Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Rankine is generational without question. On talent alone he could be anything. Like in the top ten all time. Not sure he ever fulfils his talent but if he does he is absolutely generational.

When I say generational, I'm talking a once in a generation, best in the competition player.

This past generation was Ablett, before that Buckley.

Lukosius has next (if he fulfils his potential and goes to a good team that can maximise his development).

Rankine can be a McLeod/S.Burgoyne calibre player if he fulfils his potential. I don't know if I'd call that generational. But they're all-time greats. Rankine has that scope to potentially become one himself or pretty close to.

I know I am this is the second time I have mentioned it but I loved S Sturt pre combine and now I think he could be one of the steals of the draft where ever he is taken. Kid has freakish D Menzel (pre knees) like ability despite being a little smaller.

Do you think Geelong could take him at 12?

I like Sturt a lot. In my phantom draft I had him going only a small few picks later to Hawthorn.

If Geelong want the best/most dangerous medium marking forward in the draft. That would be Sturt.

 

[foodles05]

When I say generational, I'm talking a once in a generation, best in the competition player.

This past generation was Ablett, before that Buckley.

Lukosius has next (if he fulfils his potential and goes to a good team that can maximise his development).

Rankine can be a McLeod/S.Burgoyne calibre player if he fulfils his potential. I don't know if I'd call that generational. But they're all-time greats. Rankine has that scope to potentially become one himself or pretty close to.



I like Sturt a lot. In my phantom draft I had him going only a small few picks later to Hawthorn.

If Geelong want the best/most dangerous medium marking forward in the draft. That would be Sturt.

I know this might sound ridiculous but I think he has more talent than both Macca and Silk. He can do all the things that McLeod and Burgoyne were capable of but add to that Eddie Betts/Cyril Rioli freakishness as well. Anyway we are talking at the top top end it is all very subjective. Over the last couple of year watching he and luko it has just been who makes you laugh next!

 

[goBlue]

Hey Knightmare, do you think Walsh is the best Midfielder on talent or just on the amount of work he has put in.

Also, what are the differences between Scully from GWS and Walsh, they seem quite similar in Weight/Height both endurance athletes and could rack up disposals in U18's. Im struggling to understand the rave about Walsh.

 

[HedgeFund]

Hey Knightmare, do you think Walsh is the best Midfielder on talent or just on the amount of work he has put in.

Also, what are the differences between Scully from GWS and Walsh, they seem quite similar in Weight/Height both endurance athletes and could rack up disposals in U18's. Im struggling to understand the rave about Walsh.

For the 100th time KM rates Bailey Smith equal to, or better than Walsh.

Don’t people read back over threads before asking the same question that’s been answered elsewhere?

 

[Knightmare]

I know this might sound ridiculous but I think he has more talent than both Macca and Silk. He can do all the things that McLeod and Burgoyne were capable of but add to that Eddie Betts/Cyril Rioli freakishness as well. Anyway we are talking at the top top end it is all very subjective. Over the last couple of year watching he and luko it has just been who makes you laugh next!

Perhaps more freakish at ground level, but he's a smaller guy. He won't be better. But if he fulfils his potential. He has the scope to be as good.

Hey Knightmare, do you think Walsh is the best Midfielder on talent or just on the amount of work he has put in.

Also, what are the differences between Scully from GWS and Walsh, they seem quite similar in Weight/Height both endurance athletes and could rack up disposals in U18's. Im struggling to understand the rave about Walsh.

I've felt from the start of the year that Bailey Smith is better and the best mid in this draft - better contested ball winner, better kick and more explosive.

Walsh I consider more suitable for selection around pick 3/4.

Scully isn't a bad comparison and Walsh could be something like what Scully was in 2016/2017, or a slightly better version. I don't look at Scully as being a bad career outcome necessarily. His upside is something more like Josh Kelly. Probably ends up something in-between.

He's a worthy pick 1. It's just with some of the other guys being so special in this draft, he wouldn't be my first choice this year.

 

[Eastcoasteagle]

How come their wasn't the team Judd vs team Enright this year?

 

[Knightmare]

How come their wasn't the team Judd vs team Enright this year?

I'm assuming you're referring to no U18 match the day before the Grand Final as we've had in previous years?

It was considered that the u18s commitments throughout the year was so heavy that it wasn't suitable.

A lot of the prospects were burnt out. Particularly the AIS boys.

 

[bl4ke]

Knightmare, at what pick would you expect Tim Kelly to go if he were in this draft?

