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Pav was supposedly "wanting to come home to Adelaide" almost every season, wasn't he?It was extremely dumb in hindsight when Pavlich was wanting to come home.
He never did, so I wonder how true all that talk really was.
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Pav was supposedly "wanting to come home to Adelaide" almost every season, wasn't he?It was extremely dumb in hindsight when Pavlich was wanting to come home.
From what I’ve read (including in his own words) there was a period between 2002-2003 where it was real. And never returned after that.Pav was supposedly "wanting to come home to Adelaide" almost every season, wasn't he?
He never did, so I wonder how true all that talk really was.
Draft picks are over rated.
The Crows gave up pick 5 for Izak Rankine, and good luck trying to get another kid the skill of Izak with pick 5 in the next 5 drafts.
Totally agree with this also, but even then there was angst among crows fans for giving up such a high pick. It was a no brainer trade and one that sets your club up for the next 10 years. The obsession people have on this forum with high draft picks vs known quantities is bizarre.Draft picks are over rated.
The Crows gave up pick 5 for Izak Rankine, and good luck trying to get another kid the skill of Izak with pick 5 in the next 5 drafts.
Shiny new toy syndromeTotally agree with this also, but even then there was angst among crows fans for giving up such a high pick. It was a no brainer trade and one that sets your club up for the next 10 years. The obsession people have on this forum with high draft picks vs known quantities is bizarre.
For Hawks I think Weddle as well is worth itAssuming that if you have a top 3 pick, you're a rebuilding club rather than a contender:
Adelaide - Rankine
Brisbane - Ashcroft
Carlton - Walsh, Curnow
Collingwood - N Daicos
Essendon - None
Fremantle - Treacy, Serong, Brayshaw, Jackson, Young
Geelong - Holmes
Gold Coast - B King, Anderson, Walter, Andrew, Rowell
GWS - T Green, Taylor, Cadman, Callaghan
Hawthorn - Day
Melbourne - Pickett
North Melbourne - Sheezel, Wardlaw, McKerrcher, Larkey, LDU
Port Adelaide - Butters, Rozee, JHF
Richmond - None
St Kilda - None
Sydney - Gulden, Warner, McDonald
West Coast - Reid, Allen
Western Bulldogs - Bontempelli, Jamarra, Darcy
GWS - Callaghan
Geelong - Holmes
Hawks - Day
Why's that, I could put forward strong arguments for all 3.These ones are crazy
Why's that, I could put forward strong arguments for all 3.
Very harsh on Callaghan, the 2021 draft had a very good top 5 and Callaghan probably rounds out the 5 but he is performing still at a high level, no one is arguing Wardlaws merits (which we shouldn't), statistical very similar impacts even though Callaghan doesn't get the same amount of Centre Bounce. 2021 draft you have guys like Nacios, JHF, Darcy and Mac Andrew who are all phenomenal, but that's a very strong top 5 stronger than most years.Callaghan - Was taken around pick 3 originally, hasn't quite lived up to that level yet and if he was traded now, you would not be giving up a pick 3 for him
Holmes - Good player whose value was artificially inflated by Danger's comparison of him to Judd. Simply not worth that much
Day - Gun, probably the only one who would get the closest to pick 3. Needs to have an All Australian year to solidify that value
Very harsh on Callaghan, the 2021 draft had a very good top 5 and Callaghan probably rounds out the 5 but he is performing still at a high level, no one is arguing Wardlaws merits (which we shouldn't), statistical very similar impacts even though Callaghan doesn't get the same amount of Centre Bounce. 2021 draft you have guys like Nacios, JHF, Darcy and Mac Andrew who are all phenomenal, but that's a very strong top 5 stronger than most years.
Holmes is still very underrated, statistical having a better season than guys like Bailey Dale, Houston, Blakey and is only 21 yrs old. Versatile and can play multiple positions, has pace and can break lines. Will likely make the AA squad and is in the mix for a HBF spot.
