Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

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weltschmerz said:
Who comes in for Valente in your Fantasy side? Guessing someone like JHF or Ward?
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I've made some changes since that first team I put together. Daicos, Ward, Hobbs and Clark are now my rookies in Fantasy, as in Supercoach.

Dominic03 said:
Jarrod Witts? Lol. Don't pick that many mid pricers mate, please it hurts.

And why so much bench money!!
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Witts can average 95-100.

I don't see a premium aside from Grundy who will hold their value. Gawn I expect to be on the downside and see further reduced ruck minutes to Jackson, Meek if he becomes a regular this year may share the ruck duties with Darcy which could see him regress also. Bailey Williams probably starts playing more for West Coast to lessen the load on Nic Nat. So I'm not seeing another ruck other than Grundy I want for the full season. I'd feel much more comfortable trading for a higher scoring ruckman who probably dips below Witts' price.

COVID and value in pricey rookies and grossly underpriced mid-priced is why I have money is on the bench. I'm no virologist, but I anticipate further variants to emerge and for lots of games to be missed due to illness, and a lot of last minute outs that won't be possible to plan for, and as a casual who doesn't check the weekly ins/outs probably is the safer way for me to play to ensure I don't get zeros.
 
Knightmare said:
I've made some changes since that first team I put together. Daicos, Ward, Hobbs and Clark are now my rookies in Fantasy, as in Supercoach.



Witts can average 95-100.

I don't see a premium aside from Grundy who will hold their value. Gawn I expect to be on the downside and see further reduced ruck minutes to Jackson, Meek if he becomes a regular this year may share the ruck duties with Darcy which could see him regress also. Bailey Williams probably starts playing more for West Coast to lessen the load on Nic Nat. So I'm not seeing another ruck other than Grundy I want for the full season. I'd feel much more comfortable trading for a higher scoring ruckman who probably dips below Witts' price.

COVID and value in pricey rookies and grossly underpriced mid-priced is why I have money is on the bench. I'm no virologist, but I anticipate further variants to emerge and for lots of games to be missed due to illness, and a lot of last minute outs that won't be possible to plan for, and as a casual who doesn't check the weekly ins/outs probably is the safer way for me to play to ensure I don't get zeros.
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Witts would have to be lucky to score that much, i have him down for more like 80 odd. 90 if you're absolutely lucky. Darcy is the option i have way ahead who will score 110+, won't share with Meek, Meek probably gonna be lucky to get enough games to be an issue (Ask a Freo fan about games) but in terms of the ruck load no chance of it being a big drop if at all. Darcy's injuries are an issue, but Witts is that cheap because of injuries which is kinda pointless in using that as an argument.

Grundy/Darcy premiums, Gawn also but idk with him and Jackson.

I do not like the mid pricers, never have and never will. Unless they are someone who will play in a friendly role or aren't grossly injury prone. Caldwell is just a big no from one of your many mid price madnesses.
 
Dominic03 said:
Witts would have to be lucky to score that much, i have him down for more like 80 odd. 90 if you're absolutely lucky. Darcy is the option i have way ahead who will score 110+, won't share with Meek, Meek probably gonna be lucky to get enough games to be an issue (Ask a Freo fan about games) but in terms of the ruck load no chance of it being a big drop if at all. Darcy's injuries are an issue, but Witts is that cheap because of injuries which is kinda pointless in using that as an argument.

Grundy/Darcy premiums, Gawn also but idk with him and Jackson.

I do not like the mid pricers, never have and never will. Unless they are someone who will play in a friendly role or aren't grossly injury prone. Caldwell is just a big no from one of your many mid price madnesses.
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Why so low for Witts? He averaged 99.7 in 2019, and has also averaged 94.3 (2017) and 93.4 (2020). And it's not like he'll have anyone to share ruck minutes with.

I'm not sure for durability why you're much more bullish on Darcy either. Last year (21 games) is the first year Darcy has played more than 15 games in a season. I'm not sure with Witts on the other hand where the incorrect narrative of him lacking durability comes from. From 2018-2020 he didn't miss a single game. When Witts played for Collingwood, he wasn't playing every week because Collingwood didn't believe in a Grundy/Witts pairing.

