Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[Heaps of fun]

Aaron Hall exploring opportunities and possibly joining North Melbourne (they should probably aim for North's 2019 first round pick).

Gold Coast won't be asking for anything close to that.

 

[Knightmare]

It's important to keep in mind that Hodge isn't the only leader at Brisbane. Beams and Martin have also been good veteran leaders who the kids look up to. In a vacuum we lost the Beams trade but I maintain his leadership during the years of garbage were important.

My point is, Brisbane wasn't lifted out of the depths by just one man, and neither will Gold Coast.

Beams, Martin, Zorko. They're components to a leadership group. But there isn't the one standout leader in that group who sets the tone and direction of the playing group. The addition of Hodge has as per my previously linked article by Witherden made Zorko and Beams particularly into much better leaders and has helped them set the tone for professionalism/honest constructive feedback etc.

Brisbane's list dynamic pre-Hodge was too young with only Martin over the age of 28, making the environment at that time a poor one for player development.

Hey I was just wondering if you could give me your opinion on Sam Stuart's weaknesses? I only saw him play once this year and he looks like he could be anything. Seems to have some special attributes in the Rozee mould. I think he might end up being a draft steal on the limited viewing I have seen.

The only thing I'm not sure about with Sturt is whether he can push up the ground and through the midfield. Don't know whether his endurance plays a part, but his work rate playing close to goal has been good. Everything else I feel comfortable with and don't see that gaping hole. Probably the best left foot kick in the draft - terrific to target and on goal. Outstanding mark with that being a real strength - leaping, on the lead, able 1v1. Don't know how he tests but athletically I like his leap, can create space on the lead, agile. Clean without being freakish at ground level, wins enough of it contested where that side of his game has scope to develop. Has from game one in the TAC Cup after the AGSV season finished come in and looked like Dandenong's best forward from the get-go.

I'm a real fan of Sturt. He's probably not the freak athlete Rozee is and hasn't shown as Rozee has that scope to play in all three zones (fwd/mid/def). Rozee has scope to play so many roles, be it a pressure forward, shutdown defender, outside runner etc. Sturt also hasn't had that experience playing against state league competition. He's a terrific footballer though. Screams Will Hayward or perhaps a better version.

Do you think that Harry Taylor might be a good older player to provide leadership. It fills a need in defence after May leaves and he is definitely a respected leader at Geelong. This is all on the proviso that Geelong and Harry think it's a good idea for him.

He could be. Not sure how his body is going but if he can get it right, I'm sure there would be clubs who would love to have him.

Not sure why Geelong would want to move Taylor as he wouldn't attract anything - think Luke Hodge/Sam Mitchell trades given his age/stage in career having little left.

 

[Knightmare]

Gold Coast won't be asking for anything close to that.

They should be asking for a first round pick. Hall is one of their better 3-4 players. He's a high impact, high production, established player.

Per 20 games, he's a 500 disposal a year player. Not many of those with his pace and impact per possession.

He'll be a great get for North. He has another five years of good footy in him. That can be 100 games. That's worth (given I'm predicting North are a top 8 side in 2019) the first round pick. Even if Gold Coast have to add a sweetener to get that first round pick.

Gold Coast won't get that, but that's Hall's worth for mine. Very underrated.

 

[Heaps of fun]

They should be. Hall is one of their better 3-4 players. He's a high impact, high production, established player.

Per 20 games, he's a 500 disposal a year player. Not many of those with his pace and impact per possession.

He'll be a great get for North.

Yep. He has been undervalued and he'll walk for chips.

Very good post btw Knightmare. Really thought they should have grabbed Swallow last year. Perfect example of professionalism, lots of leadership experience and he to Queensland anyway.

 

[Knightmare]

Yep. He has been undervalued and he'll walk for chips.

Very good post btw Knightmare. Really thought they should have grabbed Swallow last year. Perfect example of professionalism, lots of leadership experience and he to Queensland anyway.

Absolutely. It's not even about his quality of play. Gold Coast need that Andrew Swallow and a few others like him for young player development. A winning team can't be built without those leaders among the playing group.

 

[Unique Name]

If we got 4 and 22 for Neale.

How likely is it that we could use them to pick up Izak Rankine and Ian Hill?

Any chance Ian Hill lasts that long?

 

[Knightmare]

If we got 4 and 22 for Neale.

