Opinion "Help me out where I need faith!" - The Statistical Data Thread

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The Power averaged 59.3 inside 50s per game, ranked no.1 in the AFL. and
48.9 – The number of inside 50s Port Adelaide conceded per game in 2017 – the least in the AFL

Yet we finished 7th. Shows we have a lot of work to do on skills to take advantage of these 2 stats.

And game plan and structure. Rockliff, Motlop and Watts should help.

Rockliff and Motlop will allow Gray and Wingard to play more I50 and Watts will improve delivery I50 laying as a high CHF and make Dixon more dangerous by taking a key defender and Marshalls development and him playing as a 3rd tall foward.

Hopefully we direct our entries are to the hot spot to a forward line with Dixon, Marshall, Gray and Wingard not the kicking to the pocket crap of this year.
 
The Power averaged 59.3 inside 50s per game, ranked no.1 in the AFL. and
48.9 – The number of inside 50s Port Adelaide conceded per game in 2017 – the least in the AFL

Yet we finished 7th. Shows we have a lot of work to do on skills to take advantage of these 2 stats.
Yes, but as per usual now when discussing 2017, it’d be interesting to see where we rated against the competition versus top 8 sides. I’d imagine all our ranks go down.
 
Yes, but as per usual now when discussing 2017, it’d be interesting to see where we rated against the competition versus top 8 sides. I’d imagine all our ranks go down.

I'm not going to go through the entire top eight, but you can get an idea:

Port Adelaide - 10 matches

vs Sydney - 43 to 36
vs Adelaide - 58 to 53
vs GWS - 51 to 63
vs West Coast - 68 to 39
vs Geelong - 44 to 58
vs Essendon - 51 to 67
vs Richmond - 67 to 52
vs West Coast - 60 to 42
vs Adelaide - 31 to 81
vs West Coast - 63 to 46

53.6 inside 50s

53.7 inside 50s conceded

vs

Richmond - 11 matches

vs West Coast - 63 to 56
vs Adelaide - 50 to 60
vs GWS - 61 to 45
vs Essendon - 71 to 42
vs Sydney - 48 to 55
vs Port - 52 to 67
vs GWS - 61 to 51
vs Geelong - 55 to 58
vs Geelong - 57 to 38
vs GWS - 56 to 59
vs Adelaide - 58 to 49

57.4 inside 50s (this was bumped up by their finals campaign. We would have done the same)

52.7 inside 50s conceded (their team defence was their weapon)

Adelaide - 13 matches

vs GWS - 65 to 47
vs Port - 53 to 58
vs Essendon - 63 to 47
vs Richmond - 60 to 50
vs Geelong - 52 to 51
vs Geelong - 48 to 42
vs Port - 81 to 31
vs Essendon - 62 to 47
vs Sydney - 63 to 42
vs West Coast - 53 to 50
vs GWS - 52 to 52
vs Geelong - 52 to 49
vs Richmond - 49 to 58

57.9 inside 50s

48 inside 50s conceded (it's the forward line that's good, not the defence)

Geelong - 12 matches

vs Essendon - 58 to 47
vs Port - 58 to 44
vs Adelaide - 51 to 52
vs West Coast - 43 to 59
vs GWS - 59 to 52
vs Adelaide - 42 to 48
vs Sydney - 48 to 47
vs Richmond - 58 to 55
vs GWS - 49 to 51
vs Richmond - 38 to 57
vs Sydney - 53 to 41
vs Adelaide - 49 to 52

50.5 inside 50s (ratshit, didn't deserve to be top four)

50.4 inside 50s conceded (ratshit, didn't deserve to be top four)

GWS - 14 matches

vs Adelaide - 47 to 65
vs Port - 63 to 51
vs Sydney - 56 to 41
vs Richmond - 45 to 61
vs West Coast - 56 to 43
vs Essendon - 54 to 45
vs Geelong - 52 to 59
vs Sydney - 59 to 50
vs Richmond - 51 to 61
vs West Coast - 59 to 48
vs Geelong - 51 to 49
vs Adelaide - 52 to 52
vs West Coast - 59 to 47
vs Richmond - 59 to 56

54.5 inside 50s

52 inside 50s conceded

We were about on par with the top eight when we had to play them.
 

