Jayco AlUla thread

[Vader]

There's an interesting article here, reviewing the 2024 season and the WT relegations coming at the end of 2025.
https://velo.outsideonline.com/road...down-the-uci-points-team-rankings/?scope=anon

Jayco are well clear of the relegation zone, with Astana and B&B Hotels needing miracles to avoid being relegated.

Towards the bottom of the article they review how teams went compared to pre-season "2024 Team BTP NET Projections". Basically, they looked at the team rosters and the past performances of those riders, and predicted how the teams would go throughout the 2024 season.

Jayco were the standout worst performers, relative to the pre-season predictions. They were predicted to be the 5th best team, but finished a woeful 14th. The article puts it down to significant under-performance by 2 riders - Caleb Ewan and Simon Yates. Yates' transition from GC rider to occasional stage winner resulted in him claiming only 1/3 of his 2023 points tally, while Ewan's descent from mediocrity to outright shiteness has been well documented here.

 

[eth-dog]

There's an interesting article here, reviewing the 2024 season and the WT relegations coming at the end of 2025.
https://velo.outsideonline.com/road...down-the-uci-points-team-rankings/?scope=anon

Jayco are well clear of the relegation zone, with Astana and B&B Hotels needing miracles to avoid being relegated.

Towards the bottom of the article they review how teams went compared to pre-season "2024 Team BTP NET Projections". Basically, they looked at the team rosters and the past performances of those riders, and predicted how the teams would go throughout the 2024 season.

Jayco were the standout worst performers, relative to the pre-season predictions. They were predicted to be the 5th best team, but finished a woeful 14th. The article puts it down to significant under-performance by 2 riders - Caleb Ewan and Simon Yates. Yates' transition from GC rider to occasional stage winner resulted in him claiming only 1/3 of his 2023 points tally, while Ewan's descent from mediocrity to outright shiteness has been well documented here.

Velo have always overrated the squad tbf. We rocked up to each Grand Tour with a sprinter and a fringe top 7/8 GC candidate. Yates was never matching last year when the big 4 were riding the Tour, even though one abandoned. One bad day took out his GC ambitions for a top 5.

Using Yates at the Tour was always going to be stupid. If we had chosen to go with Zana or Dunbar we probably end up with a similar GC result and a much superior one at the Giro with Yates being at the very least equal to Martinez, Thomas (who's well past it) and O'Connor who were fighting for 2-4, if not better.

What will be interesting is to see O'Connor's schedule. He's better than Zana and Dunbar by 5-10 minutes GC wise and he's said he wants the Tour but if, as I suspect, none of the Big 4 ride the Giro he probably goes in as one of the favourites along with Simon Yates, Jai Hindley and Juan Ayuso if he chooses that.

 

[eth-dog]

Harper the final spot as expected. No official word on where Grondahl Jansen (probably Uno-X), Maas (who I think is very unlucky, he's a good workhorse), Quick and Porter are going. Quick should be able to find a ProTour team at a minimum, think he can end up as a good lead out rider. Porter I don't see it. Maas should get a WT team.

Hamilton signed for a year at Ineos. Probably domestique at one or two of the GT's?

 

[Orange Agent]

As rumoured, the South African MTB guy is in for 2 years. This is pretty left field, he is still racing MTB and somehow gonna combine WT racing. This rarely works, think it's a push from Giant rather than Greenedge, reckon the triathlon guy would have been the same. Matt White mentioned Harper in an interview a week ago maybe that he would likely do the Giro and Ben the Tour. Whatever the 2025 plans are, somebody contracted has to be going as the numbers don't add up.

 

[eth-dog]

As rumoured, the South African MTB guy is in for 2 years. This is pretty left field, he is still racing MTB and somehow gonna combine WT racing. This rarely works, think it's a push from Giant rather than Greenedge, reckon the triathlon guy would have been the same. Matt White mentioned Harper in an interview a week ago maybe that he would likely do the Giro and Ben the Tour. Whatever the 2025 plans are, somebody contracted has to be going as the numbers don't add up.

Looks like McKenzie is having one more year at Hagen's.

 

[eth-dog]

So Plapp said that he'll be joined by one of the European National champions for the TDU. I think Schmid is the most likely, as you probably roll Ewan out for sprint stages over Groenewegen, and Dunbar generally struggles in the heat. I think Bling stays in Europe for the early season Spanish classics and you probably want BOC here for the Nats for two reasons, one to have your shiny new GT leader here for a home summer of racing and the fact the Nats are in his home town this year. So for me, a very early prediction on our TDU team, and our first two GT's with nothing released yet:

TDU: Plapp, O'Connor climbers; Schmid opportunist; Hepburn workhorse; O'Brien, Stewart, Ewan sprint train

Giro: Plapp, Zana, Harper climbers; Gamper, Hepburn workhorses; Bling (with opportunities for himself), Stewart, Ewan train

TDF: O'Connor, Dunbar climbers; Durbridge, Sutterlin workhorses; Schmid opportunist; Walscheid, Mezgec, Groenewegen train

 

[yaco55]

So Plapp said that he'll be joined by one of the European National champions for the TDU. I think Schmid is the most likely, as you probably roll Ewan out for sprint stages over Groenewegen, and Dunbar generally struggles in the heat. I think Bling stays in Europe for the early season Spanish classics and you probably want BOC here for the Nats for two reasons, one to have your shiny new GT leader here for a home summer of racing and the fact the Nats are in his home town this year. So for me, a very early prediction on our TDU team, and our first two GT's with nothing released yet:

