General Markets Talk
- Thread starter Jimmy_the_Gent
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Plenty of rumours about Credit Suisse doing the rounds.
- Mar 24, 2018
- 554
- 1,051
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
Yeah seen a bit about this not just from the usual scare mongers. Be a test for the financial system if it does, can they actually unwind a big back and has any of the Basel regulation had any affect
- Apr 10, 2017
- 2,375
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And Deutsche
- Oct 9, 2006
- 22,755
- 29,519
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
- Other Teams
- Super Tottenham....from the Lane.
Michael Burry may just have known exactly what he was talking about mate. We have learned nothing and it is probably about to happen all over again. Credit Suisse might be about to go **** up and that would cause a massive reaction to global markets. You cannot say we were not warned. Loan enough money to people who can't pay it back and this is what happens.
*Deutsche Bank also in trouble.
- Jun 14, 2013
- 13,076
- 15,685
- AFL Club
- Essendon
My main issue with Burry is that he sees doom everywhere and seemingly at all times. You make more money in the long run being a dumb bull than a smart bear.
He deleted his Twitter account last year after copping ridicule for some bad calls, so it's pretty much a flip of a coin with him.
I agree with you the market looks horrible. There are others who give more objective and accurate perspective at all stages of market cycles. Those like Burry tend to marry their bias.
Burry's thoughts are well worth reading but you of course have to take it with plenty of grains of salt, not sure what positions he has atm but he of course often being very short on parts of the market has a vested interest in being negative to the extreme.
ASX200 3.75%
Bear market rallies can be some of the strongest, might be an opportunity to raise some more cash.
Bear market rallies can be some of the strongest, might be an opportunity to raise some more cash.
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RandB
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 9, 2007
- 16,916
- 13,265
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
- Other Teams
- MUFC Norwood
I was so close to loading up yesterday on CXO at $1.02 but I hesitated. Now I hate myself. Not sure it will go that low again given the CR and all that.
I guess US jobs figures on Friday and inflation data next week will decide the next move.
Lithium stocks one of the few things down today. Tbh any further run up here with them I'd be more a sell.
RandB
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 9, 2007
- 16,916
- 13,265
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
- Other Teams
- MUFC Norwood
Yeah some key dates coming up. 13th will be a fork in the road.
Bit of a sell off on yesterday's double bump by the looks.
- Oct 9, 2006
- 22,755
- 29,519
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
- Other Teams
- Super Tottenham....from the Lane.
Buy, buy, buy.
Lithium demand is outweighing supply and will do for years to come.
PLS hit a record high yesterday so was always going to come off a bit.
True but the counter argument is the stuff isn't actually that 'rare' and with the shortage of course there is now a big exploration through to eventual supply response to meet it.. also a pretty 'crowded' trade as far as investors I mean most people are long there.
- Oct 9, 2006
- 22,755
- 29,519
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
- Other Teams
- Super Tottenham....from the Lane.
Sell, sell, sell....of course I am being a smartarse.
The thing is though, there is a lot of noise around lithium exploration but in reality very few are having much success or at least not being able to scale their operations. This won't be a market full of small to mid-sized lithium companies longer term, they will inevitably get swallowed up by those who are bigger and were in the market earlier. Allkem is a perfect example growth in the sector by acquisition.
The trick is picking the right horse but there are plenty of clues out there. It's why I am into companies like Pilbara and Allkem and not so heavily invested in the likes of Liontown.
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Good time to read The Devil's Derivatives by Nicholas Dunbar if you haven't already. It's dense, but it paints an excellent picture of how the 2008 GFC unfolded at glacial pace, and then suddenly turned into an express train in the weeks before the Lehman Brothers collapse. Really helps to paint how these things unfold.
Still holding coal stocks or time to sell? Big drop overnight.
- Jan 12, 2008
- 8,115
- 8,289
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- Brisbane Lions
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- Chelsea, Fiorentina, Aus. Cricket
Will apparently be the case until 2025, according to Viktor Shvets/MacroBusiness.
I'd go for the ACDC ETF myself + LYC.
Sell and then repurchase when ASX starts to pick up. I'd look at companies like WHC/NHC.
Commodities perform poorly during stock market slumps, and there's set to be a coal boom over the next few years due to the Ukraine conflict and the subsequent sanctions against RUS driving up prices (RUS/UKR have a lot of coal reserves).
Things tend to slowly decay then collapse quickly.
See the Soviet Union.
- Apr 10, 2017
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Damn - i didnt need another finance book to read.
I've just bought the Tao of Trading and Broken markets in the past 2 weeks, gotta get cracking.
I follow a guy on twitter @wifeyalpha - check out his reading list.
This aged well.
But the Greenies said that coal was already dead.
The divy from Woodside in the bank account yesterday was a beauty as well. Wish I bought more at $20!
RandB
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 9, 2007
- 16,916
- 13,265
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
- Other Teams
- MUFC Norwood
I've been hanging for them to drop below $30 to buy in but it ain't gona happen.