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I'm not going to go through the entire top eight, but you can get an idea:
Port Adelaide - 10 matches
vs Sydney - 43 to 36
......
vs Essendon - 51 to 67
vs Richmond - 67 to 52
vs Adelaide - 31 to 81
53.6 inside 50s
53.7 inside 50s conceded.
Change that Adelaide result which was a massive difference and it looks better than par. if it was 50 to 69 ie similar to Essendon it becomes approx 55 v 52.5.
 
Change that Adelaide result which was a massive difference and it looks better than par. if it was 50 to 69 ie similar to Essendon it becomes approx 55 v 52.5.

Second Showdown was clearly an outlier. Median is 54.5 to 52.5.
 
Champion data reckons we have 16 players either elite or above average. I have talked about my best 16 not best 22 before as I don't reckon those last 6 spots in a side are very secure. Form and injuries and father time affect how effective those bottom 6 are and its the bottom 6 that determine how far you go.

A Crows v Power Showdown grand final is on the cards in 2018, according to Champion Data
A HISTORIC Showdown grand final is on the cards in 2018, with Champion Data rating Port Adelaide and Adelaide’s player lists in the top three in the AFL.

After an in-depth analysis of every club, the league's official number cruncher has ranked the Power’s reconstructed list at No. 2 and the grand finalist Crows at No. 3. Under the formula, Sydney, which lost its first six games last season before storming home to finish fifth, has the strongest list. Port, which just missed the top four at the end of the minor round last season before falling to seventh after suffering a heartbreaking extra-time loss to West Coast in the elimination final at Adelaide Oval, is poised to make a quantum leap after reloading in the off-season, according to Champion.

Champion believes Port has the star power to contend for next year's flag, rating 16 of its players as elite or above average for their position. This is the second-best number in the league, behind only the Swans, with 17. Six Power players are rated as elite (in the top 10 per cent in the competition) for their position — triple club champion Robbie Gray, All-Australian ruckman Paddy Ryder, leading goalkicker Charlie Dixon, swingman Justin Westhoff, captain Travis Boak and silky-skilled playmaker Chad Wingard.

Another 10 are rated as above average (top 35 per cent) for their position — recruits Motlop and Watts, midfielders Ollie Wines and Jared Polec, forwards Sam Gray and Jake Neade and defenders Tom Jonas, Hamish Hartlett, Matthew Broadbent and Jasper Pittard. The annual ratings are based on a two-year period, with a 75 per cent weighting given to 2017.........
A Crows v Power Showdown grand final is on the cards in 2018, according to Champion Data

My best 16
defence - Jonas Clurey, Howard, DBJ ( only Jonas is above average according to CD)
fowards - Dixon, Wingard, Boak, Robbie Gray ( all are elite according to CD) Watts (above average)

Mids - Ryder, Westhoff, (elite) Wines, Motlop, Polec ( above average) Ebert, Rockliff

So they include Sam Gray, Jake Neade and Hartlett, Broadbent and Pittard. Not sure how Jake, Broadie and Pittard make it with a 75% weighting to 2017 and given their form and number of games they played.
 
Champion data reckons we have 16 players either elite or above average. I have talked about my best 16 not best 22 before as I don't reckon those last 6 spots in a side are very secure. Form and injuries and father time affect how effective those bottom 6 are and its the bottom 6 that determine how far you go.

A Crows v Power Showdown grand final is on the cards in 2018, according to Champion Data
A HISTORIC Showdown grand final is on the cards in 2018, with Champion Data rating Port Adelaide and Adelaide’s player lists in the top three in the AFL.

After an in-depth analysis of every club, the league's official number cruncher has ranked the Power’s reconstructed list at No. 2 and the grand finalist Crows at No. 3. Under the formula, Sydney, which lost its first six games last season before storming home to finish fifth, has the strongest list. Port, which just missed the top four at the end of the minor round last season before falling to seventh after suffering a heartbreaking extra-time loss to West Coast in the elimination final at Adelaide Oval, is poised to make a quantum leap after reloading in the off-season, according to Champion.

Champion believes Port has the star power to contend for next year's flag, rating 16 of its players as elite or above average for their position. This is the second-best number in the league, behind only the Swans, with 17. Six Power players are rated as elite (in the top 10 per cent in the competition) for their position — triple club champion Robbie Gray, All-Australian ruckman Paddy Ryder, leading goalkicker Charlie Dixon, swingman Justin Westhoff, captain Travis Boak and silky-skilled playmaker Chad Wingard.