TDU: Plapp, O'Connor climbers; Schmid opportunist; Hepburn workhorse; O'Brien, Stewart, Ewan sprint train

Giro: Plapp, Zana, Harper climbers; Gamper, Hepburn workhorses; Bling (with opportunities for himself), Stewart, Ewan train

TDF: O'Connor, Dunbar climbers; Durbridge, Sutterlin workhorses; Schmid opportunist; Walscheid, Mezgec, Groenewegen train

Ewan is not riding the Nationals which rules him out of the TDU. Apparently Groenwegen ( who has asked for the last 2 years ) will be at the TDU. Dunbar is the leader at Alula Tour.

 

[eth-dog]

So Plapp said that he'll be joined by one of the European National champions for the TDU. I think Schmid is the most likely, as you probably roll Ewan out for sprint stages over Groenewegen, and Dunbar generally struggles in the heat. I think Bling stays in Europe for the early season Spanish classics and you probably want BOC here for the Nats for two reasons, one to have your shiny new GT leader here for a home summer of racing and the fact the Nats are in his home town this year. So for me, a very early prediction on our TDU team, and our first two GT's with nothing released yet:

TDU: Plapp, O'Connor climbers; Schmid opportunist; Hepburn workhorse; O'Brien, Stewart, Ewan sprint train

Giro: Plapp, Zana, Harper climbers; Gamper, Hepburn workhorses; Bling (with opportunities for himself), Stewart, Ewan train

TDF: O'Connor, Dunbar climbers; Durbridge, Sutterlin workhorses; Schmid opportunist; Walscheid, Mezgec, Groenewegen train

Swap Harper with BOC and Ewan with Durbridge and it's that team. Schmid the back up to Plapp it seems.

 

[yaco55]

Swap Harper with BOC and Ewan with Durbridge and it's that team. Schmid the back up to Plapp it seems.

Groenewegen and Dunbar are the leaders at the Alula Tour.

 

[Orange Agent]

Hatherly has started pretty well. Looked good on the climb 2 days ago, has bit of an unusual style, and yesterday makes the cut in the crosswinds whilst Dunbar missed it. Not bad for a guy learning how to race in a bunch.

 

[eth-dog]

Hatherly has started pretty well. Looked good on the climb 2 days ago, has bit of an unusual style, and yesterday makes the cut in the crosswinds whilst Dunbar missed it. Not bad for a guy learning how to race in a bunch.

Early call but I'd love to see him at the Giro this year. Massive chance for a breakaway stage win

 

[yaco55]

Thought Groenewegen looked really good in the sprint. You are doing well when you are close to Merlier. I guess Hatherly is going to the Oman Tour. I want to see him on longer climbs. Diasppointing for Plapp as he was my favorite for CEGORR.

 

[eth-dog]

Groenewegen schedule confirmed: AlUla (2x seconds), UAE Tour, KBK, Bredene Classic, Brugge-De Panne, Tour of Hallas, Schelderprijs, Tour de Hongrie, Slovenia, Copenhagen Sprint (new sprinters one day race) and TDF.

I still want Bling at Giro

 

[eth-dog]

Alan Hatherly gets his maiden win, claiming tha SA ITT title. Given his form early, would definitely have him in the Giro discussions. I think he'll be a good rider for 5-6 years

 

[nick23_]

Alan Hatherly gets his maiden win, claiming tha SA ITT title. Given his form early, would definitely have him in the Giro discussions. I think he'll be a good rider for 5-6 years

Definitely had a great start. Interested to see what the plans are moving forward regarding sprint situation, if Groenewegen will be kept, targeting someone like a Kooij etc

 

[eth-dog]

Definitely had a great start. Interested to see what the plans are moving forward regarding sprint situation, if Groenewegen will be kept, targeting someone like a Kooij etc

Groenewegen will get another 3 years I reckon. Kooij would be great but Welsford would be interesting.

 

[yaco55]

Groenewegen will get another 3 years I reckon. Kooij would be great but Welsford would be interesting.

Jayco had the chance to get Welsford last year but declined the offer. He is too similar to Groenewegen.

 

[eth-dog]

Jayco had the chance to get Welsford last year but declined the offer. He is too similar to Groenewegen.

Why's that a problem? He can learn off of him at training camp and it isn't as if they'd share a program.

Demare is interesting if Arkea fold too though.

 

[yaco55]

Why's that a problem? He can learn off of him at training camp and it isn't as if they'd share a program.

Demare is interesting if Arkea fold too though.

It's a problem because they will do the same type of races, especially one day races. Kooij is the one nut tough to get.

 

[Orange Agent]

Kooij is good enough to earn a full lead out and will likely have multiple offers in front of him. If he came to Jayco he would leapfrog DG, so they would need to make a choice between the 2. It is certain they need a number 2 sprint option because the ones used so far this year aren't adequate. Stewart hasn't come on, not even sure he's a decent lead out rider. The Gleb Syritsa situation is interesting, Lonardi on Polti is a good option, on better equipment he could take the next step and Kogut on IPT is maybe difficult to get but is a bit younger and has shown a bit. A sprinter that can get over hills would be better for squad balance which is exactly what Groves was.