General AFL Discussion #8 - Carlton Supporters ONLY !!!

[HARKER]

Some people never learn...

Bombers will make the 8 and are giving themselves every chance to make the top 4.

I see Essendon doing well to finish 7th. or 8th.
They have a very difficult draw in the second half of the season.

 

[Jeremias]

I see Essendon doing well to finish 7th. or 8th.
They have a very difficult draw in the second half of the season.

They are sitting now at 5-1, and consider them close to certainties in another 4.

That will give them 9 wins, needing to win at least 3 of their other 12 games to ensure they feature in September.

I can see them dropping off at some stage this season, but I think they are just about certainties to make finals.

I hate Essendon with a passion, and not much would please me more than to see them fall into a heap. I'd love them to miss the finals but I just can't see it happening. They've started 2012 in fantastic fashion and deserve some credit for what they've managed to put on the board to date.

 

[HARKER]

I hate Essendon with a passion, and not much would please me more than to see them fall into a heap. I'd love them to miss the finals but I just can't see it happening. They've started 2012 in fantastic fashion and deserve some credit for what they've managed to put on the board to date.

No one knows for sure as to what will open up, but Geelong and Collingwood are one game behind and Hawthorn are currently 2 behind.
Geelong, Hawthorn and Collingwood look more than likely to win this weekend and if Essendon lose to West Coast, all of a sudden things look very different and the talk won't be anywhere near as strong for Essendon.

I thought Essendon had an average list at the start of the season and even though they pulled down our pants, I can't see why that fact should change.
If Davey and Jetta continue to gun it the way they did against Brisbane, then even the most hardened of Essendon supporters may just be a little bit surprised.

Anyway, only time will tell.

 

[40yearBLUE]

I see Essendon doing well to finish 7th. or 8th.
They have a very difficult draw in the second half of the season.

Wow Jerry's insightful whipping. Ouch.

Lets look at the draw intelligently Harks.

The gloss will well and truly be buffed off this week against WC. Ess Loss.

Then they could go 2 in a row v Tigers but they are equally woeful so you just never know. Lets give it to Ess just so no-one can accuse me of bias.

Then 2 guaranteed wins v GWS and Melb (who it appears have retained Bailey on the sly to advise them of the best way to snag Viney).

Then they lose again to Sydney. Lets say they beat the Tigers to turn at the bye with 8/3, looking great for a top 4 finish. Hmm not unlike our run the year before last.....7/4 at the turn, how did that work out can you remember?

Then the fun really starts I think.

Freo in WA - loss
Bulldogs - win
StK - loss
Port in SA - I will give it to Ess win
Geel - loss
Hawks - loss
Adel in SA - loss
NM - loss (on a roll now)
Carl - I think we might win that one -loss
Rich - after 5 losses in a row could go either way - loss
Coll - loss

So from 8/3 (or 7/4 if the Tigers get up) they finish with 3 maybe 4 more wins for the year so maybe 11 maybe 12 wins and they might sneak into the 8.

I did this exersize pre season, I didnt have them winning in RD 1 v Nth, nor Rd 4 v us. So credit where due they will end up winning 2 more than I credited them for, barring upsets. If they lose to Port or the Bulldogs then they are back out of the 8. And I am giving them and tigers 1 win each, if Tigers win both and they lose to Bulldogs and Port then they finish with about 8 wins for the year and 10th or 9th.

Yep no logic in my thinking at all. Just pure vitriol, thanks Jerry.

Edit, looking again at that draw, there is the possibility they could be winless after the bye. Wouldnt that be a hoot.

 

[Jeremias]

Your opinions on Essendon should be banned here after your ridiculous and lunatic rantings prior to round 4.

You want to look at their draw intelligently? I'd suggest the first step towards achieving that is to try putting your hatred of them aside for a second.

Essendon are a realistic chance of beating West Coast this weekend. There's no doubt about it. I will most likely tip West Coast but the result is not a fait accompli. Essendon will fancy their chances and rightly so, for various reasons. I'd go into them if I was discussing this with someone who has shown an ability to be rational, but with you, there's just no point.