Another 10 are rated as above average (top 35 per cent) for their position — recruits Motlop and Watts, midfielders Ollie Wines and Jared Polec, forwards Sam Gray and Jake Neade and defenders Tom Jonas, Hamish Hartlett, Matthew Broadbent and Jasper Pittard. The annual ratings are based on a two-year period, with a 75 per cent weighting given to 2017.........
A Crows v Power Showdown grand final is on the cards in 2018, according to Champion Data

My best 16
defence - Jonas Clurey, Howard, DBJ ( only Jonas is above average according to CD)
fowards - Dixon, Wingard, Boak, Robbie Gray ( all are elite according to CD) Watts (above average)

Mids - Ryder, Westhoff, (elite) Wines, Motlop, Polec ( above average) Ebert, Rockliff

So they include Sam Gray, Jake Neade and Hartlett, Broadbent and Pittard. Not sure how Jake, Broadie and Pittard make it with a 75% weighting to 2017 and given their form and number of games they played.
Yeah strange about a few of the ratings but Carn Port..the pressure's on now.
 
I think a major issue is whether our team can gel enough over this pre-season to get the best out of themselves, or whether it could take another year or two. That is where the Crows have a decided advantage, a fairly settled team playing a game plan they understand.
Whilst they're organised their achilles heel is pressure on their ball carrier and playing man on man. They zone very well.
They are also good at controlling the ball, often with short kicks. Start bombing it against them and your in trouble.
Richmond gave their ball carrier minimum time and space as well as playing on with controlled link up footy.
Their GF debacle might have serious consequences next year if the rest of the comp was taking notice of how Richmond dismantled them.
 
Port Adelaide - 10 matches

vs Sydney - 43 to 36
vs Adelaide - 58 to 53
vs GWS - 51 to 63
vs West Coast - 68 to 39
vs Geelong - 44 to 58
vs Essendon - 51 to 67
vs Richmond - 67 to 52
vs West Coast - 60 to 42
vs Adelaide - 31 to 81
vs West Coast - 63 to 46

53.6 inside 50s

53.7 inside 50s conceded

What was most worrying though was not the inside 50s but the inside 50s v rebound 50s. In the stat you provide we were on top 6 of those games and behind in 4. We lost 8 of them, 3 of them when we were ahead on inside 50s significantly by 29, 15 and 17. Hopefully Watts, Motlop and a more experienced Marshall will help in turning that around and will be able to stop the defenders who ran the ball out with ease. Of course if we still have the same get it and kick it plan then little will change.
 
Whilst they're organised their achilles heel is pressure on their ball carrier and playing man on man. They zone very well.
They are also good at controlling the ball, often with short kicks. Start bombing it against them and your in trouble.
Richmond gave their ball carrier minimum time and space as well as playing on with controlled link up footy.
Their GF debacle might have serious consequences next year if the rest of the comp was taking notice of how Richmond dismantled them.
Exactly what Melbourne did to them during H&A season, kicking something like 16 unanswered goals during the game. This was a week after NM beat them the same way, though both those wins were attributed by most to just tagging Sloane.
 
Whilst they're organised their achilles heel is pressure on their ball carrier and playing man on man. They zone very well.
They are also good at controlling the ball, often with short kicks. Start bombing it against them and your in trouble.
Richmond gave their ball carrier minimum time and space as well as playing on with controlled link up footy.
Their GF debacle might have serious consequences next year if the rest of the comp was taking notice of how Richmond dismantled them.
Yeah, but everyone knew this was their weakness already. heck, we uneducated fans in the outer last year called for our players to pressure them and tag Sloane both games and we didn’t do either (or did poorly). Hopefully it was more lack of intent last year and the GF result corrects that, then inability to.
 

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What was most worrying though was not the inside 50s but the inside 50s v rebound 50s. In the stat you provide we were on top 6 of those games and behind in 4. We lost 8 of them, 3 of them when we were ahead on inside 50s significantly by 29, 15 and 17. Hopefully Watts, Motlop and a more experienced Marshall will help in turning that around and will be able to stop the defenders who ran the ball out with ease. Of course if we still have the same get it and kick it plan then little will change.
The thread title says it all and as for ^ spot on.
 
