Club Focus Goodoil's Draft Grades

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GoodoilBartul

Rookie
Sep 19, 2024
40
141
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
Adelaide - B+

Solid draft for the Crows and the most predictable as the draft nights approached with them getting locals Sid Draper and Tyler Welsh. Both should be just about ready to go with Draper adding some slickness to Adelaide's midfield. It's hard to argue against his selection. Matching for/taking Welsh was a no-brainer. He is ready to go but will probably be hard to fit into any side that already has Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker in it and will likely need to bide his time. That the Crows only had two picks says to me they believe they are ready to make a deep cut into the top 8 reckoning in 2025.

Brisbane - A+

It's hard to beat what Brisbane did here, getting arguably the draft's best player in Levi Ashcroft for very little penalty. Add to that, they get another midfielder in Sam Marshall who in an open pool situation might have gone a lot higher than when his actual name was called out. Geelong (who it became apparent were tracking similar smokies to myself) put in a bid for Ty Gallop and the Lions smartly matched. He's an exciting key forward talent who recently did some one-on-one training with Christian Petracca on the Sunshine Coast. The Maroochydore 194cm product has an imposing frame and is another nice ingredient for the reigning premiers' future.

Carlton - B+
Edit
The Blues rated Jagga Smith as the best player in the draft so they will be pleased to get him and the way the draft panned out I think it ended up being a good move as players they may have held back for weren't there. The troika of Cripps, Walsh and Smith will be menacing if Smith's prodigious junior performances translate to the AFL. Getting Harry O'Farrell with a pick under a bid for the Camporeale twins was a good result and an effective bonus pick. He will be their long-term key back prospect and brings some extra size down back, definitely a need and close to best available at that point. Not paying a price for the twins was a good result and the Blues should be pleased with their haul.

Collingwood - B

The Pies didn't have much to work with but brought in three interesting players who will each add their own dimension. It was surprising the Swans passed on Joel Cochran who now gives the Pies a promising defender with some size (195cm) and some dash. Bidding for him didn't seem like a reach so it was certainly an interesting pass by Sydney. Perhaps they don't see him being able to neutralise big forwards and a third tall style back wasn't needed. Collingwood then took two players I mocked to Carlton in a similar spot in the draft in Charlie West and Will Hayes. I actually think both will become fan favourites amongst the Magpie faithful and couldn't be more different. West with his imposing frame, mullet potential and marking ability and Hayes as a zippy half-forward with a range of tricks. Both are emblematic of this draft in that they are talents you wouldn't get in the 50s in other editions. With what it had to work with the Pies shopped in a nicely balanced and value-focussed fashion.

Essendon - A

Essendon have copped quite a lot of flak for its pre-draft trading away of what was Pick 9 but they got excellent value for it and were still able to add some nice pieces through the middle rungs of this draft to add to Isaac Kako and they have a great hand for next year where they will have a chance to go after some of the excellent key position players that might be available. Kako, by the way, is a great addition who should bind together the Bombers forward line nicely. The perfect player at the perfect time and an obvious Don cult hero in the making.

HF: Perkins, Jones, Langford
F: Caddy, Wright, Kako

Doesn't look too bad with Gresham rotating through as well.

Gerreyn was a good pick where they got him as a long-term strong-bodied ruck/forward hybrid. Down the track there will be interesting ways they can use him. I love the pick of Clarke who I rated much higher than where he went as a third/fourth defender who can carry the football and has a raking kick. Rhys Unwin is a good player who can play through the midfield or as a small forward. There's a possibility he could play back too. And they got Zak Johnson late, a big-bodied midfielder or accountable half-back. I didn't have him in my mock but he was a very good Coates League player and you can't put them all in.

Fremantle - B+

I give the Dockers a strong mark because they get a player I rated in the top five in the draft at Pick 17. You can't teach the weapons Reid has at his disposal - the 360-degree handball wizardry, the back-pedalling in traffic and the elite short-to-intermediate kicking range and quality. If it clicks for him at AFL level he will be star. The AFL clubs that bypassed him will have their reasons why that might not be the case. Charlie Nicholls was a sound pick for Fremantle as well. He is versatile but as a key forward, his running ability will be valuable in the West - just needs to tighten up his marking game. They needed another tall forward and they were starting to fly off the board, hence his selection. Mature-age father-son pickup Jaren Carr is a rangy medium half-forward and late bloomer like his dad, Matthew. It won't be a surprise if he is developed to play in multiple positions as well.

Geelong - B+

After Geelong's second pick, I wondered whether Andrew Mackie had broken into my vault and stole my pre-draft notes. At that point the Cats had either bid for and or picked three of my favourite smokies in the draft. I loved their failed Ty Gallop bid but after that they then drafted my favourite player in the draft, Jay Polkinghorne, who I rated inside the top 20. He is a key forward with good hands, X-factor and a lovely kick for goal. Had his first half of the season not been decimated by injury he would have been more widely-known and I just think this is a terrific pick from the Cats. Jacob Molier is another very nice South Australian pick as a ruckman with tremendous athleticism for his size and unlimited upside. I would be happy to gamble he becomes a successful ruckman, but he will take time. They got a quick third/fourth defender in Lennox Hoffman who I wasn't sure would get drafted and St Kilda passed on. I would have done so too, but he had a terrific combine (blazing speed) and will be in a good development framework at Kardinia Park. Keighton Matofai-Forbes reminds me a bit of Cam Rayner and is a nice project piece for Geelong. I was pretty confident someone would take a chance on his X-factor. I feel the Cats have done wonders with their haul. I think their first two picks could end up playing to first round level.

Gold Coast - B+

Gold Coast didn't have much to do. They matched with and acquired one of the best juniors of all time in Leo Lombard who is going to be a very good, but smallish midfielder. They then won the rights to mammoth full back Cooper Bell from the GWS academy. He has potential as a long-term lockdown defender. He has a stupendous blaze of frizzed and mulleted red hair.

GWS - B-

The Giants needed to add some flanking depth having seen so much of it lost in the offseason. I'm not sure Oliver Hannaford was necessarily a need but he's another exciting small forward to add to the Giants' list. GWS then attacked need with tough half-back Harrison Oliver who uses the ball well and attacking wingman/half-forward Cody Angove. Oliver was the obvious pick for the Giants after a run of midfielder/flankers went off the board at the expense of two of three of the highly-ranked forwards. Angove went highish at 24 but I think would have been no shock in the 30s or so. He's a very promising player who can carry it distance and then bomb home from long range, but will take time. Ough is an interesting type as 194cm wingman, midfielder. I like his poise but sometimes these types of players find it hard to find a position, ask Henry Hustwaite. Logan Smith, the NGA ruckman, is a good long-term development option. I was a bit surprised they let Cooper Bell through.

Hawthorn - B

It's not easy grading a club with two low asset picks, but like the Crows I think Hawthorn did well with the average hand they essentially dealt themselves. I think Noah Mraz was a good value pick at 35. He is more talented than that number but hasn't been able to show it. After Hawthorn's off-season moves he will be given time too, so it's a nice set up for him. Cody Anderson as an NGA academy pick was fine, though they maybe could have got him a rookie. He'll cause havoc round the packs in time.