Essendon are a significantly better side than Richmond, and honestly arguing to the contrary would prove a serious lack of understanding of where both sides are at - or simply a propensity to troll.

I agree with you that GWS and Melbourne are certain wins.

Sydney and Essendon games are generally tight fought contests and I expect their upcoming match to be no different. I don't remember the last time Sydney beat Essendon in Melbourne, it would have been years ago. We learned yesterday that Goodes will be out for 6 weeks, so advantage Essendon. At worst, a genuine 50/50 game.

That takes us to the end of round 11. They enter each game they play up to that point in the season with a genuine chance of walking away with a positive result. That's not to say they will win every game, but there's no 'gimme losses'.

I'm predicting an 8-3 record come round 11.

After the bye is very hard to predict what will happen, but I'm prepared to concede they will likely lose two of their three away games - Freo in Peth, and Adelaide in Adelaide. The Bombers aren't a side that travels well so I'll mark them down as losses. I do expect them to be able to account for Port Adelaide who are not far from hopeless.

They have a tough back end of the season but they've shown they can be more than competitive against the top sides so they aren't without a chance. Likely losses to Carlton, Geelong, Hawthorn and Collingwood, but history suggests that they can more than hold their own against these sides. Would not surprise me in the slightest to see Essendon win one, or even two of these games.

Bulldogs, St Kilda, North Melbourne and Richmond are their other 4 games. I consider Essendon to be a better side than all of them, so I expect Essendon to win the majority of those games. They'll likely slip up at some stage but they should account for their opponents in these games.

Winless after the bye? You are having a laugh.

That's just a simplistic way of looking at their upcoming fixture and of course not necessarily an accurate way of observing their season. I don't expect them to continue their winning form throughout the entire season, as not even the best of sides can do that.

I do expect them, however, to continue to prove you wrong. They are far from a great side, but they are a good team giving themselves every chance of featuring when it matters most. I tipped them for the 8 at the start of the year and nothing I've seen suggests I should be wavering from that opinion. Given the way the season looks to be progressing, I wouldn't be totally shocked to see them sneak into the top 4. However, the bottom half of the top 8 is far more likely.

I'd be absolutely amazed if they missed out on playing in September. Hate them all you want, believe me I despise them too. But credit has to be given where it's due, and right now they deserve credit for the way they've performed to this stage of the season. After all, they're 5-1 and sitting in 4th place on the ladder.

And don't call me Jerry.

 

[40yearBLUE]

Just as I thought.....crickets from Jerry once the oneliners ended and some serious opinions are put forward from other posters that dont have 40 in their names. Edit my apoligies Jerry, you were typing as I was.

Just for fun, lets look at another team that is 5/1.

Next up Saints at Ethihad, should win but not a gimme
Then Adel also at Ethihad, last year we won this with a Rusty goal just before full time but we should win.
Then Melb for a percentage boost, no resting this time and if Freo can hand WC their first loss we go top.
Port at AAMI doesnt usually trouble us so that makes it 6 wins in a row in the lead up to our toughest month of footy in a decade. With top 4 expectations we face the other top 4 aspirants on the trot.
Geelong, WC in Perth, Hawks and Pies. Lets say we can win half of these. That brings us to 12/3.
Then we should win the next 3 against Nth (always a tough game but we should win) Bulldogs (beat us last year but are now shot) and Richmond again at the G for 15/3.
Then the last 5 ought to be a coast home with only Sydney to raise a sweat about (other 4 are Essendon second time around, 2 factors, the get even for RD4 and their season will already be long over, GWS and Brisbane (we rest players for these 2) and Saints in the final round, and again they will probably be out of contention by then.

I think we will finish first or second, depending on how long WC keep winning with their injury list. I think the air will start to come out of Sydney, especially with Goodes injured. I know the air will come out of Essendon. The cream will rise, I expect Carlton and WC to fight out top spot, Collingwood, Geelong and Hawks to fight out the next 3, then Freo, Sydney to round out the top 7. 8th is anybodies or nobodies (as it was last year). Probably Essendon given they got up against us and North, or North as they have a good percentage. And you cant discount Adelaide from sneaking in although I doubt it.

