General Markets Talk

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Frederico_WA said:
G'day all.
First timer in the thread. No expert but always keen to learn and sh*talk about stocks.
Only investing ASX as it fits my strategy and don't have the time to look further afield. Portfolio currently:
AVL 9%​
4DX 3%​
FLT 15%​
WEB 17%​
GHY 27%​
ZIP 29%​

Had 15% FMG until last month (in at $8) and was very happy to take that after holding for so long. Threw the cash into the stocks I'm most bullish on for 2024 - GHY & ZIP.

I always find it interesting to hear others' views on what they are investing in and why. For me, I will always be attracted to companies that are new, innovative and disrupting an industry. I'll share some of my thoughts on those I hold that fit this bill and why I like them.

2024 Bulls
I have a love/hate relationship with ZIP Co Limited (ZIP). I was on them super early (80c in 2018) and cashed out my initial investment around the $4 mark. With the remaining 'profits' I rode the wave over $12 ATH and bought more around $3 thinking bullish thoughts .... eventually closing the position at $1.50 for a sizeable loss and absolutely kicking myself. On reflection, I was blinded by my own bullish views, ZIPs glamorised reports, and the shorters continually hammering the stock. I sold out of frustration, not that I didn't believe the company had what it took to succeed.
Despite this I got back in during 2023 but am being more cautious. The February half-year report will be very telling for ZIP's 2024 performance. If they report cash flow positive and were able to achieve that during these tough conditions, then the year ahead with expected rate drops is going to be great.

My other bull for 2024 is Gold Hydrogen Limited (GHY). Listed only in January 2023, they have executed targeting exploration for hydrogen in South Australia and have confirmed world-class concentrations of naturally formed hydrogen and helium. They are commencing flow rate testing in Q1/24 and if confirmed as commercially viable they have stated an immediate play on the helium (which can be easily separated from the helium and bottled for immediate sale to market) could happen asap. As this is naturally formed helium (i.e. not a byproduct of a hydrocarbon production environment) it is 'green' helium. This is very rare.
FYI - 95% of hydrogen produced is from natural gas at a cost of $5.60/kg(AU) whereas Gold (or White) hydrogen is produced at $1(AU) per kg. The current on-trend Green hydrogen is ranged between $4-$7.
One to watch for sure. I'm expecting impatient profit takers to cash out a bit over the coming few months, so I plan for another buy if this hits 65c.

Small cap long hold disruptors
Australian Vanadium Limited (AVL) is developing the Australian Vanadium Project in WA. The orebody is one of the highest-grade vanadium deposits in the world. Vanadium Flow Batteries (VFB) beat Lithium batteries in many key areas (read here).
Recently completed their vanadium electrolyte manufacturing facility to produce up to 33MWh per annum of the electrolytes. Horizon Power has recently ordered a 220MWh VFB through AVLs subsidiary (VSUN Energy) for a trial.
AVL are close to an acquisition of Technology Metals Australia Limited (TMT) who operate a project on the same orebody. Plant to be constructed 2024, production targeted for 2025. 25yr mine life.

4DMedical (4DX) is an Australian based medical technology company that has successfully commercialised four-dimensional lung imaging solutions in a world first. It has the first FDA cleared respiratory imaging solution and is patented in key jurisdictions across the globe.
In December they acquired Imbio, an US-based medical imaging company that has x4 FDA approved technologies. Imbio tech paired with 4DX tech can more accurately detect early-stage diseases during scans.
Key achievements in 2023 include entering partnership with US Veteran Affairs, commercial agreement for use on PHILIPS imaging systems, and 4DX scans added to US Medicare for subsidies.
On a journey to be the first choice in the $14b respiratory imaging sector in US.

COVID low SP purchases
Nothing new to say about either of these two old timers. The last of my COVID lows buys. Both Flight Centre (FLT) and Webjet (WEB) are still slowly recovering to pre-COVID levels but I'm thinking 2024 may be the time for closing my positions.

As always, DYOR.
Cheers, Fred
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Frederico_WA said:
I've a contact at FMG that has flagged Sept'23 was the last +$1 div for a while. Felt it was a good time to get out to make a stronger play on GHY/ZIP and their near-term capital growth I predict hits in Q1/Q2 2024.

I had GHY on watch since IPO. Strong board (former Shell, Santos, & Hon. Alexander Downer) with plenty of related geo/explo knowledge with industry consulting knowledge/contacts. Very clear company vision and plan that has hit all milestones in their first 12 months. Two very successful drilling events confirming their target in high concentrations in Oct/Nov have led to an oversubscribed cap raise in December (all insto). GHY currently undertaking flow testing and will finish by March. If March flow show positive results I'd expect SP to go through $1 and progress a more aggressive expo to build data on the volumes in play. Geo estimates put their tenements between 200kt and 8,800kt of hydrogen. Nothing on helium yet.
If before March is dips to 67c I'll buy more, otherwise am prepared to hold for the long term.

ZIP were another I wanted to have a bigger position on in the near-term due to their upcoming Q2 FY24 results on January 30th. They have been toying with "cash flow positive" and other buzz-jargon for the last 12 months and this is the most likely point for it to happen. Have been alot of $100k+ buys over the last few weeks. A $300k buy today. Following big money like that makes me feel more confident than concerned.