Melbourne - C

Harvey Langford was a solid first selection for the Dees and though he is a more attack-minded player will help replace the physicality and solidity at the contest lost with Angus Brayshaw's retirement. No issue with that pick at all. I don't have Xavier Lindsay rated as high as where he went so I'm not a huge fan of the pick at a basic level. He's a very good player bursting from stoppage but I worry about his distribution and ability to stand up in the heat of the contest as an inside mid and think his play as a free-wheeling player is over-rated. Happy to be proven wrong, but the Dees could be left with a mediocre receiver type or an inside mid who is too slight for the role. Admittedly, those are worst-case scenarios. The main issue at play here is nothing to do with the player but the horrific concept of trading a future first rounder, the pick gained for Alex Neal-Bullen and other assets without knowing precisely what was available with the new pick well ahead of time. The Demons did this last year trading three picks for one in the hope they could win an unwinnable auction (never had the artillery to beat North) for Harley Reid and have executed his same stupid sequence once again (admittedly for a different purpose). It is just complete nonsense and a million miles away from best practice. This year they could have not got too excited too early and drafted say both Christian Moraes and my favourite player Polkinghorne as alternatives, all the while keeping their first pick next year. I hope Lindsay proves me wrong and is the second coming of Zach Merrett because that's what he needs to be to make sense of the madness. Either way, it's just horrific process and actually it was only the league rules that save clubs from themselves that stopped Melbourne trading away the future first that would have been Luke Jackson four or so years ago, effectively protecting a premiership and arguably saving the club. With their last pick, Melbourne drafted bash and crash 25yo VFL forward Aidan Johnson who kicked 17 goals this year. He needs to be close to best 22 very quickly for the pick to make any sense. At the moment it doesn't, though he certainly has a terrifying presence about him with his menacing cranium and uncircuitous location to the football when it's in flight. He's going to make defenders pay for getting in his way. Not matching for Riak Andrew was a good move, didn't have him in my top 150. A harsh grade for Melbourne but I punish them for the horrific process and pray they don't miss out on a Duursma, Cumming or Onley next year because of it. Not to mention the fact that Lindsay has to outplay the opportunity cost of not just that pick but two mid round picks this year as well. That's a huge ask for any player and not the sort of bargain a club should make without knowing exactly who, what and how good the player they are setting up for that challenge is when the deal is being struck.

North Melbourne - B

It's hard to knock the O'Sullivan pick, he's a premium talent and adds another dimension with his sidestep and evasive ability. Most importantly he has a touch of class and should be able to step in straightaway and play good AFL footy as a wing or high half-forward very quickly. Giving up their future first for Matt Whitlock was ever-so-slightly odd versus the alternative options but he is a big, talented, versatile 200cm swingman so the move might pay off in spades and they got Richmond's second rounder as a make-weight to help offset what could be some horrific to think about worst-case scenarios. North's issue was they needed to come away with an inside 50 big. I love the pick of Urquhart, whose combine vaulted him into my top 30. Definitely not really a need, he's an old fashioned, hard-working extractor who will remind Kangas fans of Andrew Swallow. River Stevens had a better Coates level season that many think, a promising pressure forward. North are positioned to rise up the ladder this year and they've kind of made sure they need to.

Port Adelaide - A

I can't fault Port's draft they got a very good player in Joe Berry who may end up being a Caleb Serong-type in time. They then got Jack Whitlock (a need) to add to their forward stocks with the added benefit that he can backup ruck as well and then Christian Moraes who I predicted they would take as a long-term outside runner to help replace Travis Boak. All were good value and sensible selections.

Richmond - A

To walk away with eight players that I would have inside my top 40-45 in a good draft is clearly a great result for the Tigers and I wish one of my all-time favourite players and heroes, Adem Yze, well in this rebuild. Lalor was the right pick, right time for Richmond. He kicks with penetration, is hard-at-it and good overhead. No certainty he emerges as the draft's best player though. It will be interesting to see how they use Smillie, a prodigious talent in a shape and style you don't often see. Could be the next David Mundy. I love the pick of Hotton who I rated easily in the top five pre-injury and may have gone number one with any luck. I couldn't get Faull up that high but they obviously like his physically and the fact he is ready to go and a fit next to Tom Lynch. Trainor and Armstrong are good picks at their spots as long-term spine players at either end and Sims was a good pick too. I rated him around there and was surprised at the notion he may slide as he is exactly the type AFL clubs covet. Faull, Armstrong and Sims will fit as a forward trident down the track with their complimentary attributes. Alger was a good pick late as they needed some tricks inside 50. My issue with what the Tigers have done is they may have overdone their key forward stocks, what if they are the best available types when their picks come next year? There is also no real outside run aside from Hotton who likely won't be a factor until 2025. That was in some ways more because of the way the draft fell and it enabled/wedged in some ways the Tigers to pick the key position carcass of the draft. It's not a bad thing but it might be problematic down the track. Still a very good haul from Richmond all the same.

St Kilda - B+

I really like St Kilda's draft. Travaglia was the right pick as a running half-back, wingman who could easily have gone much higher without any smarties blinking. Getting Tauru where they did was a good value pick. He is going to be so much fun and as a pair Saints fans should be really excited and looking forward to seeing these guys in action sooner rather than later. I was surprised Barrat went here but with Tauru, St Kilda now have two interchangeable parts and their key position depth has improved. I thought they might look at Urquhart but went with a similar profile in Boxshall as a WA inside mid long-term Crouch replacement. Dodson fell to 53 and is the ruckman they coveted. A good value at that spot and a good spot for him as he may get thrust into the action earlier here. Said is a skillful and I flirted with him in my phantom draft - wing/half-forward, leading deep forward type. Cole slipping through wasn't a bad result and they might be able to add Elwood Peckett and Sam Linder as well as rookies.

Sydney - C+

The Swans got a player type they needed in Dattoli, someone to add some X-factor in deep 50. Bowman is an athletic X-factor wingman/half-forward who might be able to add some forward potency Sydney loses when they deploy Heeney through the middle and with Luke Parker gone. I thought Sydney would go after Harry Oliver or a premium defensive kicker in this draft but they were gone and so they took VFL player Riley Bice. He's got a weapon of a kick on him and seems a good fit - will be a very popular SuperCoach pick. I can't get excited about Riak Andrew, who in my viewing of him has lacked the cleanliness and body control of an AFL prospect. He does however have good genetics and is very young for a mature-ager, having just turned 19 years of age. Not matching for Cochran was odd.

West Coast - A+

Great draft for West Coast who bookend things with the two highest rated consensus Sandgropers in the pool, Bo Allan and Hamish Davis, both highly productive, but both needing a bit of polish to their games. All the same they were both good value at their slots. Jobe Shanahan at 30 was the pick of the draft just about for me, maybe dead-heating with Murphy Reid at 17 and Jay Polkinghorne at 44. Yes, he's a touch slow but he kicks the ball lovely for a player of his size, both for goal and in the field, and he marks the ball so well. I had him in my top 10. I knew Gross would slide but he gives the Eagles some more midfield depth and might even be best as a defensive forward. Lucca Grego had a terrific combine and that with his sound decision-making got him drafted, with the Eagles likely to use him off half-back and wing initially.