Its all very well saying Essendon are this or that, but if you put them into your top 4 or top 8 then who are you suggesting wont get there? If you have us in your 4 and them in your 4 and WC then you are saying only one from Geel, Hawks and Pies will make it.

Unless you are suggesting we wont make it?

 

[Tanks_Alot]

40paragraphBLUE has returned, grab the popcorn folks.

BTW, they'll beat St.Kilda and Sydney without Goodes. I'd also be inclined to give them the win against West Coast if NicNat doesn't play. Let's remember they are travelling quite far from Perth to Melbourne and they almost got done by the Tigers who (according to you) haven't improved at all.

Freo in WA - loss
Bulldogs - win
StK - win
Port in SA - I will give it to Ess win how kind of you
Geel - 50/50 - They beat them last year at Etihad and the Cats aren't travelling as well as they were.
Hawks - loss
Adel in SA - loss
NM - loss (on a roll now) - bullshit, this is at least another 50/50 game
Carl - I think we should win that one -loss
Rich - after 5 losses in a row could go either way - loss So every 50/50 game you've given them a loss. LOL
Coll - loss

The only thing that could keep them out of the 8 is Adelaide and/or North because of their default 4 wins due to playing GC and GWS twice.

My top 8 after the ladder predictor:

WCE
CARL
SYD
HAW
GEEL
COLL
FRE
ADEL

9th NTH MELB but only on %
10th ESS because of the harder draw they'll have

 

[40yearBLUE]

40paragraphBLUE has returned, grab the popcorn folks.

BTW, they'll beat St.Kilda and Sydney without Goodes. I'd also be inclined to give them the win against West Coast if NicNat doesn't play. Let's remember they are travelling quite far from Perth to Melbourne and they almost got done by the Tigers who (according to you) haven't improved at all.

Freo in WA - loss
Bulldogs - win
StK - win
Port in SA - I will give it to Ess win how kind of you
Geel - 50/50 - They beat them last year at Etihad and the Cats aren't travelling as well as they were.
Hawks - loss
Adel in SA - loss
NM - loss (on a roll now) - bullshit, this is at least another 50/50 game
Carl - I think we should win that one -loss
Rich - after 5 losses in a row could go either way - loss So every 50/50 game you've given them a loss. LOL
Coll - loss

The only thing that could keep them out of the 8 is Adelaide and/or North because of their default 4 wins due to playing GC and GWS twice.

My top 8 after the ladder predictor:

WCE
CARL
SYD
HAW
GEEL
COLL
FRE
ADEL

9th NTH MELB but only on %
10th ESS because of the harder draw they'll have

Ahh Jumpsintobecontraryto40_Alot.....you can always be relied upon to try to find any reason to argue with me, even though, you end up with the same result.....Ess 10th. What exactly is your point again?

 

[Jeremias]

Carlton? I said prior to the season that if we're serious about mounting a challenge we should be 9-2 come the end of round 11, 8-3 at worst. And it looks as though we're on track to make that a reality - but as we know, things can change so, so quickly.

We were shocking against the Bombers but as far as the above calculation goes, that was offset by our win against the Pies.

Next up Saints at Ethihad, should win but not a gimme

Correct. We're a better side than St Kilda and the injuries to McEvoy and Fisher help us enormously. I expect a win but the Saints still have some quality footballers and must not be taken lightly.

Then Adel also at Ethihad, last year we won this with a Rusty goal just before full time but we should win.

Credit has to go to Adelaide for the way they've looked to bounce back after a poor showing last season, but again, we are a better side and at home I expect that to be reflected on the scoreboard.

Then Melb for a percentage boost, no resting this time and if Freo can hand WC their first loss we go top.

Melbourne is as close to a gimme as the GWS game was. I'd certainly be exploring the option to rest players as we did on Sunday. I expect the likes of Murphy & Scotland, and potentially even Henderson, to come under some consideration for the week off.

Port at AAMI doesnt usually trouble us so that makes it 6 wins in a row in the lead up to our toughest month of footy in a decade. With top 4 expectations we face the other top 4 aspirants on the trot.

