I can imagine massive gaming of that system so you end up with 1 point more than a rival to get pick 1.
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IIs that a bad thing?I can imagine massive gaming of that system so you end up with 1 point more than a rival to get pick 1.
Which is why if a club needs to pay for a NGA with a first round pick and Compo is taken from the gaining club picks don't get pushed out at all.Been thinking about this. It is very unfair on clubs who have zero involvement in any NGA, FS or compo picks in a draft. They just sit there watching all these other clubs improve their lists, get compo etc whilst their draft picks get pushed out further and further. So the equalisation policy with the draft order helping lower finishing clubs gets diluted. Very unfair on clubs who do not regularly benefit from FS, NGA and compo picks.
At the very least the points they 'lose' should be given to them to use on future bids maybe. If a 1st slides from 6 to 11 the the points difference is 'credited' to be used on future bids.
IIs that a bad thing?
You still have to trade out to get points in. And all clubs would be able to do it.
What scenarios would be bad?
18th position - 4647 points
17th position - 4088 points
16th position - 3740 points
15th position - 3478 points
14th position - 3263 points
13th position - 3077 points
12th position - 2913 points
11th position - 2765 points
10th position - 2631 points
9th position - 2504 points
8th position - 2388 points
7th position - 2279 points
6th position - 2174 points
5th position - 2077 points
4th position - 1983 points
3rd position - 1894 points
2nd position - 1809 points
1st position - 1726 points
For trading it would be really really simple as clubs trade points and as a result every player is given a much fairer value since for instance if Fremantle wanted to, they would be able to get the Hogan deal done immediately, and they would not be reliant on waiting for picks they may receive from Brisbane. No, they could simply give 2500 points for instance to Melbourne in exchange for Hogan.
Then it comes to the draft, and I am sure some of you are wondering how that would work but for the draft the AFL sets up a blind auction. For those who don't know a blind auction is
In this type of auction, all bidders simultaneously submit sealed bids, so that no bidder knows the bid of any other participant. The highest bidder pays the price they submitted.
So the AFL sets up a day a few weeks before the draft, where all clubs are each in front of a laptop or something like that, and then the AFL calls for bids on pick 1. If a team wants to, they can blow all their points in an attempt to get pick 1, but if they do so it means having super super crappy picks afterwards.
So lets say for instance the bidding on pick 1 goes
Gold Coast - 6800
Carlton - 6500
Western Bulldogs - 6451
Gold Coast would win the bid, and pick 1 would be awarded to Gold Coast.
Gold Coast may have just blown all their points in an attempt to secure pick 1, but they got it, but it does mean their next draft pick will be super super crappy, something at least pick 74.
We could get down to pick 9 here, and Richmond decide that this is their time to strike, them spending half their points on pick 9, and then the other half to secure pick 10, but they have no points after that
Geelong may decide they want to go after pick 12, and when they secure it they have plenty of points left over, allowing them to pick up plenty of cheap picks in the 30's.
This goes all the way to pick 73, which is the last pick that has any points value. The teams with the more points obviously have massive advantages going into the draft auction, but even so, they still have to be strategic with how they use their points as they don't want to blow all their points on a single pick, and they also don't know what the other teams are doing either. It would be possible for a team to pay more for a later pick than an earlier one if they are very unlucky.
I know I came up with it, so I am more than a little biased but I love this idea as I think it would open up trading massively and it would also create a huge element of strategy in trading and drafting as well, allowing teams like Port Adelaide and Adelaide (this year) to target picks in an attempt to get the South Australians to their club, or allowing many other strategies for clubs based on where they think their ideal player is going to go in the draft.
If you look at the majority of picks trades, the team upgrading pay 30-50% more in points.Is there any evidence for this? Eg you could look at the average number of games played by draft pick.
If true, having a draft auction such as the one proposed would help to alleviate this.
Which is why if a club needs to pay for a NGA with a first round pick and Compo is taken from the gaining club picks don't get pushed out at all.
I ask the question why is this an issue now? For 20 years SA and WA clubs have had to deal with Vic clubs getting repeated father/son picks.
Now that everyone has access to NGA's and father/son picks you want to change the rules again so Melbourne clubs are advantaged by pilfering lower clubs for Free Agency players without them getting compensation.
Top eight teams would have to trade out serious talent to displace the bottom clubs. And even if that scenario did happen, I think it could still give the bottom-placed multiple good quality picks.How about - The team that finished bottom, with very little trade capital to up its points tally ... End up with a worse draft hand than a number of top 8 clubs.
So clubs sit and wait until a minute before cut-off to not show their hand on how many points they will have. So whoever is the last to lodge a trade has a massive advantage because they know how many points they need to get the pick they want. Everyone will hold out to the last moment it would end up a farce.IIs that a bad thing?
You still have to trade out to get points in. And all clubs would be able to do it.
What scenarios would be bad?