Western Bulldogs - B

The Doggies had a nice hand to play with. Cooper Hynes might hearken Dogs fans to Jake Stringer with his abilities as tall midfielder/half-forward with a powerful explosive burst and an eye for a goal. He has a lot of X-factor and can hurt in multiple ways. Lachie Jaques was a good pick. I thought the Bulldogs might go for Angus Clarke but Jaques was their choice for this role, maybe a better interceptor and a better ground ball sweeper than is Clarke. Dolan is an upgrade on the McNeil, Scotts and Joneses the Dogs have used as high half-forward crumbers in recent seasons in combination with Cody Weightman. He's quick and smart. Sam Davidson gives the Dogs some depth up forward, but not sure they can play Naughton, JUH, Darcy and him in the same forward line, but maybe they try. Kennedy is a well-rounded player who could play through the midfield or half-back in time. Not a flashy pick, but likely a solid one.
 
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Adelaide - B+

Solid draft for the Crows and the most predictable as the draft nights approached with them getting locals Sid Draper and Tyler Welsh. Both should be just about ready to go with Draper adding some slickness to Adelaide's midfield. It's hard to argue against his selection. Matching for/taking Welsh was a no-brainer. He is ready to go but will probably be hard to fit into any side that already has Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker in it and will likely need to bide his time. That the Crows only had two picks says to me they believe they are ready to make a deep cut into the top 8 reckoning in 2025.

Brisbane - A+

It's hard to beat what Brisbane did here, getting arguably the draft's best player in Levi Ashcroft for very little penalty. Add to that, they get another midfielder in Sam Marshall who in an open pool situation might have gone a lot higher than when his actual name was called out. Geelong (who it became apparent were tracking similar smokies to myself) put in a bid for Ty Gallop and the Lions smartly matched. He's an exciting key forward talent who recently did some one-on-one training with Christian Petracca on the Sunshine Coast. The Maroochydore 194cm product has an imposing frame and is another nice ingredient for the reigning premiers' future.

Carlton - B+

The Blues rated Jagga Smith as the best player in the draft so they will be pleased to get him and the way the draft panned out I think it ended up being a good move as players they may have held back for weren't there. The troika of Cripps, Walsh and Smith will be menacing if Smith's prodigious junior performances translate to the AFL. Getting Harry O'Farrell with a pick under a bid for the Camporeale twins was a good result and an effective bonus pick. He will be their long-term key back prospect and brings some extra size down back, definitely a need and close to best available at that point. Not paying a price for the twins was a good result and the Blues should be pleased with their haul.

Collingwood - B

The Pies didn't have much to work with but brought in three interesting players who will each add their own dimension. It was surprising the Swans passed on Joel Cochran who now gives the Pies a promising defender with some size (195cm) and some dash. Bidding for him didn't seem like a reach so it was certainly an interesting pass by Sydney. Perhaps they don't see him being able to neutralise big forwards and a third tall style back wasn't needed. Collingwood then took two players I mocked to Carlton in a similar spot in the draft in Charlie West and Will Hayes. I actually think both will become fan favourites amongst the Magpie faithful and couldn't be more different. West with his imposing frame, mullet potential and marking ability and Hayes as a zippy half-forward with a range of tricks. Both are emblematic of this draft in that they are talents you wouldn't get in the 50s in other editions. With what it had to work with the Pies shopped in a nicely balanced and value-focussed fashion.

Essendon - A

Essendon have copped quite a lot of flak for its pre-draft trading away of what was Pick 9 but they got excellent value for it and were still able to add some nice pieces through the middle rungs of this draft to add to Isaac Kako and they have a great hand for next year where they will have a chance to go after some of the excellent key position players that might be available. Kako, by the way, is a great addition who should bind together the Bombers forward line nicely. The perfect player at the perfect time and an obvious Don cult hero in the making.

HF: Perkins, Jones, Langford
F: Caddy, Wright, Kako

Doesn't look too bad with Gresham rotating through as well.

Gerreyn was a good pick where they got him as a long-term strong-bodied ruck/forward hybrid. Down the track there will be interesting ways they can use him. I love the pick of Clarke who I rated much higher than where he went as a third/fourth defender who can carry the football and has a raking kick. Rhys Unwin is a good player who can play through the midfield or as a small forward. There's a possibility he could play back too. And they got Zak Johnson late, a big-bodied midfielder or accountable half-back. I didn't have him in my mock but he was a very good Coates League player and you can't put them all in.

Fremantle - B+

I give the Dockers a strong mark because they get a player I rated in the top five in the draft at Pick 17. You can't teach the weapons Reid has at his disposal - the 360-degree handball wizardry, the back-pedalling in traffic and the elite short-to-intermediate kicking range and quality. If it clicks for him at AFL level he will be star. The AFL clubs that bypassed him will have their reasons why that might not be the case. Charlie Nicholls was a sound pick for Fremantle as well. He is versatile but as a key forward, his running ability will be valuable in the West - just needs to tighten up his marking game. They needed another tall forward and they were starting to fly off the board, hence his selection. Mature-age father-son pickup Jaren Carr is a rangy medium half-forward and late bloomer like his dad, Matthew. It won't be a surprise if he is developed to play in multiple positions as well.

Geelong - B+

After Geelong's second pick, I wondered whether Andrew Mackie had broken into my vault and stole my pre-draft notes. At that point the Cats had either bid for and or picked three of my favourite smokies in the draft. I loved their failed Ty Gallop bid but after that they then drafted my favourite player in the draft, Jay Polkinghorne, who I rated inside the top 20. He is a key forward with good hands, X-factor and a lovely kick for goal. Had his first half of the season not been decimated by injury he would have been more widely-known and I just think this is a terrific pick from the Cats. Jacob Molier is another very nice South Australian pick as a ruckman with tremendous athleticism for his size and unlimited upside. I would be happy to gamble he becomes a successful ruckman, but he will take time. They got a quick third/fourth defender in Lennox Hoffman who I wasn't sure would get drafted and St Kilda passed on. I would have done so too, but he had a terrific combine (blazing speed) and will be in a good development framework at Kardinia Park. Keighton Matofai-Forbes reminds me a bit of Cam Rayner and is a nice project piece for Geelong. I was pretty confident someone would take a chance on his X-factor. I feel the Cats have done wonders with their haul. I think their first two picks could end up playing to first round level.

Gold Coast - B+

Gold Coast didn't have much to do. They matched with and acquired one of the best juniors of all time in Leo Lombard who is going to be a very good, but smallish midfielder. They then won the rights to mammoth full back Cooper Bell from the GWS academy. He has potential as a long-term lockdown defender. He has a stupendous blaze of frizzed and mulleted red hair.

