Keystone Agony and Butlers Dream Team bets

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Also got under the D.Martin under 98.5 (0.5 units) Lux $1.76 for me

Didnt score well against the blues last year. I think he will play forward more however with the rain i cant see him getting as many marks and kicks as he usually does.

Tempted to go Deledio over Cotch or Cotch unders but have decided against it. Think Curnow will be his man but hes still good enough against him to be able to tonne up i feel.
 
Ebert > Boak @1.95 (1U) Betstar
Ebert>Boak, Dangerfield, Cornes, Hartlett, Wright, Sloane, Douglas @6 (0.5U) Sportsbet
Ebert>Boak, Dangerfield, Cornes, Hartlett, Westhoff, Wright, Sloane, Douglas, Wines, Thompson @8 (1U) Luxbet
Ebert scored a solid 100 with Curnow following him around the ground cutting off his +6's. Plays a more friendly DT game than Boak and I would back him in to outscore Boak on most occasions. Boak is also more a a tag risk. I also think he is a good chance to end up the top scorer in this game with Cornes as his main risk.

Masten > Priddis @2.05 (1U) Betstar
Masten>Lecras, Rosa, Wellingham, Grimes, Terlich, Dunn, Howe @3.50 (1U) Sportsbet
I feel this is an overreaction to Mastens quiet game last week. He is a lot better as a DTer than his round 1 suggests. Backing him in to bounce back and outscore Priddis. Masten also scored 120 against Melbourne last year and he is the type of player that scores very well against them.

Also added the Sportsbet group as he would usually be listed in group 1. Again, I think they have overcorrected on round 1's performance.

Barlow>Fyfe @1.75 (2U) Sportsbet
Fyfe always runs the risk of getting tagged. He hasn't played against GC since 2011 but I think someone will go to him. Even if he is let free I would still back Barlow in.

Hanley>Leuenburger @1.88 (1U) Sportsbet
Leuenburger now has West as a backup ruck which I'm predicting his scores to suffer from. Only worry is Hanley getting the tag.

Heppell>Zaharakis @1.80(1U) Sportsbet
Heppell is a +6 expert and a better DTer than Zaha.

A lot of bets already for the round considering they don't include my Luxbet bets which I generally bet the most with.
 
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D.Martin under 98.5 (0.5 units) Lux $1.76 WIN

Heppell over Zacka @1.75 (IAS) 0.5U LOSS

B.Goddard Under 103.5 @1.87 (Lux) 1U WIN
As good as he was week one this is a much tougher opponent. Wont be expecting him to kick the goals he did against the hawks and i dont think the dons will dominate possession as much against the hawks.

J.Kennedy (Syd) over Hanneberry @1.88 (IAS) 1U WIN
Hanneberry just seems so out of form through entire NAB cup and round one. Whereas i think JJK is good for a 90-105 here.

N.Riewoldt over Ward @1.90 (IAS) 1U WIN
GWS have no key defenders with Davis and Mohr out. Expect to see him run players ragged and he loves etihad against GWS i think he could be in for a similar score to last week. Ward a chance for some sort of tag aswell.

Back in the positive books this week

Round 2
+2.53 Units
 
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Butler said:
Ebert > Boak @1.95 (1U) Betstar WIN
Ebert>Boak, Dangerfield, Cornes, Hartlett, Wright, Sloane, Douglas @6 (0.5U) Sportsbet LOSS
Ebert>Boak, Dangerfield, Cornes, Hartlett, Westhoff, Wright, Sloane, Douglas, Wines, Thompson @8 (1U) Luxbet LOSS
Ebert scored a solid 100 with Curnow following him around the ground cutting off his +6's. Plays a more friendly DT game than Boak and I would back him in to outscore Boak on most occasions. Boak is also more a a tag risk. I also think he is a good chance to end up the top scorer in this game with Cornes as his main risk.
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Not cool. Ebert went into the last quarter with a 23 point lead only to put in a 6 point quarter compared to Cornes 38.
 
