Hurley Wisbey Profile - Enjoy

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Dave The Man

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Collingwood Magpies - Alan Didak 2009 Player Sponsor
Sep 17, 2006
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Michael Hurley (Northern Knights)

193/92 mid-age right foot (dual-sided) KPP.

*STYLE LIKE: Leppitsch?

*MY RANKING (not meant to reflect appropriate draft pick to use): 9

*PROBABILITY OF AFL CAREER: Definite. Ready year 1.

- Within an AFL team list, could prove capable of SUSTAINING a ranking of 3-5.

*HURT FACTORS (Offensive/Defensive/Negative): MH / MH / LM

*TRADEMARK:

- Thumping kick off 1 step
- Stream past an opponent in a balanced running style then a balanced thumping kick on the run under no pressure, with a decent chance of hitting a target but also a chance to miss (and perhaps be a turnover).

*MAIN SELLING POINTS:

- Kicking depth and hurt factor
- Strength / balance
- Poise
- Competitiveness

*MAIN QUERY:

- Pace.

*SUMMARY ASSESSMENT, RECOMMENDATION:

- Strong, slowish, competitive, balanced, smooth-moving KPP. Very high hurt factor from his good kicks.

- I was a huge rap for him last year and would have loved him to have been eligible for the '07 draft but he didn't kick on this year quite the way I had expected. My impression on various occasions in '08 was of a kid who had become cocksure at U18 level and thought he could toy with opponents and not need to pay them the respect he would have in '07. His accountability was good in the '08 Champs but too often not good enough at TAC level. (e.g. Nathan O'Keefe kicked 3-4 goals on him in the first qtr against Eastern Ranges due to Hurley not paying him enough respect). He also played millionairish on many occasions in '08 in terms of ambitiously (foolishly?) taking on opponents in situations where he would have been more judicious (intelligent) in previous years. His kicking also got lazy this year - too many casual kicks (especially off one step) and too many long bombs as if just for the sake of it. His judgement and on-field focus seemed to drop a bit this year IMHO.

Is he an early developer and the pack is catching up? Yes to the former, no to the latter. Michael just slipped himself back to the pack at times this year. If you had never seen him play prior to '08, you would come away from his games thinking he is a solid prospect. If you watched fairly closely in '08, you would come away from his games thinking he is a solid prospect whose kicking doesn't hit a target as often as he looks capable of. In '06 and '07, an observer would have come away from his games thinking he is an outstanding prospect who hits up a target fairly frequently and often with high hurt factor.

In short, my strong impression this year is that Hurley has been ready for and needing the challenges of AFL centre stage.

I have always valued the run he gives streaming out of defence and I'm confident he will not be as injudicious (blindly arrogant?) at AFL level as he sometimes was in '08. Similarly, I'm confident he will revert to showing all opponents close respect and also be more focussed on making a higher percentage of his kicks count.

Would I draft him? Absolutely. If you want a key defender, he is clearly the standout and would be in all recent drafts. He won't come cheap but how often does a virtually "rock solid" investment come cheap? Let alone one who is virtually plug 'n play.

As for pace issues, yes, he lacks some pace (at least over a short course). However, many good players who lack a bit of pace are clever enough to generally not be exposed. Quality players often have that extra anticipation that can be worth a metre and they also know how to cut the angles. So it is with Michael. I've seen him play on various lead-up players who are quite quick yet he regularly manages to glove spoil them at the end of their lead. (If you are mentally very competitive, you push yourself that bit harder). Conversely, I've seen various quick defenders left in the wake of a leading forward who isn't noted for speed. Top players have, or find, ways of working around deficiencies they might have. Buckley and Rob Harvey weren't quick but liked to take on opponents and carry the ball yet were rarely caught. Incidentally, I think too much is made of Hurley's lack of pace anyway. Yes, he does poor test times and, yes, his pace isn't flash but, even in it's own right, it's not as poor as people often say. Once he has built up momentum streaming out of defence (which he likes to do), I haven't noticed many times (although it has happened) when he has been run down.

- The bottom line is that IMO he is well worth a top 10 pick, even around mid top 10 (which is about where I expect him to go). I see him as not only best key defender available but also minimal risk of failing to deliver appropriate return on your investment. I can't say that about quite a few of the likely first rounders, even top 10 picks, this year.

