Pav was supposedly "wanting to come home to Adelaide" almost every season, wasn't he?
He never did, so I wonder how true all that talk really was.
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Opinion How many current players are actually worth a top 3 pick in a trade?
- Thread starter Makeshift Park
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He never did, so I wonder how true all that talk really was.
From what I’ve read (including in his own words) there was a period between 2002-2003 where it was real. And never returned after that.
- Aug 17, 2006
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Agree with this. On face value, I honestly think there's dozens of players who fit that category.
If you look at a player and you're expecting them to play 200 games at your club (like, say Bailey Smith), or maybe a bit older: only 100 games but as a perennial AA candidate, well I'd say the evidence shows it's a good bet that's a better yield than what teams on average get with a top three pick.
But then you have to factor in which teams generally hold the top three pick, how a team like Geelong can possibly get that top three pick to trade for Smith and that the system is geared towards players getting to where they want to go and that's where the compromise starts to come in and you either accept a more middling first round pick, or a couple of extra picks as a package.
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Totally agree with this also, but even then there was angst among crows fans for giving up such a high pick. It was a no brainer trade and one that sets your club up for the next 10 years. The obsession people have on this forum with high draft picks vs known quantities is bizarre.
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Shiny new toy syndrome
HeHateMe
Norm Smith Medallist
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For Hawks I think Weddle as well is worth it
Probably only Liam Baker at the moment....herp derp!!
These ones are crazy
HeHateMe
Norm Smith Medallist
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Why's that, I could put forward strong arguments for all 3.
Callaghan - Was taken around pick 3 originally, hasn't quite lived up to that level yet and if he was traded now, you would not be giving up a pick 3 for him
Holmes - Good player whose value was artificially inflated by Danger's comparison of him to Judd. Simply not worth that much
Day - Gun, probably the only one who would get the closest to pick 3. Needs to have an All Australian year to solidify that value
HeHateMe
Norm Smith Medallist
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Very harsh on Callaghan, the 2021 draft had a very good top 5 and Callaghan probably rounds out the 5 but he is performing still at a high level, no one is arguing Wardlaws merits (which we shouldn't), statistical very similar impacts even though Callaghan doesn't get the same amount of Centre Bounce. 2021 draft you have guys like Nacios, JHF, Darcy and Mac Andrew who are all phenomenal, but that's a very strong top 5 stronger than most years.
Holmes is still very underrated, statistical having a better season than guys like Bailey Dale, Houston, Blakey and is only 21 yrs old. Versatile and can play multiple positions, has pace and can break lines. Will likely make the AA squad and is in the mix for a HBF spot.
Obviously I'm biased when it comes to Day but the 2019 draft was amazing, like above regarding 2021s top end it's better than most years and deeper. It raises my eyebrows you have questions Days merits but not guys like Pickett, Young even Anderson who are all very comparable level talents from the same draft. Why have you singled him out. They are all worth it.
We can agree to disagree
There are other players on that original list i did not pick who are still dubious at pick 3. At the end of the day, some players are worth more to some clubs/fans than others
HeHateMe
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That's the thing, not all clubs would pay but they all could fetch it. Some players are worth more to different clubs and different systems.
You have singled out 3 players who are no more or less dubious than plenty on the list, and you claimed it was 'crazy' they were included. Anywho....
Yes because the list includes many bona fide stars, like top 10 caliber players in the AFL, and the 3 that i picked are the furthest from that level at this point
Some recent examples of high currency trades include Rankine, Jackson, Taranto, May.. and none of them went for pick 3
Taranto was pick 2, BnF winner and a more consistent player than Callahan at the time of his trade
By all means, Give up a pick 3 for Holmes... anywho...
You don't need to have a tantrum because i included Day in my list!
- Aug 17, 2006
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You're arguing that a guy who I'd say is Hawthorn's best player, is already a B&F winner and just turned 23 isn't worth a top three pick. Holmes would be my favourite for Geelong's B&F and is still 21. I'd be very surprised if Holmes wasn't in the initial AA squad. If they were somehow live options for this year's draft, there'd be world records broken by teams lodging their picks to take them.