On Meek, the reports I've heard, and at this time of preseason I'm not all that interested, but I've been hearing he has at ruck contests not just held his own with Darcy, but largely broken even, so he's a competitive ruckman and one of those where if he doesn't get regular senior opportunities in 2022, I'd be at the trade table making a play for him on the cheap if I could and needed a genuine #1 ruckman.
 
Knightmare said:
Why so low for Witts? He averaged 99.7 in 2019, and has also averaged 94.3 (2017) and 93.4 (2020). And it's not like he'll have anyone to share ruck minutes with.

I'm not sure for durability why you're much more bullish on Darcy either. Last year (21 games) is the first year Darcy has played more than 15 games in a season. I'm not sure with Witts on the other hand where the incorrect narrative of him lacking durability comes from. From 2018-2020 he didn't miss a single game. When Witts played for Collingwood, he wasn't playing every week because Collingwood didn't believe in a Grundy/Witts pairing.

On Meek, the reports I've heard, and at this time of preseason I'm not all that interested, but I've been hearing he has at ruck contests not just held his own with Darcy, but largely broken even, so he's a competitive ruckman and one of those where if he doesn't get regular senior opportunities in 2022, I'd be at the trade table making a play for him on the cheap if I could and needed a genuine #1 ruckman.
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Witts is coming off a big injury, he’s also 30. He isn’t that class that can come back and do super well imo.

Darcy played 21 last year. Witts 3. Form matters aswell. I would rather risk for a lot more scoring than have someone who won’t score aswell and who has also got an opportunity to get injured.

Yeah don’t agree with that. Darcy will be the no1 man and take a lot of the ruck duties. Meek will likely be lucky to play games.
 
Dominic03 said:
Witts is coming off a big injury, he’s also 30. He isn’t that class that can come back and do super well imo.

Darcy played 21 last year. Witts 3. Form matters aswell. I would rather risk for a lot more scoring than have someone who won’t score aswell and who has also got an opportunity to get injured.

Yeah don’t agree with that. Darcy will be the no1 man and take a lot of the ruck duties. Meek will likely be lucky to play games.
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Ruckmen tend to last into their 30s. It's not retirement age/retirement home stuff. It's generally those who were early picks and had extensive AFL exposure early career who break down in their late 20s and are no good at 30.

I've got Witts going for roughly 95 this year in Supercoach and I'm not expecting any games missed.

As a worst case scenario as I see it, Witts goes for 85 this year.

I'm strongly considering pivoting towards a Grundy/Preuss/Hayes grouping if Preuss is looking good, as I'm not convinced by either Gawn, Darcy or Nic Nat.
 
Knightmare said:
I've made some changes since that first team I put together. Daicos, Ward, Hobbs and Clark are now my rookies in Fantasy, as in Supercoach.



Witts can average 95-100.

I don't see a premium aside from Grundy who will hold their value. Gawn I expect to be on the downside and see further reduced ruck minutes to Jackson, Meek if he becomes a regular this year may share the ruck duties with Darcy which could see him regress also. Bailey Williams probably starts playing more for West Coast to lessen the load on Nic Nat. So I'm not seeing another ruck other than Grundy I want for the full season. I'd feel much more comfortable trading for a higher scoring ruckman who probably dips below Witts' price.

COVID and value in pricey rookies and grossly underpriced mid-priced is why I have money is on the bench. I'm no virologist, but I anticipate further variants to emerge and for lots of games to be missed due to illness, and a lot of last minute outs that won't be possible to plan for, and as a casual who doesn't check the weekly ins/outs probably is the safer way for me to play to ensure I don't get zeros.
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A fringe ruck doing well in a practice match against a locked in ruck is nice but not compelling. Meek has consistently improved, but the suggestions that he is on a par with Darcy are ambitious.

Fremantle have question marks surrounding Lobb beyond this season so Meek has a reasonable pathway to a best 22 position.
 
theGav56 said:
A fringe ruck doing well in a practice match against a locked in ruck is nice but not compelling. Meek has consistently improved, but the suggestions that he is on a par with Darcy are ambitious.