GWS - B-

The Giants needed to add some flanking depth having seen so much of it lost in the offseason. I'm not sure Oliver Hannaford was necessarily a need but he's another exciting small forward to add to the Giants' list. GWS then attacked need with tough half-back Harrison Oliver who uses the ball well and attacking wingman/half-forward Cody Angove. Oliver was the obvious pick for the Giants after a run of midfielder/flankers went off the board at the expense of two of three of the highly-ranked forwards. Angove went highish at 24 but I think would have been no shock in the 30s or so. He's a very promising player who can carry it distance and then bomb home from long range, but will take time. Ough is an interesting type as 194cm wingman, midfielder. I like his poise but sometimes these types of players find it hard to find a position, ask Henry Hustwaite. Logan Smith, the NGA ruckman, is a good long-term development option. I was a bit surprised they let Cooper Bell through.

Hawthorn - B

It's not easy grading a club with two low asset picks, but like the Crows I think Hawthorn did well with the average hand they essentially dealt themselves. I think Noah Mraz was a good value pick at 35. He is more talented than that number but hasn't been able to show it. After Hawthorn's off-season moves he will be given time too, so it's a nice set up for him. Cody Anderson as an NGA academy pick was fine, though they maybe could have got him a rookie. He'll cause havoc round the packs in time.

Melbourne - C

Harvey Langford was a solid first selection for the Dees and though he is a more attack-minded player will help replace the physicality and soldity at the contest lost with Angus Brayshaw's retirement. No issue with that pick at all. I don't have Xavier Lindsay rated as high as where he went so I'm not a huge fan of the pick at a basic level. He's a very good player bursting from stoppage but I worry about his distribution and ability to stand up in the heat of the contest as an inside mid and think his play as a free-wheeling player is over-rated. Happy to be proven wrong, but the Dees could be left with a mediocre receiver type or an inside mid who is too slight for the role. Admittedly, those are worst-case scenarios. The main issue at play here is nothing to do with the player but the horrific concept of trading a future first rounder, the pick gained for Alex Neal-Bullen and other assets without knowing precisely what was available with the new pick well ahead of time. The Demons did this last year trading three picks for one in the hope they could win an unwinnable auction (never had the artillery to beat North) for Harley Reid and have done this same stupid idea once again (admittedly for a different purpose). It is just complete nonsense and a million miles away from best practice. This year they could have not got too excited too early and drafted say both Christian Moraes and my favourite player Polkinghorne as alternatives, all the while keeping their first pick next year. I hope Lindsay proves me wrong and is the second coming of Zach Merrett because that's what he needs to be to make sense of the madness. Either way, it's just horrific process and actually it was only the league rules that save clubs from themselves that stopped Melbourne trading away the future first that would have been Luke Jackson four or so years ago, effectively protecting a premiership and arguably saving the club. With their last pick, Melbourne drafted bash and crash 25yo VFL forward Aidan Johnson who kicked 17 goals this year. He needs to be close to best 22 very quickly for the pick to make any sense. At the moment it doesn't, though he certainly has a terrifying presence about him with his menacing cranium and uncircuitous location to the football when it's in flight. He's going to make defenders pay for getting in his way. Not matching for Riak Andrew was a good move, didn't have him in my top 150. A harsh grade for Melbourne but I punish them for the horrific process and pray they don't miss out on a Duursma, Cumming or Onley next year because of it. Not to mention the fact that Lindsay has to outplay the opportunity cost of not just that pick but two mid round picks this year as well.

North Melbourne - B

It's hard to knock the O'Sullivan pick, he's a premium talent and adds another dimension with his sidestep and evasive ability. Most importantly he has a touch of class and should be able to step in straightaway and play good AFL footy as a wing or high half-forward very quickly. Giving up their future first for Matt Whitlock was ever-so-slightly odd versus the alternative options but he is a big, talented, versatile 200cm swingman so the move might pay off in spades and they got Richmond's second rounder as a make-weight to help offset what could be some horrific to think about worst-case scenarios. North's issue was they need to come away with an inside 50 big. I love the pick of Urquhart, whose combine vaulted him into my top 30. He's an old fashioned, hard-working extractor who will remind Kangas fans of Andrew Swallow. River Stevens had a better Coates level season that many think, a promising pressure forward. North a positioned to rise up the ladder this year and need to.

Port Adelaide - A

I can't fault Port's draft they got a very good player in Joe Berry who may end up being a Caleb Serong-type in time. They then got Jack Whitlock (a need) to add to their forward stocks with the added benefit that he can backup ruck as well and then Christian Moraes who I predicted they would take as a long-term outside runner to help replace Travis Boak. All were good value and sensible selections.

Richmond - A

To walk away with eight players that I would have inside my top 40-45 in a good draft is clearly a great result for the Tigers and I wish one of my all-time favourite players and heroes, Adem Yze, well in this rebuild. Lalor was the right pick, right time for Richmond. He kicks with penetration, is hard-at-it and good overhead. No certainty he emerges as the draft's best player though. It will be interesting to see how they use Smillie, a prodigious talent in a shape and style you don't often see. Could be the next David Mundy. I love the pick of Hotton who I rated easily in the top five pre-injury and may have gone number one with any luck. I couldn't get Faull up that high but they obviously like his physically and the fact he is ready to go and a fit next to Tom Lynch. Trainor and Armstrong are good picks at their spots as long-term spine players at either end and Sims was a good pick too. I rated him around there and was surprised at the notion he may slide as he is exactly the type AFL clubs covet. Faull, Armstrong and Sims will fit as a forward trident down the track with their complimentary attributes. Alger was a good pick late as they needed some tricks inside 50. My issue with what the Tigers have done is they may have overdone their key forward stocks, what if they are the best available types next year? There is also no real outside run aside from Hotton who may be a year away, but Richmond likely that was in some ways more because of the way the draft fell and enabled to pick the key position carcass of the draft. Still very good haul from Richmond all the same.

St Kilda - B+

I really like St Kilda's draft. Travaglia was the right pick as a running half-back, wingman who could easily have gone much higher without any smarties blinking. Getting Tauru where they did was a good value pick. He is going to be so much fun and as a pair Saints should be really excited and looking forward to seeing these guys in action sooner rather than later. I was surprised Barrat went here but with Tauru, St Kilda now have two interchangeable parts and their key position depth has improved. I thought they might look at Urquhart but went with a similar profile in Boxshall as a WA inside mid long-term Crouch replacement. Dodson fell to 53 as is the ruckman they coveted. A good value at that sport. Said is a skillful and I flirted with him in my phantom draft - wing/half-forward, leading deep forward type. Cole slipping through wasn't a bad result and they might be able to add Elwood Peckett and Sam Linder as well as rookies.

Sydney - C+

The Swans got a player type they needed in Dattoli, someone to add some X-factor in deep 50. Bowman is an athletic X-factor wingman/half-forward who might be able to add some forward potency Sydney loses when they deploy Heeney through the middle and with Luke Parker gone. I thought Sydney would go after Harry Oliver or a premium defensive kicker in this draft but they were gone and so they took VFL player Riley Bice. He's got a weapon of a kick on him and seems a good fit - will be a very popular SuperCoach pick. I can't get excited about Riak Andrew, who in my viewing of him has lacked the cleanliness and body control of an AFL prospect. He does however have good genetics and is very young for a mature-ager, having just turned 19 years of age. Not matching for Cochran was odd.

