KA's Dream Team bets

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Scully over 78.5 @1.72 (5U) luxbet

Have gone big on this. Gold Coast are a good team to score against and don't tag. Although Scully doesn't have a good record against GC, he generally covers this line quite comfortably when he doesn't get tagged. Backing him to step up with no Ward.

Ablett under 112.5 @1.82 (3U) luxbet

Ablett is either carrying an injury or out of gas. Hasn't gone close to this line recently and will most likely have Whiley running with him.
 

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I don't mind O'Meara under 88.5 at 1.95. Leg injury from last week combined with the fact that Mckenna won't want to overextend his gun mid in a dead rubber might see him play off the ball/warm the bench a bit. Recently he has struggled to hit that line on a good day.

Combine all the above with the fact gws tag something fierce and it all looks good for the unders.
 
Butler said:
Scully over 78.5 @1.72 (5U) luxbet

Have gone big on this. Gold Coast are a good team to score against and don't tag. Although Scully doesn't have a good record against GC, he generally covers this line quite comfortably when he doesn't get tagged. Backing him to step up with no Ward.
Click to expand...

Agree with your reasoning there Butler. Only taken the 1U as I'm not as confident as you are.
Scully can be a bit hit-and-miss and there is always a chance Sheedy will play him as a tagger (Harbow/Bennell).

timcorb said:
I don't mind O'Meara under 88.5 at 1.95. Leg injury from last week combined with the fact that Mckenna won't want to overextend his gun mid in a dead rubber might see him play off the ball/warm the bench a bit. Recently he has struggled to hit that line on a good day.

Combine all the above with the fact gws tag something fierce and it all looks good for the unders.
Click to expand...

O'Meara has only gone over 88 once in his past five games and only 4-5 times this year. Only thing is he has gone mighty close, number of a times he is only off a handpass/kick of going over.
Playing against GWS should net him more points, a little too 50/50 for me to take it.
 
Ummm, do you reckon McCaffer will go to Wells or Harvey?
I'm thinking Wells but his line is only at 89.5 and I've been burnt the last few times. (Read: He is in good form)
 
Keystone agony said:
2U J.MCveigh under 97.5 (1.87) WIN
Scored poorly vs them earlier in season, think he could get a tag. Hard to score against hawks and also poor scoring stadium expecting hawks to win pretty comfortably.

2U Barlow over Montagna (1.88) LOSS
Have a feeling Barlows rest was partially last week. I think D.Pearce will get tagged and so will Montagna by the creepy crowley. Should be plenty of midfield and sandilands tap time for Barlow without the others, just has to avoid the tag.

2U Deledio over 96.5 (1.85) LOSS
Usually gets tagged by Hocking. I dont think Essendon will be able to stay in this match for long and they will likely allow easy handball recieves in this game which helps Deledio. Easy tigers win, at MCG. May get a Melksham tag but i think he should be alright in good conditions at the G this saturday. Has been very good last 3 weeks DT wise

2U K.Simpson over Gibbs (1.80) LOSS
The big worry is a Kornes tag but he has dominated 6 of the past 7 weeks scoring above 103 in those games. Gibbs has been ordinary playing a backline/defensive midfield role in his last 8 only twice above 78. I think Kornes will do a midfield tag on M.Murphy.

3U Kornes over Boak (1.75) WIN
Expecting Curnow to go to Boak and keep up his tremendous record this year. Kornes a good scorer and 103 top for port last time they met.

3U T.Cotchin over 92.5 (1.75) WIN
Has been poor against GWS and calrton with heavy tags but he will be relieved of any heavy attention this week at the MCG good conditions, No Hocking and a defeated essendon should see him go well.

2U J.Selwood under 120.5 (1.87) WIN
Huge line. Raines tag usually stops him.

1U Mzungu over Ray/D.Pearce (2.65) LOSS
More midfield time for Mzungu with all the outs. Expecting a D.Pearce tag from C.Jones, just needs to beat Ray.

