In every season there is at least one coach under serious pressure, likely heading out the door. There is always at least one sacking.
So then the mind turns to the replacement. There has been a lot of talk about who a club should look for when appointing the man who it hopes will be its next premiership coach. Go for a proven premiership coach if he's available? Go for a younger one with fresh ideas? What does the history of the modern era say?
Look at the last ten different AFL premiership coaches:
Craig McRae - assistant coach during Richmond flags 2017, 19, 20
Chris Scott - assistant coach at Fremantle 2008-10, no flags
Simon Goodwin - assistant coach at Essendon 2010-14, no flags
Damien Hardwick - assistant coach during 2008 Hawthorn flag
Adam Simpson - assistant coach during 2013 Hawthorn flag
Luke Beveridge - assistant coach during 2010 Collingwood flag and Hawthorn flags 2013, 14
Alastair Clarkson - assistant coach during 2004 Port flag
John Longmire - assistant coach during 2005 Sydney flag
Mick Malthouse - existing premiership coach from West Coast flags 1992, 95. Before winning his first flag, was senior coach at Footscray 1984-89, no flags
Mark Thompson - assistant coach during 1999 North flag
8 of the last 10 premiership coaches had been part of a premiership as an assistant or senior coach.
If you want to go back further to the previous 10, it gets a bit trickier due to all the repeat flags:
John Worsfold - assistant at Carlton 2000-01, no flags
Paul Roos - assistant at Sydney 2001, no flags
Mark Williams - assistant at Essendon and Port 1996-2000, no flags
Leigh Matthews - existing premiership coach from Collingwood 1990 flag. Before winning his first flag, was not part of any VFL/AFL flags
Kevin Sheedy - existing premiership coach from Essendon 1984, 85, 93 flags. Before he won his first flag, was assistant during 1980 Richmond flag
Denis Pagan - existing premiership coach from North 1996 flag. Before he won his first flag, was not part of any AFL flags
Malcolm Blight - existing premiership coach from 1997 Adelaide flag. Before he won his first flag, was senior coach for Geelong losing grand finals 1989, 92, 95.
David Parkin - existing premiership coach from 1978 Hawthorn flag
Allen Joyce - existing premiership coach from 1988 Hawthorn flag. Before winning his first flag, was not part of any VFL/AFL flags
Allan Jeans - existing premiership coach from St Kilda 1966 and Hawthorn 83, 86 flags. Before winning his first flag, was not part of any VFL flags
Depending on which way you look at it, 12 of the last 20 different premiership coaches had been part of a premiership as an assistant or senior coach - excluding those who'd already coached the same club to a flag as senior coach.
Let me know if I've made any factual errors.
By my reading, the most reliable way of getting a coach that takes your club to a premiership is getting an experienced assistant coach - who has been part of a successful club. That last part is critical. He needs to have been part of a successful system.
So then the mind turns to the replacement. There has been a lot of talk about who a club should look for when appointing the man who it hopes will be its next premiership coach. Go for a proven premiership coach if he's available? Go for a younger one with fresh ideas? What does the history of the modern era say?
Look at the last ten different AFL premiership coaches:
Craig McRae - assistant coach during Richmond flags 2017, 19, 20
Chris Scott - assistant coach at Fremantle 2008-10, no flags
Simon Goodwin - assistant coach at Essendon 2010-14, no flags
Damien Hardwick - assistant coach during 2008 Hawthorn flag
Adam Simpson - assistant coach during 2013 Hawthorn flag
Luke Beveridge - assistant coach during 2010 Collingwood flag and Hawthorn flags 2013, 14
Alastair Clarkson - assistant coach during 2004 Port flag
John Longmire - assistant coach during 2005 Sydney flag
Mick Malthouse - existing premiership coach from West Coast flags 1992, 95. Before winning his first flag, was senior coach at Footscray 1984-89, no flags
Mark Thompson - assistant coach during 1999 North flag
8 of the last 10 premiership coaches had been part of a premiership as an assistant or senior coach.
If you want to go back further to the previous 10, it gets a bit trickier due to all the repeat flags:
John Worsfold - assistant at Carlton 2000-01, no flags
Paul Roos - assistant at Sydney 2001, no flags
Mark Williams - assistant at Essendon and Port 1996-2000, no flags
Leigh Matthews - existing premiership coach from Collingwood 1990 flag. Before winning his first flag, was not part of any VFL/AFL flags
Kevin Sheedy - existing premiership coach from Essendon 1984, 85, 93 flags. Before he won his first flag, was assistant during 1980 Richmond flag
Denis Pagan - existing premiership coach from North 1996 flag. Before he won his first flag, was not part of any AFL flags
Malcolm Blight - existing premiership coach from 1997 Adelaide flag. Before he won his first flag, was senior coach for Geelong losing grand finals 1989, 92, 95.
David Parkin - existing premiership coach from 1978 Hawthorn flag
Allen Joyce - existing premiership coach from 1988 Hawthorn flag. Before winning his first flag, was not part of any VFL/AFL flags
Allan Jeans - existing premiership coach from St Kilda 1966 and Hawthorn 83, 86 flags. Before winning his first flag, was not part of any VFL flags
Depending on which way you look at it, 12 of the last 20 different premiership coaches had been part of a premiership as an assistant or senior coach - excluding those who'd already coached the same club to a flag as senior coach.
Let me know if I've made any factual errors.
By my reading, the most reliable way of getting a coach that takes your club to a premiership is getting an experienced assistant coach - who has been part of a successful club. That last part is critical. He needs to have been part of a successful system.
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