At this stage the AVL/4DX are purely speculation plays. AVL has a very strong balance sheet to support the merger and the low vanadium prices (around the lowest price in years). Price usually hovers around double what it is now. For 4DX, they get a couple of US contracts this year, they'll be attractive to insto buyers. They have world leading tech that improves patient outcomes immensely so can also see them being attractive to be bought.
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Update on my 2x bull stocks I posted on 3rd January. Trending in the right direction!
  • ZIP were $0.59. Now $0.91. Up 54% (bought parcel near bottom @ 54c, then on its way back up @ 61c, 70c)
  • GHY were $0.78. Now $0.85. Up 9% (bought parcel @ 67c. Dipped to 62c bottom the next day(!!) but has shot back up since)
GHY resilience has surprised me after bouncing back up on the back of no news. Still waiting for their flow testing results in March.
ZIP release their full HY info on 27/02. Are surging off the back of their 2Q FY24 results. 1H FY24 results coming 27/02 and hopefully some more positive news released.

DYOR, cheers
 
I'm not understanding the rationale behind the bank prices going so high, all I can think of is that people who bought during the dip (let's use CBA at $54 as the example) are making 12% on their dividends and won't sell them so funds and safer bet investment groups are having to buy the top of the ASX200 at a seller's premium.

Granted inflation will mean prices trend that way, but CBA breaking $100 a share while paying $2 x2 = 4-5% return seemed unlikely - and it's over $118 a share at the moment.

Similar with people who picked up NAB for $14.15 in covid and it's $20 a share higher now paying $0.84 a share. 17% return per annum on the covid figure, but even NAB paying 7% on current prices I guess makes sense.

It seems like there's a lot of money looking for a place to hide at the moment.
 
Taylor said:
I'm not understanding the rationale behind the bank prices going so high, all I can think of is that people who bought during the dip (let's use CBA at $54 as the example) are making 12% on their dividends and won't sell them so funds and safer bet investment groups are having to buy the top of the ASX200 at a seller's premium.

Granted inflation will mean prices trend that way, but CBA breaking $100 a share while paying $2 x2 = 4-5% return seemed unlikely - and it's over $118 a share at the moment.

Similar with people who picked up NAB for $14.15 in covid and it's $20 a share higher now paying $0.84 a share. 17% return per annum on the covid figure, but even NAB paying 7% on current prices I guess makes sense.

It seems like there's a lot of money looking for a place to hide at the moment.
Click to expand...
It does happen when the market is convinced we've reached the top of the rates cycle. The strength of the housing market helps Aussie banks are we're more exposed to the residential lending market than most global peers.

There is the obvious 'flight to quality' during uncertain times too. A lot of small caps and speccies struggling this past year.
 
I probably won't because I have a 50% cash position anyway (may buy a property) but I have been half tempted to sell NAB around here.

Apart from CBA they don't really grow or go anywhere out of a range over time and it's just the ff div that you are sitting there for.

MQG is my only other financial.
 
Kram said:
I probably won't because I have a 50% cash position anyway (may buy a property) but I have been half tempted to sell NAB around here.

Apart from CBA they don't really grow or go anywhere out of a range over time and it's just the ff div that you are sitting there for.

MQG is my only other financial.
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I have been looking at figuring out where in the cycle is the best to buy in to maximise return on "dividend chasing" but my portfolio is a buy and forget style that has more cap growth than dividend payout.

So instead I wait for more value events to appear, which is why I'm surprised by the prices of bank stock.
 
Banks I think you can arguably play 2 ways, either just top up over the years when they happen to be down and just hang on which is what I have done, or try trading in and out of them at the peaks and troughs.

No way would I buy any big 4 bank stock atm, long term they are average investments and they are right up at their highs.

Smaller regional players I've never bothered to really look at or follow.
 

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Kram said:
Not a great day for CXO.
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Yeah. I've been watching the car crash from the sidelines for a while.
Was one of the most heavily shorted stocks on the ASX for a while and the big money makes the markets.

Some LT concerns over lithium given technologies for other battery types. Many of it's peers have suffered as well.
 
Kram said:
The Gold run on again.
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I have never had a winner on gold. Refuse to even look at the price or acknowledge it as a sector to invest in

Regardless of that it's a serial underperformer compared to others isn't it? Remember seeing a chart comparing it to other commodities/mining company SP on the ASX and it being near the bottom
 
I recently sold a small top up parcel of a gold stock I bought for an amount that paid for all the parcels of that stock I've ever bought - twice over. Mumma's getting the BIG steak for dinner.

I had to sell it, my portfolio was overflowing in non producing stock so I need to move some of that cap gain into something that will pay me regularly.
 
burge13 said:
I have never had a winner on gold. Refuse to even look at the price or acknowledge it as a sector to invest in

Regardless of that it's a serial underperformer compared to others isn't it? Remember seeing a chart comparing it to other commodities/mining company SP on the ASX and it being near the bottom
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Broadly sure but like anything gotta pick out the good ones. I agree it isn't easy and also have the advantage of tips and advice from someone with a lifetime in the sector. Way simpler ways of making money for most people.

Ones I've owned.

WAF very solid win.
OGC, RMS and WGX. Small profits, first 2 barely worth the effort though.
NST small profit atm plus div payments.
GMD sitting on a very solid win atm.
TRE micro cap punt, holding on small loss on tiny holding.
 
Kram said:
Broadly sure but like anything gotta pick out the good ones. I agree it isn't easy and also have the advantage of tips and advice from someone with a lifetime in the sector. Way simpler ways of making money for most people.

Ones I've owned.

WAF very solid win.
OGC, RMS and WGX. Small profits, first 2 barely worth the effort though.
NST small profit atm plus div payments.
GMD sitting on a very solid win atm.
TRE micro cap punt, holding on small loss on tiny holding.
Click to expand...
I got a tip from a mate years ago in gold. GBZ

Absolute dog lol
 

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