What on earth does that have to do with the claim that the ALP (stupidly) made before the last election, which happens to be the current topic of discussion?
Jim CHALMERS
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What status do you have to define ‘the current discussion’?
Are you saying those who’ve invested in rooftop and reducing their power bulls are to be excluded from the discussion?
It seems the quote was an average of $275 ? Due to downward pressure because of renewables.
I get the $300 v $275 point. That was either joke or triggering depending on your view
I'd start with the post that you replied to...
Expecting bad economic news, Chalmers blames interest rate rises for 'smashing' economy
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has blamed successive interest rate rises for "smashing the economy", as the government braces for more weak economic figures due this week.
www.abc.net.au
Expecting bad economic news, Chalmers blames interest rate rises for 'smashing' economy
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has blamed successive interest rate rises for "smashing the economy", as the government braces for more weak economic figures due this week.
Even Wayne Swan would have done better than this humpty dumpty
haha.....that's the same Wayne Swan voted Finance minister of the year and only the second Australian to have that title?
Joshy Frydenberg might have been a better example
Gough
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How many surpluses did the Libs produce in government? For so long that was the gold standard for a Treasurer now it seems to have gone the way of the debt and deficit emergency.Even ScoMo would have been better and he already had 55 portfolios to deal with
The Howard/Costello years were Australia's greatest. The best tag team combination since The Hart Foundation.
Just a shame they sold a lot of our assets and we could have been set up like Norway but now we are paying more for our gas than we export it for.
Apart from the gun reform the only other memorable thing Howard did was show off his amazing cricket skills.
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...and that's with record immigration propping up the numbers.
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The wholesale spot price of electricity is falling…
Retailers aren’t passing on the savings because they need to hedge for price spikes.
Those price spikes are going to disappear soon due to large batteries and connectors. This will cause a drop in retail price IMO.
Australia’s most powerful battery ready for commissioning after achieving grid’s biggest connection
The most powerful battery in Australia, and biggest single power unit ever to be connected to the country’s main grid, has completed the first stage of its connection and commissioning proces…
reneweconomy.com.au
That's all well and good, but it's not what the then-opposition promised...The wholesale spot price of electricity is falling…
Retailers aren’t passing on the savings because they need to hedge for price spikes.
Those price spikes are going to disappear soon due to large batteries and connectors. This will cause a drop in retail price IMO.
Australia’s most powerful battery ready for commissioning after achieving grid’s biggest connection
The most powerful battery in Australia, and biggest single power unit ever to be connected to the country’s main grid, has completed the first stage of its connection and commissioning proces…
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Be patient .. 2025 hasn’t arrived yet.
You genuinely think that household power bills will be $275 a year lower next year than what they were in 2022?**
I'm talking average households, not ones that choose to go shopping or that can rely on rooftop solar to lower their annual costs.
**That is the very generous interpretation of what both the Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Treasurer claimed in the 2022 election campaign.
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Growth will remain poor while land prices are too high - this flows into everything in the economy. It can't be avoided.
Every single business is paying sky high prices just to exist - whether it is a new GP practice starting up, or a small business on the corner, to the family who are paying 60% of their income on the mortgage or rental payments.
This is not sustainable - and it will end in absolute carnage - i can't stress that enough - and the likes of Howard and Costello are to blame from the get go in my book. They openly encouraged the fetish of balanced budgets, while encouraging households to take on enormous debts just to live.
Land prices follow an 18 year cycle - 14 years up and 4 years down - when they crash - they take the economy with them.
1955
1972
1990
2008
?2025/26 - this one will be the BIG one in Australia. I expect banks to go bust.
In a nutshell, land prices get too high (through speculation - the tax system encourages people into land speculation afterall) - and people spend too much money on rent, leaving not enough to sustain the productive element of the economy. In other words, speculative debt crowds out productive enterprise.
I have some sympathy for Chalmers and what he will be facing in the next 12 to 18 months - our economy is like a rock climber who has become stuck on the cliff face, they can't go up or down, and their fate is now sealed.
We will be looking at asset price devaluations of considerable magnititude - both in the property and stock markets.
Anyone interested in what is coming - have a read of "The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking" by Phillip Anderson. Make an effort.
First of all, welcome and quite a first post.
When was the last time a big Australian bank went bust?
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Thank you.
Bankwest in 2008 was in a catastrophic position - at the height of the GFC. Bankwest was an icon in Western Australia - having started out as the Rural & Industrial Bank (R & I).
Bankwest was cut loose by HBOS - and left to fend for itself. Bankwest, at the time, was Australia's fifth largest lender. Bankwest's impaired loans had reached a staggering 28% of their total loan book value - this was an appalling rate.
Of course, Bankwest was taken over by CommBank and APRA ensured that the above never came into the mainstream. The superb book by Nathan Lynch, "The Lucky Laundry - How the Aussie Economy Got Hooked on the World's Dirtiest Cash" goes over all the details.
I don't think Australia's banks are well run at all. We will find out in due time of course.
Which was more due to HBOS issues not Bankwest. I know a lot of people who worked for Bankwest at the time and the staff that came in from HBOS were cowboys.
Royal Bank of Scotland and other UK banks had similar issues.
