Independent report into Hobart's proposed new stadium has found the costs of the project have been significantly underestimated

[nobbyiscool]

Very very poor analysis to think day 1 crowds matters in a long term team.

Giants and GC will be much bigger than Tassy in the long term

How long is long term? Cos both these "new frontier" clubs are now 10 years old and have barely made a dent.

 

[boncer34]

Yes they did, after two Liberal senators left the party over the refusal of the leaders to be more transparent, over this very deal.

So Rockliff called an early election to get a mandate and lost majority government, now relying on Labour and several independents to provide supply to pass legislation. That didn't go so well for him did it, to call that a win is delusional.

You can't just poke your head into Tasmainian politics without understanding how different it is to most (ACT excluded) mainland states, the Hare-Clark voting system here is absurd.

Labour has promised to keep the government to the stadium's original budget, and they will. The upshot is the Liberals now have little to no chance of getting this through the two houses of parliament, in it's current form this deal is dead in the water.

Labor*

 

[Kappa]

How long is long term? Cos both these "new frontier" clubs are now 10 years old and have barely made a dent.

Long term is 1-2 generations.

It's stupid to think that 30 year old rusted on NRL fans would suddenly convert to AFL, clearly the plan is to go after the kids and get them interested so when they grow up more of them are into AFL than the previous generation.

The only certainty is Tasmania's long term growth is going be much much much smaller than western sydney / gold coast

 

[nobbyiscool]

Long term is 1-2 generations.

It's stupid to think that 30 year old rusted on NRL fans would suddenly convert to AFL, clearly the plan is to go after the kids and get them interested so when they grow up more of them are into AFL than the previous generation.

The only certainty is Tasmania's long term growth is going be much much much smaller than western sydney / gold coast

Ok... so we're over 10 years in - is that not 1 generation already? The kids who were targeted when these clubs started are starting to become young adults, and they still don't care.

 

[Walshawk]

Then you are either undercover or don’t go often.
Again Hobart is colder then Melbourne and a 25k seat stadium doesn’t block out the wind/weather in the same way a 100k seat stadium does.

It’s sort of irrelevant anyway. The AFL know that Tasmania is going to have retention issues, giving them an elite oval is atleast a small help.

I am Row J not undercover and go every game. If you made the grandstand roof cover all seats it would help.

Tasmania won’t have retention issues if they are winning.

 

[Walshawk]

Ok... so we're over 10 years in - is that not 1 generation already? The kids who were targeted when these clubs started are starting to become young adults, and they still don't care.

A generation is usually considered at 30 years, which is the average age women have children.

You are right , there has been virtually no growth for GWS or GC (as evidence by zero growth in crowds or ratings compared to population growth) but that is a topic for another thread.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Very very poor analysis to think day 1 crowds matters in a long term team.

Giants and GC will be much bigger than Tassy in the long term

Yet both are still leaking huge money to the AFL.

I doubt the Tasmanian team will be leaking as much within a decade.

 

[Outtatym]

Yet both are still leaking huge money to the AFL.

I doubt the Tasmanian team will be leaking as much within a decade.

They are also growing the game at grass roots levels where there has been huge movement. The AFL is essentially paying for that with the hopes of reaping the rewards in the long long run.

I agree Tas won't bleed money but the room for growth is minimal. The ability to draw players will be a huge issue for them as well. It's nice and makes everyone feel warm and fuzzy that they are included though ( as will Canberra)

 

[Kappa]

Yet both are still leaking huge money to the AFL.

I doubt the Tasmanian team will be leaking as much within a decade.

How much money are they leaking when they added a lot of money via tv revenue?

 

[Kappa]

Ok... so we're over 10 years in - is that not 1 generation already? The kids who were targeted when these clubs started are starting to become young adults, and they still don't care.

So 10 years is called a “decade”, not a generation.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

How much money are they leaking when they added a lot of money via tv revenue?

Tasmania will leak less as will be better supported.

That is the point.

TV rights don't worry where the teams are located... though will be happier with better atmosphere.

 

[Boxo004]

good to see some uneducated making comments on QLD footy without a clue

 

[Muddiemoose]

Long term is 1-2 generations.

It's stupid to think that 30 year old rusted on NRL fans would suddenly convert to AFL, clearly the plan is to go after the kids and get them interested so when they grow up more of them are into AFL than the previous generation.

The only certainty is Tasmania's long term growth is going be much much much smaller than western sydney / gold coast

Could also make the argument that any “new members” Tassie gain are just cannibalised from established sides or fans that would of been members of established sides in the future so it’s really not new money potentially entering the comp because they would of been invested in the comp anyway

 

[StillAtLarge]

Hope the whole project never goes ahead, Tassie has enough quality stadia already.
Play games in the North & South, don't deprive one to serve the other

 

[EBERT THE KING]

Very very poor analysis to think day 1 crowds matters in a long term team.