How likely is it that we could use them to pick up Izak Rankine and Ian Hill?

Any chance Ian Hill lasts that long?

If Fremantle have that combination of picks, it's possible to get both Rankine and Hill.

I have Hill going around 20 in my upcoming phantom draft/s.

Rankine probably goes 3-6.

An incredible profit to make on Neale if Fremantle can get that deal done. Rankine I consider likely to have a better career than Neale. I feel the same of Smith if Rankine doesn't make it to that pick. And that's not knocking Neale. I know exactly how good Neale is at stoppages. It's just the pointy end this year is sensational and that 4-5 range is a sweet spot based on my evaluation of the talent this year anyway.

 

[6yearsold]

Hi mate,

can you tell us why you rated scrimshaw so highly?

i thought at the time he was a huge chance of being a bust.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi mate,

can you tell us why you rated scrimshaw so highly?

i thought at the time he was a huge chance of being a bust.

I didn't rate Scrimshaw all that high compared to where others had him, placing Scrimshaw at 14 in my power rankings in 2016 (went at pick 7 to Gold Coast).

He's a freak talent at 193cm with the best evasion and agility in the AFL. Does damage by foot and has the pace. So he's one where he had talent and is an attribute based recruiting choice. Will take some intercept marks.

Why I didn't rate Scrimshaw as highly as others is I didn't and still don't see a clear role for him. Probably half-back for Hawthorn he has a chance to be a Birchall replacement with their young player development better than Gold Coast's. Though he'll have to improve 1v1, become more accountable without losing that rebound and needs to improve the contested side of his game to become relevant even there.

 

[Gromma]

I didn't rate Scrimshaw all that high compared to where others had him, placing Scrimshaw at 14 in my power rankings in 2016 (went at pick 7 to Gold Coast).

He's a freak talent at 193cm with the best evasion and agility in the AFL. Does damage by foot and has the pace. So he's one where he had talent and is an attribute based recruiting choice. Will take some intercept marks.

Why I didn't rate Scrimshaw as highly as others is I didn't and still don't see a clear role for him. Probably half-back for Hawthorn he has a chance to be a Birchall replacement with their young player development better than Gold Coast's. Though he'll have to improve 1v1, become more accountable without losing that rebound and needs to improve the contested side of his game to become relevant even there.

Matthew Lloyd who coached him at Haileybury and AFL academy (knows a bit) said on trade radio Monday he is one of the best young players hes ever seen! Note: If your aim is to let readers know what the draft order is likely to be, you were unfortunately wrong.

If its a personal opinion, my guess is you spend a bit of time on this but not as much as Lloyd or recruiters who watch multiple games of his and hours of vision, interviewing players and family. If this is your aim, no disrespect but it means as much as the next guy.

If the former, Id suggest you get better connections (grin) as GC (originally pick 6, ) and Freo (pick 7) were always going to take him from about June of the draft year so how you got to 14 is interesting. Terry Wallace had him Pick 7/8 most of the year and so did Cal Twomey who were both correct.

Had Richmond not traded 10 for Prestia, they would have taken him too! Still like your posts though mate and your opinion is respected but you have to be a bit more realistic in this case IMO.

 

[Chris25]

I'm guessing Hawthorn are favourites to sign Scrimshaw?

 

[Knightmare]

Matthew Lloyd who coached him at Haileybury and AFL academy (knows a bit) said on trade radio Monday he is one of the best young players hes ever seen! Note: If your aim is to let readers know what the draft order is likely to be, you were unfortunately wrong.

If its a personal opinion, my guess is you spend a bit of time on this but not as much as Lloyd or recruiters who watch multiple games of his and hours of vision, interviewing players and family. If this is your aim, no disrespect but it means as much as the next guy. If the former, Id suggest you get better connections (grin) as GC (originally pick 6, ) and Freo (pick 7) were always going to take him from about June of the draft year so how you got to 14 is interesting. Terry Wallace had him Pick 7/8 most of the year and so did Cal Twomey who were both correct. Had Richmond not traded 10 for Prestia, they would have taken him too! Still like your posts though mate and your opinion is respected but you have to be a bit more realistic in this case IMO.

My power rankings relate to where I rate players and who I think will be better. Not which pick I see players featuring on draft day. My phantom draft is where I predict players will feature on draft day. They're two different things.