Port started the year in a competitive fashion but have dropped off. Very ordinary side, and one we should be looking to take care of quite convincingly. Still, interstate games always concern me that little bit extra but yes we should win and win well.

Geelong, WC in Perth, Hawks and Pies. Lets say we can win half of these. That brings us to 12/3.

This is the stretch that will define our season, and tell us how far we've really come as a team. Crucial period. For various reasons I don't fear any of these 4 sides as much as I did heading in to the season, but they all remain quality sides capable of brilliance. Drop our guard and we could comfortably go 0-4 but I don't expect us to. If we can split the games I feel we'll have done well. I expect us to win 2 of them, but identifying which ones is impossible.

Then we should win the next 3 against Nth (always a tough game but we should win) Bulldogs (beat us last year but are now shot) and Richmond again at the G for 15/3.

North always trouble us and we can't afford to take them lightly. They have gone close to us for a while now and no doubt they will fancy their chances. But again, we're the better side and I expect that to show.

The Dogs are crap. I tipped them for the bottom 4 and whilst that may not eventuate, it doesn't look like it will be too far off the mark. Easy win here.

Richmond struggle against us, that's no secret - and it's no coincidence. Their backline shits itself under pressure and that's been a huge reason why we've been so successful against them in recent times. I expect that trend to continue, but the Tigers are improving.

Then the last 5 ought to be a coast home with only Sydney to raise a sweat about (other 4 are Essendon second time around, 2 factors, the get even for RD4 and their season will already be long over, GWS and Brisbane (we rest players for these 2) and Saints in the final round, and again they will probably be out of contention by then.

Sydney in Sydney I wouldn't be so confident about, but from this far out, at home I'll be going with us. Can't speak highly enough about the Swans, but. Quality side that just keep on keeping on, and can never be discounted.

Clearly I'm not as convinced as you that Essendon's season will be over by the time we meet them later in the year, as I see it it's a 50/50 game. Form very rarely matters when we play them. We'll be confident though and we'll be out for revenge.

Not concerned in the slightest about Brisbane here, and we'll more than likely take a significantly weakened side to Queensland to face GC. Win on both counts, for sure.

We may well be vying for a home final come round 24 and I expect St Kilda's season to be cooked at that stage, so this far out I'd say we'll likely win.

I think we will finish first or second, depending on how long WC keep winning with their injury list. I think the air will start to come out of Sydney, especially with Goodes injured. I know the air will come out of Essendon. The cream will rise, I expect Carlton and WC to fight out top spot, Collingwood, Geelong and Hawks to fight out the next 3, then Freo, Sydney to round out the top 7. 8th is anybodies or nobodies (as it was last year). Probably Essendon given they got up against us and North, or North as they have a good percentage. And you cant discount Adelaide from sneaking in although I doubt it.

Its all very well saying Essendon are this or that, but if you put them into your top 4 or top 8 then who are you suggesting wont get there? If you have us in your 4 and them in your 4 and WC then you are saying only one from Geel, Hawks and Pies will make it.

I'm not putting them in my top 4, but I'm saying they can't be totally discounted. I certainly have them in my 8. I've never said they will make the top 4, I've said they're putting themselves in a position where it isn't totally out of the question.

At the start of the year, the 8 teams I expected to feature in September were, in no order:

Carlton
Collingwood
Essendon
Geelong
Hawthorn
Sydney
West Coast
St Kilda

I expected the top 4 to be Hawthorn, Collingwood, Geelong and Carlton in that order, with us pushing out West Coast.

At this stage I'd probably only make one change to that final 8. I don't think St Kilda will make it, and I expect one of North Melbourne or Adelaide to take their spot.

Fremantle aren't in my September calculations. Very ordinary side but then again Ross Lyon took a St Kilda squad that fell away in talent very quickly to 3 grand finals in 2 years so they can't be totally ruled out.

I'd say there are now two top 4 certainties, being West Coast and Carlton. The other two spots in that top 4 remain up in the air, largely due to a few sides performing above expectations (Essendon, Sydney, West Coast) to this point in time, and a few performing below expectations (Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn). Collingwood, Hawthorn and Geelong have performed below the level I expected them to and they leave themselves open to being beaten to a top 4 berth. I still expect two of them to make it though. At this stage I'd put Hawthorn in there, with Collingwood and Geelong to fight it out for that final top 4 spot. Amazing to think that, considering they were last years premiers and runners up.

