General Markets Talk

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Kram said:
Yeah but pure fear and panic...

I didn't buy anything on market in the crash but at least participated in every cap raise i was offered, I think the NAB one was around $13.

Didn't sell anything either and just rode it out.
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NAB was $14.15 from memory, now a bee's willy from $30. The ROI on those in regards to just dividends will pay the purchase price off in about 6 years.
 

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Kram said:
I still hold NAB and did buy some more MQG in the 160s but I wouldn't be buying the big 4 atm especially when you can get 4.5%+ risk free sitting in an account.
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I was more saying that the shares you got at $14.15 in the covid dip paid you 11.6% the last year, excluding cap gain and excluding franking credit. 16.82% ROI the last 12 months when you include the franking credit.

I don't think it's a wise plan to sit back and wait, but when the opportunity comes it's worth having the courage to jump in.

It's why money is made in booms and wealth is made in busts.
 
Spod could get to US$800/t
Lithium prices continue to grind lower in the face of weakening demand sentiment and
the robust supply outlook. In our 2024 outlook (note) we highlighted the near-term
supply-demand imbalance near-term with supply in 2024 expected to grow 40% vs.
demand 25% albeit without fully factoring any supply response to lower lithium prices.
Coupled with feedback from our China lithium analyst (note) who sees cost support
now at RMB80000/t. In this note we focus on where cost support could emerge and
what implied margins could mean from perspective of the converter. We take our
lithium price deck down 25-45% across the medium-term.
Where does cost support kick in?
Based on our 2024 cost curve and feedback from our China lithium analyst (note) we see
cost support emerging at ~$800/t vs. our view on demand. There are a few moving
pieces however including a) the feedstock cost of lepidolite and spodumene for non￾integrated producers, b) continued uncertainty on the near-term demand outlook and
c) the scale of the integrated China producers which look to be adding width to the low￾end of the curve. With anecdotal reports of DSO coming out of the market as well as
non-integrated lepidolite we see ex-China spodumene as the high cost producer on a
LCE equivalent basis.
Where do we go from here
It is hard to be all-out negative on a market that even on conservative estimates is
expected to grow 2-3x by 2030e. What is clear is that a lower price environment should
see a supply response in some form. We will likely see a) additional scrutiny on new
greenfield projects while b) the incumbents will rethink brownfield investments. In our
view, the potential scale of integrated refining capacity in China will play a significant
role on where the top-end of the cost curve ends up; we have lepidolite production
growing from 130kt in 23e to 189kt in 24e and 282kt in 25e but with mixed feedback
on potential capacity.
Downgrading prices and stocks
We have downgraded lithium stocks and valuation (note). Our lithium equity valuations
are 8-19% lower with significant EPS downgrades (>50% in FY25E). We downgrade
PLS from Neutral to Sell with a A$3.05/sh price target (from A$3.75/sh), retain a Sell
rating on MIN at a lower A$49/sh price target (from A$53/sh) and remain Buy rated
IGO despite a 14% lower price target of A$10.50/sh (from A$12.20/sh).
This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Australia Ltd. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES,
including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 8. UBS does and
seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a
conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making
their investment decision.
Equities
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Kram said:
Talks again of Woodside and Santos merging?
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WoodToss? SanSide?

Woodside is about twice the market cap of Santos so perhaps STO holders will be issued shares on WDS at a 2 for 1 arrangement of old to new? It might be closer to four Santos shares to one WDS.

If that's the case then STO would be massively undervalued, even after the huge raise in price today.
 

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Taylor said:
Do you want to be talked into it or talked out of it?
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I dunno NXT has been in a trading range for like 3 years and it is near the top of its range, no dividend, debt with high interests rates.. I have a lot if it after taking a 15+% profit probably better off putting it elsewhere or even just in the bank getting interest.
 
Kram said:
I dunno NXT has been in a trading range for like 3 years and it is near the top of its range, no dividend, debt with high interests rates.. I have a lot if it probably better put elsewhere or even just in the bank getting interest.
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You know what you want to do, you just don't know if you have the strength to do it.

That can be to hold, that can be to get your money working for you again.

If there's no long term hold plan then another option could use the finances to get you moving in the right direction.

Current interest in the bank is paying about 2.7%. That's the hard deck for this exercise.
 
Taylor said:
You know what you want to do, you just don't know if you have the strength to do it.

That can be to hold, that can be to get your money working for you again.

If there's no long term hold plan then another option could use the finances to get you moving in the right direction.

Current interest in the bank is paying about 2.7%. That's the hard deck for this exercise.
Click to expand...

You can get a bit better than 2.7% if you shop around.
 

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