 

[Bicks]

I didn't rate Scrimshaw all that high compared to where others had him, placing Scrimshaw at 14 in my power rankings in 2016 (went at pick 7 to Gold Coast).

He's a freak talent at 193cm with the best evasion and agility in the AFL. Does damage by foot and has the pace. So he's one where he had talent and is an attribute based recruiting choice. Will take some intercept marks.

Why I didn't rate Scrimshaw as highly as others is I didn't and still don't see a clear role for him. Probably half-back for Hawthorn he has a chance to be a Birchall replacement with their young player development better than Gold Coast's. Though he'll have to improve 1v1, become more accountable without losing that rebound and needs to improve the contested side of his game to become relevant even there.

Agreed I always had ? on the contested side of his game, had everything else covered but.

 

[Gromma]

My power rankings relate to where I rate players and who I think will be better. Not which pick I see players featuring on draft day. My phantom draft is where I predict players will feature on draft day. They're two different things.

Ahh OK, thanks...always a good debate

 

[SumTingWong]

Who are a few mature age mids that could be drafted this year?

 

[Knightmare]

Who are a few mature age mids that could be drafted this year?

If you count overagers Mitch Podhajski (mostly TAC Cup though still 7 games for Coburg), Marcus Lentini (Coburg) and Luke Foley.

Otherwise:
NEAFL Mitch Maguire, Josh Clayton (outside)
WAFL Marlion Pickett, Haiden Schloithe, Jye Bolton
SANFL Mitch Grigg
VFL Michael Gibbons, Will Hayes (outside), Nick Hind (outside)

Are those I'm looking at as draftable as mids and draft chances.

I really like mature agers in general this year. I see nationally 20-30 state leaguers who could on the right list be best 22 players. Possibly a bit of a hint into what my draft board looks like this year, but being an 18 team competition now, I see the talent as being slightly diluted in the AFL and a lot of state leaguers who are outplaying their AFL listed counterparts.

The re-weighting of state leaguers on my draft board is largely this years evolution of my power rankings. I'm not necessarily rating more than 1 or 2 inside my top 30, but from 30-60, there are a lot I'd prefer over junior talent. And it's something going forward assuming the state league talent remains as strong as it is at the present time, something you'll continue to see that is different on my draft board to what others put out there.

 

[08elf]

If Fremantle have that combination of picks, it's possible to get both Rankine and Hill.

I have Hill going around 20 in my upcoming phantom draft/s.

Rankine probably goes 3-6.

An incredible profit to make on Neale if Fremantle can get that deal done. Rankine I consider likely to have a better career than Neale. I feel the same of Smith if Rankine doesn't make it to that pick. And that's not knocking Neale. I know exactly how good Neale is at stoppages. It's just the pointy end this year is sensational and that 4-5 range is a sweet spot based on my evaluation of the talent this year anyway.

Wow, that's huge raps on Rankine as Neale is very underrated and probably should've been All Australian a couple of years ago. Do you see him playing in the midfielder long term? Thought he was more in the Cyril mould.

 

[Knightmare]

Wow, that's huge raps on Rankine as Neale is very underrated and probably should've been All Australian a couple of years ago. Do you see him playing in the midfielder long term? Thought he was more in the Cyril mould.

Rankine is more a forward version of McLeod.

He'll find a lot more of it than Cyril and have a much greater impact offensively.

He's a guy who just flat out takes over games. You can play him on one team for a half and get that team out to a decisive lead, and switch to the other team and swing the momentum entirely. His impact is so great. And it doesn't matter where you play him.

He's so damaging forward, that I see Rankine playing forward a lot with those really damaging but consistent forwards hard to find, but he'll get plenty of midfield time also.

Not sure what that split might be, but 60/40 fwd/mid might be the best way to use him. Ultimately, you want to use him in both zones.

He gives you options. Half-forward, forward pocket, can go inside/outside through the midfield. Just depends on what you need in that moment and which part of the ground you need him taking over games.

He's a better talent than Wingard/H.Bennell as an even more influential force at his best. More influential than Michael Walters, more influential than Shane Edwards even. I could keep going.. But he's a special talent and if he goes to a good team that can get the best out of him. Watch out!

 

[DivideandMultiply]

Yep. He has been undervalued and he'll walk for chips.

Very good post btw Knightmare. Really thought they should have grabbed Swallow last year. Perfect example of professionalism, lots of leadership experience and he to Queensland anyway.

