Analysis How tall is too tall? Charting our pathway to September.

[swoop42]

() No. of structural talls
*Wildcard tall.

Round 1 vs Geelong +22: Cameron, Cox, Howe, McStay, Mihocek, Moore, Murphy (7) + *McInnes 38% TOG
Round 2 vs Port Adelaide +71: Cameron, Cox, Frampton, McStay, Mihocek, Moore, Murphy (7) + *McInnes 19% TOG
Round 3 vs Richmond +14: Cameron, Frampton, Johnson, McStay, Mihocek, Moore, Murphy (7)
Round 4 vs Brisbane -33: Frampton, Johnson, McStay, Mihocek, Moore, Murphy (6) + *McInnes 42% TOG
Round 5 vs St Kilda +6: Frampton, Johnson, McStay, Mihocek, Moore, Murphy (6) + *Wilson 48% TOG
Round 6 vs Essendon +13: Frampton, Johnson, Kreuger, Mihocek, Moore, Ruscoe (6) + *Kelly 34% TOG
Round 7 vs Adelaide +1: Frampton, Johnson, Kreuger, Mihocek, Moore, Murphy (6) + *Kelly 52% TOG
Round 8 vs Sydney +29: Cox, Frampton, Johnson, Mihocek, Moore, Murphy (6)
Round 9 vs GWS +65: Cox, Johnson, Mihocek, Moore, Murphy (5) + *McInnes 24% TOG
Round 10 vs Carlton +28: Cameron, Cox, Johnson, Mihocek, Moore, Murphy (6)
Round 11 vs North Melbourne +35: Cameron, Cox, Johnson, Mihocek, Moore, Murphy (6)
Round 12 vs West Coast +63: Cameron, Cox, Frampton, Johnson, Mihocek, Moore, Murphy (7)
Round 13 vs Melbourne -4: Cameron, Cox, Frampton, Johnson, Mihocek, Moore, Murphy (7) + *McInnes 78% TOG
Round 15 vs Adelaide +2: Cameron, Cox, Howe, Johnson, Mihocek, Moore, Murphy (7)
Round 16 vs Gold Coast +78: Cameron, Cox, Frampton, Howe, Mihocek, Moore, Murphy (7)
Round 17 vs Western Bulldogs +12: Cameron, Cox, Frampton, Howe, Johnson, Moore, Murphy (7)
Round 18 vs Fremantle +46: Cox, Frampton, Howe, Johnson, McStay, Moore, Murphy (7)
Round 19 vs Port Adelaide +2: Cameron, Cox, Howe, McStay, Mihocek, Moore, Murphy (7)
Round 20 vs Carlton -17: Cameron, Cox, Howe, McStay, Mihocek, Moore, Murphy (7)

With so much debate about how our side will structure up heading towards finals I thought I'd look back on our season to date and see if we can find an answer.

Injuries aside the first thing that stands out is that our 22 is almost certain to contain 7 talls I'd class as structural.

At this stage Cameron, Cox, Moore, Murphy, Howe and Mihocek would appear locks given all have featured immediately in the side when deemed fit and available.

I still believe McStay will also be considered a lock by McRae despite returning via the VFL unlike Howe, Cameron and Cox.

For those still dreaming of a three pronged tall forward line featuring Johnson, or Frampton as defensive insurance then the first 2 rounds of the season where a tall in McInnes was the substitute provides hope one of them could yet fit within the team of 23. With a full complement of talls available however I remain to be convinced either Frampton or Johnson will fit within the 22 if we continue with the Cameron/Cox combination.

P.S- Given we play Port in 2 weeks and a lot of people consider that our most complete performance of the season to date, it's interesting to note that Frampton played in that game with Howe out injured. While I'm not suggesting Frampton should replace Howe in the side I do wonder if we can afford to not have him in the team also with Dixon 200cm 110kg, Marshall 198cm 94kg and Finlayson 197cm 93kg (didn't play last time) to contend with. Dixon in particular is the type of beast we drafted him for.

 

[KillerMagpies]

To win the Flag, we need a tall key defender to go with the big units.
We lost the 2018 Flag when Darling clicked with Kennedy.
Cameron knocked us off in 2019.
We had Bruz running around with Buddy in the 2022 Prelim. We lost that.
….Geez I wish that we had that frugal Prestigiacomo back!

We need a big man. Frampton plays (if it wasn’t him, it would’ve been Charlie Dean).
Put Frampton at full back. Let him settle and regain his rhythm before finals.

 

[Black_White]

I’m 195cms.
Not tall at all I reckon.

 

[Scritchyscroony]

There should be a second "o" in the "to" in the thread title. Standards must be maintained.

My guess:
Its seems fairly obvious what the coaching staff have in mind for our ideal structure. The same as we had at the start of the year.
We will bring McStay back in for Johnson. Hopefully asap so he and the team have time to find some synchronicity.

We have to stick to the Cox/Cameron combination. Cox is going at a goal a game and I can see him making a few significant cameos down forward come finals. Mihocek, McStay and cameos from Cox will probably be our tall forward structure.