West Coast - A+

Great draft for West Coast who bookend things with the two highest rated consensus Sandgropers in the pool, Bo Allan and Hamish Davis, both highly productive, but both needing a bit of polish to their games. All the same they were both good value at their slots. Jobe Shanahan at 30 was the pick of the draft just about for me, maybe dead-heating with Murphy Reid at 17 and Jay Polkinghorne at 44. Yes, he's a touch slow but he kicks the ball lovely for a player of his size, both for goal and in the field, and he marks the ball so well. I had him in my top 10. I knew Gross would slide but he gives the Eagles some more midfield depth and might even be best as a defensive forward. Lucca Grego had a terrific combine and that with his sound decision-making got him drafted, with the Eagles likely to use him off half-back and wing initially.

Western Bulldogs - B

The Doggies had a nice hand to play with. Cooper Hynes might hearken Dogs fans to Jake Stringer with his abilities a tall midfielder/half-forward. He has a lot of X-factor and can hurt in multiple ways. Lachie Jaques was a good pick. I thought the Bulldogs might go for Angus Clarke but Jaques was their choice for this role, maybe a better interceptor and a better ground ball sweeper than is Clarke. Dolan is an upgrade on the McNeil, Scotts and Joneses, the Dogs have used as high half-forward crumbers in recent seasons in combination with Cody Weightman. He's quick and smart. Sam Davidson gives the Dogs some depth up forward, but not sure they can play Naughton, JUH, Darcy and him in the same forward line, but maybe they try. Kennedy is a well-rounded player who could play through the midfield or half-back in time. Not a flashy pick, but likely a solid one.
Good summary, agree on the tigers, while happy I would have loved reid in there and felt we probably went over the top on kpf.
 

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I reluctantly love what the dogs did. Jacques will be a ripper and Davidson is a super pick-annoyed they traded ahead of us. I like Josh dolan too.

Ports picks are good albeit they should have delisted that spud mcentee

West coast got good value. Carlton did an amazing deal for jagga Smith.

I love gerryn and Clarke for essendon but they shouldn't have traded 9.

Don't understand what st kilda or Sydney did.
 
I reluctantly love what the dogs did. Jacques will be a ripper and Davidson is a super pick-annoyed they traded ahead of us. I like Josh dolan too.

Ports picks are good albeit they should have delisted that spud mcentee

West coast got good value. Carlton did an amazing deal for jagga Smith.

I love gerryn and Clarke for essendon but they shouldn't have traded 9.

Don't understand what st kilda or Sydney did.
Sydney might offer a god father deal to Mac Andrew, now they have his brother at some time in the future hes already on good money.
interesting that swans didnt take their academy kid.
It doesnt matter if this years draft is a bust for swans as they have academy kids next year, like Suns.
Melbourne has a lot of work to do to get Kalani White to choose Demons. But it likely makes sense to their deal to trade out next years first this year.
 
Please do not disrespect one of Ken's all time favourite pets like that. He will not take it well

He is barely sanfl standard. Begs the question of why you even kept him if you were committed to drafting Berry.
 
Richmond - A

To walk away with eight players that I would have inside my top 40-45 in a good draft is clearly a great result for the Tigers and I wish one of my all-time favourite players and heroes, Adem Yze, well in this rebuild. Lalor was the right pick, right time for Richmond. He kicks with penetration, is hard-at-it and good overhead. No certainty he emerges as the draft's best player though. It will be interesting to see how they use Smillie, a prodigious talent in a shape and style you don't often see. Could be the next David Mundy. I love the pick of Hotton who I rated easily in the top five pre-injury and may have gone number one with any luck. I couldn't get Faull up that high but they obviously like his physically and the fact he is ready to go and a fit next to Tom Lynch. Trainor and Armstrong are good picks at their spots as long-term spine players at either end and Sims was a good pick too. I rated him around there and was surprised at the notion he may slide as he is exactly the type AFL clubs covet. Faull, Armstrong and Sims will fit as a forward trident down the track with their complimentary attributes. Alger was a good pick late as they needed some tricks inside 50. My issue with what the Tigers have done is they may have overdone their key forward stocks, what if they are the best available types when their picks come next year? There is also no real outside run aside from Hotton who likely won't be a factor until 2025. That was in some ways more because of the way the draft fell and it enabled/wedged in some ways the Tigers to pick the key position carcass of the draft. It's not a bad thing but it might be problematic down the track. Still a very good haul from Richmond all the same.

I am surprised by what the Tigers did. But if you look at this way - The Tigers wanted to build the basis of a premiership side. So they picked a top end midfield core first, then a group of KPFs to make sure that the forward line would be quality. Too many KPF's is Ok as most likely one of two won't make it. But you are almost certain to have a viable good KPF. That ensures a good spine (Tigers have KPDs already).

After that it's about future drafts and trades to fill in the team. Look 2 years ahead and the club can now build around this core.

value picks that were just there were the best KPD as too much value to miss on, and a quality small forward. rounds out the group.

But I reckon the goal was simply to build the midfield and spine no matter what. Then the future awaits to fill in around the core.

So you are right in the one year view, but maybe not a mistake in the longer term.
 

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With their last pick, Melbourne drafted bash and crash 25yo VFL forward Aidan Johnson who kicked 17 goals this year. He needs to be close to best 22 very quickly for the pick to make any sense.
Not sure a guy drafted with 68 needs to do anything more than play a few games for it to be a success. And coming in at 25 he’s got plenty of time if he’s around the level.

The Demons did this last year trading three picks for one in the hope they could win an unwinnable auction (never had the artillery to beat North) for Harley Reid and have executed his same stupid sequence once again (admittedly for a different purpose). It is just complete nonsense and a million miles away from best practice. This year they could have not got too excited too early and drafted say both Christian Moraes and my favourite player Polkinghorne as alternatives, all the while keeping their first pick next year. I hope Lindsay proves me wrong and is the second coming of Zach Merrett because that's what he needs to be to make sense of the madness. Either way, it's just horrific process and actually it was only the league rules that save clubs from themselves that stopped Melbourne trading away the future first that would have been Luke Jackson four or so years ago, effectively protecting a premiership and arguably saving the club

The trade for the Jackson pick was a live deal at the draft for Butters, not sure our fate would’ve been worse with him. Reckon we could’ve found a ruck/forward elsewhere and had another A grade mid.

We also did a 3 for 1 deal when Jackson left so we’ve had some picks to play with. Some bad contacts have hurt but they’ve backed in their 3rd and 4th year kids to fill depth/fringe roles.

Last years draft ran out at 30, I’d have preferred to just trade the spare picks for future stuff but the offers weren’t going to be good. They knew they weren’t getting Reid. I suspect they wanted Caddy or O’Sullivan but weren’t too upset with Kolt.

This draft had good quality down to about 40 but how many of them are mids/high flankers and ready to contribute? Looks to me they ran out after about 20. Putting a lot of faith in Moraes there, he’s the only one and might not be any good. Had we stayed at 32 we surely do what most clubs did in that range and take another long term tall. Pick 45 or whatever it would’ve been, Boxshall or Gross. Not buying that’s a game changer. The ability to get a first round mid/flanker is a potential difference maker both short and long term.

