really drop either right now.

I mean... he was decent, but undroppable?

 

[iameviljez]

If his injury is more serious than that they lied to us and probably shouldn't have let him play out the match.

Sometimes things heal a little slower than you think, once you've cooled down.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I mean... he was decent, but undroppable?

I think dropping Parfitt after his effort last week is not a message to the group I'd endorse.

Makes it hard

 

[iameviljez]

I think dropping Parfitt after his effort last week is not a message to the group I'd endorse.

Makes it hard

I disagree, because there are many players capable of putting in a good AFL performance on the list and yet that doesn't make him best 22.

Either you're in the best 22 that's available, or you're not - possession shouldn't be nine tenths of the law.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I disagree, because there are many players capable of putting in a good AFL performance on the list and yet that doesn't make him best 22.

Either you're in the best 22 that's available, or you're not - possession shouldn't be nine tenths of the law.

It's not but I was impressed enough I want to see it again.

 

[bombersboy]

I disagree, because there are many players capable of putting in a good AFL performance on the list and yet that doesn't make him best 22.

Either you're in the best 22 that's available, or you're not - possession shouldn't be nine tenths of the law.

Form should be and his form last week was ok. I think we will need his stronger body this week as well. I do not expect both Bruhn and Bowes to play and I think there is a high likelihood they will both be left till next week.
Ins will be Duncan, Atkins and possibly Conway.
Outs: Dangerfield, Knevitt and possibly Stanley

 

[stac]

I would like to see
Duncan, Atkins, Bowes and Conway.
Outs: Dangerfield, Knevitt, 2E and Stanley
Bowes as sub to get some game time ready for following week

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

I refuse to believe Bruhn could miss two matches after rolling his ankle in the first against the saints and not only playing out that game but also being one of our better players. It's a 16 day gap!

I will just not acknowledge it as a possibility until ball up Monday

He missed last week because he tested positive at the doctors.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

He missed last week because he tested positive at the doctors.

Not the rolled ankle he spent 20 minutes in the rooms for during the game? I think not

 

[Munich]

WTF say it ain't so

Sadly it is.

Check out his instagram.

 

[you pick one]

Sadly it is.

Check out his instagram.

Good on him worthy cause.

 

[Lana]

From a purely observational (and therefore completely unreliable) point of view, hitouts don't matter too much so long as they are a reasonably close contest. 50 hitouts to 35 or 40 aren't going to be a big determinant of a game, whereas a similar differential in i50s or clearances is almost insurmountable.

But it's when one ruckman starts beating the other to the point of predictably winning the hitout, that changes the game because it changes how the two sides set up.

We know from many negative experiences post Ottens that a dominant ruckman can turn a single game, but the numbers say that in aggregate it isn't generally that influential across all of the games.

It’s been a few years since I looked at this in detail but essentially most ruckmen were plus minus 5 percent above the mean in terms of generating hitouts to advantage. Gawn and Naitanui and Witts to a lesser extent were the only three that you could conclusively say had an advantage, Most other match ups had the expected result would be that they would neutralize each other than that luck on the day would separate the pair of ruckmen.

Now that's not to say we should put Neale in the ruck, as the data comes from AFL ruckmen vs other AFL ruckmen. But it explains why the model doesn't value hitouts that much.

 

[Lana]

Stats from CD are nice to have but without actually watching a game they are meaningless.

I have seen them give Stewart bottom 5 players on the ground from the system and yet he was nowhere near that bad.

The system weighs some stats more than others and lower some that should be higher but one of the things it cannot measure is footy IQ which is a huge reason some players are elite instead of average or average instead of a spud or even the reverse players that should be elite or average being worse due to no footy IQ.

It comes down to what the model values, I was following a Stewart game where he got 25 odd disposal and there were a lot of people who felt he was close to bog. But when you dived into the stats, he had like 4 CP, and only a couple of intercept possessions(none marks) which is why the model didn't like his game.

The model values possessions that change who has the ball and possessions that surpass expectation (kicking difficult goals, repeatedly hitting a target I50, repeatedly hitting the target with contested possessions etc) . It doesn't care for a player racking up a bunch of uncontested possessions and then hitting the target as that is what is expected.

What makes Stewart Stewart is that he racks up heaps of intercept possessions which is why generally the Model loves him, He was his exceeding expected performance by around 40% for the last four years, probably puts him in the first few ranks for medium defenders. Doesn't take as much talent to be a seagull off half back on the fat side and rack up 450 metres gained and 20 uncontested possessions.