Certified Legendary Thread Days since Essendon last won a final

[Art Vandelay_]

Ha! even the AFL getting in on the act

 

[sthmelb_dimmies]

Statistically to not win a final in 20 years is roughly 0.00019816981 (or 1 in 5,046).

(10/16)^6 x 11/17 x (12/18)^13

That’s the worst methodology I’ve ever seen

 

[Paddy_Mac]

That’s the worst methodology I’ve ever seen

show me a better way

 

[Clark G]

That North Melbourne loss was special let me tell ya

If you mean this, it was an entertaining game:

 

[Shane Heard]

View attachment 2100444

My expression seeing that. Thanks a lot.

 

[Whiskers]

The top 4 worst teams that haven’t won a final for at least 3000 days.

Essendon
North
GC (never even played one)
Hawthorn

 

[Woolly Mammoth]

lol a bit harsh from triple M, in all fairness the fact that Joe Misiti

Joe Misiti

Age

49

Ht

186cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.8

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

9.6

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

1.5

3star

No current season stats available

D

22.2

5star

K

15.6

5star

HB

6.6

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

0.6

3star

is for some inexplicable reason depicted as an obese ranga in the old AFL playstation game is not strictly speaking Essendon's fault.

 

[Saveloy Rockstar]

You better tell Triple M that

Congratulations, you just sealed the deal of winning the inaugural David King medal !

lol not even close. You and little z will be sharing it

Statistically to not win a final in 20 years is roughly 0.00019816981 (or 1 in 5,046).

(10/16)^6 x 11/17 x (12/18)^13

It’s worse than that because they had 8 shots at it

 

[Handsuper47]

If you mean this, it was an entertaining game:

I'm sure you found all our premiership wins just as entertaining, right? Must suck being stuck in the wilderness I can remember it like yesterday

 

[10571z]

They are to worried clinging onto people like Dodoro and Sheedy than moving forward. Hopefully they have shed the dead weight now.

 

[AvantGardener]

zackah who moved this here

 

[zackah]

zackah who moved this here

Flogs

 

[sthmelb_dimmies]

show me a better way

You’re ignoring the whole finals series.

For each season (let’s take one where there’s a final 8), you have to look at the likelihood of winning a final in the series.

Rememeb, finishing top 4 gives 2 chances to win a final. So:

P(win 1 final | finish top 4) = P(win QF) + P(win SF | lose QF).

Assuming 50% win chances, that’s 0.5 + 0.25 = 0.75

P(win at least 1 from top 4) = 0.75* 4/18 = 0.16

Then from position 5-8:

P(win at least 1 from 5-8) = 0.5 * 4/18 = 0.11


Then add them, assuming equal likelihood of finishing top 4 vs 5-8:

P(make finals and win at least 1 game) = 0.5*0.16 + 0.5*0.11 = 0.135

Now iterate for the other 19 seasons

 

[sthmelb_dimmies]

You’re ignoring the whole finals series.

For each season (let’s take one where there’s a final 8), you have to look at the likelihood of winning a final in the series.

Rememeb, finishing top 4 gives 2 chances to win a final. So:

P(win 1 final | finish top 4) = P(win QF) + P(win SF | lose QF).

Assuming 50% win chances, that’s 0.5 + 0.25 = 0.75

P(win at least 1 from top 4) = 0.75* 4/18 = 0.16

Then from position 5-8:

P(win at least 1 from 5-8) = 0.5 * 4/18 = 0.11


Then add them, assuming equal likelihood of finishing top 4 vs 5-8:

P(make finals and win at least 1 game) = 0.5*0.16 + 0.5*0.11 = 0.135

Now iterate for the other 19 seasons

Ok I’m bored so I’ll finish.

Above is the chance of winning at least 1 final in the 18 club season. So not winning is 1 - 0.135 = 86%

The likelihood in the 16 club season is 88%, and 17 club 89%

So pulling this together over 20 seasons, the chance Essendon never won a final in that period is 6.2%.

Ie 1 in 16.

Paddy_Mac youre out by > 300x

 

[Truetiger]

Happy 20th Birthday, Essendon's last finals victory

Let’s hope for another 20 Years.

 

[Truetiger]

Let’s take a vote who feels sorry for zackah and his poor Essendon side. Someone needs to add a poll.

 

[Chief]

Ok I’m bored so I’ll finish.

Above is the chance of winning at least 1 final in the 18 club season. So not winning is 1 - 0.135 = 86%

The likelihood in the 16 club season is 88%, and 17 club 89%

So pulling this together over 20 seasons, the chance Essendon never won a final in that period is 6.2%.

Ie 1 in 16.

Paddy_Mac youre out by > 300x

HIs sounds way more fun to quote, though.

 

[Wosh]

Should change the thread title to Years Since Essendon Last Won a Final
Bay flogs will be running out of fingers, toes, and heads to count.

 

[sthmelb_dimmies]

HIs sounds way more fun to quote, though.

Hi Chief!

 

[Mofra]

Should change the thread title to Years Since Essendon Last Won a Final
Bay flogs will be running out of fingers, toes, and heads to count.

If I unzip my fly I can count to 21 quite easily

 

[Wallaby]

If I unzip my fly I can count to 21 quite easily

And probably quite quickly, too.

 

[Chief]

If I unzip my fly I can count to 21 quite easily

23 for me.

 

[Mofra]

23 for me.

I've seen.
It's spectacular

 

[Truetiger]

Should change the thread title to Years Since Essendon Last Won a Final
Bay flogs will be running out of fingers, toes, and heads to count.

Can we add a poll please Who feels sorry for Essendon or something.

 

[frggr]

Days since Spreaders won the DKM -23