Fremantle have question marks surrounding Lobb beyond this season so Meek has a reasonable pathway to a best 22 position.
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If Darcy and Meek are playing together this year, what do you believe the ruck split would be?
 
Knightmare said:
If Darcy and Meek are playing together this year, what do you believe the ruck split would be?
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We wouldn't play both + Lobb. So either Lobb is injured (or the club has decided he is not part of the future), or Meek has forced their hand with form. Meek has kicked goals in the scratchies.

Structurally Longmuir likes a forward/ruck. It's difficult to know how that would work with Darcy and Meek, but my guesstimate is:

Darcy 50-60% ruck 30% forward
Meek 40% ruck 40% forward

The remaining forward time without the ruck/forward, possibly with Cox swinging forward. From pre-season reports we need to find a place for Chapman, and Hamling appears to have recovered from the ankle, so it will be interesting.
 
Could I single-handedly replace a club’s recruiting department?

An idea inspired by Pie 4 Life

Looking to see how I stack up from inception v Gold Coast and GWS

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8wbLj9Whuk&ab_channel=AFLDraftExpert

For some quick spoilers. Brodie Grundy, Ben Brown and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti would have been a Sun or Giant respectively had I been the selector. Can GWS or Gold Coast overcome these names?

Point of discussion: Did I beat both Gold Coast and GWS?
Also interested as a second point of discussion if people agree with my thoughts explained in the video around both clubs in their early years and the disadvantages they faced which can't be blamed on their recruiters?
 

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Supercoach rookie structuring in 2022.

The structure I have and the players I've picked.

Spoiler: 3-4 rookies up forward and back is the way to go this year given the poor rookie prices options across both lines.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBHFm_kw6qg

Point of discussion: In the coming weeks I'm planning a Supercoach draft with some of the other YouTubers. Interested to hear for draft formats who people would take first this year.
 
Knightmare said:
Supercoach rookie structuring in 2022.

The structure I have and the players I've picked.

Spoiler: 3-4 rookies up forward and back is the way to go this year given the poor rookie prices options across both lines.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBHFm_kw6qg

Point of discussion: In the coming weeks I'm planning a Supercoach draft with some of the other YouTubers. Interested to hear for draft formats who people would take first this year.
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Why have you got 4 rookies on your field who won't start round 1? Hinge, McDonagh, McCartin and Maginness are unlikely to get a game, and Ward is no certainty. Soon as I saw your team, I didn't bother watching the rest.

What's your record in Fantasy? I've been listening to podcasts of guys who have finished top 100, and given the lack of rookie talent in the backs and forwards, they've gone with 1 rookie in each of these lines. And given the lack of quality forwards, they've stacked their forward line.
 
dee64 said:
Why have you got 4 rookies on your field who won't start round 1? Hinge, McDonagh, McCartin and Maginness are unlikely to get a game, and Ward is no certainty. Soon as I saw your team, I didn't bother watching the rest.

What's your record in Fantasy? I've been listening to podcasts of guys who have finished top 100, and given the lack of rookie talent in the backs and forwards, they've gone with 1 rookie in each of these lines. And given the lack of quality forwards, they've stacked their forward line.
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I'm a casual. I pop up during the preseason to provide knowledge others are not as informed on.

Moreira's Magic is who you should be listening to if you're after the best fantasy opinions.

The purpose of my video is to educate people on structuring a team and share the knowledge that minimal forward and defence rookies should be selected, which I'm sure going off of the players you're troubled by seeing in my team you should also immediately get a feel for.

For those who took the time to listen on, or heard my opinions at any point, they will be well aware I'm not all that hot on very many forwards or defenders. If you bothered to read the note which was shown from the start of the video through until the end, I mentioned 3-4 forward and back rookies is the only viable structure. For those who go heavier on rookies than that, they're going to get wrecked.

I see no reason Hinge/McDonagh/Maginness can't line up round one. I'd imagine they would all be in the mix if not round one, then during the year. McDonagh I'm very keen on in particular and he's one I'll continue to alert people to if/when he receives opportunities.