You're buying a key defender who had 20d+ in 5 of his 11 TAC games in '08 including 34d (R13 vs Geelong). 20d+ in 4 of his last 6 TAC games in '08. 20d+ in 8 of his 17 TAC games in '07. Even allowing for his being a bit looser this year, how often does a strongly-built KPP (back or forward for that matter) present at draft time with that degree of ball-getting ability? Jack Watts (who I think is an outstanding prospect and who will go top 2 this year and who admittedly is 9 months younger) averaged 19d in his 6 TAC games and 11d in '08 Champs. Hurley averaged 20d and 12d respectively. Last year, when Hurley was a few months younger than Watts is now, Hurley averaged 18d and 13d respectively. And Hurley is a better all-round kick than Watts - hurt factor and even reliability (not that I'm knocking Watts' kicking). I'm not suggesting Hurley deserves to be picked ahead of Watts. I too would take Watts first. I'm just highlighting what you are getting in Hurley that is way above what you would normally get in the best potential key defender in a draft. I rate Rutten and Merrett the best 2 players to be drafted from U18s and become AFL key defenders this millennium and I really fancied both at draft time. However, Hurley is easily the most attractive U18 key defender *prospect* to present at draft time this millennium and we've had to wait 8 years for such a prospect to come along. If a key defender is your prime target, you may have to wait another 8 years for a similarly attractive prospect to come along (even an U18 key forward you reckon will make a great key defender).

At AFL level, he will be a rock in defence. And he is more than handy as a key forward at U18 level and will be capable of the same at AFL level too.

*DISPOSAL:

- Thumping kick, even off just one step - depth, power. Dual-sided.

- His big reputation for kicking is a bit flattering. Two points need to be highlighted:

1. His very good kicks often do have very high hurt factor and a fair few of his kicks are in the very good to excellent category. He can fairly often pinpoint a pass over any distance (even 60m) or do a worm-burner or appropriately weight a pass to the lead.

2. Contrary to popular opinion and regardless of stats, he is NOT an elitely reliable kick per se. No stranger to turnovers, even under no pressure. 8 of his 44 kicks in '08 Champs were clangers. 5 of his 32 kicks in '07 Champs were clangers. Anyone who can get the depth and hurt factor that Hurley does with his good kicks, needs to be cut more slack than a "chip it around" player whose best kicks might still have low hurt factor. Nevertheless, 13 clangers out of 76 kicks (i.e. 1.7 KC/10K) is a high price to pay, albeit worth it on balance. I rate Rutten an elitely reliable kick. I rate Hurley a terrific kick for his depth and the hurt factor of his good kicks but he is not (at least currently) in Rutten's class for reliability. In fairness, Hurley could probably become almost elitely reliable if he didn't go for depth so often.

- Generally reliable shot for goal, regardless of situation.

- Nice, economical kicking style.

- Good by hand - hurt factor, power / depth.

*DECISION-MAKING, SMARTS:

- With 3 exceptions (more so in '08 than earlier years), his decision-making and smarts are generally good. The 3 exceptions are:
1. I'd like to see him kick for depth a bit less often - be a bit less predictable. Sometimes (far from always though) he chooses not to use a short option he sees in space and instead kicks long to a contest or takes a "very low margin for error" long kick hoping to be pinpoint (which a fair few are but quite a few miss too).
2. Conversely, he (very) occasionally kicks shortish to a contest.
3. Trying to do too much. In particular, taking on the man in the mark. In '08 he was over-ambitious on many occasions at U18 level but sometimes got way with it. He won't get away with it at AFL level (and I do anticipate he will choose to be more judicious at AFL level)..

Otherwise though, he often shows good vision and poise, tries to create space when appropriate, has good evasion, often picks the right option, and displays a quick brain.

*HANDS:

- Usually clean, regardless of situation. Good ball control.

*OVERHEAD MARKING:

- Very competitive overhead. Holds his ground well. Attacks his marks (and his spoils) and can mark from all positions including across the face or with the flight.

- Hands are not routinely reliable but are pretty good.

- When playing as a forward, tendency on a lead to misjudge the flight and run under the ball. I suspect part of that is due to his lack of natural pace in that, on a lead, he feels he has to run flat chat to try to stay ahead of his opponent. A naturally quick opponent often doesn't have to push himself as hard to generate the same pace so is more capable of fine-tuning his pace as the ball gets closer.

*ATHLETICISM:

- Does lacks some pace but is a balanced mover on the run.

- Hasn't recorded particularly good beeps but his on-field endurance seems good. e.g. More than happy to test out his opponents by running them up and down the ground.

- Holds his ground / keeps his feet very well

- Good non-defensive agility. Defensive and recovery agility vary with the situation but overall pretty good.. He occasionally struggles when turned inside out on the run. Conversely, he is good at turning an opponent inside out on the run and sharply doubling back.

- Good reflexes.

- Will have a powerful build for AFL KPP. At this stage, his body looks to be carrying a little puppy fat so there is some scope for further improvements in his athleticism once chiselled down a bit.

- Big leap.

*INTENSITY, ETHIC:

- Accountability was disappointing in various TAC games in '08. As mentioned above, he played with the arrogance of someone who knows he is going to get drafted and most of his opponents won't. In previous years he usually didn't give opponents an inch - gave them nothing and that his natural approach. I have no reason to worry about how his accountability will be when he plays AFL. He seems a proud, competitive kid and he will make his AFL opponents earn every touch.