Yeah, but everyone knew this was their weakness already. glory be, we uneducated fans in the outer last year called for our players to pressure them and tag Sloane both games and we didn’t do either (or did poorly). Hopefully it was more lack of intent last year and the GF result corrects that, then inability to.

Adelaide's list is one that is built around the belief systems of Matt Rendell (and his protege Hamish Ogilvie) and Neil Craig - a ruck and a ruck rover - who built a list based around multiple key position players in the forward line receiving the ball from defenders and midfielders who push up the ground in waves on counter-attack. Their style requires players to stick to predetermined positions relative to where the ball is located so that when their players are pressured at a stoppage, they can find their teammates with dump kicks because those teammates know that is what will be coming. How many times did Matt Crouch kick around a blind corner and spot up a teammate who was dropping into the space?

Then they farm the ball to their outside runners (Atkins et al). It's not surprise that when those kicks didn't come off anymore in the GF, Atkins had his worst game for the year.

At the start of the year, they combined this with a midfield that ran both ways, sometimes dropping a player behind the ball to limit the effectiveness of sides that didn't have the ability to spot up targets. Because they operate with so many key forwards, they have the ability to rotate their bench heavily - all of Sloane, Matt Crouch and Brad Crouch averaged about 80% game time during the year. What happened when people started tagging Sloane was that his production numbers suffered, and Matt and Brad Crouch simply weren't able to pick up the slack because they were used to getting support from him.

So the solution Pyke came up with was to play another stoppage mid (Greenwood) and instead of telling Sloane to work through the tag while keeping in the midfield, he dropped him into other areas of the ground - which limited the effectiveness of the tag because the Adelaide midfield was back up to 'optimal efficiency'. It didn't matter that Greenwood didn't have the tank to play a whole game - he just needed to relieve the Crouch brothers.

Then, of course, Adelaide complained about the treatment Sloane was getting from taggers, and made sure to put him on the outside of contests from then on so the umpires could see the holding.

This is why it's not exclusively pressure, but team defence, that is the key. Richmond pressured their ball carrier, but they did so in a way that cut off the options of Adelaide players. They had a great intercept mark in Rance patrolling the down the line dump kick. They cut off the angles with their press and drew Adelaide into the deep pockets of the MCG. That's why the Crows' style works so well on Adelaide Oval - it's built for smaller grounds where their key forwards can come into play more readily.

It's no good everyone attacking and harassing the ball carrier if that player can simply execute a dump kick and find an open player. Pressure is about limiting options and creating turnovers through forced errors. That means that someone needs to be there to take advantage of the error just as much as there needs to be someone to force it to occur.
 
Adelaide's list is one that is built around the belief systems of Matt Rendell (and his protege Hamish Ogilvie) and Neil Craig - a ruck and a ruck rover - who built a list based around multiple key position players in the forward line receiving the ball from defenders and midfielders who push up the ground in waves on counter-attack. Their style requires players to stick to predetermined positions relative to where the ball is located so that when their players are pressured at a stoppage, they can find their teammates with dump kicks because those teammates know that is what will be coming. How many times did Matt Crouch kick around a blind corner and spot up a teammate who was dropping into the space?

Then they farm the ball to their outside runners (Atkins et al). It's not surprise that when those kicks didn't come off anymore in the GF, Atkins had his worst game for the year.

At the start of the year, they combined this with a midfield that ran both ways, sometimes dropping a player behind the ball to limit the effectiveness of sides that didn't have the ability to spot up targets. Because they operate with so many key forwards, they have the ability to rotate their bench heavily - all of Sloane, Matt Crouch and Brad Crouch averaged about 80% game time during the year. What happened when people started tagging Sloane was that his production numbers suffered, and Matt and Brad Crouch simply weren't able to pick up the slack because they were used to getting support from him.

So the solution Pyke came up with was to play another stoppage mid (Greenwood) and instead of telling Sloane to work through the tag while keeping in the midfield, he dropped him into other areas of the ground - which limited the effectiveness of the tag because the Adelaide midfield was back up to 'optimal efficiency'. It didn't matter that Greenwood didn't have the tank to play a whole game - he just needed to relieve the Crouch brothers.

Then, of course, Adelaide complained about the treatment Sloane was getting from taggers, and made sure to put him on the outside of contests from then on so the umpires could see the holding.