Butler said:
D.Martin under 98.5 @1.87 (2U) Luxbet

Malthouse loves to tag and I can't see him letting Martin roam around half back by himself all night.
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Butler said:
Ebert > Boak @1.95 (1U) Betstar WIN
Ebert>Boak, Dangerfield, Cornes, Hartlett, Wright, Sloane, Douglas @6 (0.5U) Sportsbet LOSS
Ebert>Boak, Dangerfield, Cornes, Hartlett, Westhoff, Wright, Sloane, Douglas, Wines, Thompson @8 (1U) Luxbet LOSS
Ebert scored a solid 100 with Curnow following him around the ground cutting off his +6's. Plays a more friendly DT game than Boak and I would back him in to outscore Boak on most occasions. Boak is also more a a tag risk. I also think he is a good chance to end up the top scorer in this game with Cornes as his main risk.

Masten > Priddis @2.05 (1U) Betstar WIN
Masten>Lecras, Rosa, Wellingham, Grimes, Terlich, Dunn, Howe @3.50 (1U) Sportsbet WIN
I feel this is an overreaction to Mastens quiet game last week. He is a lot better as a DTer than his round 1 suggests. Backing him in to bounce back and outscore Priddis. Masten also scored 120 against Melbourne last year and he is the type of player that scores very well against them.

Also added the Sportsbet group as he would usually be listed in group 1. Again, I think they have overcorrected on round 1's performance.

Barlow>Fyfe @1.75 (2U) Sportsbet WIN
Fyfe always runs the risk of getting tagged. He hasn't played against GC since 2011 but I think someone will go to him. Even if he is let free I would still back Barlow in.

Hanley>Leuenburger @1.88 (1U) Sportsbet WIN
Leuenburger now has West as a backup ruck which I'm predicting his scores to suffer from. Only worry is Hanley getting the tag.

Heppell>Zaharakis @1.80(1U) Sportsbet LOSS
Heppell is a +6 expert and a better DTer than Zaha.

A lot of bets already for the round considering they don't include my Luxbet bets which I generally bet the most with.
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Butler said:
Adding an extra unit on Hanley>Leuenburger @1.88 WIN

And Vince>Jones @1.95 (1U) LOSS

Both with Sportsbet
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Round 2 totals: 6-0-4 for +6U
YTD: 14-0-11 for +10.95U

Another good round but could have been so much bigger if Ebert had of held on. Still happy with it.
 
2U L.Montagna over N.Riewoldt @1.80
Feel that Mckenzie will do a very good job on him and with guys like Glass and Brown helping out he will struggle and score a 70-80. Mckenzie this year has only allowed Howe 52 and J.Stringer 39 in his 2 appearances so far, however all would agree NROO is a much greater proposition.

1.5U Cotchin under 105.5 @1.87
Usually plays well against the dogs, however with Deledio out Wallis goes to Cotchin with a hard tag. So far he has kept Shuey to 60 for 3 quarters and Wells to just 54. I expect Cotchin with this tag to still find a solid 80.

1U Heppell over Stanton @1.90
Stanton always gets the Curnow tag. This may change but is highly likely to occur. Curnow did a solid job on Cotchin last week keeping him to just 79 and has great success on Stanton. Stanton hasnt been as damaging this year so he may well go to Zacka which would hurt this bet. Heppell should find plenty of the pill as usual - loves +6's. However he did spend more time across half back last week.

0.5U K.Simpson over Curnow @1.75
Ive always thought Simpson has struggled against quality opposition one on one. He might struggle against Chapman or Winderlich whoever he lines up on. However with the likeliness of Curnow tagging Stanton i dont think Curnow will score that well. He has so far this season but i expect Simpson to just get the chocolates here. Simpson had 98 and 120 on the blues last year. Curnow had 55 and 53.

1U Sandilands over Mundy @1.88
With Mcevoy out he should win the ruck contest quite comfortably and also go forward and cause some troubles for the hawks small backline. Mundy without Barlow and Fyfe his help will be lessened and he will be the only big body around the contest for freo expect Lewis and the hawks midfield to wear him down.


All bets so far are with IAS
 
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0.5U Ablett over 109.5 Lux
Without Raines i think this is a modest line considering IAS have his line at 119.5 (10 more). I do think Rocky will do some kind of job so havent gone huge on this.

0.5U Griffen under 98.5 LUX
Still getting back into the swing even if he fires he will be quick to have a jackson tag. Only scored 40 odd last week. Tigers are a tough ask aswell. Certainly not at his best right now.
 
Will update this post when I get time but will just quickly post my bets so far.