 

[cairo tiger]

Hey km

Last year Richmond nearly fell over when jack Higgins was still available to them- what a steal- who do you think may be the 2 or 3 steals of this draft that others overlook for whatever reason that are still around at 20-23?

 

[Dez!]

Knightmare, if the Demons end up trading Hogan and getting 5 and 9/10 who do you think they'd target?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, at what pick would you expect Tim Kelly to go if he were in this draft?

Around 5. Lukosius/Walsh/M.King/Rankine are the players I expect would be favoured.

x2 first round picks or a top five pick from West Coast is what Geelong should be asking for.

Compensation received in return for the losses of Gaff (assuming he leaves) and Lycett should help make this possible if West Coast are motivated enough.

Hey km

Last year Richmond nearly fell over when jack Higgins was still available to them- what a steal- who do you think may be the 2 or 3 steals of this draft that others overlook for whatever reason that are still around at 20-23?

There is a whole group that are expected to go top 20 if any of Collier-Dawkins, Duursma, Caldwell, Stocker, C.Jones, Sturt make it into that range, they'd be those value choices.

Knightmare, if the Demons end up trading Hogan and getting 5 and 9/10 who do you think they'd target?

Great outcome if Melbourne can get both pick 5 and a pick 9 or 10. That's what Hogan should be worth, hopefully Fremantle pay up as they made Gold Coast do to acquire Weller last offseason.

A Rankine or Smith at 5/6 would represent great value. Ben King would be the other in the mix if Melbourne choose to go tall.

Around 9/10 there is a whole group of decent mids. Jackson Hately is one of the standouts who could be there. Otherwise one who has been consistent all year and completely sold me on his game during the finals is Xavier Duursma as a do it all inside/outside mid with the speed, skills but then has the contested side of his game good too.

 

[Squiba]

Around 5. Lukosius/Walsh/M.King/Rankine are the players I expect would be favoured.

x2 first round picks or a top five pick from West Coast is what Geelong should be asking for.

Compensation received in return for the losses of Gaff (assuming he leaves) and Lycett should help make this possible if West Coast are motivated enough.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you rate Kelly over Neale, then?

I agree on Duursma, having that blend of attributes in today's game is a big part of becoming a complete footballer in any side.

 

[Knightmare]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you rate Kelly over Neale, then?

I agree on Duursma, having that blend of attributes in today's game is a big part of becoming a complete footballer in any side.

Josh Kelly is better than Neale. That is correct. Isn't that a consensus call? Kelly isn't as strong stoppages (though still very capable) with the contested side of his game not as strong and not elite as Neale's is. But rear on everything else Kelly has Neale covered.

 

[Yoda_]

For the 100th time KM rates Bailey Smith equal to, or better than Walsh.

Don’t people read back over threads before asking the same question that’s been answered elsewhere?

Nope

People are lazy

 

[theGav56]

Nope

People are lazy

And Knightmare is incredibly patient.

 

[Squiba]

Josh Kelly is better than Neale. That is correct. Isn't that a consensus call? Kelly isn't as strong stoppages (though still very capable) with the contested side of his game not as strong and not elite as Neale's is. But rear on everything else Kelly has Neale covered.

I assumed the player in question was Tim Kelly.

Edit: Yeah just read back, he is talking about Tim Kelly of Geelong.

Josh Kelly >>>> Neale >> Tim Kelly imo

 

[ash84]

Knightmare, I'd be very happy with Collier-Dawkins.

Do you think the Crows would like to trade up to grab one of the SA boys in Lukosius, Rankine, Rozee?

 

[theGav56]

Great outcome if Melbourne can get both pick 5 and a pick 9 or 10. That's what Hogan should be worth, hopefully Fremantle pay up as they made Gold Coast do to acquire Weller last offseason.

Contradicting yourself here aren't you? Or are you saying Fremantle made GCSs pay what Weller was worth (pick 2)?

Anyway I can't see a scenario where we pay "unders" for a contracted player like Hogan. The best you can hope for is fair value. Most likely you pay top dollar.

In trading I think clubs should only ever pay what they think a player is worth, or they should sack the list manager. Weller was worth pick 2 to GCSs (top dollar), and not worth the later pick they were offering to Fremantle (slipped my mind what that was). They will get good service and loyalty from Weller, no doubt about that.

 

[theGav56]

Knightmare, I'd be very happy with Collier-Dawkins.

Do you think the Crows would like to trade up to grab one of the SA boys in Lukosius, Rankine, Rozee?