This is why it's not exclusively pressure, but team defence, that is the key. Richmond pressured their ball carrier, but they did so in a way that cut off the options of Adelaide players. They had a great intercept mark in Rance patrolling the down the line dump kick. They cut off the angles with their press and drew Adelaide into the deep pockets of the MCG. That's why the Crows' style works so well on Adelaide Oval - it's built for smaller grounds where their key forwards can come into play more readily.

It's no good everyone attacking and harassing the ball carrier if that player can simply execute a dump kick and find an open player. Pressure is about limiting options and creating turnovers through forced errors. That means that someone needs to be there to take advantage of the error just as much as there needs to be someone to force it to occur.

Do you mean having "spies" behind and around the pressure squad ready to recover the ball wherever it may be placed?
 
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Do you mean having "spies" behind abd around the pressure squad ready to recover the ball wherever it may be placed?

Yes, but not dedicated roles, just not everyone going in for the same contest. It's why we screwed the pooch against Essendon at Etihad - we had too many players wanting to 'get involved' by trying to rack up possessions rather than actually doing the team thing and holding back to cover their outlets.
 
I'm not going to go through the entire top eight, but you can get an idea:

Port Adelaide - 10 matches

vs Sydney - 43 to 36 (17.8 - win)
vs Adelaide - 58 to 53 (12.11 - loss)
vs GWS - 51 to 63 (11.15 - loss)
vs West Coast - 68 to 39 (12.15 - loss)
vs Geelong - 44 to 58 (11.13 - loss)
vs Essendon - 51 to 67 (8.13 - loss)
vs Richmond - 67 to 52 (8.15 - loss)
vs West Coast - 60 to 42 (18.12 - win)
vs Adelaide - 31 to 81 (7.4 - loss)
vs West Coast - 63 to 46 (10.16 - loss)

53.6 inside 50s

53.7 inside 50s conceded

We were about on par with the top eight when we had to play them.
Apart from the second showdown Adelaide disaster / anomaly
- 2 wins, 35 goals 20 behinds, 63% accuracy
- 7 losses, 72 goals, 98 behinds, 42% accuracy

Of course pressure on the day and opponent tactics play a part, but even 50% accuracy in those losses and we get West Coast, Geelong and Richmond at a minimum and the finals play out a lot differently.
 
Adelaide's list is one that is built around the belief systems of Matt Rendell (and his protege Hamish Ogilvie) and Neil Craig - a ruck and a ruck rover - who built a list based around multiple key position players in the forward line receiving the ball from defenders and midfielders who push up the ground in waves on counter-attack. Their style requires players to stick to predetermined positions relative to where the ball is located so that when their players are pressured at a stoppage, they can find their teammates with dump kicks because those teammates know that is what will be coming. How many times did Matt Crouch kick around a blind corner and spot up a teammate who was dropping into the space?

Then they farm the ball to their outside runners (Atkins et al). It's not surprise that when those kicks didn't come off anymore in the GF, Atkins had his worst game for the year.

At the start of the year, they combined this with a midfield that ran both ways, sometimes dropping a player behind the ball to limit the effectiveness of sides that didn't have the ability to spot up targets. Because they operate with so many key forwards, they have the ability to rotate their bench heavily - all of Sloane, Matt Crouch and Brad Crouch averaged about 80% game time during the year. What happened when people started tagging Sloane was that his production numbers suffered, and Matt and Brad Crouch simply weren't able to pick up the slack because they were used to getting support from him.

So the solution Pyke came up with was to play another stoppage mid (Greenwood) and instead of telling Sloane to work through the tag while keeping in the midfield, he dropped him into other areas of the ground - which limited the effectiveness of the tag because the Adelaide midfield was back up to 'optimal efficiency'. It didn't matter that Greenwood didn't have the tank to play a whole game - he just needed to relieve the Crouch brothers.

Then, of course, Adelaide complained about the treatment Sloane was getting from taggers, and made sure to put him on the outside of contests from then on so the umpires could see the holding.

This is why it's not exclusively pressure, but team defence, that is the key. Richmond pressured their ball carrier, but they did so in a way that cut off the options of Adelaide players. They had a great intercept mark in Rance patrolling the down the line dump kick. They cut off the angles with their press and drew Adelaide into the deep pockets of the MCG. That's why the Crows' style works so well on Adelaide Oval - it's built for smaller grounds where their key forwards can come into play more readily.