Unless you are suggesting we wont make it?

Not at all. Clear certainties to make the 8 despite our indifferent form during the preseason, and as I've said I expected us to make the top 4 but only just. Our performances to this point in the season, coupled with the performances of other sides that I saw us seriously competing against for a top 4 spot leave me in no doubt we'll make the top 4. Serious premiership contenders? For me it's still a dream and one I can't quite translate to a reality. But if we make the top 4 then we've of course got a serious chance.

 

[Tanks_Alot]

Ahh Jumpsintobecontraryto40_Alot.....you can always be relied upon to try to find any reason to argue with me, even though, you end up with the same result.....Ess 10th. What exactly is your point again?

You're giving a side that tbh dismantled us absolutely no credit whatsoever.

Your reasoning for them to not make the 8 was because you think they're going to lose the majority of their remaining matches including against the Saints and Swans who they have a very good record against especially down here and no Goodes.

You've pencilled in losses to Geelong and North Melbourne, both are 50/50 games and then the second against Richmond is also a 50/50 but you again elect to award them another loss.

My reasoning is because North and Adelaide will have 4 default wins which is what makes it hard for them to make the 8 but not because they're shit. They can definitely make the 8 if they beat the Eagles this week and win all of their 50/50's

 

[The Toad]

You're giving a side that tbh dismantled us absolutely no credit whatsoever.

Your reasoning for them to not make the 8 was because you think they're going to lose the majority of their remaining matches including against the Saints and Swans who they have a very good record against especially down here and no Goodes.

You've pencilled in losses to Geelong and North Melbourne, both are 50/50 games and then the second against Richmond is also a 50/50 but you again elect to award them another loss.

My reasoning is because North and Adelaide will have 4 default wins which is what makes it hard for them to make the 8 but not because they're shit. They can definitely make the 8 if they beat the Eagles this week and win all of their 50/50's

Youi should change you're user name to Jumpsintobecontraryto40_Alot
Sounds pretty good really.

 

[40yearBLUE]

Doing the Baileys as we speak. I have Essendon dropping out by rd 11 and climbing back into the 8 after their win over port, but alas, from there they finish 10th or 12th depending on who wins when Ess play Rich in rd22 (by then neither can make the 8).

I have Carlton finishing top with 3 losses and WC second with 4 (but I have us just pipping them mid year so that can reverse if they beat us). Then Hawks by % and then Cats and Pies also seperated by %. Sydney 6th, Nth 7th, Freo sneak into 8th then Adelaide.

Just cant find a spot for Essendon despite their seemingly good start. They will fall away big time, just as we did 2 years ago and they did last year. They had a similar start last year and were 4th at Round 8 then didnt win a game for 2 months. At the end of Rd14 they were 10th.

From 4th to 10th in 8 weeks. Their run home is much harder this year and that happened to them last year so why would I have any reason to believe that it wont again?

 

[ESKIE]

Factor injuries to some of their top players, watson, stanton or fletcher, this could happen and will affect their results, fletcher in particular, he has saved so many games for them..
Personally i think they,ll make the 8....

Expect them to run out of gas as well

Lloyd,s article today in the age is ludicrous, top 4 and flag contenders, thanks lloydy keep it up you twit.

Can,t wait to play them again

 

[Aphrodite]

Factor injuries to some of their top players, watson, stanton or fletcher, this could happen and will affect their results, fletcher in particular, he has saved so many games for them..
Personally i think they,ll make the 8....

Expect them to run out of gas as well

Lloyd,s article today in the age is ludicrous, top 4 and flag contenders, thanks lloydy keep it up you twit.

Can,t wait to play them again

One blue chip midfielder short of competing for a premiership.

 

[Tanks_Alot]

Doing the Baileys as we speak. I have Essendon dropping out by rd 11 and climbing back into the 8 after their win over port, but alas, from there they finish 10th or 12th depending on who wins when Ess play Rich in rd22 (by then neither can make the 8).