Lindsay’s not my favourite but clean kicking left footers usually work out at least to something useful.

At the end of the day the process stuff wasn’t going to make a big difference short or long term given they’ve added multiple quality picks at the top.

Yeah they might miss one top line pick if it’s all goes to crap but they can get back in drafts and replenish depth if it’s all over after this year.
 
Melbourne - C

Harvey Langford was a solid first selection for the Dees and though he is a more attack-minded player will help replace the physicality and solidity at the contest lost with Angus Brayshaw's retirement. No issue with that pick at all. I don't have Xavier Lindsay rated as high as where he went so I'm not a huge fan of the pick at a basic level. He's a very good player bursting from stoppage but I worry about his distribution and ability to stand up in the heat of the contest as an inside mid and think his play as a free-wheeling player is over-rated. Happy to be proven wrong, but the Dees could be left with a mediocre receiver type or an inside mid who is too slight for the role. Admittedly, those are worst-case scenarios. The main issue at play here is nothing to do with the player but the horrific concept of trading a future first rounder, the pick gained for Alex Neal-Bullen and other assets without knowing precisely what was available with the new pick well ahead of time. The Demons did this last year trading three picks for one in the hope they could win an unwinnable auction (never had the artillery to beat North) for Harley Reid and have executed his same stupid sequence once again (admittedly for a different purpose). It is just complete nonsense and a million miles away from best practice. This year they could have not got too excited too early and drafted say both Christian Moraes and my favourite player Polkinghorne as alternatives, all the while keeping their first pick next year. I hope Lindsay proves me wrong and is the second coming of Zach Merrett because that's what he needs to be to make sense of the madness. Either way, it's just horrific process and actually it was only the league rules that save clubs from themselves that stopped Melbourne trading away the future first that would have been Luke Jackson four or so years ago, effectively protecting a premiership and arguably saving the club. With their last pick, Melbourne drafted bash and crash 25yo VFL forward Aidan Johnson who kicked 17 goals this year. He needs to be close to best 22 very quickly for the pick to make any sense. At the moment it doesn't, though he certainly has a terrifying presence about him with his menacing cranium and uncircuitous location to the football when it's in flight. He's going to make defenders pay for getting in his way. Not matching for Riak Andrew was a good move, didn't have him in my top 150. A harsh grade for Melbourne but I punish them for the horrific process and pray they don't miss out on a Duursma, Cumming or Onley next year because of it. Not to mention the fact that Lindsay has to outplay the opportunity cost of not just that pick but two mid round picks this year as well. That's a huge ask for any player and not the sort of bargain a club should make without knowing exactly who, what and how good the player they are setting up for that challenge is when the deal is being struck.
I love the write up. I think you make some good points. The trading of picks away last year, orchestrated by Tim Lamb, to go up a couple of spots to select Tholstrup was a terrible move. Lamb basically said that he didn't rate anyone outside the top 20 which is very hard to understand.

I think Lindsay is actually pretty tough. He isn't a soft. I think the player you that you mentioned in Zac Merrett is a good one, but I also think Gulden is a good one. I have a lot more questions over Langford than Lindsay. Mostly speed. Lindsay is one of the best kicks in the draft, so what do you mean by you have issues with his distribution? I would push back a little bit on trading future 1's. I love that we do this. It fast tracks development. And why does the club need to know exactly which player they would get at 9? They would have their draft rankings and most likely rated the top 15 or so very highly so it's irrelevant to know exactly which player they're getting.

Regarding Aidan Johnson, surely he is better than Jefferson right now? Sure he may not have the goal totals but every single weakness that Jefferson has, is Johnsons' strength. But he's pick 68. It's a long shot anyway.

And Moraes, the guy is a complete bust. Horrendous foot skills and his decision making is equivalent to Oscar McDonald running out of defence. I do however believe that it would be nice to have a few more selections to allow for some more upside picks. Giving ourselves a chance to pick up a diamond in the rough like a mcVee (yes, I know he was technically a rookie pick) and hitting on a late pick can be such a massive boost to a list that we don't have a chance of achieving.
 
I love the write up. I think you make some good points. The trading of picks away last year, orchestrated by Tim Lamb, to go up a couple of spots to select Tholstrup was a terrible move. Lamb basically said that he didn't rate anyone outside the top 20 which is very hard to understand.

I think Lindsay is actually pretty tough. He isn't a soft. I think the player you that you mentioned in Zac Merrett is a good one, but I also think Gulden is a good one. I have a lot more questions over Langford than Lindsay. Mostly speed. Lindsay is one of the best kicks in the draft, so what do you mean by you have issues with his distribution? I would push back a little bit on trading future 1's. I love that we do this. It fast tracks development. And why does the club need to know exactly which player they would get at 9? They would have their draft rankings and most likely rated the top 15 or so very highly so it's irrelevant to know exactly which player they're getting.

Regarding Aidan Johnson, surely he is better than Jefferson right now? Sure he may not have the goal totals but every single weakness that Jefferson has, is Johnsons' strength. But he's pick 68. It's a long shot anyway.

And Moraes, the guy is a complete bust. Horrendous foot skills and his decision making is equivalent to Oscar McDonald running out of defence. I do however believe that it would be nice to have a few more selections to allow for some more upside picks. Giving ourselves a chance to pick up a diamond in the rough like a mcVee (yes, I know he was technically a rookie pick) and hitting on a late pick can be such a massive boost to a list that we don't have a chance of achieving.
Moraes is just an example and the term 'bust' in recruitment is usually used to describe failed high picks, not picks in the late 30s in the AFL. I think you miss the point and that is that I think making monumental trade-ups blind as to what is available doesn't make much sense to me. As an example, if you assume, that we had Tauru as a second option behind Langford at pick 5, by trading everything away for Pick 9, we had no option to try to tempt St Kilda to trade their second pick so we could get Tauru with exactly the same package. I just think it's awful practice irrespective of how good Lindsay becomes, he has to be a star for it to make sense. It also flies in the face of the notion that Jason Taylor is a very good lower draft rung recruiter. I have followed NFL GM mechanics for 30 years and watched very closely their drafts. Our, the AFL system is basically copied from it. No NFL teams (and it needs to be taken into account they spend millions on data and metrics) ever make forward moving trades without specific ironclad targets in mind, barring the very rare exception where they trade up to a top 2 or 3 pick to position themself early to get a potential franchise altering QB.
 
Not sure a guy drafted with 68 needs to do anything more than play a few games for it to be a success. And coming in at 25 he’s got plenty of time if he’s around the level.



The trade for the Jackson pick was a live deal at the draft for Butters, not sure our fate would’ve been worse with him. Reckon we could’ve found a ruck/forward elsewhere and had another A grade mid.

We also did a 3 for 1 deal when Jackson left so we’ve had some picks to play with. Some bad contacts have hurt but they’ve backed in their 3rd and 4th year kids to fill depth/fringe roles.

Last years draft ran out at 30, I’d have preferred to just trade the spare picks for future stuff but the offers weren’t going to be good. They knew they weren’t getting Reid. I suspect they wanted Caddy or O’Sullivan but weren’t too upset with Kolt.