Seems obvious we don't rate Frampton ahead of either Howe or Murphy.

My preference for a sub will always be a midfielder type with pace and run rather than a tall. Markov or WHE would be perfect.

So we bring in Mcstay and Mihocek and out go Frampton and Johnson.

 

[Anzacday]

There should be a second "o" in the "to" in the thread title. Standards must be maintained.

FTFY

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

It’s been the ongoing debate all year. Clearly seven is the max and we have nine genuine candidates.

Nine into seven just doesn’t go.

For mine:
Moore Murphy Mihocek and one of Cameron or cox is a lock.
Howe will be a lock but I’ll put it out there that he’s a weak link in defence. One on one he’s our poorest defender. Possibly Frampton takes that spot. Depending upon matchups.
The Cameron cox debate is another ongoing story. If we drop one, is that another opportunity for frampton to get a reprieve?
Mcstay is another who will be considered a lock. Again, is he a second ruck option? Will he actually get back or will he end up being a hard luck story?
Johnson is a real risk of missing out but nobody has as much X factor as him.

I’d take a stab that Johnson and frampton are the two unlucky players to miss out….. but having said that I’m not convinced that’s the right path to take. I’d be looking hard a5 Cameron/cox and mcstay ( and to a lesser extent Howe) an$ asking if tough decisions need to be made.

 

[manicpie]

As far as I'm concerned, we should go with McStay, AJ and BM up forward and the defence has to have Frampton, how that all fits is anyone's guess but the main challengers have some big units up forward

 

[sr36]

As far as I'm concerned, we should go with McStay, AJ and BM up forward and the defence has to have Frampton, how that all fits is anyone's guess but the main challengers have some big units up forward

I don't think Frampton will make the team.

Moore, Howe and Murphy in defence.
Cameron to ruck
Checkers up forward.

Two of Cox, Johnson and McStay for forward and relief ruck.

 

[Fat Jesus]

As far as I'm concerned, we should go with McStay, AJ and BM up forward and the defence has to have Frampton, how that all fits is anyone's guess but the main challengers have some big units up forward

As you said earlier mate. "It's not like we are land of the giants"

All these guys fit in perfectly.

People saying McStay and AJ cannot play together are lost.
AJ is no Giant.

 

[windchimes]

As you said earlier mate. "It's not like we are land of the giants"

All these guys fit in perfectly.

People saying McStay and AJ cannot play together are lost.
AJ is no Giant.

I think they can play together, but to play all of them and 2 rucks, which I think this year is unlikely, AJ would have to do quite a bit more than his usual mark and goal.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

As you said earlier mate. "It's not like we are land of the giants"

All these guys fit in perfectly.

People saying McStay and AJ cannot play together are lost.
AJ is no Giant.

It’s true.

Mcstay and AJ can only play together if we omit Cameron or cox, and mcstay is our second ruck.

 

[Piewithsauce13]

To win the Flag, we need a tall key defender to go with the big units.
We lost the 2018 Flag when Darling clicked with Kennedy.
Cameron knocked us off in 2019.
We had Bruz running around with Buddy in the 2022 Prelim. We lost that.
….Geez I wish that we had that frugal Prestigiacomo back!

We need a big man. Frampton plays (if it wasn’t him, it would’ve been Charlie Dean).
Put Frampton at full back. Let him settle and regain his rhythm before finals.

Agree! would also allow Moore to be so much more damaging than he already is!

 

[Black_White]

Nine into seven just doesn’t go.

You’ll never be a tax accountant.

 

[KillerMagpies]

Agree! would also allow Moore to be so much more damaging than he already is!

It’s as clear as day.

 

[Bianconeri]

2 key defenders one third tall, two rucks and two key forwards is the structure we should go with.

 

[KillerMagpies]

B Murphy FRAMPTON Maynard
HB Markov MOORE Quaynor
C J.Daicos DeGoey Sidebottom
HF McCreery MCSTAY Hill
F Elliot MIHOCEK COX
Foll CAMERON Mitchell N Daicos
Int Pendlebury Lipinski Crisp Noble
Em Adams

All your big boys are in capitals.

 

[SwanBet]

I feel like the finals structure based on selection this year will be the below:

B: D.Moore, J.Howe, N.Murphy
F: B.Mihochek, D.McStay, M.Cox
R: D.Cameron

None of these players have been omitted at any point this season. They have only missed through injury.

I largely agree with sentiment around Frampton as a key back, it concerns me in finals against big forwards, however I think it's clear they want to go with the Moore/Howe/Murphy combination. Forward of the ball, I think the club wanted Kreuger in that Cox position, however it has just materialised this season due to injuries. Johnson is still a chance to take that 3rd tall position, however it would require Cox to continue his poor form.

 

[Johno9911]

I personally am in the "Frampton at FB" camp - he's shown good signs back there and I thought until we had the injury crisis to our big men, he was forming a good partnership with Moore and Murphy (who I don't really count as a true tall). Billy holding down a big man i50 allows Darcy to do his thing and also simplifies Murphy's role and allowing him to set up behind the ball in the most dangerous space (watching games live it's amazing to see how much work Murphy does off the ball to get into the required space).