We are talking the AFL here. They do have some very smart people...they also had AFLX.Don't leave me out, I had a similar idea a few years ago too
AFL trading and drafting should become completely points based?
I know I created a thread similar to this a few days ago but based on some of the responses I got I have changed the idea so instead of teams being allocated picks based on where they finished that year they are instead allocated points. (PS I am using the AFL points system as a guide here...www.bigfooty.com
I think it is safe to say though we are getting a theme with these ideas, and properly worked out by people smarter than us it could turn into a very good system, a very fair system.
The points system as it stands is an abomination which attempts to place a real world value on a number of artificial constructs. It is largely useless for any genuine value assessment of a given draft pick deal.
Each club in it's individual circumstances may have a different view of what a given draft pick is "worth", and what they would be happy to get for it if traded. If point allocations were substituted for draft order, you get to trade period and nobody has the faintest clue what a given number of points is actually worth in the draft.
The value of the points does not become evident until the bidding behaviour of clubs in the first and second rounds (at least) is demonstrated. How many clubs go in hard at the top 10? How many points are you going to have to save for your later picks?
I would assess it as inevitable that a points system as proposed would all but guarantee that the already strong clubs get stronger. They will trade their fringe players or duplicate types out for points, and spend it all lavishly on early picks. Who cares if the two or three extra players you need to fill your bottom three list spots come from the Siberia end of the draft? That is a luxury weaker sides don't have.
As the system stands, the low finishing team has the ability to say NO. I will not trade you my top 5 pick, I am investing in quality youth. Or they can decide they are better served to take two later first rounders in exchange.
In a points system the bottom finishing side has no guarantee that their hatful of extra points will even get them a player in the top 10.
The AFL should start using points as the sole currency for trades, draft picks, free agency compensation, academy/father-son discounts and penalties. Clubs should be allocated draft points instead of draft picks, and should be able to use these points to trade for players and bid for picks in an auction-style draft.
The points system was created in 2015 - a points value was assigned to each draft pick (3000 points for pick 1, 2517 points for pick 2, down to 9 points for pick 73) - to ensure a consistent discount was applied for father-son and academy players. Extending this to cover other aspects of trade and drafting is the logical next step.
I’ve outlined what I think are the key issues with the current trading/draft system and have provided details on my proposal below. While the proposed system looks somewhat complex, this is because the current system is complex, and I have tried to maintain elements such as free agency compensation and discounts for academy/father-son picks. On the whole it is a far more transparent system and would help to resolve a number of existing issues.
Issues with the current system
Issue 1. Trading a player usually involves a complex exchange in order to reach a ‘fair’ value, eg swapping of picks, multiple clubs involved.
Issue 2. Trading future picks can be a lottery, eg next year’s first round pick could easily be pick 1 (3000 points) or pick 9 (1469 points).
Issue 3. Recruiters actively try to manipulate the draft order to minimise the cost of academy/father-son players.
Issue 4. Free-agency compensation, academy and father-son picks penalise clubs with draft picks immediately after, eg pick 10 could easily be pushed back to pick 14.
Issue 5. A small difference in a free agent’s contract can determine a big difference in the level of compensation, eg it could be pick 2 or pick 19.
Issue 6. The reverse-order-of-finish draft provides a very significant leg-up to the very bottom sides, but less so to the middle of the bottom ten, eg the points difference in draft picks between 13th and 18th is greater than the difference between 1st and 13th. This is exacerbated when FA compensation/academy/father-son picks are accounted for.
How the proposal would work
1. At the end of the season, the free agency period would begin. The formula for free-agency compensation would be adjusted so that teams are compensated with points rather than picks.
2. At the conclusion of the free agency period, each club would be allocated points based on their ladder position, with lower-placed sides given more points (in addition to any free agency compensation). The difference in points allocated between each ladder position would be fixed, eg 18th receives 160 points more than 17th, 2nd receives 160 points more than 1st. A small pool of points (eg 1000-2000) would be initially set aside for discounts for academy/father-son picks (the amount set aside would depend on the estimated value of likely academy/father-son prospects). The total points allocated (including the pool set aside) would equal the total value of draft picks (49,436).
3. The trade period would then begin, during which players can be traded for points. This would help to facilitate trades with a ‘fair’ value without the need for complex arrangements. A club could build their allocation of points by placing a player ‘on the market’ and trading to the highest bidder.
4. A club looking to hit the draft hard this season could choose to trade some of their future points with another club’s points this season - eg 1200 future points for 1000 current points.
5. At the national draft, the first pick is allocated to the club with the highest points balance (after taking trades/FA compensation into account), and 3000 points are deducted from that club’s balance (3000 points is the estimated value of pick one). The club can then choose to use the pick to select a player, or they can sell the pick to the highest bidder (eg another club may offer 3500 points). Once a player is selected, pick two is then allocated to the club with the highest points balance for 2517 points, and they can either use or sell the pick. The same process continues for each subsequent pick. In this way, the draft operates more like an auction. Teams would also be able to continue to trade future points during the draft.