I have Carlton finishing top with 3 losses and WC second with 4 (but I have us just pipping them mid year so that can reverse if they beat us). Then Hawks by % and then Cats and Pies also seperated by %. Sydney 6th, Nth 7th, Freo sneak into 8th then Adelaide.

Just cant find a spot for Essendon despite their seemingly good start. They will fall away big time, just as we did 2 years ago and they did last year. They had a similar start last year and were 4th at Round 8 then didnt win a game for 2 months. At the end of Rd14 they were 10th.

From 4th to 10th in 8 weeks. Their run home is much harder this year and that happened to them last year so why would I have any reason to believe that it wont again?

Did you tip them to lose against St Kilda and Sydney?

 

[Just Kreuzing]

One blue chip midfielder short of competing for a premiership.

Seen that, good luck finding one before September, mid season draft......

 

[Just Kreuzing]

Doing the Baileys as we speak. I have Essendon dropping out by rd 11 and climbing back into the 8 after their win over port, but alas, from there they finish 10th or 12th depending on who wins when Ess play Rich in rd22 (by then neither can make the 8).

I have Carlton finishing top with 3 losses and WC second with 4 (but I have us just pipping them mid year so that can reverse if they beat us). Then Hawks by % and then Cats and Pies also seperated by %. Sydney 6th, Nth 7th, Freo sneak into 8th then Adelaide.

Just cant find a spot for Essendon despite their seemingly good start. They will fall away big time, just as we did 2 years ago and they did last year. They had a similar start last year and were 4th at Round 8 then didnt win a game for 2 months. At the end of Rd14 they were 10th.

From 4th to 10th in 8 weeks. Their run home is much harder this year and that happened to them last year so why would I have any reason to believe that it wont again?

I think % is going to be vital this year after doing the ladder predictor recently, thats why we need to reap the rewards when we get to play GWS and Melb etc, missed a huge chunk of it on the weekend through complacency and poor skills from a few of our reserves players!!!

 

[40yearBLUE]

I think % is going to be vital this year after doing the ladder predictor recently, thats why we need to reap the rewards when we get to play GWS and Melb etc, missed a huge chunk of it on the weekend through complacency and poor skills from a few of our reserves players!!!

I agree % will be important especially if it decides say 2nd from 3rd or 3rd from 4th depending on where WC finish because if they finish top then 4th goes over there. Its a very close season this year with no 2 stand out teams, more like about 5 or 6.

Having said that I dont think it will effect us so much as I think we will finish 1st or 2nd so we will get the home final no matter.

But if we drop another game we are expected to win then yes % will be fairly critical.

I dont think our % is too shabby right now though do you? We might have got a 100 point win instead of 67 at the weekend but we got a 60point win against the Pies. Who would have picked that, I would have been happy to win by a kick preseason. So its swings and slides. And we have the added bonus of having given a rest to some of our more indispensable players in Waite and Judd.

The Essendon loss will rank as our most disappointing for the year (as was our draw against them last year and the early season loss to them the year before and I have no doubt we will return it with interest the second time around as we did last year and the year before).

I think we will lose 2 or 3 more but they will be against top ranked opponents (WC, Hawks, Cats or Pies second time around, I think we will beat the Cats just and lose to the Pies just) and all will be close games so I dont see our % falling much if at all and I see at least another 5 games we will win by 10 goals or more, some by the 100 points (We still have Melb, GC, Brisbane, Port and Bulldogs and on paper none of these sides should get within 10 goals of us).

 

[40yearBLUE]

Did you tip them to lose against St Kilda and Sydney?

In my Baileys they finish 2 games out of the 8 but if they lose to Richmond in Rd22 then 3 games out and Richmond 2 games out with Saints between them on the ladder and Adelaide ahead of them in 9th a game behind Nth in 8th, so it doesnt much matter. I cant remember if I tipped them to beat Saints but I do tip Swans to beat them I do remember that. Swans even without Goodes are a better team than them. Saints not so much, but they do have a better spread of talent than Essendon albeit it is ageing talent and is now hot and cold. One week Milne is an 6 goal small the next is missing completely. Same with Roo, but this is a team that still has Lenny Hayes, Brendon Goddard, Montagna, Del Santo, Fisher (although just injured), and Kozi, who I dont rate so highly but is still dangerous on his day, even Sam Gilbert can be dangerous. There problem is they now have a poor bottom 6 and a lot of journeymen players in their mid 6 and it is now rare they all show up on the same day. But if they do, they blow sides like Essendon away.