This draft had good quality down to about 40 but how many of them are mids/high flankers and ready to contribute? Looks to me they ran out after about 20. Putting a lot of faith in Moraes there, he’s the only one and might not be any good. Had we stayed at 32 we surely do what most clubs did in that range and take another long term tall. Pick 45 or whatever it would’ve been, Boxshall or Gross. Not buying that’s a game changer. The ability to get a first round mid/flanker is a potential difference maker both short and long term.

Lindsay’s not my favourite but clean kicking left footers usually work out at least to something useful.

At the end of the day the process stuff wasn’t going to make a big difference short or long term given they’ve added multiple quality picks at the top.

Yeah they might miss one top line pick if it’s all goes to crap but they can get back in drafts and replenish depth if it’s all over after this year.
Last year's draft did not run out at 30. A Premiership player went at 31, Angus Hastie, Archie Roberts, Shaun Mannagh, Cooper Simpson, Clay Hall, Kane McAuliffe, Joe Fonti, Joel Freijah, Hugo Garcia, Arie Schoenmaker, Calsher Dear and Lawson Humphries all went post 30 and quite a few are yet to be exposed. We traded the pick St Kilda used for Darcy Wilson for Tholstrup and gave up two other useful picks. St Kilda took the complete opposite approach and ended up with Wilson, Hastie, Garcia and Schoenmaker who all are going to be at least handy players. I know circumstances are different club to club and Tholstrup is a likeable prospect but the club had no certainty he would be there anyway. Nor did they know he wouldn't have lasted a few picks later. If they didn't like the draft, why not trade 2nd and 3rd for a future 2nd this year. Again I think it's bad process. The club is basically saying they would rather anyone of the four or so players likely to be there at that spot rather than a similar player and let Jason Taylor have a few cracks in the later rounds.

We had the Jackson pick because we finished third bottom the season before and because we weren't allowed to trade another future pick having exhausted our allocation of future trades in that cycle. He ended up being an incredibly important premiership ingredient and we have never been the same side since his departure.

If we finish bottom five again this year, what then?
 
Moraes is just an example and the term 'bust' in recruitment is usually used to describe failed high picks, not picks in the late 30s in the AFL. I think you miss the point and that is that I think making monumental trade-ups blind as to what is available doesn't make much sense to me. As an example, if you assume, that we had Tauru as a second option behind Langford at pick 5, by trading everything away for Pick 9, we had no option to try to tempt St Kilda to trade their second pick so we could get Tauru with exactly the same package. I just think it's awful practice irrespective of how good Lindsay becomes, he has to be a star for it to make sense. It also flies in the face of the notion that Jason Taylor is a very good lower draft rung recruiter. I have followed NFL GM mechanics for 30 years and watched very closely their drafts. Our, the AFL system is basically copied from it. No NFL teams (and it needs to be taken into account they spend millions on data and metrics) ever make forward moving trades without specific ironclad targets in mind, barring the very rare exception where they trade up to a top 2 or 3 pick to position themself early to get a potential franchise altering QB.
I get what you're saying but how about just taking the 9th best player with the 9th best pick? If they rate all of those players then that's all that matters. So in your example, okay, we miss out on Tauru and we get who we rate at 9 and we're super excited with that. You don't trade in for a higher pick to know exactly who you're going to get, unless you're trading to pick 1. Hell, Melbourne didn't even know if Adelaide was going to choose Draper or Langford until basically the day before the draft. So how do you expect a club to know exactly which player will be available to them?

Lindsay doesn't have to be a star. Firstly, the players you mentioned like Moraes, Polkinghorne etc. will most likely be spuds. So now it just comes down to our first rounder next season. And that's a 50/50. It would only backfire if we finish bottom 4. But then what price to put on development and getting 1 year of development under their belt. Imagine being 1 year behind and picking up Windsor this year, like arggh, it's such a slow rebuild and in my opinion when you're a team that loses to freo by 100, gets embarrassed by WCE, and almost lose to North then you're rebuilding. It may be a mini rebuild but a rebuild nonetheless so I personally like fast tracking it.

In NFL, the player are significantly older, the recruiters know what they're getting when drafting them. In the AFL, they have to forecast them from teenagers. A much harder challenge. Because of this, it's worth paying up for more 'known commodities'. In the NBA I'd say they do trades very similar to how we attack the draft. Trading away multiple picks for an established player because they understand that 1 superstar changes the franchise. If Lindsay does turn into a Merrett/Gulden then that's a game changer in the mould of Petracca and there's more chance of that happening than even more speculative picks in the 40's.
 
I get what you're saying but how about just taking the 9th best player with the 9th best pick? If they rate all of those players then that's all that matters. So in your example, okay, we miss out on Tauru and we get who we rate at 9 and we're super excited with that. You don't trade in for a higher pick to know exactly who you're going to get, unless you're trading to pick 1. Hell, Melbourne didn't even know if Adelaide was going to choose Draper or Langford until basically the day before the draft. So how do you expect a club to know exactly which player will be available to them?

Lindsay doesn't have to be a star. Firstly, the players you mentioned like Moraes, Polkinghorne etc. will most likely be spuds. So now it just comes down to our first rounder next season. And that's a 50/50. It would only backfire if we finish bottom 4. But then what price to put on development and getting 1 year of development under their belt. Imagine being 1 year behind and picking up Windsor this year, like arggh, it's such a slow rebuild and in my opinion when you're a team that loses to freo by 100, gets embarrassed by WCE, and almost lose to North then you're rebuilding. It may be a mini rebuild but a rebuild nonetheless so I personally like fast tracking it.

In NFL, the player are significantly older, the recruiters know what they're getting when drafting them. In the AFL, they have to forecast them from teenagers. A much harder challenge. Because of this, it's worth paying up for more 'known commodities'. In the NBA I'd say they do trades very similar to how we attack the draft. Trading away multiple picks for an established player because they understand that 1 superstar changes the franchise. If Lindsay does turn into a Merrett/Gulden then that's a game changer in the mould of Petracca and there's more chance of that happening than even more speculative picks in the 40's.
Actually, the advanced analytics in the NFL say that the clubs even in that league get so many draft picks wrong that trading up in basically all circumstances is a mistake and to mitigate against that actually having the most picks (i.e the most opportunities to strike gold) is the optimum strategy. Compulsory lists sizes prevent that strategy's deployment in the AFL.

Your first paragraph echoes my point and leads to this question, why make the trade a month before when you don't know who will be there at 9, when you can make it on the night. Maybe five players you like are there at 9 and you can trade for pick 14 instead and not spend so many assets, keeping some to trade forward or just retain and pick, understanding that using points as a measure (yes, a mostly flawed metric) we have lost out in the trade in terms of points the value of a pick 7 meaning that we have traded over 3300 points for 1800 points of a player who we couldn't be certain who it would be at the time of the draft. What would have happened if Richmond picked Lindsay instead of Smillie and we didn't like him. Oh we take Allan, do we, a player we could have traded for at Pick 15 in theory. It's just horrific process anyway you slice it and at some point it will blow up.
 