2U Lobbe over Monfries (1.72) WIN
Lobbe avg 122 past 3 and his last 7-8 as sole ruck been very nice. He was my huge sneaky ruck i was gonna start with this year but didnt end up doing and he started slowly. Monfries a low 70 scorer unless he bags 7 goals (121) or 4 goals (98) cant see it happening though.

2U Leuy over Hanley (1.85) LOSS
Rucks usually score well against the cats who are pretty poor with their ruck stocks. Leuy in good form. Hanley scored poorly on them last time and i think is a bit out of form and may struggle getting smashed by the cats. Not that confident with this one.

2U Minson over Cross (1.88) LOSS
Rucks kill Melbourne. Its crossys last game so they may well try get the footy in his hands alot but im expecting 110 from Will.

2U K.Simpson over 90.5 (1.87) LOSS
6/7 past scores above 103. Needs to hopefully avoid Kornes tag.

2U Priddis over Douglas (1.75) WIN
Douglas been poor last 5. Priddis went 120~ on them earlier in season and going great last few weeks aswell.

2U Boak under 103.5 (lux) 1.87 WIN
Click to expand...

Now i put more bets on for the sunday games. Happy to prove them to people if needed.

2U Griffen under 110.5 (1.70) WIN

2U R.Murphy over 82.5 (1.70) WIN

2U Wells under 89.5 (1.87) WIN

2U S.Sidebottom under 103.5 (2.00) WIN

2U Gaff under 75.5 WIN (2.08)

2U Wellingham over Vince/(Unsure who others were) but LOSS

RESULT: +6.36 UNITS
 
Its amazing how you should just stick to your own guns basically what i do before each round is look to see what i think will happen.

So it was
Montagna unders (poor)
Griffen unders (poor)
Minson overs (good)
R.Murphy overs (good)
Gaff unders (poor)
Boak unders (poor)
Cotch overs (good)
Deledio overs (good)
Wells unders (poor)

Most of those won, most of my losses came outside of that with 4 units on K.Simpson which LOSS and Leuy LOSS Wellingham LOSS Mzungu LOSS

I basically went chasing once i saw the bets up with those last 3 and admittingly with Priddis, Mcveigh, Sidebottom aswell, but even with these much more confidence and mot just chasing.
 
Updated Results
ROUND 10 (+12.61 units)
ROUND 11 (+9.97 units)
ROUND 12 (-0.13 units)
ROUND 13 (+0.76 units)
ROUND 14 (+8.58 Units)
ROUND 15 (+4.2 Units)
ROUND 16 (+1.64 Units)
ROUND 17 (+14.22 Units)
ROUND 18 (+6.5 Units)
ROUND 19 (+4 Units)
ROUND 20 (+11.155 Units)
ROUND 21 (+5.47 Units)
ROUND 22 (+1.01 Units)
ROUND 23 (+6.36 Units)

Year To Date +88.335 Units

Unsure if there will be many DT bets for the finals? Aiming to make 100 Units is certainly still a very likley chance. For those who have followed i hope youve enjoyed some success.
 

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Disappointing to see that Sportingbet/Centrebet aren't doing any DT markets during the finals. Luxbet have added more markets but unfortunately their markets for todays game have already been smashed. Selwood under 113.5 is already down to 1.49...

Don't really like anything on Betstar or Sportsbet so probably a quiet weekend for me.
 
I don't mind Kelly > 92.5 @ $1.80 (Sportsbet) - Undecided whether I will take it yet though.
I've gone Christensen > Neale @ $1.65 (Bet365) - Not sure if you have an account with them though.
 
Just for the GF the way i see it

Mzungu will go to I.Smith
Crowley to Mitchell

I think the hawks will target S.Hill and either tag him with Shiels or Lewis

For any of those 3 that are tagged if luxbet are still doing DT bets back them in as unders pending line.
 

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