Giants and GC will be much bigger than Tassy in the long term

Ridiculous call on GWS.

My prediction is inside 10 years they have folded or moved to Northern Sydney.

They haven't made a dint in the Western Sydney market, and are falling further behind the NRL clubs in the region every day.

 

[Bjo187]

My goodness, footy participation is absolutely booming in qld and in particular on the gold coast, where it's become the biggest producer of high level talent per capita in the whole country lol.

The giants were affected by covid and it decimated the grassroots because the roots weren't yet ingrained enough. But even there you can see a slow upwards curve in their trajectory. They are actually getting higher attendances than the western sydney wanderers now, who were the toast of western sydney when they entered into the competition. Their crowds are near comparable to some western sydney nrl clubs. When they finish the train line direct to Olympic park that will be another boost, along with the 25k new residents planned for right outside their stadium. I suppose we should have closed the swans down a decade in too.

 

[EBERT THE KING]

My goodness, footy participation is absolutely booming in qld and in particular on the gold coast, where it's become the biggest producer of high level talent per capita in the whole country lol.

The giants were affected by covid and it decimated the grassroots because the roots weren't yet ingrained enough. But even there you can see a slow upwards curve in their trajectory. They are actually getting higher attendances than the western sydney wanderers now, who were the toast of western sydney when they entered into the competition. Their crowds are near comparable to some western sydney nrl clubs. When they finish the train line direct to Olympic park that will be another boost, along with the 25k new residents planned for right outside their stadium. I suppose we should have closed the swans down a decade in too.

You are drawing a long bow comparing the Giants to the Wanderers. Two sports at completely different ends of the landscape.

NRL has never drawn high crowds, and may never do so.

They havent made any significant inroads into the Western Sydney market, heading into their 14th season in the league.

Not to mention that fact they have made multiple Preliminary and grand finals in the last decade. What happens when they bottom out?

 

[nobbyiscool]

Ridiculous call on GWS.

My prediction is inside 10 years they have folded or moved to Northern Sydney.

They haven't made a dint in the Western Sydney market, and are falling further behind the NRL clubs in the region every day.

A few months ago a mate of mine, who lives in Sydney's outer west, sent me the photos from his daughter's school footy days.

90% of the kids are wearing Panthers tops, the other 10% are wearing a mixture of Parra, Souths, Canterbury and Western Sydney Wanderers. In 1 sample size of 25 8yo kids, there wasn't one Giants top; in the other sample size of 25 6yo kids, there wasn't one Giants top.

I suspect people would like to lazily put this down to Penrith's recent success, but it's not the case at all. All the recent success has done is highlight the incredible connection they have to their community, and the amount their community is completely invested in them.

The AFL has that in Tassie. They will never, ever have it in Penrith.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Hope the whole project never goes ahead, Tassie has enough quality stadia already.
Play games in the North & South, don't deprive one to serve the other

People seem to see Bellerive on TV and don’t realise how shit it is.

It’s literally in the middle of nowhere in suburbia. There is zero parking. You can get there by bus from the CBD - you need to change buses at least once and it takes half an hour or more. And being buses, it’s not efficient at bringing big crowds in or out.

There is nothing around it. Nowhere to get a feed or a beer before or after the game.

The locals screech and cry about any development.

It’s honestly a shit experience and plenty of people will not enjoy it. The diehards will put up with it to make the trip but you want more people than that and you want them enjoying themselves and spending money.

Compare it to Football Park or Waverley.

Macquarie Point will be a game changer and what you need to give a new club a big leg-up.

Hawthorn went to Tassie and there’s a reason they never even looked at playing in Hobart. Bellerive is just shit.

Launceston’s current stadium is fine and there isn’t any talk of replacing it, nor should there be. It should host a few games per year.

 

[EBERT THE KING]

A few months ago a mate of mine, who lives in Sydney's outer west, sent me the photos from his daughter's school footy days.

90% of the kids are wearing Panthers tops, the other 10% are wearing a mixture of Parra, Souths, Canterbury and Western Sydney Wanderers. In 1 sample size of 25 8yo kids, there wasn't one Giants top; in the other sample size of 25 6yo kids, there wasn't one Giants top.

I suspect people would like to lazily put this down to Penrith's recent success, but it's not the case at all. All the recent success has done is highlight the incredible connection they have to their community, and the amount their community is completely invested in them.

The AFL has that in Tassie. They will never, ever have it in Penrith.

Yep, this is correct.

Penrith getting a brand-new stadium of their own will help continue their dominance in the region.