McCartin is there for a DPP link and with how undersized Sydney's defence is, he's one where I wouldn't discount him either if he looks good during the preseason. His VFL play in defence was good last year and of a level where again, I'm not going to discount him for games.

If Hawthorn aren't playing Ward in round one that's a blunder at the selection table. It means another rookie midfielder can come in for him in a Supercoach/Fantasy context if he isn't selected, but with such a vanilla midfield, Hawthorn need Ward in there not just to get games into their best young midfielder, but also for midfield balance to introduce some more speed and skill through there, without need to compromise on ball winning or accumulation. Given Mitchell is believed to be committed to playing youth and giving them early and regular opportunities, there is no world where Ward not being a round one starter makes any sense aside from injury. Ward by year's end should be a consensus top-22 player on Hawthorn's list, and my personal expectation is top-18 or better, even assuming a fully healthy list.
 
dee64 said:
Why have you got 4 rookies on your field who won't start round 1? Hinge, McDonagh, McCartin and Maginness are unlikely to get a game, and Ward is no certainty. Soon as I saw your team, I didn't bother watching the rest.

What's your record in Fantasy? I've been listening to podcasts of guys who have finished top 100, and given the lack of rookie talent in the backs and forwards, they've gone with 1 rookie in each of these lines. And given the lack of quality forwards, they've stacked their forward line.
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Sorry mate.

McDonagh yeah i'd say probably wont but could, McCartin no idea, Maginness will be a chance at a game very early has been very good this pre season.

Ward is almost a certainty. No idea where you get any other idea from.
 
Is there another McDonagh or are you talking about Garrett McDonagh at Essendon?
 
Knightmare said:
I'm a casual. I pop up during the preseason to provide knowledge others are not as informed on.

Moreira's Magic is who you should be listening to if you're after the best fantasy opinions.

The purpose of my video is to educate people on structuring a team and share the knowledge that minimal forward and defence rookies should be selected, which I'm sure going off of the players you're troubled by seeing in my team you should also immediately get a feel for.

For those who took the time to listen on, or heard my opinions at any point, they will be well aware I'm not all that hot on very many forwards or defenders. If you bothered to read the note which was shown from the start of the video through until the end, I mentioned 3-4 forward and back rookies is the only viable structure. For those who go heavier on rookies than that, they're going to get wrecked.

I see no reason Hinge/McDonagh/Maginness can't line up round one. I'd imagine they would all be in the mix if not round one, then during the year. McDonagh I'm very keen on in particular and he's one I'll continue to alert people to if/when he receives opportunities.

McCartin is there for a DPP link and with how undersized Sydney's defence is, he's one where I wouldn't discount him either if he looks good during the preseason. His VFL play in defence was good last year and of a level where again, I'm not going to discount him for games.

If Hawthorn aren't playing Ward in round one that's a blunder at the selection table. It means another rookie midfielder can come in for him in a Supercoach/Fantasy context if he isn't selected, but with such a vanilla midfield, Hawthorn need Ward in there not just to get games into their best young midfielder, but also for midfield balance to introduce some more speed and skill through there, without need to compromise on ball winning or accumulation. Given Mitchell is believed to be committed to playing youth and giving them early and regular opportunities, there is no world where Ward not being a round one starter makes any sense aside from injury. Ward by year's end should be a consensus top-22 player on Hawthorn's list, and my personal expectation is top-18 or better, even assuming a fully healthy list.
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I've been playing in a fantasy cash league for over 10 years, and your starting team is woeful. The ideal structure is to have only 1-2 forward and back rookies in your starting lineup, and a maximum of 5 in total.

You don't field rookies just because they may get a game or a DPP. They have to be fantasy relevant. In no universe is Paddy McCartin fantasy relevant. The same applies to Matt Hinge. I'd be staggered if McDonagh gets selected for the Bombers in rd 1 given how much depth they have in defence and midfield.