The non tag over tag bets all with Betstar:

Treloar over Ward (2U)
SJ over Selwood (2U)
Vince over Jones (2U)

A big one:
Ebert over Wines (4U) Sportsbet

And:

Rockliff under 105.5 (1U) Luxbet
 
Adding:

Swan> Selwood, SJ, Pendlebury, Beams, Bartel, Kelly, Ball, Sidebottom, Stokes, Cloke and Mackie @10 (1U) Luxbet

Swan has been in average form and hasn't looked like scoring big in his first 2 weeks but he is Dane Swan and @10:1 he is worth a shot. Hoping he fires up after his poor performance last week.
 

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Keystone agony said:
2U L.Montagna over N.Riewoldt @1.80 WIN
Feel that Mckenzie will do a very good job on him and with guys like Glass and Brown helping out he will struggle and score a 70-80. Mckenzie this year has only allowed Howe 52 and J.Stringer 39 in his 2 appearances so far, however all would agree NROO is a much greater proposition.

1.5U Cotchin under 105.5 @1.87 LOSS
Usually plays well against the dogs, however with Deledio out Wallis goes to Cotchin with a hard tag. So far he has kept Shuey to 60 for 3 quarters and Wells to just 54. I expect Cotchin with this tag to still find a solid 80.

1U Heppell over Stanton @1.90
Stanton always gets the Curnow tag. This may change but is highly likely to occur. Curnow did a solid job on Cotchin last week keeping him to just 79 and has great success on Stanton. Stanton hasnt been as damaging this year so he may well go to Zacka which would hurt this bet. Heppell should find plenty of the pill as usual - loves +6's. However he did spend more time across half back last week.

0.5U K.Simpson over Curnow @1.75
Ive always thought Simpson has struggled against quality opposition one on one. He might struggle against Chapman or Winderlich whoever he lines up on. However with the likeliness of Curnow tagging Stanton i dont think Curnow will score that well. He has so far this season but i expect Simpson to just get the chocolates here. Simpson had 98 and 120 on the blues last year. Curnow had 55 and 53.

1U Sandilands over Mundy @1.88 WIN
With Mcevoy out he should win the ruck contest quite comfortably and also go forward and cause some troubles for the hawks small backline. Mundy without Barlow and Fyfe his help will be lessened and he will be the only big body around the contest for freo expect Lewis and the hawks midfield to wear him down.

0.5U Ablett over 109.5 Lux @1.87 WIN
Without Raines i think this is a modest line considering IAS have his line at 119.5 (10 more). I do think Rocky will do some kind of job so havent gone huge on this.

0.5U Griffen under 98.5 LUX @1.80 WIN
Still getting back into the swing even if he fires he will be quick to have a jackson tag. Only scored 40 odd last week. Tigers are a tough ask aswell. Certainly not at his best right now.

Keystone agony said:
Also gone martin 1U over 97.5 betstar LOSS

loves playing dogs at etihad high scoring ground and dogs have no good matchups for him forward
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Keystone agony said:
3U NROO under 107.5 @1.66 (Lux) WIN
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ROUND 3 To Date
5-0-2
(+2.8 Units)
 
Ebert over 94.5 @1.87 (4U) luxbet

Got a lot riding on Ebert today but 94.5 is very low for him. Shouldn't get tagged against North so I'm expecting another 100+ game from him.

Also should note that I have finally adjusted my bankroll for the year so will make the adjustments to my tally at the end of this round. Basically what has been 2U will now be 1 (last year was very much a trial run).
 
Round 4

Luke Parker over Franklin 2U @1.75 (IAS)
Franklin to get a very good defender in ST. Parker should like the tight tussle and bussle game against the roos at the SCG he is playing more midfield but also very capable of kicking goals when forward.

Kade Simpson over M.Murphy 1U @2.05 (Betstar) WIN
J.Mckenzie has come in and i expect him to tag Murphy

B.Gibbs over M.Murphy 1U @2.00 (IAS) WIN
Read above

Pendlebury over Cotchin 4U @1.80 (IAS) WIN
Cotchin to get the Macaffer tag against a far superior DTer in Pendlebury against the tigers who dont run with any hard tags

N.Jones under 97.5 1.5U @1.87 (ias) WIN
Expecting the Curnow tag. Jones didnt get tagged against the saints where he destroyed it and a very soft run with from Selwood. With rain and a tag i dont think he will go as big as he did in the first 2 rounds.

One more that i really like to come, will be my biggest play
 
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Had a shocking round last weekend. Will update my totals when I get a chance but I'm now down for the year I believe after a few close losses. Oh well, on to this round.