But what is your point. You still dont seem to have one.

It doesnt matter dude, they wont make it. You dont have them making it either. SO WHAT IS YOUR POINT. You say it is because you have Nth and Adel having default wins against the expansion sides, but if Nth and Adel win and SO do Ess that round so what, its no gain. You must have Essendon losing the requisite number of games to miss out, no matter who Adel and Nth get to play. Its flawed logic. I have Essendon not winning enough games to make the 8, so do you, so remind me again what is your point.

 

[Stamos]

Anyone know what the go was with the "Little League" on Sunday?
It's pretty strange to see blokes (and girls) in their 30s running round in a match which is meant to be for Auskickers.

 

[Jeremias]

Factor injuries to some of their top players, watson, stanton or fletcher, this could happen and will affect their results, fletcher in particular, he has saved so many games for them..
Personally i think they,ll make the 8....

Expect them to run out of gas as well

Lloyd,s article today in the age is ludicrous, top 4 and flag contenders, thanks lloydy keep it up you twit.

Can,t wait to play them again

Of course injuries could occur and could significantly affect their results, but could the same not be said for every other side in the competition?

If we lost Jamison, Judd or Murphy for the season, would we not suffer as a result?

What about Geelong with Selwood, Bartel and Stevie J?

Collingwood with Cloke, Swan and Pendlebury? One could easily argue it's already happening to the Pies who have suffered a number of serious injuries.

Hawthorn with Franklin, Rioli and Mitchell?

Take any key player out of any side, no matter if they're 1st or 18th, and they'll likely struggle to cover for them fully.

That the Eagles have managed to continue winning despite a number of key players is a marvel, and probably testament to just how sound their structures are. I have no doubt that at some stage the loss of key personnel will affect them significantly but when that will be, we just don't know. One more injury and you'd think they may just struggle to show the competition what they've got, which is a shame.

To discount Essendon's chances of progressing based on a hypothetical injury or three doesn't sit right with me at all. That's not a situation that Essendon may face exclusively.

Essendon have a pretty significant injury list at the moment and their performances don't seem to be suffering too much as a result, either.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

I agree % will be important especially if it decides say 2nd from 3rd or 3rd from 4th depending on where WC finish because if they finish top then 4th goes over there. Its a very close season this year with no 2 stand out teams, more like about 5 or 6.

Having said that I dont think it will effect us so much as I think we will finish 1st or 2nd so we will get the home final no matter.

But if we drop another game we are expected to win then yes % will be fairly critical.

I dont think our % is too shabby right now though do you? We might have got a 100 point win instead of 67 at the weekend but we got a 60point win against the Pies. Who would have picked that, I would have been happy to win by a kick preseason. So its swings and slides. And we have the added bonus of having given a rest to some of our more indispensable players in Waite and Judd.

The Essendon loss will rank as our most disappointing for the year (as was our draw against them last year and the early season loss to them the year before and I have no doubt we will return it with interest the second time around as we did last year and the year before).

I think we will lose 2 or 3 more but they will be against top ranked opponents (WC, Hawks, Cats or Pies second time around, I think we will beat the Cats just and lose to the Pies just) and all will be close games so I dont see our % falling much if at all and I see at least another 5 games we will win by 10 goals or more, some by the 100 points (We still have Melb, GC, Brisbane, Port and Bulldogs and on paper none of these sides should get within 10 goals of us).

I am hoping you are right there and think if we can mature and not take games lightly we will be in a position to win enough games to finish in the top 2 barring serious injuries etc (touch wood)...

The thing that I can see happening is the Eagles finish either 1st or 2nd and get a home game against either one of the Pies, Hawks, Cats and this will become a 70-30 game in terms of % chance to win and we might have a home final against a cross town rival and have a 50% winning chance to progress to a home preliminary final.