Maginness and Ward may get selected in rd 1, but I'm only interested in players who are guaranteed midfield time. Based on how they finished last year, I don't think that initially Mitchell will be full on with playing kids. They currently have a deep midfield rotation (Titch, O'Meara, Shiels, Worpel, Wingard, Newcombe, Nash) so for Maginness, Ward and Connor MacDonald to press for rd 1 selection, someone has to miss out. Ward has been in and out of my team, but I'll wait to see how many stoppages he attends in the preseason games before I consider him.
 
dee64 said:
I've been playing in a fantasy cash league for over 10 years, and your starting team is woeful. The ideal structure is to have only 1-2 forward and back rookies in your starting lineup, and a maximum of 5 in total.

You don't field rookies just because they may get a game or a DPP. They have to be fantasy relevant. In no universe is Paddy McCartin fantasy relevant. The same applies to Matt Hinge. I'd be staggered if McDonagh gets selected for the Bombers in rd 1 given how much depth they have in defence and midfield.

Maginness and Ward may get selected in rd 1, but I'm only interested in players who are guaranteed midfield time. Based on how they finished last year, I don't think that initially Mitchell will be full on with playing kids. They currently have a deep midfield rotation (Titch, O'Meara, Shiels, Worpel, Wingard, Newcombe, Nash) so for Maginness, Ward and Connor MacDonald to press for rd 1 selection, someone has to miss out. Ward has been in and out of my team, but I'll wait to see how many stoppages he attends in the preseason games before I consider him.
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You mean to say you would only have 5 total rookies between your forwards and backs? You'll be going very heavily into mid-pricers, and that's unlikely to leave you with many keepers.

I'm likely to hold my 2 field and 2 bench rookies in both my front and back halves, though I'm considering making one of those forwards and backs respectively into $200-300k alternatives, and that would come down to a Will Brodie/Charlie Curnow or someone else impressing in a big way.

McCartin wasn't a viable fantasy or supercoach scorer when he played as a key forward, but for those who bothered to watch him in the VFL last year, he was finding the footy and racking up the points. In his games in defence, and one was injury impacted, but the other three he scored 85, 85 and 115. With 27d and 11m in that round 13 game v Footscray his best. If he plays forward, I complete agree, there is no fantasy relevance, but in defence, assuming that's where he lines up, as that has become his best position, he's someone I'm considering given how poor the scoring scope and unlikely it is we see a lot of those with greater scoring upside is.

Mitch Hinge in his only 2020 match scored a 102SC. Then 2021 he was selected in round one, but suffered during that game a season ending injury which makes him heavily discounted in price. Adelaide are poor on the outside and while I haven't followed Seedsman's status, I imagine there would still be questions around his health around concussion risk. If Seedsman misses, I'm not sure who keeps Hinge out, and if Seedsman is healthy, similarly, Hinge if his preseason has been good should be firmly in the selection mix I would have thought.

I seem to be McDonagh's only fan from the discussions I've had with people online, but I would personally be playing him and using him as the designated kicker as much as possible from defence. In the way of work by foot and drive from defence, Essendon don't have better than McDonagh and for kickouts he's far better than any of Essendon's other defenders. I'm just interested to see come preseason whether we see him and if so whether he's used properly and from there firming for round one. I'd play him alongside Ridley, Hind, Heppell and Kelly. I see things simply in defence, Ridley is there to intercept with freedom, Hind to take on the game with his run, Heppell to lead the defence and Kelly to shutdown with McDonagh there for kickouts and to generate the most meaningful drive by foot as Essendon's Daniel Rich equivalent, if he's to be correctly utilised.

On Maginness, I'm expecting he plays more forward and rotates up through the midfield than being a pure midfielder. We'll have to see whether he's best-22. He's one at this point who will have to work to earn that spot. Ward I expect to play from round 1 as a midfielder. MacDonald I'd be surprised to see round one, but during the year he could with good play in the VFL earn opportunities is my thinking. And he's one fantasy football coaches should have on their radar and consider for a bench position then as he's another midfielder who can find the footy in bunches and score well.

My score projections and player profiles of all first year players are included in Moreira's Magic season guide for those seeking that insight.
 
McDonagh unlikely to get games without injury IMO.