- Attacks man, spoil and ball with intent. Excellent glove spoiler.

- Runs hard to present an option or in a chase.

- Gets own ball and shows desperation when required.

- Courageous

- Displays on-field leadership.

*CONSISTENCY:

- Very consistent at U18 level and I expect the same will apply at AFL level.

*AFL VERSATILITY:

- FB is his speciality but I wouldn't be surprised if he become a CHB either. Certainly he has the flexibility to play on the opposition's best key forward in either role and even on a much taller opponent. He would be one of the few players I would back to be a competitive opponent for Riewoldt (once he's had a bit of AFL experience).

- I think his ability as a forward is underrated. At the very least, he will be a player you can switch into the forward line and give the team a focus and a spark, capable of a couple of big grabs and goals within just a few minutes.

*CSI (COMPARATIVE SCOPE for IMPROVEMENT):

Less than normal. Mid-age but been right through the system and is already physically developed.

*SOME STATS:

- Stats summary '08 TAC:
Averaged 20 disposals in 11 local games. 2.1 contested marks (ranking No.9 in comp). 1.2 tackles. Total goals 15-6 .
17 kicks per 20 disposals (ranking No.6 for highest in comp).
Ineffective kicks: 3.1 per 10 kicks.
Ineff handballs: 3.2 per 10 handballs.
Ineffective disposals: 6.2 per 20 disp.
HandBall Receives: 5.0 per 20 disp. Uncontested marks: 3.6 per 20 disp. HR+UM: 8.6 per 20 disp.
Contested Marks: 2.1 per 20 disp.
At least: 20 disposals in 5 games, 25 in 3 games, 30 in 1 games.
- Mid-way trend ... % change in disposals was + 20%. % change in KI/10K was -25%. % change in Ineff/20D was -23%. % change in contested marks was -36%. % change in handball receives was + 25%. % change in tackles was + 33%.

- Stats summary '07 TAC:
Averaged 18 disposals in 17 TAC games. 1.7 contested marks. 1.7 tackles. Total goals 22-12.
15 kicks per 20 disposals.
Ineffective kicks: 3.0 per 10 kicks.
Ineff handballs: 1.8 per 10 handballs.
Ineffective disposals: 5.4 per 20 disp.
HandBall Receives: 4.7 per 20 disp. Uncontested marks: 3.2 per 20 disp. HR+UM: 7.9 per 20 disp.
Contested Marks: 1.9 per 20 disp.
At least 20 disposals in 8 games.
- Mid-way trend ... % change in disposals was + 1%. % change in KI/10K was -29%. % change in Ineff/20D was -30%. % change in contested marks was -37%. % change in handball receives was + 60%. % change in tackles was -37%.

- Stats summary '08 U18 Champs:
Averaged 12 disposals and 3.8 marks in his 5 games. (Best TD 15). (Tot TOG 0%).
Averaged 15 kicks per 20 disposals.
Kicks long vs short: 20-13 (6 long per 10 kicks).
Ineffective kicks: 11/44 (2.5 per 10 kicks), incl 8 clangers (1.8 per 10 kicks).
Ineff handballs: 2/15 (1.3 per 10 handballs), incl 1 clangers (0.7/10 hb).
Ineffective disposals: 13/59 (4.4 per 20 disp), incl 9 clangers (3.1 per 20 disp).
HandBall Receives: 14/59 (4.7 per 20 disp). Uncontested marks: 10/59 (3.4 per 20 disp). HR+UM: 24/59 (8.1 per 20 disp).
Contested marks: 9 (3.1 per 20 disp).
Hardball gets: 12/59 (4.1 per 20 disp).
SP Clears: 0/59 (0.0 per 20 disp), incl 0 CBC (0.0/20 disp) and 0 other BU (0.0/20 disp).
Tackles: 6 (Avg 1.2 per game).

- Stats summary '07 U18 Champs:
Averaged 13 disposals and 3.0 marks in his 3 games. (Best TD 16). (Tot TOG 100%).
Averaged 17 kicks per 20 disposals.
Kicks long vs short: 17-4 (8 long per 10 kicks).
Ineffective kicks: 10/32 (3.1 per 10 kicks), incl 5 clangers (1.6 per 10 kicks).
Ineff handballs: 0/6 (0.0 per 10 handballs), incl 0 clangers (0.0/10 hb).
Ineffective disposals: 10/38 (5.3 per 20 disp), incl 5 clangers (2.6 per 20 disp).
HandBall Receives: 9/38 (4.7 per 20 disp). Uncontested marks: 7/38 (3.7 per 20 disp). HR+UM: 16/38 (8.4 per 20 disp).
Contested marks: 2 (1.1 per 20 disp).
Hardball gets: 5/38 (2.6 per 20 disp).
SP Clears: 0/38 (0.0 per 20 disp), incl 0 CBC (0.0/20 disp) and 0 other BU (0.0/20 disp).
Tackles: 3 (Avg 1.0 per game).