6. If a club bids on an academy/father-son selection and this is matched by the destination club, the player is taken with the same pick and the destination club must pay 75% (academy) or 85% (father-son) of the points back to the club that bid for the player. The remaining 15% or 25% of points is compensated to the bidding club using the pool of points set aside for this purpose.
7. During the draft, if the balance of the pool of points set aside for academy/father-son players is higher than necessary, the AFL can begin to distribute these points to all 18 clubs equally (all points must be used in the draft).
8. Pick 74 onwards (which are worth zero points) are allocated to clubs in reverse-order-of-finish.
I’m sure some clubs would try that, I’m sure some clubs would realise that a mad scramble would probably end up with some terrible decisions.So clubs sit and wait until a minute before cut-off to not show their hand on how many points they will have. So whoever is the last to lodge a trade has a massive advantage because they know how many points they need to get the pick they want. Everyone will hold out to the last moment it would end up a farce.
I’m sure some clubs would try that, I’m sure some clubs would realise that a mad scramble would probably end up with some terrible decisions.
Perhaps it’s like a game of poker? The points are not revealed until everyone shows their hand at the end.
I get your concerns there but I think in this instance it can be solved by having 18th getting sufficiently more points than 1st, so much so that 1st would need to trade away a lot of fringe players or one or two very good players to get to the same points total as 18th.
Because the current system makes trading ridiculously more difficult than it needs to be. You just don’t know any different and are used to it.How about we just give 18th pick 1 and let them use it as they see fit?
That's all a different issue.NGAs are a joke, FA compensation is a bad joke. Get rid of all the extra picks, including father son.
I would liken this conversation to the rolling Rules of the Game debacle. Until you strip off all the crapola that's been glued on over time, you don't know if the system actually works decently or not.
But as we have seen with the rules of the game debacle, shoving extra layers of complication is rarely constructive.
Because the current system makes trading ridiculously more difficult than it needs to be. You just don’t know any different and are used to it.
With the proposed system, come draft night no team is obligated to trade their picks. The team with the currently available pick is in full control, they can trade if they want to or they can just select a player as usual.
That's all a different issue.
The AFL should start using points as the sole currency for trades, draft picks, free agency compensation, academy/father-son discounts and penalties. Clubs should be allocated draft points instead of draft picks, and should be able to use these points to trade for players and bid for picks in an auction-style draft.
The points system was created in 2015 - a points value was assigned to each draft pick (3000 points for pick 1, 2517 points for pick 2, down to 9 points for pick 73) - to ensure a consistent discount was applied for father-son and academy players. Extending this to cover other aspects of trade and drafting is the logical next step.
I’ve outlined what I think are the key issues with the current trading/draft system and have provided details on my proposal below. While the proposed system looks somewhat complex, this is because the current system is complex, and I have tried to maintain elements such as free agency compensation and discounts for academy/father-son picks. On the whole it is a far more transparent system and would help to resolve a number of existing issues.
Issues with the current system
Issue 1. Trading a player usually involves a complex exchange in order to reach a ‘fair’ value, eg swapping of picks, multiple clubs involved.
Issue 2. Trading future picks can be a lottery, eg next year’s first round pick could easily be pick 1 (3000 points) or pick 9 (1469 points).
Issue 3. Recruiters actively try to manipulate the draft order to minimise the cost of academy/father-son players.
Issue 4. Free-agency compensation, academy and father-son picks penalise clubs with draft picks immediately after, eg pick 10 could easily be pushed back to pick 14.
Issue 5. A small difference in a free agent’s contract can determine a big difference in the level of compensation, eg it could be pick 2 or pick 19.
Issue 6. The reverse-order-of-finish draft provides a very significant leg-up to the very bottom sides, but less so to the middle of the bottom ten, eg the points difference in draft picks between 13th and 18th is greater than the difference between 1st and 13th. This is exacerbated when FA compensation/academy/father-son picks are accounted for.
Because the current system makes trading ridiculously more difficult than it needs to be. You just don’t know any different and are used to it.
The amount of points deficit teams are willing to go in to when moving up in the draft tells me teams don't really value it. Or at least clubs don't think you can add multiple picks together to create the value of a top pick which seems to be the biggest weakness. Some of that is clubs being silly and overrating their drafting ability rather than trusting the maths, but it happens too often to be just dumb clubs I think.Is there any evidence for this? Eg you could look at the average number of games played by draft pick.
If true, having a draft auction such as the one proposed would help to alleviate this.
Yeah a poor choice of words, soz, didn't mean it to come across that way. "We don't know any different"Do me a favour and don't speak down to me for failing to agree with your pet idea.
Ideas are like bums. Everybody has one.
Teams have live trading now on draft night.But a team won't have full control over its currently available pick. A team finishing on the bottom could lose its number 1 pick not because it has chosen to trade it but because some other club has accumulated more points by trading out players.