I am hoping they do. It would certainly be tempting to have 2 of Clark/Hately/Hill instead of Rankine or Rozee (both terrific players). I am sure other clubs will be tempted too.

 

[HedgeFund]

And Knightmare is incredibly patient.

 

[Knightmare]

I assumed the player in question was Tim Kelly.

Edit: Yeah just read back, he is talking about Tim Kelly of Geelong.

Josh Kelly >>>> Neale >> Tim Kelly imo

Tim Kelly is seriously good.

I have Neale slightly ahead of Kelly, but not by much. Neale is the much more accomplished stoppage player, but Kelly is the more damaging player and still finds a lot of it.

Both this year I consider to be worth pick 5 if in this draft, with Lukosius/Smith/Walsh/Rankine/M.King players I'd prefer to have. I'd take Neale ahead of Blakey/B.King and I'd be tempted to say the same of Kelly though that's debatable with Kelly, who could be argued worth pick 6/7 just as easily.

With those top 5, I see all those guys as potential pick 1s in any given year. After that top 5 from my draft board, Blakey/B.King are the potential but not certain elites.

Knightmare, I'd be very happy with Collier-Dawkins.

Do you think the Crows would like to trade up to grab one of the SA boys in Lukosius, Rankine, Rozee?

It will depend on the price, but I suggest they'll be enquiring. It's a great draft to be involved in, particularly with all the top end SA talent and they've got the picks to potentially move up.

Contradicting yourself here aren't you? Or are you saying Fremantle made GCSs pay what Weller was worth (pick 2)?

Anyway I can't see a scenario where we pay "unders" for a contracted player like Hogan. The best you can hope for is fair value. Most likely you pay top dollar.

In trading I think clubs should only ever pay what they think a player is worth, or they should sack the list manager. Weller was worth pick 2 to GCSs (top dollar), and not worth the later pick they were offering to Fremantle (slipped my mind what that was). They will get good service and loyalty from Weller, no doubt about that.

Weller isn't worth pick 2 and wasn't last offseason. He's a good footballer, but not someone I'd have paid a top 10 pick for and that time and still wouldn't now.

He would have fit in at 14 on my draft board last year for perspective.

I don't dispute that Weller has the capacity to give Gold Coast good service. He is durable playing 22 games each of the past three seasons now. He provides run and carry and finds enough of it. But is very outside and can turns over the footy more than he should by position. He's more a component to a team than a star or focal point.

Last years draft didn't have any projected transcendent top end stars, but there was still a solid enough number of players where giving up such an early pick was entirely inappropriate in Gold Coast's position.

That top 13 of Rayner/LDU/Cerra/Dow/D.Fogarty/Balta/Naughton/Brayshaw/Higgins/Clark/Stephenson (would have been 6th if not for heart health questionmark)/Bailey/Coffield I viewed as having the scope to all be better than Weller and they all still have that scope to surpass him.

Hogan by contrast is one of the best key forwards in the game and still likely has 10 years ahead of him. He would have been worth pick one in last years draft and I'd rate him behind only Lukosius in this draft.

 

[Bicks]

Knightmare
A few Adelaide supporters think it's time we added a developable KPD to our list via the draft, I've quite liked Kyle Reid when I've seen him play and wouldn't mind picking him up later in the draft. Looked reasonably mobile and quite athletic and certainly strong in the air but have hardly heard his name mentioned since the Championships. Where do you see his draft range?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare
A few Adelaide supporters think it's time we added a developable KPD to our list via the draft, I've quite liked Kyle Reid when I've seen him play and wouldn't mind picking him up later in the draft. Looked reasonably mobile and quite athletic and certainly strong in the air but have hardly heard his name mentioned since the Championships. Where do you see his draft range?

Won't come under consideration until the second half of the day. Late/rookie for Reid.

Firmly in the draft mix, but no certainty to get picked.

 

[Lilzab]

Hello, this has probably been answered/discussed but I generally don’t follow the draft very closely. Where is bailey smith most likely to end up?

 

[theGav56]

Hello, this has probably been answered/discussed but I generally don’t follow the draft very closely. Where is bailey smith most likely to end up?

Looks a likely sort for pick 4/5, and Fremantle would certainly see him as a Neale replacement.
CARLTON; Walsh
GCS; Lukosius
GCS; Rankine/Rozee,
SAINTS; M King
FREO; Smith/Rankine/Rozee.

But in terms of who will actually hold those picks, it is early days.