My bets so far (with updated bankroll/unit size):

Goddard over Mundy @1.88 (2U) Sportsbet
Good chance Hocking will go to Mundy but even if he doesn't Essendon are the DT kings at the moment. Expecting some big scores to come from Essendon players again this week on the wide open spaces of Subi.

Jones under 97.5 @1.87 (1U) Sportsbet
Vince over Jones @2.10 (1U) Betstar
Basically the same reason as KA. Expecting Jones will get either Curnow or Carrazzo.

Treloar over Ward @1.95 (1U) Betstar
I think Wallis will go to Ward. If that happens then Treloar should win this. Worried that they might decide to tag Treloar due to his form though.

Pendlebury over Cotchin @1.70 (2U) Sportsbet
As KA said, Cotchin will get Macaffer and Pendlebury is just a better DTer at this stage. I believe Deledio is the only Tiger to average over 100 against Collingwood recently.
 
My other big play was the one already recognised by Butler

Goddard over Mundy @1.88 (2U) (IAS)
Dropped it back to just 2 units instead of 3 which i had originally thought of doing. Mundy to get Hocking tag have a tough day. Goddard in great form i cant see Mundy going much better than 80.

1U H.Hartlett @4.50 (group 2) (IAS) over Westhoff, Leunenberger, Moloney, Polec, Lobbe, Adcock, Mayes. LOSS
I see port winning comfortably. Brissy dont tag at the moment too much. Hartlett has got better each week so far. Expecting Patful to keep Westhoff to around 80. Leuy and Lobbe out of form scoring wise. Polec a rookie still but the major danger. Moloney doesnt go big. Adcock not scoring and Mayes relying on goals which the lions wont get.

1U Macrae @3.5 (group 2) (IAS) over Greene, Minson, Rob Murphy, H.Shaw, Kelly, Scully WIN
Hes the far superior scorer and the game looks wet good for his tackles and possession game. Murphy got tagged last time, Minson is udner scoring and up against mummy. Kelly rookie, Scully not scoring big, Greene either. H.Shaw seems the danger for Macrae.

1U EACH on Mackie @5, Bartel @5, duncan @4 over Darling, Gaff, Kennedy, NicNat, Caddy WIN
Gonna be wet and tough for talls in Nicnat, Darling and Kennedy. Gaff also loves mark kicks but wet wont allow and cats should win easily. Caddy the main danger but hes scoring 60's last 2 weeks.
 
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Tailing Goddard/Mundy bet.

Butler especially, what do you guys think of the Johnson ($1.75) v J.Selwood ($2) H2H bet on Sportsbet?

Surely with the rain (more tackles/disposals for Selwood) Selwood would be worthwhile @ $2? Butler, I addressed this more to you because I was interested in who you thought, as an Eagles supporter, would be options to tag and who would the Eagles usually tag out of Selwood/Johnson?

Selwood has won this H2H 2-1 this year, but Johnson is also more able to go big (140+).

Cheers guys.
 
TheMcGrathMan said:
Tailing Goddard/Mundy bet.

Butler especially, what do you guys think of the Johnson ($1.75) v J.Selwood ($2) H2H bet on Sportsbet?

Surely with the rain (more tackles/disposals for Selwood) Selwood would be worthwhile @ $2? Butler, I addressed this more to you because I was interested in who you thought, as an Eagles supporter, would be options to tag and who would the Eagles usually tag out of Selwood/Johnson?

Selwood has won this H2H 2-1 this year, but Johnson is also more able to go big (140+).

Cheers guys.
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Its a H2H bet i would avoid.

One of them will get S.Selwood tag to how much affect im not sure it will have.

But the other one should beat the one with the S.Selwood tag.

FWIW i think he will go to his brother.

Quick research has tagged his brother the last 3 times they have played for scores of 135, 88 and 107.
 
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Keystone agony said:
Its a market i would avoid.

One of them will get S.Selwood tag to how much affect im not sure it will have.

But the other one should beat the one with the S.Selwood tag.

FWIW i think he will go to his brother.
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Fair enough points. I might just put 0.5U on it anyway as I feel Joel Selwood $2 against anyone bar Ablett/Swan at their peaks is good value. He gets the ball, gets tackles, and can kick goals all leading to possible 115+.
I just compared the Sportsbet market (Johnson $1.75, Selwood $2) to the bet365 market (Selwood $1.85, Johnson $1.90). Odd. Usually fairly similar.
 

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