No matter how good their credentials heading into the draft, practically no-one is a sure thing. All other things being equal, history shows if you could use a top three pick to grab 2024 Max Holmes or 2024 Will Day, you should absolutely do it, because it's far better to have a guy in his early 20s who still probably has 200 games ahead of him and is already a star than an 18 year old who 'could be anything'. The simple reason it doesn't tend to work out as neatly as 'star player traded straight up for pick 1/2/3', in my opinion is purely because the player being traded has already nominated their destination and the destination doesn't generally have pick 1/2/3 sitting around to trade, along with other considerations, like 'go-home' factors. So they complete the trade with what they have and make it something that the original club can live with.
It seems as though you're arguing that 'this is generally what a big name yields at the trade table' (which isn't incorrect of course), whereas others (like me) are arguing that if you disregard all the barriers around player movement, if for whatever reason this player were available to be selected in the AFL draft, what selection would they command? And, to me, history suggests that probably two out of the top three won't end up being as good as Holmes or Day, so why wouldn't you take them instead, 10 years of a proven commodity ahead of 13 years of 'could be anything'? It's a no-brainer, for me at least.
List managers simply don't think this way.. AFL clubs tend to prefer to go to the draft, especially with a top 10 selection. It's viewed as the future for them.
Why would they trade the chance at drafting the next superstar for someone like a Holmes who was originally a pick 20 and has probably performed above that pick, but not certainly into the top 5 level of that draft... It just makes no sense
Based on the last 10 top 3 picks:
- 2023: Nick Watson (Western Jets)
- 2022: Harry Sheezel (Sandringham Dragons)
- 2021: Finn Callaghan (Oakleigh Chargers)
- 2020: Will Phillips (Oakleigh Chargers)
- 2019: Luke Jackson (East Fremantle)
- 2018: Izak Rankine (West Adelaide)
- 2017: Paddy Dow (Bendigo Pioneers)
- 2016: Hugh McCluggage (North Ballarat Rebels)
- 2015: Callum Mills (North Shore)
- 2014: Angus Brayshaw (Sandringham Dragons)
Based on that, you have almost a 70% chance of drafting someone better than Holmes/Callghan with your pick 3
- Aug 17, 2006
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If you're taking Angus Brayshaw's completed career over 10-12 more years of Max Holmes, I'm not sure what to tell you.
That's all you took from it? Yawn
- Aug 17, 2006
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We'll see how many of that list make the AA squad. How many will win (or did win) their club's B&F at age 22 (in a side that could finish top 2)? Holmes looks likely to. And he would have been a walk-up in the 2022 premiership team, were it not for an injury in the PF.
Why have you included Watson, who wasn't the third pick last year? You're locking in that Watson is better than Holmes? He's not even averaging a goal per game. What makes McCluggage better than Holmes right now? Holmes is four years younger by the way. What makes Rankine better? Or Jackson? Or Mills, who's been a shadow of himself since returning this year?
Never mind that you've zeroed on pick #3 for some reason and not the top three picks. How does it look with the bigger sample size? Or going back further (like 2009-19), to include players who've completed the bulk of their careers, which gives some more meaningful evidence of what you get from a top three pick than a kid like Watson?
This really isn't a jerk off thread about Max Holmes ffs. Stop getting upset that i picked X player from your club.
If i don't rate Holmes as much as you then just get over it.
And Mills is an AA, Rising Star winner, BnF and captain of his club
Well if i don't think he's worth pick 3, he's certainly not worth pick 1 or 2 champ....
And Watson was a mistake i accidentally looked at the wrong row, 3rd pick last year was Jed Walter. Who i would 100% take over Holmes.
So make that an 80% better chance
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No worries, big rig. You made it about Holmes in post #42.
I also made it about Callaghan and Day, why didn't you get your knickers in a knot over them?
- Aug 17, 2006
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Refer to post #41.