NBL also eyeing off the west of Sydney for a new team as well, and that sprot has the best match-day experience for kids in the whole country.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

GC and GWS shouldn’t be compared to each other. The markets are so different it makes it pointless.

 

[Bjo187]

Yep, this is correct.

Penrith getting a brand-new stadium of their own will help continue their dominance in the region.

NBL also eyeing off the west of Sydney for a new team as well, and that sprot has the best match-day experience for kids in the whole country.

You know Penrith is outta west right? It's like saying why aren't there any kids wearing western bulldogs jumpers in Geelong. The giants focus areas are inner and central western sydney. They have finally decided to target specific suburbs, instead of spreading themselves too thin across the massive area.

You are drawing a long bow comparing the Giants to the Wanderers. Two sports at completely different ends of the landscape.

NRL has never drawn high crowds, and may never do so.

They havent made any significant inroads into the Western Sydney market, heading into their 14th season in the league.

Not to mention that fact they have made multiple Preliminary and grand finals in the last decade. What happens when they bottom out?

Why soccer is the most popular sport in western sydney, it's where the most Socceroos come out of. Their crowds were massive, they've won an Asian championship and an A league title, but they have slid behind the giants for crowds, a club who have never won a flag.

You are making the mistake of comparing the giants to afl clubs in footy heartland areas across 100 years, you should be comparing them to soccer and nrl clubs in western sydney, many of which that have been around for decades longer, in a sport that gets Sydney and national saturation media coverage, via their mates at news.corp.

 

[sherb]

They are also growing the game at grass roots levels where there has been huge movement. The AFL is essentially paying for that with the hopes of reaping the rewards in the long long run.

I agree Tas won't bleed money but the room for growth is minimal. The ability to draw players will be a huge issue for them as well. It's nice and makes everyone feel warm and fuzzy that they are included though ( as will Canberra)

Not in Western Sydney they're not (in the case of GWS).

 

[EBERT THE KING]

You know Penrith is outta west right? It's like saying why aren't there any kids wearing western bulldogs jumpers in Geelong. The giants focus areas are inner and central western sydney. They have finally decided to target specific suburbs, instead of spreading themselves too thin across the massive area.



Why soccer is the most popular sport in western sydney, it's where the most Socceroos come out of. Their crowds were massive, they've won an Asian championship and an A league title, but they have slid behind the giants for crowds, a club who have never won a flag.

You are making the mistake of comparing the giants to afl clubs in footy heartland areas across 100 years, you should be comparing them to soccer and nrl clubs in western sydney, many of which that have been around for decades longer, in a sport that gets Sydney and national saturation media coverage, via their mates at news.corp.

Yep, i understand where Penrith is. I could substitute them for Parramatta Eels its the same result.

I would argue right now, that the AFL is the most popular its ever been. Crowds and Membership are massive for most clubs. If GWS can't make a dint in their market now, they never will.
I would argue that the A-league is at its lowest ever point, which is impacting WSW crowds. Yeah they were big when they started, but have dropped right off in line with most other A-league teams. Soccer in Australia is arguably the worst administered sport in the world. They have continually fumbled any momentum they put in place.

The Giants are in serious trouble. The issues started when their funding and catchment areas were slashed because big Melbourne clubs thought they might get too good too quickly (Losing Riverina as a catchment zone a prime example of this).

Caroline Wilson, love her or hate her, is very connected and knowledgeable across the league and the industry. She has repeatedly called for the Giants to move some games to the SCG. She knows the West of Sydney has already dried up for them.

it helped at the start when every kid west of the Anzac bridge was given a free GWS membership upon signing up to Auskick, regardless of who they supported. Nice way to manipulate numbers, like when Richmond bought the Gyms and counted all members of the gyms as Richmond members.

 

[Boxo004]

A few months ago a mate of mine, who lives in Sydney's outer west, sent me the photos from his daughter's school footy days.

90% of the kids are wearing Panthers tops, the other 10% are wearing a mixture of Parra, Souths, Canterbury and Western Sydney Wanderers. In 1 sample size of 25 8yo kids, there wasn't one Giants top; in the other sample size of 25 6yo kids, there wasn't one Giants top.

I suspect people would like to lazily put this down to Penrith's recent success, but it's not the case at all. All the recent success has done is highlight the incredible connection they have to their community, and the amount their community is completely invested in them.

The AFL has that in Tassie. They will never, ever have it in Penrith.

It has absolutely everything to do with panthers success. Don’t be so naive. Giants inroads will be incremental but it is working. Is unfortunate for them that they’ve just been hit with a wall of Panthers success in past few years. Giants footprint is spreading outside just western Sydney. The Riverina/Canberra/ western NSW have all embraced the Giants. Suns is way more obvious at grass roots level.