It does mean a very hard call is made on Howe - but he's a senior player and a great club man so would understand, and the ever improving Markov (though I think his run and dash would be a great weapon coming off the bench as a sub late in a big final). We know both these guys will give everything they've got if called upon, and with injuries inevitable you could foresee a situation where either of them ends up in the side.

In terms of the other end of the ground - this is a much more peculiar situation. I think Mcstay, Mihocek and AJ (similar to boat to Murphy) is our most dangerous and "lively" combination, but I'm not sure all 3 can fit in the side with both Cox and Cameron - while the flipside is, having both Cox and DC14 is important for us in the ruck division (usually in one them getting a "second class" ruck when the number 1 has a rest) and do we lose that advantage by taking one out and playing McStay as a second ruck? With all available this week I think we should try the following structure to see how the backline works, and how the forward/ruck chemistry goes (BOLD being the true talls, and italics being the third types).

Quaynor, Frampton, Murphy
Maynard, Moore, Crisp

Cameron, Mitchell, N Daicos
J Daicos, De Goey, Sidebottom

Elliott, McStay, Hill
McCreery, Mihocek, Johnson

Noble, Pendlebury, Cox, Lipinski/Adams
Sub: Howe/Markov

 

[swoop42]

Round 18 vs Fremantle: Cox, Frampton, Howe, Johnson, McStay, Moore, Murphy (7)


Fingers crossed Mihocek and Cameron are right to return next week (alongside no fresh injuries) and we get the best insight for the year on how the coaches view the pecking order of our tall options.

 

[swoop42]

In my equivalent thread over at Nick's a poster has stated that Murphy has only won 9 of 37 one on one contests inside our defensive 50 so far this year.

If accurate I must admit I found this statistic surprising as to my eyes he's been pretty solid defensively since establishing himself in the 22 albeit concerns about his size and ability to contain the biggest forwards come September remain.

So, are we overrating Murphy in the face of team success or is the methodology used to compile this stat possibly flawed?

Another point of possible concern I don't think gets raised enough is that Frampton will have spent more time playing as a ruck/forward this year than the defensive position he was intended for.

While he's proved valuable in being able to fill numerous roles I'm not convinced we're any the wiser to his actual quality as a key defender given the lack of exposure in that position week on week.

Murphy in the 22 and Frampton as the 23rd man ahead of a small still remains a viable option for me against certain opponents.

 

[swoop42]

McStay returning to play alongside Mihocek in coming weeks might be the key to us being more open to using Frampton as the 2nd ruck option. The benefit of this would be the ability for McStay to take on ruck minutes should a defensive crisis require Frampton.

I like this flexibility.

While Frampton appears limited to being a simple straight line forward without the finesse to work the angles or back towards goal with Cameron having only kicked the 1 goal for the season and Cox yet to kick more than 2 in any one game he doesn't need to do much to break even with them.

Cox has actually only had the 4 disposals in each of his past two games so needs to lift with a selection squeeze about to start.

 

[Albert Parker]

I think re Murphy and 9 of 37 that he has been undersized, but often sacrificed by being given the most challenging role of being the primary negating defender.
Eg. clearly Murphy was undersized against Larkey, but they persisted with him because they otherwise had North covered and could afford to let Moore try and intercept.
While Frampton is a bit slower to move the ball on with his decision making, he is clearly taller and stronger and able to play that defensive back.
On balance, I'd prefer Frampton to either Howe or Murphy, and replacing Howe with Frampton would clearly allow Moore to intercept and still have Murphy have first crack at the second tall forward.
Agree with the sentiment that against Port, Frampton in particular is a better choice with Dixon and the more mobile Finlayson and Marshall.

 

[swoop42]

Cameron, Cox, Mihocek, McStay, Johnson, Moore, Murphy, Howe (8)

We haven't gone that tall all season when it comes to our 22 so are we going to start now?

If you made Johnson the sub then I guess you could argue it's a similar setup to rounds 1 and 2 with (7) + *McInnes as the 23rd man however both Markov and Lipinski weren't in the 22 at that stage and Hoskin-Elliott is the only confirmed out from those games.

 

[Fat Jesus]

Cameron, Cox, Mihocek, McStay, Johnson, Moore, Murphy, Howe (8)

We haven't gone that tall all season when it comes to our 22 so are we going to start now?

If you made Johnson the sub then I guess you could argue it's a similar setup to rounds 1 and 2 with (7) + *McInnes as the 23rd man however both Markov and Lipinski weren't in the 22 at that stage and Hoskin-Elliott is the only confirmed out from those games.

In that group brother, only Moore, Cox and Cameron are tall.

 

[swoop42]

In that group brother, only Moore, Cox and Cameron are tall.

They can all fill structural roles in our side whether it be as a marking target in Johnson or Howe having to defend taller opponents.

McStay, Mihocek and Murphy all fill key position roles in our side even if some people consider them undersized.