*OTHER STUFF:

- All Aust TY.
- All Aust LY.
- AIS
- VM MVP in '08 Champs.
 
My impression on various occasions in '08 was of a kid who had become cocksure at U18 level and thought he could toy with opponents and not need to pay them the respect he would have in '07. His accountability was good in the '08 Champs but too often not good enough at TAC level. (e.g. Nathan O'Keefe kicked 3-4 goals on him in the first qtr against Eastern Ranges due to Hurley not paying him enough respect).


I don't understand this part. I should mention that i haven't seen him play live but from everything i have read i was of the understanding that the most goalas that he conceded in 2 years of TAC/champs footy was 4 and this only happened on one occasion. How could he be accused of not paying his opponents enough respect if he has such an amazing record of shutting down every opponent he has played on? I'm now confused.
 
I don't understand this part. I should mention that i haven't seen him play live but from everything i have read i was of the understanding that the most goalas that he conceded in 2 years of TAC/champs footy was 4 and this only happened on one occasion. How could he be accused of not paying his opponents enough respect if he has such an amazing record of shutting down every opponent he has played on? I'm now confused.

It was 5 by O'Keefe
 

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I don't understand this part. I should mention that i haven't seen him play live but from everything i have read i was of the understanding that the most goalas that he conceded in 2 years of TAC/champs footy was 4 and this only happened on one occasion. How could he be accused of not paying his opponents enough respect if he has such an amazing record of shutting down every opponent he has played on? I'm now confused.

I just want to say that it was a game that Hurley shouldn't have even played, he had suffered a ankle injury two weeks prior but wanted to play his last game.
 
Sounds like he will be a future star. Does anyone know where I can find the Wisbey profiles of other draftees?
 
I don't understand this part. I should mention that i haven't seen him play live but from everything i have read i was of the understanding that the most goalas that he conceded in 2 years of TAC/champs footy was 4 and this only happened on one occasion. How could he be accused of not paying his opponents enough respect if he has such an amazing record of shutting down every opponent he has played on? I'm now confused.

Becasue the shutting down of every opponent was an over statement and the hype grew into fact simply becasue a few people who did not know kept sprouting it as a fact.
The truth is he probaly beat 90% of his opponents during this time which is still pretty imprsessive given the next line of defenders where a bit behind him.
 
A good read. Does anyone know where these profiles are found for all the draftees?

There not. Colin posted a lot of profiles on here a few years ago but copped a bit of flack from a few areas so he stopped posting them.
I think the Collingwood fans took exception to where he rated a few of their draft choices and the fact that a few of his profiles ended up being well of the mark. People questioned his credentials so he stopped posting.
This was too bad as most people who do watch a lot of under 18 footy know that if you are getting 60 to 70% of your player evaluations right you are doing as well as the top recriters.
 
I just want to say that it was a game that Hurley shouldn't have even played, he had suffered a ankle injury two weeks prior but wanted to play his last game.

True but what Colin said about him this year had truth in it. There where games where he zoned off oponents and rolled the dice big time. Against the Cannons he did a similar thing against McKernan and was lucky to get away with it as the Calder players missed McKernan who was by himslef about 4 times inside 25 with poor kicks.
Not saying it will be a problem with Hurley at AFL level as he is a smart enough kid to know he wont get away with it in the big time.
 

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The thing I like about Wiseby is he is brutally honest about players, and you don't hear the faultless perceptions and fluff you get from BF and the media.
 
Wrongway Wisbey has one of the worst records I've ever seen.. some of the 12 year olds on BF do better than him in their mock drafts
When did he do a Mock Drafts? He just ranks them with his own rating system
 
Wrongway Wisbey has one of the worst records I've ever seen.. some of the 12 year olds on BF do better than him in their mock drafts

Can you give examples to back up your opinion.

Recruiting is seen as a success if you can predict about 70% of selected players.

And recruiting/drafting is a subjective subject, with opinions varying wildly at times.

He seemed to have rated the top 40 players which means that he is sitting on about 50%, without considering the second half of the draft.
 
have known hurls for about 6 yrs.
That profile is spot on.
Very well done
the man knows his footy.
Hopefully Hurls doesnt get bored cos he can be very cocky.
Can play and has the aggression we need
 
He's a guy who used to post profiles in a few places. Copped a lot of stick for a while and stopped putting them up here or on BB. I think he's worth reading, unfortunately some nuffies hold on to his mistakes and flame him
 

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Hurley Wisbey Profile - Enjoy

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