I would love to see 2 Vic teams finish top 2 as long 1 of them is us as it increases our chances of progressing to the prelim/grand final without threat of another interstate final.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

Of course injuries could occur and could significantly affect their results, but could the same not be said for every other side in the competition?

If we lost Jamison, Judd or Murphy for the season, would we not suffer as a result?

What about Geelong with Selwood, Bartel and Stevie J?

Collingwood with Cloke, Swan and Pendlebury? One could easily argue it's already happening to the Pies who have suffered a number of serious injuries.

Hawthorn with Franklin, Rioli and Mitchell?

Take any key player out of any side, no matter if they're 1st or 18th, and they'll likely struggle to cover for them fully.

That the Eagles have managed to continue winning despite a number of key players is a marvel, and probably testament to just how sound their structures are. I have no doubt that at some stage the loss of key personnel will affect them significantly but when that will be, we just don't know. One more injury and you'd think they may just struggle to show the competition what they've got, which is a shame.

To discount Essendon's chances of progressing based on a hypothetical injury or three doesn't sit right with me at all. That's not a situation that Essendon may face exclusively.

Essendon have a pretty significant injury list at the moment and their performances don't seem to be suffering too much as a result, either.

They have great structures and a great game plan because they have depth of players with the right body shape and size to cover for each other. How many teams can lose players the size of Kennedy and Naitanui and just call upon Darling, Lynch or Cox to not only take their positions but be as equally influential in these positional roles. They have great discipline and understanding to do what the game plan requires allowing the team to not have to change the way they need to go about it. Also lose Lecras and Nickoski and replace them with players like Hill and Hams who are both having breakout years atm.

I think the most under rated aspect of the Eagles is their size and strength all over the ground, their midfield are full of big strong hard bodies as is their defense with Waters, Glass and Hurn.

 

[40yearBLUE]

I am hoping you are right there and think if we can mature and not take games lightly we will be in a position to win enough games to finish in the top 2 barring serious injuries etc (touch wood)...

The thing that I can see happening is the Eagles finish either 1st or 2nd and get a home game against either one of the Pies, Hawks, Cats and this will become a 70-30 game in terms of % chance to win and we might have a home final against a cross town rival and have a 50% winning chance to progress to a home preliminary final.

I would love to see 2 Vic teams finish top 2 as long 1 of them is us as it increases our chances of progressing to the prelim/grand final without threat of another interstate final.

If you finish 1st or 2nd your first final (qualifying) is at home, the winner of those gets a home prelim. I still think we will play Hawks in the GF and will need to beat either Pies or Cats in at least one of the finals may even face them both, say Cats in quali Pies in prelim but the way they are losing players its hard to say. Another favourable scenario is playing Sydney on the MCG, but they are a great lock down pressure side that wins ugly and not sure I would like that as much as a shoot out against the Pies or Cats. I dont think we will play WC in a final this year and if we do it will be in a prelim over here, but think they will be in the other half of the finals draw and lose their prelim to the Hawks.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

If you finish 1st or 2nd your first final (qualifying) is at home, the winner of those gets a home prelim. I still think we will play Hawks in the GF and will need to beat either Pies or Cats in at least one of the finals may even face them both, say Cats in quali Pies in prelim but the way they are losing players its hard to say. Another favourable scenario is playing Sydney on the MCG, but they are a great lock down pressure side that wins ugly and not sure I would like that as much as a shoot out against the Pies or Cats. I dont think we will play WC in a final this year and if we do it will be in a prelim over here, but think they will be in the other half of the finals draw and lose their prelim to the Hawks.

Fully understand how the finals system works.

My scenario is for arguements sake:

Eagles 1st vs Cats 4th, Eagles prob 70-30 chance of winning that game.

Blues 2nd Vs Pies 3rd, 50/50 game with the loser needing to progress to the Grand Final via the Eagles in a prelim in WA if they did win the week later prob against the Swans or Ess or somebody very dangerous.

Love the Blues to finish top 2 and Eagles and Swans finish 3rd to 6th to alleviate any chance of an interstate final this year.