Obviously I'm biased when it comes to Day but the 2019 draft was amazing, like above regarding 2021s top end it's better than most years and deeper. It raises my eyebrows you have questions Days merits but not guys like Pickett, Young even Anderson who are all very comparable level talents from the same draft. Why have you singled him out. They are all worth it.
That's the thing, not all clubs would pay but they all could fetch it. Some players are worth more to different clubs and different systems.We can agree to disagree
There are other players on that original list i did not pick who are still dubious at pick 3. At the end of the day, some players are worth more to some clubs/fans than others
That's the thing, not all clubs would pay but they all could fetch it. Some players are worth more to different clubs and different systems.
You have singled out 3 players who are no more or less dubious than plenty on the list, and you claimed it was 'crazy' they were included. Anywho....
We can agree to disagree
There are other players on that original list i did not pick who are still dubious at pick 3. At the end of the day, some players are worth more to some clubs/fans than others
It seems as though you're arguing that 'this is generally what a big name yields at the trade table' (which isn't incorrect of course), whereas others (like me) are arguing that if you disregard all the barriers around player movement, if for whatever reason this player were available to be selected in the AFL draft, what selection would they command? And, to me, history suggests that probably two out of the top three won't end up being as good as Holmes or Day, so why wouldn't you take them instead, 10 years of a proven commodity ahead of 13 years of 'could be anything'? It's a no-brainer, for me at least.
List managers simply don't think this way.. AFL clubs tend to prefer to go to the draft, especially with a top 10 selection. It's viewed as the future for them.
Why would they trade the chance at drafting the next superstar for someone like a Holmes who was originally a pick 20 and has probably performed above that pick, but not certainly into the top 5 level of that draft... It just makes no sense
Based on the last 10 top 3 picks:
Holmes is better than 2 of those players (Phillips, Dow) and even with Callaghan.
- 2023: Nick Watson (Western Jets)
- 2022: Harry Sheezel (Sandringham Dragons)
- 2021: Finn Callaghan (Oakleigh Chargers)
- 2020: Will Phillips (Oakleigh Chargers)
- 2019: Luke Jackson (East Fremantle)
- 2018: Izak Rankine (West Adelaide)
- 2017: Paddy Dow (Bendigo Pioneers)
- 2016: Hugh McCluggage (North Ballarat Rebels)
- 2015: Callum Mills (North Shore)
- 2014: Angus Brayshaw (Sandringham Dragons)
Based on that, you have almost a 70% chance of drafting someone better than Holmes/Callghan with your pick 3
If you're taking Angus Brayshaw's completed career over 10-12 more years of Max Holmes, I'm not sure what to tell you.
That's all you took from it? Yawn
We'll see how many of that list make the AA squad. How many will win (or did win) their club's B&F at age 22 (in a side that could finish top 2)? Holmes looks likely to. And he would have been a walk-up in the 2022 premiership team, were it not for an injury in the PF.
Why have you included Watson, who wasn't the third pick last year? You're locking in that Watson is better than Holmes? He's not even averaging a goal per game. What makes McCluggage better than Holmes right now? Holmes is four years younger by the way. What makes Rankine better? Or Jackson? Or Mills, who's been a shadow of himself since returning this year?
Never mind that you've zeroed on pick #3 for some reason and not the top three picks. How does it look with the bigger sample size? Or going back further (like 2009-19), to include players who've completed the bulk of their careers, which gives some more meaningful evidence of what you get from a top three pick than a kid like Watson?
Never mind that you've zeroed on pick #3 for some reason and not the top three picks
Why have you included Watson, who wasn't the third pick last year? You're locking in that Watson is better than Holmes?
This really isn't a jerk off thread about Max Holmes ffs. Stop getting upset that i picked X player from your club.
If i don't rate Holmes as much as you then just get over it.
And Mills is an AA, Rising Star winner, BnF and captain of his club
Well if i don't think he's worth pick 3, he's certainly not worth pick 1 or 2 champ....
No worries, big rig. You made it about Holmes in post #42.
I also made it about Callaghan and Day, why didn't you get your knickers in a knot over them?