Will cost more than chips.

 

[Heaps of fun]

Will cost more than chips.

Gold Coast midfielder Aaron Hall's manager, James Pitcher, confirmed on Trade Radio his client would seek a trade to North Melbourne. It's believed the trade could be completed for North's fourth-round pick.

 

[Knightmare]

Gold Coast midfielder Aaron Hall's manager, James Pitcher, confirmed on Trade Radio his client would seek a trade to North Melbourne. It's believed the trade could be completed for North's fourth-round pick.

'Trust the process'?

A West Coast or Richmond could pretty easily offer their late second round picks in a Hall exchange. Or Geelong or Collingwood could offer their 2019 second round picks.

If clubs are going to let Hall walk to North Melbourne that cheaply they're not doing their jobs.

North can hand over pick 28 and it's still a good trade, though naturally with other offseason targets the cheaper the better from North's perspective.

Maybe clubs should be enquiring into Gold Coast's pick 2 since it only took Lachie Weller to get it last year.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

They should be asking for a first round pick. Hall is one of their better 3-4 players. He's a high impact, high production, established player.

Per 20 games, he's a 500 disposal a year player. Not many of those with his pace and impact per possession.

He'll be a great get for North. He has another five years of good footy in him. That can be 100 games. That's worth (given I'm predicting North are a top 8 side in 2019) the first round pick. Even if Gold Coast have to add a sweetener to get that first round pick.

Gold Coast won't get that, but that's Hall's worth for mine. Very underrated.

If he was really that valuable on-field do you think they'd be shopping him for a token pick? He's a one way runner with zero defensive ethic on an inflated salary - not exactly the example Dew wants for a developing group.

There's certainly a spot for him in a good team but not somewhere like Gold Coast, which makes it hard to get a good return.

 

[Heaps of fun]

'Trust the process'?

A West Coast or Richmond could pretty easily offer their late second round picks in a Hall exchange. Or Geelong or Collingwood could offer their 2019 second round picks.

If clubs are going to let Hall walk to North Melbourne that cheaply they're not doing their jobs.

North can hand over pick 28 and it's still a good trade, though naturally with other offseason targets the cheaper the better from North's perspective.

Maybe clubs should be enquiring into Gold Coast's pick 2 since it only took Lachie Weller to get it last year.

Other clubs aren't going to waste the energy of their recruiting staff at this time of year bidding on players that have already requested trades to specific clubs. Hall's out of contract anyway. Would just walk to the PSD.

 

[Knightmare]

If he was a valued leader do you think they'd be shopping him for a token pick? He's a one way runner with zero defensive ethic on an inflated salary - not exactly the example Dew wants for a developing group.

There's certainly a spot for him in a good team but not somewhere like Gold Coast, which makes it hard to get a good return.

Hall's value isn't as a leader. It's his on field performance and impact.

Gold Coast's selection policy throughout the season has been poor. They dropped their best player (Jarryd Lyons) more than once.

Other clubs aren't going to waste the energy of their recruiting staff at this time of year bidding on players that have already requested trades to specific clubs. Hall's out of contract anyway. Would just walk to the PSD.

Carlton would happily accept Hall as a freebie. Or they should if he was to talk into the PSD.

Adelaide, Essendon and Port Adelaide are some potentially good teams who would all love to pick up Hall through the PSD. Essendon particularly could really use him.

The trade period hasn't started yet, so there is still time to make the offer, or make the passing comment 'you can have our second for Hall.' Doesn't take much.

It wouldn't be the first or last time a club has taken a player out from under another team.

 

[Heaps of fun]

Hall's value isn't as a leader. It's his on field performance and impact.

Gold Coast's selection policy throughout the season has been poor. They dropped their best player (Jarryd Lyons) more than once.



Carlton would happily accept Hall as a freebie. Or they should if he was to talk into the PSD.

Adelaide, Essendon and Port Adelaide are some potentially good teams who would all love to pick up Hall through the PSD. Essendon particularly could really use him.

The trade period hasn't started yet, so there is still time to make the offer, or make the passing comment 'you can have our second for Hall.' Doesn't take much.

It wouldn't be the first or last time a club has taken a player out from under another team.

I reckon Brendon Bolton would prefer Rory Thompson on the wing than Hall. Nice fanfic but it's not happening.