Back 6 will be: Kellly, Stewart, Hind, Laverde, Ridley, Heppell. Depth of Redman and Cutler currently ahead of him based on preseason form. Also been rotating Merrett and McGrath through too.

Sneaky starters for us might be Nic Martin and Tex Wanganeen who we haven’t signed yet. Martins killed 7 in two intraclubs off a wing and Tex has been creative with 4, likely to slot in for Tippa early.
 
Knightmare said:
You mean to say you would only have 5 total rookies between your forwards and backs? You'll be going very heavily into mid-pricers, and that's unlikely to leave you with many keepers.
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Firstly, I play Fantasy Classic, but the strategies still apply to Supercoach, though some or your players maybe more Supercoach relevant.

Correct, I have 5 rookies plus Joel Hamling who is basement price, starting on my field. And no, I only have 1 genuine mid-pricer in George Hewitt.

There are plenty of forwards and mids who have enormous fantasy upside, and have the potential to be premiums (keepers). In the backs, there are quite a few mid-pricers who represent value, and could be a stepping stone to a premium keeper.

Without going through the players, because my team changes almost daily based on training reports, this is likely to be my structure:

Backs - 3 Uber Premiums (keepers), 1 mid-pricer, 1 mature basement pricer, 1 Rookie.

Mids - 2 Uber Premiums, 3 Premiums (potential keepers) 3 Rookies

Rucks - 2 Uber Premiums

Forwards - 1 Uber Premium, 4 Premiums, 1 Rookie

My bench is made up of players at the basement price.
 
dee64 said:
Firstly, I play Fantasy Classic, but the strategies still apply to Supercoach, though some or your players maybe more Supercoach relevant.

Correct, I have 5 rookies plus Joel Hamling who is basement price, starting on my field. And no, I only have 1 genuine mid-pricer in George Hewitt.

There are plenty of forwards and mids who have enormous fantasy upside, and have the potential to be premiums (keepers). In the backs, there are quite a few mid-pricers who represent value, and could be a stepping stone to a premium keeper.

Without going through the players, because my team changes almost daily based on training reports, this is likely to be my structure:

Backs - 3 Uber Premiums (keepers), 1 mid-pricer, 1 mature basement pricer, 1 Rookie.

Mids - 2 Uber Premiums, 3 Premiums (potential keepers) 3 Rookies

Rucks - 2 Uber Premiums

Forwards - 1 Uber Premium, 4 Premiums, 1 Rookie

My bench is made up of players at the basement price.
Click to expand...

Your structure fits the structure I recommended in my video, which is either 1-2 rookie priced forwards and defenders can be fielded, fitting precisely into what you have there, with your two fielded in defence and one up forward. Beyond that, how many uber premiums, premiums or mid-pricers people start with I'm not advising on.

Is it more-so the $ I have sitting on my bench that troubles you in my Supercoach you're not a fan of?

For AFL Fantasy, like you, I currently hold just the one rookie forward on my field and the two defence rookies fielded under $200k, though I do have one less rookie midfielder fielded.

In AFL Fantasy I have one of the top-10 picks on my midfield bench and more mid-pricers, with one in the mids and an extra in defence and up front. If Rowell doesn't stack up (I don't see why he can't average 90+ if he's injury free) then that's easy moving another of those top-10 picks into my starting midfield and switch something else around to make the money work.

Ultimately I'm playing the game of maximising the $ generation in each position and looking at the best possible combination of underpriced players in each position, with this as things stand how I see that working best for me pending preseason matches where I see them all in action.
 
Can the AFL Draft Expert convert his expertise across to Supercoach Draft?

Supercoach Draft 2022 with YouTube's best Supercoach players:
Pick order:
1. eno:

2. SCInsider100:

3. AFL Draft Expert:

4. Spill's Lethals:

5. DRsRustySpoons:

6. jords terror squad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9j2fwSyiAI

Point of discussion: Pick your winner.
 

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Quick question KM. Saints midfield is falling by the day (pretty slim anyway) Coff gone for the season, Clarke gone for minimum first month and not sure when Jones will be back. What are you options on bytel and Byrnes? Can they step up? Think Owens might be in there earlier than we thought
 
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