Actually, the advanced analytics in the NFL say that the clubs even in that league get so many draft picks wrong that trading up in basically all circumstances is a mistake and to mitigate against that actually having the most picks (i.e the most opportunities to strike gold) is the optimum strategy. Compulsory lists sizes prevent that strategy's deployment in the AFL.

Your first paragraph echoes my point and leads to this question, why make the trade a month before when you don't know who will be there at 9, when you can make it on the night. Maybe five players you like are there at 9 and you can trade for pick 14 instead and not spend so many assets, keeping some to trade forward or just retain and pick, understanding that using points as a measure (yes, a mostly flawed metric) we have lost out in the trade in terms of points the value of a pick 7 meaning that we have traded over 3300 points for 1800 points of a player who we couldn't be certain who it would be at the time of the draft. What would have happened if Richmond picked Lindsay instead of Smillie and we didn't like him. Oh we take Allan, do we, a player we could have traded for at Pick 15 in theory. It's just horrific process anyway you slice it and at some point it will blow up.
Because a month before the draft they do know who will be there. They would've had their rolling rankings, looked at their list and seen that they will get a player that they really like at pick 9 regardless of which players are picked before them. Doing the trade a day before the draft would obviously narrow down the pool of likely players available at that pick but it makes 0 difference if they rate the first 25 players really highly for instance.

Also, if Melb waited, Essendon trade it to another club as they were shopping it around. Yes I agree, in a perfect world, it's nice to get a trade done closer to the draft but these picks don't come up for trade often. It's a gamble the club clearly didn't want to take. And I'm glad they didn't personally because I'm thrilled with Lindsay.

But I will say, in your example if you do the trade a month before the trade and then realise the guys you want are at pick 14 range then clubs can trade that to us still. so it's not like you lose trade freedom. You gain it by having the pick 9 and having time for other clubs to come for it.

Also in your example, you have pick 9 but you like 5 guys so why don't you go to pick 14 etc. Like it's nice to have some freedom to be able to choose. 9 is still better than 14 because you get the choice of the 5 players instead of just taking who you're left with. There's no way, 5 players are going to be ranked all perfectly even.

In your example if Rich picked Lindsay, we probably would've taken Allen, because we rated him at 9. clubs are reaching for players all through the draft. GWS are picking guys like Angove the 20's that were rated in the 50's. You don't see them trading out to pick 45 to get Angove. Richmond are taking Jonty Faul at 14 (didn't want to risk not getting him at 21). There is risks in not getting your guys and most of the time, you've just got to reach. In your example, your saying that every club who picks a guy earlier than the consensus should live trade (or a few days before) to get a pick later in order to maximise points. it's just no practical.
 
Last year's draft did not run out at 30. A Premiership player went at 31, Angus Hastie, Archie Roberts, Shaun Mannagh, Cooper Simpson, Clay Hall, Kane McAuliffe, Joe Fonti, Joel Freijah, Hugo Garcia, Arie Schoenmaker, Calsher Dear and Lawson Humphries all went post 30 and quite a few are yet to be exposed
Freijah, Humphries and Dear are the real names there and not even the Hawks knew what they had in Dear. Humphries was the second last pick in the draft so it was hardly a case of needing to keep a good pick for him. Wells magic is really quantifiable.
If they didn't like the draft, why not trade 2nd and 3rd for a future 2nd this year
That’s what I’d have done but it would’ve been future 3rds and 4ths, no one bought back in to last years draft with a future 2nd. Only Essendon moving one pick at the top.


We had the Jackson pick because we finished third bottom the season before and because we weren't allowed to trade another future pick having exhausted our allocation of future trades in that cycle. He ended up being an incredibly important premiership ingredient and we have never been the same side since his departure.
I’m not sure this is right, we had 2 firsts in 2015 so we’re eligible to trade a first in 2018. Port simply said no to the Butters trade. And Butters would’ve been what? Chop liver?

If we finish bottom five again this year, what then?
If this era is over then so be it, we trade Tracc and/or Oliver who will recoup plenty of mid-late picks and pivot to the under 22 to era.

This isn’t multiple firsts and seconds for Taranto and Hopper.

We miss out on potentially one high pick (in a highly compromised draft) but unless we’re bottom 3 or so and get in ahead of all the academy talent we might be getting a lesser prospect than Lindsay. Bounce back and play finals and at least of pick we’ll come out well ahead with the first rounder.
 
Richmond - A

To walk away with eight players that I would have inside my top 40-45 in a good draft is clearly a great result for the Tigers and I wish one of my all-time favourite players and heroes, Adem Yze, well in this rebuild. Lalor was the right pick, right time for Richmond. He kicks with penetration, is hard-at-it and good overhead. No certainty he emerges as the draft's best player though. It will be interesting to see how they use Smillie, a prodigious talent in a shape and style you don't often see. Could be the next David Mundy. I love the pick of Hotton who I rated easily in the top five pre-injury and may have gone number one with any luck. I couldn't get Faull up that high but they obviously like his physically and the fact he is ready to go and a fit next to Tom Lynch. Trainor and Armstrong are good picks at their spots as long-term spine players at either end and Sims was a good pick too. I rated him around there and was surprised at the notion he may slide as he is exactly the type AFL clubs covet. Faull, Armstrong and Sims will fit as a forward trident down the track with their complimentary attributes. Alger was a good pick late as they needed some tricks inside 50. My issue with what the Tigers have done is they may have overdone their key forward stocks, what if they are the best available types when their picks come next year? There is also no real outside run aside from Hotton who likely won't be a factor until 2025. That was in some ways more because of the way the draft fell and it enabled/wedged in some ways the Tigers to pick the key position carcass of the draft. It's not a bad thing but it might be problematic down the track. Still a very good haul from Richmond all the same.

Awesome write-up; here's my response to some of your concerns (I'm also aware that you gave my team an A so it's a lot of praise).

Regarding the concerns about over-drafting KPPs, I suspect Richmond went with the best available players, and that's where those players fell. It's hard to develop and evaluate midfielders if they don't have players to kick to. I also think that in modern times, the trend is for the top ten of any draft to be mainly filled with midfielders anyway, especially in an era where the midfield dominates football games. I think Richmond picked a KPD as the team isn't convinced Gibcus has the skills or durability for modern football.

But I do get your point, and I'd hate for a Lance Franklin type to emerge, only for Richmond to say, " Oh, sorry, we have Faull."

In general, though, I think Richmond can't be too cute and just needs to pick the best available. Next year, with two first-round picks, I think Richmond will pick two more midfielders, as they tend to be the most valuable and important players on the team. If they can get the quality of players in 2025 that they got in the top ten this year, it would be a good result.

As for outside types, I did wonder that, but even if Hotton was available day one of the 2025 season, he would struggle to get outside supply in a midfield of Taranto (injured for much of 2024), Hopper (consistently injured), Prestia (consistently... consistently injured?) Dow, and that's about it. Richmond traded away the players who got the third, fourth, and fifth most contested possessions this year, and this is the side that won two games. So it'd be hard to evaluate an outside type anyway, and they may struggle to develop in a team that looks very bare bones (and either does not develop or does not look good anyway) in a team that is expecting either another wooden spoon or something close to it.
 
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