It's no good everyone attacking and harassing the ball carrier if that player can simply execute a dump kick and find an open player. Pressure is about limiting options and creating turnovers through forced errors. That means that someone needs to be there to take advantage of the error just as much as there needs to be someone to force it to occur.
Very good analysis of the way the Crows play .. :thumbsu:
 
Yes, but not dedicated roles, just not everyone going in for the same contest. It's why we screwed the pooch against Essendon at Etihad - we had too many players wanting to 'get involved' by trying to rack up possessions rather than actually doing the team thing and holding back to cover their outlets.

I think I have understood. Simplifying, the roles could/would switch if the pressure fails: the spies would become responsible for the contest, while others would become spies. Is that it?
 
I think I have understood. Simplifying, the roles could/would switch if the pressure fails: the spies would become responsible for the contest, while others would become spies. Is that it?

Now extrapolate that to everything we do - forward setups, defensive setups etc - and you’ll understand how Hinkley wants us to play. The roles don’t change, but the people who fill those roles do...and they do so dynamically as the game ebbs and flows.

It’s why you’ll find Westhoff pushing forward more and guys like Pittard, Hartlettband Broadbent dropping into attack when we are dominating possession, and why Dixon drops deep as the link man through midfield when we find ourselves locked in our defensive 50.

It’s why getting guys like Watts, Rockliff and Motlop was so important. As Motlop said, it’s not about one player trying to be the man, but about every player playing the role they find themselves in at any given moment.
 
Now extrapolate that to everything we do - forward setups, defensive setups etc - and you’ll understand how Hinkley wants us to play. The roles don’t change, but the people who fill those roles do...and they do so dynamically as the game ebbs and flows.

It’s why you’ll find Westhoff pushing forward more and guys like Pittard, Hartlettband Broadbent dropping into attack when we are dominating possession, and why Dixon drops deep as the link man through midfield when we find ourselves locked in our defensive 50.

It’s why getting guys like Watts, Rockliff and Motlop was so important. As Motlop said, it’s not about one player trying to be the man, but about every player playing the role they find themselves in at any given moment.

When I was in Academia, my study was on Law and social roles as the means of human interactions. Your posts look very familiar to me.
 
Boak still Elite?
Rockliff not above average?
Westhoff above average? What's his position as currently he doesn't have one!
I'd question Broadbent at above average
 
...

This is why it's not exclusively pressure, but team defence, that is the key. Richmond pressured their ball carrier, but they did so in a way that cut off the options of Adelaide players. They had a great intercept mark in Rance patrolling the down the line dump kick. They cut off the angles with their press and drew Adelaide into the deep pockets of the MCG. That's why the Crows' style works so well on Adelaide Oval - it's built for smaller grounds where their key forwards can come into play more readily.

It's no good everyone attacking and harassing the ball carrier if that player can simply execute a dump kick and find an open player. Pressure is about limiting options and creating turnovers through forced errors. That means that someone needs to be there to take advantage of the error just as much as there needs to be someone to force it to occur.

Absolutely right about team defence - the press and the pressure both have to be there. And to be successful, it needs 100% buy-in from each of the 22 players for 100% (or as close to it as humanly possible) of the game. If only 5 of the 6 forwards are harassing and pressuring their opponents and the 6th doesn't make the effort, or if one mid refuses to cover the "easy exit", the opposition will pick this up within minutes and exploit it. Then no matter how good the rest of the side is at applying the press, a competent opponent with a good attacking defender will consistently find a way through it (although a less competent opponent isn't able to punish you as badly - could this be one reason for our reputation as flat-track bullies?)

And it greatly helped Richmond to sustain their pressure over the game that the ball-use skills of Houli (clearly BOG) & Martin & others allowed them to score heavily. Sides will willingly "press and pressure" all game if they're seeing the rewards on the scoreboard; if their efforts aren't rewarded by goals, it's far more difficult, if not impossible, to sustain the defensive effort.

Perhaps for 2018 we've got the 22 (not 21 or 20) players who will all sustain the "press and pressure" effort, as well as the offensive skills to punish teams for the turnovers that result from that pressure.
 

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Opinion "Help me out where I need faith!" - The Statistical Data Thread

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