- Jan 22, 2015
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As we digest season 2023, one of the biggest questions is how would a fit Tom Lynch have changed our fortunes. I've been perusing the AFL tables to try and assess what his impact might have looked like had he not been injured.
Tommy has been more durable than I first thought, he has played 216 out of a possible 287 games since his debut in 2011. With us, he has played 85 out of a total of 111 possible games so around 3 out of every possible 4 games, take this season out of the calculations and it's 91% with us. There have been times when he hasn't been fully fit but still played though. When he plays, Richmond win or draw 60% of the time, when he does not, it slips to 50%
Lynch also contributes 2.38 goals a game and goal assists stand at around 0.53 goals per game. Directly he contributes approx 3 goals per game. This is significant, any player replacing him would have to kick 50 goals per season which is a big ask given the quality of player we have in the VFL.
I've attempted to deal with tangibles like actual goalkicking but there is a lot more that makes Tom Lynch valuable from a winning perspective. He draws the best defender and keeps them honest. This allows the 2nd and 3rd forward options a lesser opponent and therefore enabling us more goal output. There is also his contesting and bring the ball to ground thereby bringing the smaller forwards into the game, this is more difficult to quantify but could easily be an extra couple of goals per game. All up he's probably worth an extra 4 to 6 goals on average. In a tight competition like we've seen this season, it means the difference between finishing 12th and finishing in the top 4. Assuming his replacement still contributes I'd estimate Lynch's net difference to be at least 3 goals better than anyone else, so yes, he plays this year and we play finals easily. Interestingly another stat that came out of my analysis is that if Lynch kicks 3 or more goals a game, Richmond will win 77% of their games, even if they do lose they will not lose by much, so he is somewhat a barometer for the team.
Finally I couldn't let this go without measuring umpire treatment between the 2 teams he has played for. At Gold Coast, Frees for were 148 for and 155 against, at Richmond no surprises 99 for and 119 against.
Tommy has been more durable than I first thought, he has played 216 out of a possible 287 games since his debut in 2011. With us, he has played 85 out of a total of 111 possible games so around 3 out of every possible 4 games, take this season out of the calculations and it's 91% with us. There have been times when he hasn't been fully fit but still played though. When he plays, Richmond win or draw 60% of the time, when he does not, it slips to 50%
Did not play | Played | |||||
Draw | Loss | Win | Draw | Loss | Win | |
2019 | 6 | 19 | ||||
2020 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 14 | |
2021 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | |
2022 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 12 | |
2023 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
Totals | 1 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 29 | 53 |
Lynch also contributes 2.38 goals a game and goal assists stand at around 0.53 goals per game. Directly he contributes approx 3 goals per game. This is significant, any player replacing him would have to kick 50 goals per season which is a big ask given the quality of player we have in the VFL.
I've attempted to deal with tangibles like actual goalkicking but there is a lot more that makes Tom Lynch valuable from a winning perspective. He draws the best defender and keeps them honest. This allows the 2nd and 3rd forward options a lesser opponent and therefore enabling us more goal output. There is also his contesting and bring the ball to ground thereby bringing the smaller forwards into the game, this is more difficult to quantify but could easily be an extra couple of goals per game. All up he's probably worth an extra 4 to 6 goals on average. In a tight competition like we've seen this season, it means the difference between finishing 12th and finishing in the top 4. Assuming his replacement still contributes I'd estimate Lynch's net difference to be at least 3 goals better than anyone else, so yes, he plays this year and we play finals easily. Interestingly another stat that came out of my analysis is that if Lynch kicks 3 or more goals a game, Richmond will win 77% of their games, even if they do lose they will not lose by much, so he is somewhat a barometer for the team.
Finally I couldn't let this go without measuring umpire treatment between the 2 teams he has played for. At Gold Coast, Frees for were 148 for and 155 against, at Richmond no surprises 99 for and 119 against.