Compared to the US and UK banks I think our banks are relatively run well courtesy of APRA and ASIC.
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I disagree fundamentally with that. Quite strongly indeed. It depends on your definition of, "relatively well run".
A few years ago there were money laundering issues and compliance. Mortgage fraud. RAMS has been in the media lately. The list is long.
Time will tell of course. Let's agree to disagree.
Sexual orientation and gender questions to feature in next census
Questions on both sexual orientation and gender will feature in Australia's next census, as the federal government seeks to repair the fallout from earlier efforts to abandon questions about LGBTIQ+ identity.
www.abc.net.au
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Chalmers showing some policy ambition.
Furore fund czars don’t like it, but weren’t they once sprung investing in brothel premises overseas once?
www.smh.com.au
Furore fund czars don’t like it, but weren’t they once sprung investing in brothel premises overseas once?
Chalmers says Future Fund can’t be trapped in Costello’s past
Jim Chalmers has accused predecessor Peter Costello of being rolled into a “deliberately unhinged” attack on plans to encourage the $230 billion Future Fund to invest in new homes, renewable energy and cybersecurity.
Chalmers presides over $49b budget slump, biggest outside the pandemic
Michael ReadEconomics correspondent
Nov 25, 2024 – 10.30pm
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Higher spending and lower company tax revenue will push the budget into a deeper deficit this financial year, according to economists at Deloitte who forecast Treasurer Jim Chalmers will have presided over the largest deterioration in government finances on record outside the pandemic.
Economic management will be one of the major issues at next year’s federal election amid widespread voter discontent over several years of high interest rates and rapidly rising prices.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has admitted the budget will be “a bit weaker” than forecast in May, as Deloitte warns of a record-breaking deterioration in the bottom line. Rachael Bolton
While Labor has scheduled the 2024-25 federal budget for March 25, the Albanese government may decide it is not in its political interest to proceed with one before the election.
If the election is called before that date, the government would not have to reveal four years of deep deficit projections, and the mid-year budget update next month would be Dr Chalmers’ final economic statement before voters head to the polls.
Deloitte Access Economics’ half-yearly budget monitor report projects the federal government will post an underlying deficit of $33.5 billion this financial year, worse than Treasury’s forecast of a $28.3 billion deficit at the May budget.
“If realised, that would represent a deterioration in the budget bottom line of more than $49.3 billion following the $15.8 billion surplus inked in 2023-24,” Deloitte Access Economics partner Stephen Smith said.
“That stunning turnaround in Australia’s fiscal fortunes would be the largest nominal contraction in the underlying cash balance on record, excluding the pandemic-hit budget of 2019-20.”
Deloitte expects the budget deficit to be $26.9 billion worse off cumulatively over the four-year forward estimates compared to Treasury’s forecast in May.
Over the next four years, Deloitte expects Treasury will collect $16.4 billion less in revenue than forecast this financial year as a softening economy weighs on company tax revenue, while expenses are expected to be $11.2 billion higher as a result of inflation, which increases the cost of indexation.
The deficits will be even wider if, as is expected, the Albanese government takes more cost-of-living relief to the next election, including renewing its $300 household electricity bill subsidy.
Deloitte said the driving force behind the past two budget surpluses had been higher than expected commodity prices. The past four budget updates revealed $80 billion in revenue upgrades on average.
“Relying on ‘unforeseen’ revenue upgrades is not a sustainable fiscal strategy,” Deloitte said.
Despite the stage three tax cuts on July 1, Deloitte expects income tax collections will actually be higher than forecast in May due to the ongoing strength in the jobs market.
Responding to Deloitte’s report, Dr Chalmers admitted the mid-year update in December will be “a bit weaker” than the May budget “but still much stronger than what we inherited”.
“We’ve warned for some time that pressures on the budget are building, not easing, and this is consistent with that,” Dr Chalmers said.
The widening in Treasury’s official deficit forecast appears due to higher spending rather than a lower tax take after Dr Chalmers flagged last week that a very modest revenue upgrade was likely in the mid-year update.
Mr Smith said it was possible that the mid-year update would be the last government budget update before the next federal election, which must be held on or before May 17.
“Perhaps understandably so … it’s not a great set of fiscal numbers for the treasurer to be handing down,” he said.
Veteran budget watcher Chris Richardson said the mid-year budget update would be the first touch of bad luck after more than two years of significant revenue upgrades.
“We have not had good management. We’ve had good luck, and good luck is temporary,” he said.
Chalmers presides over $49b budget slump, biggest outside the pandemic
The Australian treasurer has admitted the budget will be “a bit weaker” than forecast in May, as Deloitte warns of a record-breaking deterioration in the bottom line.
So they include the previous years surplus with the deloitte(not treasury) forecast deficit to get to 49 billion dollar fall!
Chalmers presides over $49b budget slump, biggest outside the pandemic
The Australian treasurer has admitted the budget will be “a bit weaker” than forecast in May, as Deloitte warns of a record-breaking deterioration in the bottom line.www.afr.com
AFR pumping the 'economic managers' thing.
People really need to read some basic MMT stuff; a deficit is simply money made up by the govt going into the economy, a surplus the opposite. Where and how that money is allocated(or not) is the interesting bit. The debt/economy is not some god to be sacrificed to
